Women’s World Cup: USWNT Group Stage Odds, Group A Through Group H Previews, and Betting Predictions

FIFA women’s competition has been overshadowed – imagine that – by other soccer headlines hitting North America from far closer to home. Messi to Miami might be the biggest Major League Soccer story of a generation, and it’s very hard to ignore what’s going on in Paris right now – politically and on the pitch.

The 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup in Oceania should, of course, be getting more press than it is. But we’ve got a hunch that the FIFA girls will captivate North America from all the way around the globe once again by the time it’s said and done. There are more teams than ever in the FIFA Women’s World Cup as of 2023, and maybe just maybe, more competitive parity about to be on display in a division that’s been controlled by a few nations.

But what if the Women’s World Cup turns into a romp toward the medal round on behalf of Team USA, Team England again, with perhaps only one worthwhile spoiler along for the ride?

WagerBop recommends setting aside any newfangled prop-bet futures or game odds, and sticking to good ol’ Group Winner markets as the key to an entertaining round-robin down under. If you set aside the “Godzillas” of USMNT and England and look for tasty underdogs in alternative brackets, you’ll find that an undercurrent of distaff football is catching-up to the top ranks of FIFA, if not yet to the top 2 rungs on the ladder.

Besides, we’ve got another hunch that the famed Lionesses may not be so safe from new predators in the 2023 women’s Group Stage. Here’s a preview of every 4-team battle in Oceania, and 7 out of 8 recommended Outright Winner picks to go with just one “newfangled” (sort of) prop bet on a colorful contender.

(Women’s World Cup betting lines courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

FIFA WWC Group A: Norway, New Zealand, Switzerland, Philippines

Team Norway (-280)
Team New Zealand (+500)
Team Switzerland (+500)
Team Philippines (+10000)

Australia’s national teams are the closest at mimicking genuine FIFA-class competition within Oceania’s confederation, but New Zealand’s squads of either gender should certainly not be ignored. The Solomon Islands are foremost competitors of New Zealand in the OFC, with rosters ranked well in the hundredth-place rungs of FIFA’s totem pole. Oceania’s newest official membership could potentially go to Micronesia, as determined by the confederation’s Extraordinary Congress. That sounds more like an episode of Super Milk-Chan than a threat to the dominance that Europe and North America hold for the beautiful game.

The ailing confederation needed help hosting the 2023 Women’s World Cup, which begins on Thursday, July 20th. And lucky for them, they got just what they needed.

2023’s Women’s World Cup is co-hosted by Australia in 3 out of 5 cities, including the WWC Final at Stadium Australia in Sydney on August 20th. In some respects, the AFC and OFC are helping each other create a World Cup that neither organization could have produced on its own, as sold tickets have moved slowly enough in New Zealand’s pair of host cities to cause concern, while 2 of Australia’s stadiums slotted to host Group Stage dates are among the most diminutive in FIFA’s international purview. There’s a slim chance the OFC and AFC’s chief flag-bearers will meet in an elimination game in August, but much more of a likelihood that Australia or New Zealand will carry a banner for all of a continent’s supporters, if not confederation-based supporters, in an attempt to make the quarter-finals and live up to their underdog status.

New Zealand’s women’s team is far more accomplished than its men’s lineup, as the Football Ferns are ranked 26th among FIFA’s women’s lineups and can boast the services of renowned striker Hannah Wilkinson in front of veteran keeper Erin Nayler. New Zealand forward Gabi Rennie of Arizona State University may be counted among the notable up-and-comers to keep an eye out for.

