Each team has 30-34 games remaining in the 2021 MLB season. I’m very impatient and wrote my first MLB playoff picture piece way back on May 23. My 2nd playoff preview was published on July 6th.
The Yankees, Rays, and Braves are playing inspired baseball right now while the Giants and Dodgers each keep winning! Can the Padres outlast Cincinnati? Can Toronto or Seattle sneak their way into a crowded AL Wild Card race?
With the balance of power shifting and the level of play increasing after the 2021 MLB trade deadline, today’s look at the 2021 playoffs will be the most accurate and thorough baseball breakdown to date.
Which Playoff Format is the MLB Using in 2021?
The 162-game regular season grind is baseball’s calling card but the postseason is what sports are all about. If you aren’t thinking about postseason implications while advancing through the regular season, you aren’t getting the full experience.
In a confusing twist, the MLB is ditching the one-year-experiment of the 16-team postseason in favor of the traditional 10-team bracket in use from 2012-2019. Experts around the league believe we will adopt the 16-team bracket permanently in the 2022 season under the new CBA.
So for one final season (most likely), the MLB playoffs will be the toughest bracket to crack in any of the 4 major pro sports. It normally takes 87 or 88 wins to secure a spot with just 5 teams in each league making the postseason – and many more than that to win a division and avoid the one-game Wild Card play in.
To give my analysis quantitative data, I cite FiveThirtyEight often. Their MLB Prediction tools are fun to play around with and extremely insightful. FiveThirtyEight has a simulation feature which runs the end of the season 100,000 times and gives the percentages that a given team makes the playoffs, wins their division, or wins the World Series.
Several factors determine a team’s shot of qualifying for postseason baseball – including current record, remaining strength of schedule, health of star players, and strength of division. All 30 MLB teams (even the Orioles) are still mathematically alive with 30 games to go and will be getting a break down. Let’s get started!
American League Division and Wild Card Races
Here is a look at the hypothetical American League postseason bracket if the season ended after the previous write-up (on July 6th).
Things have changed a bit in the American League over the past 2 months. 8 week prior we were in awe at how well the Red Sox were playing despite nobody picking them to win the East this season.
Today, the Rays and Yankees rule the East while Boston is doggy-paddling furiously just to remain above Oakland and Seattle in the for the 2nd Wild Card spot.
Here is the American League postseason bracket if the MLB season ended today.
The 2nd Wild Card spot in the American League is not a position anyone wants if they can help it as it is overwhelmingly likely that the top Wild Card will be either the Yankees or the Rays.
It is much more likely that the New York Yankees become the top Wild Card. You know skipper Aaron Boone will do everything in his power to make sure Gerrit Cole pitches that game. Having to face the best pitcher in the American League in the Bronx in a must-win game is not a good strategy for reaching the World Series.
The task becomes a little bit easier if Cole can’t go, forcing Jordan Montgomery or Andrew Heaney to pitch a big game. New York’s lineup is so deadly – especially at home – that they would still be the favored team without Cole on the mound.
The Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox still each lead their respective divisions. The Astros are 5 1/2 games ahead of Oakland while Chicago has all but locked up the AL Central with a 10-game lead over the Cleveland Indians who are right at .500 with just 34 games to go.
Behind Boston in the American League Wild Card race is Oakland. Oakland has a good enough record to give themselves 2 paths to the postseason. The Athletics are still on the outskirts of striking distance in their own division – just 5.5 games behind the Houston Astros.
It is more likely that Oakland will contend for a Wild Card. The A’s have clinched a Wild Card berth in each of the past 3 seasons.
The Seattle Mariners have cooled down a touch but are still not out. The M’s are 2 games behind Oakland which puts them 4 1/2 games back of Boston for that 2nd Wild Card spot in the American League.
The Mariners have no shortage of obstacles this season – battling on-field opponents while navigating the questionable moves by the front office. No one can doubt the resilience of Seattle’s ball club.
The Toronto Blue Jays boast the American League’s best offense with 22-year-old Vladimir Guerrero Jr. anchoring the club at 1st base. Toronto is 1 game behind Seattle and 5 1/2 back of Boston in the Wild Card chase. A hot month of September could propel Toronto into the promised land.
No one is questioning the Blue Jays ability to hit baseball, but pitching wins games in September and October. Can the Blue Jays string together enough good starts to consistently rack up wins? That is the question of the day in Canada.
With just a single-digit deficit entering the last month of the season, Cleveland is still technically in the playoff race but it would take a miracle for the Tribe to overtake all the teams ahead of them in the American League Wild Card race.
Neither avenue to the postseason (division or WC) is very clear for Cleveland. The Indians could either erase a 10-game deficit to Chicago in the Central or leapfrog 4 separate teams and a 9-game deficit in the Wild Card chase.
