Women’s World Cup Preview: USWNT News and Forecast, Gold Medal Odds, and Spain’s Costly Controversy

United States Women’s National Team captain (is that just “team captain,” or “Team team captain?) Becky Sauerbrunn was heartbroken to announce that her recent, severe injury won’t recover in time for the veteran to suit up in the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup. Yet there’s seemingly no angle that will cause American sportsbook speculators to stop picking the USWNT to win another set of golden bling in Oceania. Within this calendar year, the USWNT’s gold medal odds have pulled apart from England’s, drawing championship odds of (+240) or just shy of a 2-to-1 futures betting line.

WagerBop’s FIFA specialists know not to see Alex Morgan’s face on a Ritz box and rush to the conclusion that more USWNT gold is inevitable this year. Instead, there are various understated details helping to leaven the blow of Sauerbrunn’s injury, and pointing to why the United States is a sportsbook favorite to take home another women’s world championship. The USWNT suffered a noticeable dip in outcomes just following its Women’s World Cup triumph in 2019 and the debated sacking of former coach Jill Ellis, drawing back-to-back matches against world #10 and #27 ranked Team Australia and Team Czechia respectively. Oceania ’23 could be the last FIFA Women’s World Cup performance for the fabled Morgan, plus 37-year-old Megan Rapinoe, and as of this summer,  goaltender Alyssa Naeher is 35 years old as well. The prevalence of old legs has forced the squad to change its tactics, if rather effectively. In 2022, the USWNT managed to regain its pristine form in critical events with a more cautious and refined style of gameplay than the chaotic ball-chasing which characterized the championship squad of 4 years ago.

Stars & Stripes swept last summer’s CONCACAF Champions League with 4 consecutive clean-sheet victories. Ironically, it was Brazil that finally snapped the U.S. women’s shut-out streak in a 1-goal loss to USWNT in the She Believes Cup. The USWNT is beginning to resemble the men’s Brazil National Team, a squad that once made itself known for its fantastic attacking play, yet now dominates with iron-fisted defending.

Team England’s (+410) odds to lift hardware in August are unmatched among World Cup underdogs, with vaunted Spain and Germany teams drawing just 7-to-1 futures lines in comparison. Team Australia’s bold performances against the United States in 2021 has helped to earn Matildas an (+1100) world championship betting line.

Repeat gold at the 2023 WWC could help to galvanize support for the 2026 Men’s World Cup in North America, an event for which futures odds are more favorable to Team USA than betting lines prior to Qatar’s tournament in 2022. While it’s a tremendous help to Christian Pulisic’s team that pools (or “pots”) and Group Stage fields will be thinned out by FIFA’s addition of 16 teams in 2026, going from 32 to 48, the Yanks’ (+1900) gambling odds on winning the World Cup can only be attributed to the lineup’s fast development as an elite opponent. Come 2026, the USMNT’s squad of inexperienced strikers could be mentally and physically ready to face the competition. The fresh presence of Lionel Messi in MLS football could combine with a banner FIFA Men’s World Cup on host soil to produce an explosion of soccer interest such as this continent has never seen.

But we don’t want to become the sports-blog version of “women’s” announcers like Kenny Albert, who thinks Morgan’s most interesting factoid is that her little second cousin played on a boys’ U15 lacrosse team once. The FIFA Women’s World Cup is no longer a weak sibling of the men’s World Cup, and nor will Oceania 2023 be a simple coronation for one dominant team. Underdogs will perform a massive role as usual…starting with the team hosting this summer’s gala.

New Zealand Gets Help From Familiar, Yet Rival World Cup Host

WagerBop will wager on avoiding the obvious George Orwell references, turning Women’s World Cup previews into puns about Oceania “always having been at war with Eastasia” for a whole 8 weeks through August 20th. But there’s a number of ills plaguing New Zealand and the Oceanic Confederation as it prepares to host a women’s FIFA showdown, beginning with the fact that the AFC, or Asian Football Confederation, already stole away the Indian Ocean’s best football brand back in the 2000s. Australia’s “Socceroos” and “Matildas” play with the Samurai Blue of Japan and other well-ranked teams of the AFC ever since Oceania’s FIFA World Cup qualification rules worked to hold the Australian men’s team out of a few too many men’s world championship tilts.

