XFL Betting in Week 5: BattleHawks at Defenders Point Spread and Prediction

Here’s a sentence I didn’t think I’d be writing about American pigskin – WagerBop might have had a winning Week 4 instead of posting a 2-2 XFL record if Seattle Dragons head coach Jim Zorn hadn’t called for a 3-point conversion attempt at the wrong time, losing by 4 points before and after a pass was dropped at the pylon.

3-point conversion. No, this isn’t part of our March Madness coverage. But an XFL club can “hit a trey” by scoring on a snap from the 10-yard line after a 6-point touchdown.

Zorn’s blunder in the 2^nd half at St. Louis was typical of head coaching mistakes in that he told a sideline reporter, “we had a play we thought would work.” They say that the chess battlefield is strewn with a million vanquished Kings and Queens whose last words were, “I didn’t see that.” If there’s a grave site for lost football games, most of the epitaphs should read “we had a play we thought would work.”

Bill Walsh wrote in Finding the Winning Edge that head coaches must avoid getting lost in the fine details at all costs – Xs and Os can make them think of a costly gamble as a “sure thing.” Zorn was merely the 934,587^th coach out of an infinite number who’ll do the same.

Let’s give Seattle some credit though. Not only did the Dragons play the BattleHawks tough (as predicted) in a 23-16 loss, but Zorn also isn’t the only coach who must adapt to the XFL’s strange touchdown rules. He’ll get better at it.

Hopefully I’ll get better at predicting the new spring league, too. On the bright side we can see that WagerBop’s overall hypothesis on the XFL is proving to be true – sportsbooks and gamblers alike are putting too much stock in early results. There’s no historical record, players and coaches are still getting to know each other in the heat of combat, and the clubs have played a total of 16 quarters each. That means gambling lines ought to be tight, cautious, unremarkable. Yet we’ve been seeing 4-to-1 underdogs and 2-touchdown spreads all over the place. There’s no such thing as a 2-touchdown favorite when teams haven’t even played 5 times! Not when it’s a brand-new league designed for parity, anyway.

I’m not dismayed by the 7-point loss on a (+385) line in St. Louis last weekend. It almost paid off handsomely. Let’s keep an eye out for strong underdogs in Week 5 as well.

Seattle Dragons at Houston Roughnecks

Another week, another exaggerated gambling line. The unbeaten Houston Roughnecks are a (-12.5) point spread and (-550) moneyline favorite to beat 1-3 Seattle in a match-up of top vs bottom in the XFL West division.

If there’s a double-digit XFL point spread for which I might be persuaded to tout the favorite to cover, it would be the Houston-vs-Seattle market. June Jones has a good thing going in Space City, utilizing a version of his wide-open playbook that manufactured points in bunches for Hawaii back in the day. P.J. Walker is leading all XFL quarterbacks with nearly 1000 passing yards and 12 touchdowns, but he’s also got the best job in the league, steering a machine of a unit thanks to the 1 XFL coach with the stones to run something other than an NFL-lite system in every single game.

But the Dragons found a little NCAA-style magic of their own on offense against a solid team in the Gateway City last week. Lacking in other options to get his club moving the football, Zorn turned to former backup QB B.J. Daniels, who provided a spark in the read-option game with 80+ yards on a handful of carries. Daniels hit some long play-action passes to further the cause, but Seattle had messed-around with its traditional attack just long enough for the BattleHawks to grab a nice lead. Seattle Times is reporting that there’s now a QB controversy in town, but it’s hard to imagine Zorn not sticking with Daniels over the long haul – or at least using him as a change-of-pace weapon – after the revelation of the 2^nd half in St. Louis.

That leads me to believe the O/U (46) is too conservative of a number for Saturday’s opening XFL contest.

Being an old-school NFL alum, Zorn might ask a drop-back passer to go out and stink it up for 2 or 3 quarters because he’d rather lose than win with “college” tactics. Otherwise, I’d take Seattle to cover in a second. Yet the fact that Daniels can’t be far from getting into another game adds an element of scoring punch to the mix – and Houston’s offense should be more than ready to go at home.

Pick: Over

New York Guardians at Dallas Renegades

Simpler handicap for Saturday’s follow-up in Big D. The Renegades are a (-7.5) favorite largely because of the team’s worthy performance in a 27-20 loss to Houston in Week 4. However, it’s not unusual to see an inferior squad hold the score tight against a powerful club in a rivalry game at home. When the Renegades visit the Roughnecks on April 2^nd it might be a very different story.

Meanwhile, the Guardians were excellent in a 17-14 win over the underrated L.A. Wildcats.

Pick: Guardians ATS

St. Louis BattleHawks at D.C. Defenders

The BattleHawks are a neat story. St. Louis has been rather unlucky with NFL franchises over the years, losing the Cardinals and the Rams in the span of a few decades. As a former St. Louis resident, I’ll offer the “opinion” (though it seems flatly obvious) that the Rams had no interest in winning in the final stretch of seasons along the Mississippi. Winning and reaching the playoffs would have ramped-up support and interest keeping the club in STL. Losing made it easier to move back to L.A. without a gigantic ordeal. That’s why Jeff Fisher was allowed to drink coach there for so long. Now, with the BattleHawks of the XFL trying to win and succeeding at it, the town is bananas over them.

St. Louis has a dual-threat QB of its own in Jordan Ta’amu, who is rated 2^nd among signal-callers in Vince McMahon’s gridiron reboot. The D.C. Defenders, meanwhile, were blown-out and shut-out in Tampa Bay last week. The BattleHawks are a better team than the Defenders – the only question is whether the XFL East leaders can take the show back on the road after an emotional home stand.

My guess is yes. D.C. is 2-0 at home but both victories came in the opening 2 weeks against unprepared squads from New York and Seattle. Ta’amu is far from the only quality athlete playing for St. Louis, where Matt Jones could emerge at running back and the pass rush is getting stronger.

St. Louis should win by at least a TD, and at (-5.5) that is sure to cover even in the conversion-challenged land of the XFL.

Pick: BattleHawks ATS

Tampa Bay Vipers at L.A. Wildcats

The Tampa Bay “Vipers” remind me of an old joke not worth repeating, but I will anyway:

A woman alone in her high-rise apartment is disturbed by an ominous clatter outside. She then hears a raspy voice call out “I am zee viper! I am zee viper!” as the noise gets closer. She attempts to flee in a panic, but finds a harmless old guy standing in the hallway with a squeegee and a bucket.

“I am zee viper,” he tells her. “I have come to vash the vindows.”

Yep. Pretty cheesy. But there’s a different kind of eye-rolling going on in Las Vegas this week, and it’s the reaction of smart handicappers looking at L.A.’s meager (-2.5) spread vs visiting Tampa in Sunday’s late XFL kickoff.

Really? Less than a field goal favorite? Here’s a club that has a solid, responsible QB in Josh Johnson, a burgeoning pass-rusher in Cedric Reed, and a talented corps of skill players who can be effective even if leading WR Nelson Spruce has to sit-out another week with injury. L.A. has only given up 3 meaningful touchdowns in 8 quarters while playing at home, and yet the Wildcats are a (-2.5) point spread wager against a Tampa Bay squad that’s 1-3 overall and hasn’t won on the road yet.

It’s a gimme! Invest a few extra units if you’re already winning on the XFL by the time Sunday evening rolls around – it’s worth the risk.

Pick: Wildcats ATS