New Zealand is a (+500) offering at FanDuel to win Group A, a betting line that could be based more on the Football Ferns’ fortunate draw than the host nation’s form, which has slipped from a 16th women’s ranking to the team’s current position in 8 short years. New Zealand’s foremost challenge will be in the tournament’s debut match with “Grasshoppers” of Norway, just as it’s becoming clearer that the latter team’s glory years of international football could be in its rearview. Switzerland of Group A really ought to have a better reputation in women’s soccer, given the team’s number of footballers from prestigious club brands of Germany and the English Super League. But the Swiss bowed out of the knock-out round without a goal in their only Women’s World Cup appearance in 2015. Switzerland is aging in goal while fielding inexperienced players on the back line, resulting in the nation’s 4-to-1 underdog futures pick to reach the quarter-final round. The Philippines represents Group A’s remaining underdog bid and is drawing the cheapest-priced futures picks of them all.

A lucky-timed draw against favored Norway in the 2023 WWC’s opening match gives New Zealand better than 1-in-5 chances to surprise Grasshoppers and finish Round 3 ahead on the leaderboard.

WagerBop’s Pick: New Zealand (+500)

FIFA WWC Group B: Australia, Canada, Republic of Ireland, Nigeria

Team Australia (-185)
Team Canada (+200)
Team Ireland (+1900)
Team Nigeria (+3500)

Our friends from down under are a pricier futures pick to reach the quarter-finals, and even a FanDuel dark horse to win World Cup gold medals at 11-to-1 odds. Nigeria is not as accomplished in women’s soccer as the familiar Super Eagles of men’s FIFA, perhaps explaining why the Aussies’ odds are on the pricier end.

That being truthful, Australia’s betting odds look braver when one considers Canada’s enduring strength on the international stage. The 7th-ranked Maple Leaf is a popular pick to win Group B even though Team Canada is technically “4th position” in the round-robin draw.

Don’t forget that Australia is the most recent squad to host Team USA on home soil and manage anything but a defeat. Forward Kyah Simon’s goal at the 88-minute mark of a friendly played in November 2021 gave Team Australia a landmark 1-1 draw with the United States Women’s National Team, a result that would come to signify the Stars & Stripes “slump” of 2021-22, as Czechia would not allow the USWNT to garner a single goal in their matchup.

But the upstart team of Ireland also has a chance of making noise in the Round-of-16, or even winning Group B’s table as an underdog futures pick. Girls in Green have been grand after getting the worst of COVID-19’s dampening effects on the soccer world, allowing zero goals throughout a 2022 streak of glory that included wins over Scotland, Finland, and Morocco.

Ireland’s distaff squad began 2023 in impressive fashion, allowing just 3 goals to the United States in friendlies played in Austin and St. Louis and drawing 0-0 with a powerful Chinese squad.

WagerBop’s Pick: Ireland (+1900)

FIFA WWC Group C: Spain, Japan, Zambia, Costa Rica

Team Spain (-340)
Team Japan (+290)
Team Zambia (+4900)
Team Costa Rica (+10000)

The effects of what was supposed to be a private letter sent from members of Spain’s Women’s National Team to the Spanish football federation last September are reverberating in the public buildup to this year’s WWC. The letter stated that players were reconsidering taking part in Oceania 2023 due to the abuses and recklessness of manager Jorge Vilda. Spain’s federation made the dubious decision to make the players’ beef public over the fall and winter, subjecting the program’s highly-ranked women to criticism, and serving to shield Spain from taking too many supporters’ calls to sack Vilda prior to New Zealand.

Then the federation played dirty yet again, putting out a statement that declared the footballers to be in mutiny. “Officials called the athletes’ unwillingness to play for Spain in the 2023 FIFA World Cup ‘unprecedented in football history’ and said that the players would only be allowed to return in (the) future if they apologized.” To top it all off, Spain federation recruiters began contacting youth players in the Spanish program, declaring their intentions to replace the senior team with the women’s U23 squad if need be.

However, as soon as a few players backpedaled, bookmakers in New York decided to wave off the Spain story, listing the Spanish team as a (+650) gold medal futures pick. Those betting odds haven’t changed at all over the past week at FanDuel Sportsbook, even as the news on Spain’s player-coach relations sounds increasingly worse. Some footballers did apologize after a fashion to be allowed back into training for the Women’s World Cup after some ambiguity on Vilda’s part when submitting short-list roster names this spring. Others will wait until Vilda is sacked before being willing to take part in any form of Spain national team events.