National teams of New Zealand aren’t used to facing FIFA-class competition in theater outside of Australia’s national teams. The Solomon Islands are often foremost rival of New Zealand in the OFC, with the latter’s rosters ranked well in the hundredth-place rungs of FIFA’s international totem pole. Oceania’s newest official membership could go to Federated States of Micronesia, as will be determined by Oceania’s Extraordinary Congress. That sounds a bit like an episode of Super Milk-Chan as opposed to a legitimate threat to Europe and North America’s dominance in FIFA.

It’s a reason why the ailing confederation is getting an assist with this year’s World Cup. Matildas are co-hosting the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup, including the Final (probably not in person on the pitch, but hey, dare to dream) at Stadium Australia in Sydney on August 20th.

In some ways, the AFC and OFC are helping each other to create a Women’s World Cup that neither organization could have by itself, since tickets have moved slowly enough in New Zealand’s host cities to cause concern, while 2 of Australia’s stadiums slotted to host Group Stage dates are among the most diminutive in FIFA’s international purview. There’s a thin chance the OFC and AFC’s chief flag-bearers will meet in an elimination game in August, but far more of a likelihood Australia or New Zealand will carry a banner for all of a continent’s supporters, if not conferation-based supporters in a single underdog run, like the 2022 men’s team from Morocco.

Supporters on the far side of the world can also take heart that New Zealand’s women’s team is far more accomplished than the Kiwi men’s lineup. The Football Ferns are ranked 26th among FIFA’s women’s lineups, and can boast the inclusion of formidable striker Hannah Wilkinson in front of veteran goalkeeper Erin Nayler. The forward Gabi Rennie of Arizona State University may be counted among the notable up-and-comers of the Women’s World Cup in 2023.

However, the 4-to-1 Las Vegas odds on New Zealand reaching the quarter-finals of its own Women’s World Cup are inspired by the Football Ferns’ fortunate draw, more so than the host nation’s form, which has slipped from a 16th women’s ranking to the squad’s 2020s status in 8 short years.

New Zealand’s foremost challenge will be in the tournament’s debut vs “Grasshoppers” of Norway, just as it’s getting more noticeable that the latter team’s glory years of international soccer could be in meadows past. Switzerland of Group A really ought to have a firmer reputation in women’s competition, given the team’s number of footballers from the big club brands of Germany and the English Super League. Yet the Swiss bowed out of the knock-out round without a goal in their only Women’s World Cup appearance 8 years ago. Switzerland is aging in goal despite inexperienced players on the back line, resulting in the nation’s (+430) underdog futures odds to reach the quarter-finals. Group A’s remaining underdog bid from the Philippines (+2500) draws the cheapest futures pick underneath the flagship group’s prop-futures betting favorites of Norway.

Vo-host Australia is a brighter (-105) pick to reach the quarter-finals, and a dark horse to win World Cup gold medals at 11-to-1 odds. Perhaps the Aussies’ round-robin draw is a clue to pricey picks on the AFC’s co-hosts, since group rival Nigeria is not as accomplished in women’s soccer as the familiar Super Eagles of men’s FIFA. However, Matildas betting odds look braver when one considers Canada’s enduring strength on the international stage. While Canada is technically in “4th position” in the round-robin draw, the 7th-ranked Maple Leaf is also a favored bet to win Group B.

Forward Kyah Simon’s goal at the 88-minute mark of a friendly played in November 2021 gave Team Australia a landmark 1-1 draw with the United States, a result that would come to signify the Stars & Stripes “slump” of 2021-22, as the USWNT went scoreless versus its next foe Czechia.

Ireland is an interesting (+430) bet to reach the quarter-finals. Girls in Green are grand after getting the worst of COVID-19’s dampening effects on the soccer world, allowing zero goals throughout a 2022 streak of glory that came with roaring wins over Scotland, Finland, and Morocco.

The Republic of Ireland’s distaff team began 2023 in impressive fashion as well, drawing 0-0 with China before allowing just 3 goals to the USWNT in friendlies played in Austin and STL.