It is no wonder that FiveThirtyEight projections do not even give Cleveland a 1% chance of reaching the postseason. Things are looking pretty grim in our nation’s worst state (which is an objective fact). You know the Indians wanted a good 2021 season to put their team name to rest in style. Instead, this is the baseball equivalent of shooting a wounded horse.
American League Playoff and World Series Equities
AL East
Tampa Bay Rays 82-48
538 Playoff%: >99%
538 Division Title%: 75%
538 Championship%: 13%
Path to Postseason: The Rays are in the top spot in the American League. They need to outlast New York for the division and keep pace ahead of Houston and Chicago for the 1 seed.
New York Yankees 76-54
538 Playoff%: 98%
538 Division Title%: 23%
538 Championship%: 10%
Path to Postseason: New York is amazingly only 6 back of Tampa for the AL East lead after a horrendous start to 2021. The Yankees control the top Wild Card spot in the AL by 2 games over Boston.
Boston Red Sox 75-57
538 Playoff%: 73%
538 Division Title%: 2%
538 Championship%: 2%
Path to Postseason: Boston has watched their division lead evaporate and are now 2.5 games up on Oakland for the 2nd Wild Card spot in the AL. This is not a good position as it likely means a date with New York … in the Bronx … in a 1-game playoff.
Toronto Blue Jays 68-61
538 Playoff%: 8%
538 Division Title%: 2%
538 Championship%: <1%
Path to Postseason: Toronto still has life. The Jays are 5.5 back of the 2nd Wild Card spot with 3 teams to pass.
Baltimore Orioles 40-89
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: Eliminated
538 Championship%: <1%
AL Central
Chicago White Sox 76-56
538 Playoff%: >99%
538 Division Title%: >99%
538 Championship%: 8%
Path to Postseason: The Sox have the Central locked up pretty tight. Chicago can overtake Tampa for the 1 seed in the AL with a hot month of September.
Cleveland Indians 64-64
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Path to Postseason: Cleveland’s playoff hopes are dwindling … we’ll leave it at that.
Detroit Tigers 62-69
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Kansas City Royals 59-71
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Minnesota Twins 57-73
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
AL West
Houston Astros 77-53
538 Playoff%: 98%
538 Division Title%: 97%
538 Championship%: 14%
Path to Postseason: The Astros lead Oakland in the West by a solid 5.5 games. Houston is battling with Tampa and Chicago for the AL 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the American League playoffs.
Oakland Athletics 72-59
538 Playoff%: 14%
538 Division Title%: 2%
538 Championship%: <1%
Path to Postseason: The A’s are 5.5 back in the division and 2.5 back of Boston for the 2nd Wild Card. Right in the thick of things as always … classic Oakland baseball.
Seattle Mariners 70-61
538 Playoff%: 8%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Path to Postseason: Seattle is an additional 2 games behind Oakland, putting them 4.5 out of the 2nd Wild Card in the American League.
Los Angeles Angels 64-67
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Texas Rangers 45-85
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: Eliminated
538 Championship%: <1%
National League Division and Wild Card Races
Here is a look at the hypothetical National League postseason bracket if the season ended after the previous write-up (on July 6th).
2 months ago everyone was salivating about the trio of NL West teams that were going to dominate the National League playoffs. Now we are all looking around realizing that we haven’t talked about San Diego in a long time.
The Padres have fallen off the map. The Friars couldn’t handle the heat of the summer – playing to an awful 21-30 record since the calendar hit July.
The Padres are down but certainly not out. The Cincinnati Reds ignored the naysayers and bought at the trade deadline. It has paid off. The Reds have played amazing baseball over the last six weeks and have overtaken San Diego for the 2nd Wild Card spot in the National League.
Here is the National League postseason bracket if the MLB season ended today.
The Reds have no hope of moving any higher than the 2nd Wild Card. Overall, their World Series prospects appear very bleak as their first postseason game in 2021 will be a 1-game playoff at either Oracle Park (San Francisco) or Dodger Stadium.
If the Reds maintain their slim 1.5-game lead over San Diego, probable MVP Fernando Tatis Jr. will have to watch the postseason from home. Tatis is tearing it up once again this season with a .282 average, 36 home runs, 81 RBIs, 87 runs scored, and 24 steals!
Cincinnati getting into the postseason will give an opportunity for Reds right fielder Nick Castellanos to show the world what he’s made of on baseball’s biggest stage. Castellanos is having a career season. The smooth swinging right hander has never maintained a .300 average for the entire season but Castellanos is currently 2nd in the entire Major Leagues with a 318 average at the end of August. Castellanos is also in the mid-20s in home runs and on pace to be right around 90 RBIs.
While Castellanos’ numbers are not going to earn him an MVP award, he is definitely the best hitter on the Reds team and will be a treat to watch if the Reds can hold on and make the postseason.
The Braves overtaking the Mets has been the biggest story in the National League over the past month. The New York Mets controlled the NL East for the first 3 months of the season but it started to fall apart for the Metropolitans midway through the summer. New York stopped being able to win while Atlanta finally embarked on their playoff surge.