The coach-player conflict will almost certainly cause at least several players to miss the Women’s World Cup for La Roja. Veteran keeper Sandra Paños has decided to sit out Oceania, and center-back Mapi León was even moved to remark in first person, “Bob Dole” style, about the Spain women’s team: “My decision is clear. Mapi León has values to stick to. I can’t go back, there has to be changes.” Spanish team captain Irene Paredes and record goal-scorer Jenni Hermoso were recently called up by mutual agreement, but Barcelona’s best distaff midfielders and defenders are probably long gone until the federation’s top names in charge of women’s soccer agree to let new faces steer the project.

Despite all the drama, Spain’s betting odds have remained unchanged. Ockham’s Razor tells us that the lack of movement is likely due to dull wagering action in advance of the 2023 Women’s World Cup.

If the Spain women’s story is overshadowed in U.S. sports headlines by Messi to Miami and the CONCACAF Gold Cup, not enough soccer gamers are yet taking part in Oceania ’23 to affect the lines on Spain or its rivals on the women’s pitch. However, that doesn’t mean oddsmakers couldn’t have adjusted the numbers at some point between last September and now, plenty of time to attend to a “secondary” betting line.

Vilda’s conflict with the team has effectively caused a downward spiral for Spain’s market value no matter what the odds currently say, because there’s simply no upside to the fight. Spain will arrive with an incomplete roster that could include several footballers with minimal intrinsic motivation.

All of the chaos surrounding Group C does have an upside, and that upside is for those who take underdog futures wagers on Team Japan. The Japanese are a strong Group Stage futures pick, in addition to being a head-to-head winner against ailing Spain as soon as full betting markets are available.

Japan lost 0-1 to Spain in a friendly played last November, but the rest of 2022 was a banner year for Nadeshiko. Manager Futoshi Ikeda’s squad posted 4 clean sheets in its first 7 matches, defeating Finland, South Korea, Nigeria, and Women’s World Cup host New Zealand by impressive scores. Japan whipped Canada 3-0 in the 2023 She Believes Cup before losing by just one goal to the USWNT.

WagerBop’s Pick: Japan (+290)

FIFA WWC Group D: England, Denmark, China, Haiti

Team England (W) -850
Team Denmark (W) +850
Team China (W) +3800
Team Haiti (W) +10000

Much of the analysis for this year’s Women’s World Cup will focus on Group D and Group E, in which tournament favorites England and USA will respectively compete. But although the Americans must deal with 2019 World Cup Final nemesis Holland in Group E, it’s England that arguably faces the harder draw of the “Tea Party rivalry” that soccer supporters anticipate seeing on August 20.

England must deal with China and Denmark, the latter of which has beaten Norway, Sweden, and Japan via clean-sheet outcomes this calendar year. The USWNT opens against Vietnam of Group E prior to taking on a Holland side that’s plunged down the top 10 after reaching the finale last time around. The Stars and Stripes will then face off against Portugal on August 1 in what should be a manageable win for the former team.

The British are almost certain to reach the semifinals, but Lionesses’ incredibly pricey 1/8 odds to plow through a tough Group D make England’s futures odds to finish atop the round-robin standings in Oceania a poor wager. Denmark and perhaps China may have an opportunity to sneak into a points lead as well since women’s soccer isn’t yet deep enough for managers to freak out about qualifying with a 2nd-place finish.