Looking Ahead to the USWNT’s Group Stage Matchups

2023 Women’s World Cup analysis will focus on Group D and Group E, in which tournament favorites England and USA will respectively compete. Yet while the USWNT must deal with 2019 World Cup Final nemesis Holland within Group E, it’s the Lionesses squad that arguably faces the harder draw between teams of the “Tea Party rivalry” that’s expected to headline on 8/20.

Lionesses of England will open the Women’s World Cup slate on July 22nd against Les Grenadières of Haiti, a flaky but talented squad that fared nobly against the star-studded Stars & Stripes in a 2022 CONCACAF battle, then clean-sheet schooled host Mexico 3-0 in the next kickoff. Team England must also deal with China in addition to Denmark, the latter of which has beaten Norway, Sweden, and Japan in clean-sheet outcomes in 2023. The USWNT, by comparison, opens against Vietnam of Group E prior to taking on a Holland side that’s plunged down the top 10 after reaching the finale last time around. Portugal will present still another inferior U.S. opponent on 8/1.

Team USA a massive (-4000) favorite’s bet to defeat Vietnam (+3300) in Round 1, and will be offered on goal-spread lines such as (-2) and (-3) against standard 1/1 betting odds throughout the Women’s World Cup. But don’t be too hasty to pick Stars & Stripes to cover wide spreads at pricey lines. The USWNT began the 2019 Women’s World Cup by defeating Thailand in a 13-0 laugher, but rapidly settled into a pattern of low-scoring wins which included a 2-0 victory over Sweden, and identically tallied 2-1 victories over Spain, France, and later Lionesses in the semi-finals.

USWNT fixtures remain suspenseful, in spite of the narrative of U.S. women’s soccer as being “too good” for its competition. New coach Vlatko Andonovski’s relatively staid, positional style, which has actually produced sub-50% possession for the Americans in some matches, could ensure that the United States (weirdly enough) isn’t the best against-the-spread betting pick in Oceania.

Yet the squad’s newfound propensity for clean sheets makes the U.S. a virtual lock to win more medals. Fittingly, the United States Women’s National Team is currently a (+135) Las Vegas pick to reach the Women’s World Cup Final, and an optimistic (-320) pick to play in the Q-Finals.

Women’s World Cup: Spain’s Pain Could Lead to Wide Open Battle in Group C

When the Group Futures betting odds on Women’s World Cup action arrive at FanDuel this summer, most of Oceania’s round-robin foursomes are bound to inspire tighter lines than Group C. Spain’s likely Group Stage rival Japan has fallen from the FIFA top-10 over the past dozen years of competition, while Costa Rica and Zambia are perceived as easy marks for a Spanish team that’s favored to win at least bronze medals by FanDuel Sportsbook.

But a story is crossing the wires that could turn Group C into a free-for-all after all. Spain’s roster scenario appears to have deteriorated since trouble began brewing in the federation last summer. At least 2-3 key names won’t play for Spain at the 2023 Women’s World Cup via their own choice, or at least due to an escalating war with management. If things get worse, Spain’s lineup could resemble a “U-23” Summer Olympics squad in New Zealand.

A total of 15 prominent Spain Women’s National Team members sent what was supposed to be a private letter to the Spanish football federation last September, stating that they were reconsidering taking part in Oceania 2023 due to the abuses and recklessness of manager Jorge Vilda. Most worrisome of all, the footballers often referred to their “emotional health,” scarcely threatening to “boycott” the FIFA World Cup over a single pressing issue, but rather declaring the firm intention to walk away from the team until further notice.

Spain’s federation made the dubious decision to make the players’ beef public over the fall and winter, subjecting the program’s highly-ranked women to criticism, and serving to shield Spain from taking too many supporters’ calls to sack Vilda prior to New Zealand. Then the federation played dirty yet again, putting out a statement that declared the footballers to be in mutiny. Officials called the athletes’ unwillingness to play for Spain in the 2023 FIFA World Cup “unprecedented in football history” and said the players “would only be allowed to return in (the) future if they apologized.” To top it all off, Spain federation recruiters began contacting youth players in the Spanish program, declaring their intentions to replace the senior team with the women’s U23 squad if necessary.