Braves fans across the country had been patiently waiting all season long for their team to finally put it together – knowing that the Mets were unlikely to control this division the entire season.
Fortunately for Atlanta, the Phillies have also struggled in 2021 and the Nationals have never been a contender. The door was left wide open for Atlanta and they seized the opportunity – playing to an 18-8 record in the month of August.
The Braves currently hold a 4.5-game lead over the Phillies for 2nd place with the Mets falling all the way down to 3rd. Pundits and fans alike were speculating that 2021 might be the year New York gets another shot and a World Series crown.
Unless something drastic changes, the Mets will watch the playoffs from home once again. I hear Jacob deGrom has the art of the playoff watch party mastered … and his couch is super comfy.
The St. Louis Cardinals were leaders in the NL Central as late as the last week of May but they have fallen all the way down to 3rd place in the division as the Brewers have been one of the best 2nd-half teams in baseball.
Hope is not lost in St. Louis in Yadier Molina‘s penultimate season. St. Louis is now right behind San Diego in the National League Wild Card chase. San Diego is 1.5 games behind Cincinnati while St. Louis is 2 games further back.
Despite a 3.5-game difference, catching Cincinnati is as simple as just beating them head-to-head. The fierce division rivals play each other 6 times down the homestretch and lopsided outcomes in either direction could decide this Wild Card race.
The Phillies are just half a game back of St. Louis in the Wild Card standings – meaning they are a full 4 games back of Cincinnati. The Phillies have played good baseball at times but have been extremely inconsistent as Joe Girardi has struggled to maintain control of his locker room.
3 games behind the Phillies are the New York Mets. Things are looking pretty bleak for the Mets right now but I’ll use the same logic I used with the Indians. A single-digit deficit entering September still technically counts as being in the playoff race.
The Mets have some talent and were a winning team earlier in the season. If they can recapture some of that magic and have a couple of teams ahead of them stumble we could see New York sneak back into the playoff picture come late September.
National League Playoff and World Series Equities
NL East
Atlanta Braves 70-59
538 Playoff%: 90%
538 Division Title%: 90%
538 Championship%: 7%
Path to Postseason: Atlanta is never going to catch Milwaukee for the 2 seed. The Braves need to focus on winning their division and accept the fact that they will not receive home-field advantage in the NLCS should they advance.
Philadelphia Phillies 66-64
538 Playoff%: 12%
538 Division Title%: 9%
538 Championship%: <1%
Path to Postseason: The Phils switch from red hot to ice cold and then back again. Philly is just 4.5 back of Atlanta in the East with no hope of a Wild Card bid.
New York Mets 63-67
538 Playoff%: 1%
538 Division Title%: 1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Path to Postseason: New York needs to erase a 7.5-game deficit in the East to make the postseason. The Wild Card is not an option,
Washington Nationals 55-74
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Miami Marlins 55-76
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers 79-52
538 Playoff%: >99%
538 Division Title%: 95%
538 Championship%: 8%
Path to Postseason: The Brewers feature the best pitching in the Major Leagues. Milwaukee should hold onto their lead in the NL Central and even has an outside shot at passing San Fran/LA for the NL’s 1 seed.
Cincinnati Reds 71-61
538 Playoff%: 78%
538 Division Title%: 5%
538 Championship%: 2%
Path to Postseason: The Reds are narrowly ahead of the Padres and Cardinals for the 2nd Wild Card spot in the National League – which is their only viable path to the postseason.
St. Louis Cardinals 66-63
538 Playoff%: 4%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Path to Postseason: St. Louis needs to catch Cincinnati while also staving off the Tatis-led San Diego Padres for the 2nd Wild Card spot in the National League.
Chicago Cubs 57-75
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Pittsburgh Pirates 48-83
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
NL West
San Francisco Giants 84-46
538 Playoff%: >99%
538 Division Title%: 44%
538 Championship%: 7%
Path to Postseason: The Giants have been the Major League’s best team for the majority of the 2021 season. SF holds a 2.5-game lead over the World Series-favorite Dodgers for the NL West crown and the NL’s 1 seed.
Los Angeles Dodgers 82-49
538 Playoff%: >99%
538 Division Title%: 56%
538 Championship%: 28%
Path to Postseason: The Dodgers are the World Series favorites and yet have played the entire 2021 season in 2nd place behind San Fran. LA is 2.5 games back in the division but holds a massive lead in the Wild Card.
San Diego Padres 69-62
538 Playoff%: 16%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Path to Postseason: The Padres are on the outside looking in, currently – 1.5 games behind the Reds for the 2nd Wild Card spot. SD has no realistic shot at catching either San Fran or LA for the NL West crown.
Colorado Rockies 60-70
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Arizona Diamondbacks 44-88
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: Eliminated
538 Championship%: <1%
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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