WagerBop’s Pick: Denmark (+850)

FIFA WWC Group E: United States, The Netherlands, Portugal, Vietnam

Team USA (-310)
The Netherlands (+260)
Team Portugal (+3800)
Team Vietnam (+10000)

An unfortunate foot injury is going to keep USWNT captain Becky Sauerbrunn off the field in the 2023 Women’s World Cup. Yet there’s seemingly no angle that will cause FanDuel Sportsbook’s speculators to stop picking Team USA to win another set of golden bling in Oceania. In fact, the USWNT’s odds are pulling away from England’s, drawing picks at prices of (+240), or just shy of 2-to-1 odds, to bring a gold medal back across the ocean.

There are understated details – hidden behind glossy USWNT hype as ever – showing why the United States is a gambling favorite to take home another women’s world championship. The brand suffered a noticeable dip in events after its Women’s World Cup triumph in 2019 and the debated sacking of former coach Jill Ellis, even drawing consecutive matches against world #10 and #27 ranked Australia and Czechia, respectively. New Zealand could be the last FIFA Women’s World Cup performance for the beloved forward Morgan as well as for 37-year-old Megan Rapinoe. Plus, as of April, goaltender Alyssa Naeher turned 35 years old.

A more cautious and refined style of gameplay helped the 2022 USWNT regain its pristine form in critical events. The Stars & Stripes swept last summer’s CONCACAF Champions League with 4 consecutive clean-sheet victories. Ironically, it was Brazil that finally snapped the U.S. women’s shut-out streak in a 1-goal loss to USWNT in the She Believes Cup. The Stars & Stripes is beginning to resemble the men’s Brazil National Team of the 2020s, a squad that had once made itself known for its fantastic attacking play, yet now dominates with a defense that’s nearly impossible to penetrate.

Team USA’s new coach Vlatko Andonovski’s tactics have produced sub-50% possession for the Americans in some matches. Strangely enough, this could ensure that the USWNT isn’t the best against-the-spread pick in Oceania. There is little or no actual betting value in the United States’ massive (-8000) favorite’s pick on the moneyline over Vietnam in Round 1. A goal spread as crazy as USA (-6) wouldn’t be out of the question.

Despite all, FanDuel has left the USWNT as a generous (-310) pick to win Group E. Holland is considered the group’s sexy-underdog pick at (+280) odds to prevail, but doing so would entail beating the Americans who will likely rack up a massive goal-differential advantage right out of the gate vs Vietnam on July 27th.

The Netherlands couldn’t whip the USA in 2019’s Women’s World Cup, and its lineup has been diminished by turnover and circumstances in the years since. FanDuel’s futures odds on round-robin play create a rare chance for soccer supporters to place non-sentimental bets on a U.S. team roaring into the WCC.

WagerBop’s Pick: Team USA (-310)

FIFA WWC Group E: France, Brazil, Jamaica, Panama

Team France (W) -170
Team Brazil (W) +160
Team Jamaica (W) +3800
Team Panama (W) +10000

WagerBop has been successful at avoiding underdog fever prior to the 2023 Women’s World Cup. We’ll recommend a favorite or 2 (apart from the United States) to win for their Team Futures markets. However, the sportsbook’s tight (-170) odds on France as they prepare to face off against Brazil in Group F shows how risky the former team’s offering really is. Team France is fortunately (in this case) sending players far away from the tumult of home, where fiery protests and racism scandals threaten to make 2023-24 into a quiet and gloomy season for soccer events around Paris. Brazil’s players are no less familiar with political upheaval and violence in their homeland, but the WWC will continue to be decided by goal-scoring regardless of the real-world distractions that may be present.

Group F’s winner could be decided by a goal-differential if the France-Brazil fixture is drawn after 90+ minutes. That decision may favor Team Brazil, for the Green & Yellow has been giving every indication of a goal-scoring attack that’s ready to break out against its next truly vulnerable foes. Team Brazil has scored goals against the highly-vaunted American, Japanese, and German teams in 2023 and nearly hijacked a title tilt vs Lionesses in London after the matchup went to penalty kicks.

One could be easily convinced that France’s offense is on the uptick as of late, however, the team’s boost in scoring is only due to Les Bleues having played far weaker competition. France was embarrassed by Sweden, Germany, and nearly Norway in a series of friendlies played late in 2022 and followed up with a dull performance in the squad’s own Tournoi de France just a few months ago.

WagerBop’s Pick: Brazil (+160)

FIFA WWC Group G: Sweden, Italy, Argentina, South Africa

Team Sweden (W) -380
Team Italy (W) +400
Team Argentina (W) +2700
Team South Africa (W) +7500

It’s fairly common for a nation’s World Cup reputation to surpass the fledgling success of women’s national programs, and Sweden’s 1-to-4 betting line to win Group G serves as no exception. Tre-Kronor is ranked proudly at #3 in the world and retains the quality of the brand which knocked-off Team USA in the Summer Olympics last decade. Though the Swedes’ last 3 friendlies have resulted in 0 wins, the troubling trend hasn’t resulted in a groundswell of betting action on relatively low-ranked Group G rivals Argentina and Italy.

There may in fact be a handful of unlucky casual bettors who have picked Argentina based on the country’s mad success in the 2022 Men’s World Cup, not realizing that there was a “W” next to the nation’s game odds for Oceania. Regardless, the quartet’s group-winner odds have stayed fairly stable.

The fact that Italy’s distaff team has actually qualified for FIFA World Cup competition makes them as live an underdog as any other squad. But the limpness of Italy’s attacking game in the 2020s is illustrated by how few of Italy’s players are lured away from the homeland to sign nicer contracts than what Serie A’s sister teams have to offer. Sweden is simply too quick for Argentina’s squad to keep up with, giving Tre Kronor an easy chance to build momentum going into July 29th’s key bout against Italy. Superior striking by the favored Swedes should be enough to seal the deal at some point in that pivotal fixture.

WagerBop’s Pick: Sweden (-380)

FIFA WWC Group H: Germany, Columbia, South Korea, Morocco

Team Germany (W) -1000
Team Colombia (W) +1700
Team South Korea (W) +1900
Team Morocco (W) +10000

Group H not only has the final teams for this year’s round-robin but it also has the most lopsided odds offering to be had on the betting table. There may once again be a tendency for casual gamblers to pick name-brand underdogs out of Group H based on each country’s respective men’s squads’ reputations. But if that’s the case, it’s not doing much to widen the prohibitively short odds that Women’s World Cup powerhouse Germany currently boasts.

Despite its “powerhouse” status, Alexandria Popp’s team is just one of many that Brazil has recently upset. Of course, users should not expect the Morocco women’s team to follow up on 2022’s glory in Qatar and upset the All-Stars of women’s Bundesliga when Germany meets Morocco to open Group H’s slate on July 24th. Eyes will therefore be shifted to South Korea and Colombia to knock the Germans down a peg.

There are 2 dangerous ‘dogs in Group H that help make Germany’s draw comparable to England’s arduous sailing in Oceania. Yet it’s noteworthy that despite Korea’s impressive world ranking in women’s FIFA, it’s Colombia that is drawing more futures picks to overcome a paltry #25 world women’s ranking.

South Korea was simply staying afloat while Colombia’s “Powerpuff Girls” made post-COVID strides that included a near-invincible streak throughout 2022 and a special invitation to play friendlies with the FIFA women’s world champions on U.S. grounds. Colombian women’s teams’ attacks are more lively in form and execution than those of the severely offensively-challenged men’s side. It’s equally exciting that Powerpuff Girls – on top of having the greatest of all nicknames in FIFA – are as defensively stingy as the men’s coach Néstor Lorenzo’s lineup without kicking-and-chasing to protect paranoid clean sheets.

Nonetheless, the Colombians’ slim likelihood of beating Germany to finish #1 in the round-robin makes a cautious prop bet the best Colombia pick instead of a gamble on 1st place glory. Don’t get mad, Blossom.

WagerBop’s Pick: Colombia to Qualify for the Round-of-16 (-130)