Bookmakers in New York appear to have waved-off the Spain story as soon as a few players backpedaled, listing the Spanish team as a (+650) gold medal futures pick. Those betting odds haven’t changed at all over the past week at FanDuel Sportsbook, even as the news on Spain’s player-coach relations sounds increasingly worse. Some footballers did apologize after a fashion, to be allowed back into training for the Women’s World Cup after some ambiguity on Vilda’s part when submitting short-list roster names this spring. Others appear unwilling to apologize or take part in anything until at least Vilda is sacked.

Spain’s roster is still a mess, and the coach-player conflict will cause at least several players to miss this year’s World Cup for La Roja. Spanish team captain Irene Paredes and record goal-scorer Jenni Hermoso were recently called up by mutual agreement, but Barcelona’s best distaff midfielders and defenders are probably long gone until the federation’s top names in charge of women’s soccer agree to let new faces steer the project. Veteran keeper Sandra Paños has decided to sit out Oceania. Center-back Mapi León was even moved to remark in first person, “Bob Dole” style, about the Spain women’s team: “My decision is clear. Mapi León has values to stick to. I can’t go back, there has to be changes.”

Why are the betting odds on Spain unchanged? Ockham’s Razor tells us that it’s probably due to dull wagering action this far in advance of the 2023 Women’s World Cup. If the Spain women’s story is overshadowed in U.S. sports headlines by Messi to Miami and the recent PGA Tour and LIV Golf merger, then not enough soccer gamers are yet taking part in Oceania ’23 to affect the lines on Spain or its chief rivals on the women’s pitch.

However, that doesn’t mean FanDuel’s oddsmakers couldn’t have adjusted the numbers at some point between last September and this June, surely enough time to circle back to a “secondary” betting market. FanDuel Sportsbook has a tendency to treat futures-odds shifts cautiously, as if admitting that the people who make up a sportsbook’s futures odds cannot see into the future. Team USA, for instance, often enjoys sentimentally boosted betting numbers in all sports, women’s and men’s, as the media’s attention makes teams appear more star-laden than they actually are relative to the Red, White, and Blue’s competition. Similarly, odds on United States teams can tank-out just like a stock margin after a first blush of bad news, as click-hunting reporters exaggerate a crisis that might go totally overlooked if happening to some other nation’s team. But in the end result, FanDuel gambling odds on U.S. teams accurately reflect their quality in most situations.

If the bookmakers think Spain’s very real crisis is going to blow over before the Women’s World Cup, however, that could be a serious mistake. The last 10 years have been filled with FIFA World Cup and Olympic Games squads that had conflict issues between a single individual and a coach which gummed up the works and ruined their chances. Gio Reyna and the U.S. Men’s National Team’s problems in the 2022 FIFA World Cup were enough to produce an underachieving bid in the knock-out round, and nearly a search for a new manager for the 2026 World Cup in North America.

It seems inconceivable that Spain’s controversy won’t affect its chances to mount the medal stand in Oceania, especially considering that half of the side’s starting 11 could no-show the tournament.
American oddsmakers have watched as women’s sports controversies come and go, often failing to bear any impact on the actual outcomes of events. Hope Solo and Megan Rapinoe’s personal and political controversies did not appreciably slow down the USWNT in any of its gold-medal quests of the 2010s. USA Hockey made an awful blunder late in the 2010s that resembled Spain’s soccer federation this cycle, reacting to a boycott from the U.S. women’s hockey team by sending out a call to youth players, IIHF alumni, and even retired service workers to potentially skate for Team USA in the IIHF World Championships. Sportsbooks recall that even that catastrophe didn’t prevent the reinstated players from succeeding yet again. But the public had responded with outrage to USA Hockey’s choice to play hardball, causing the United States men’s team to threaten its own boycott, and making the hockey federation cave in quickly. There was plenty of time for the U.S. skaters to get organized, and there were no debating “camps” of players still unwilling to play for the coach or the team. Imagine, if you can, the United States Women’s National Hockey Team instead losing to Kazakhstan with a group of waitresses on the ice. That’s more akin to the scenario that federation officials from Spain could be in if an entire WWC roster gives up the ghost.

Spain’s odds are losing value because there’s no upside to Vilda’s conflict with the team. There can only be a downside. At best, Spain will arrive with an incomplete roster that involves several footballers out-of-training who begrudgingly make the flight to New Zealand. The worst-case scenario is that Spain shows up with a B-list roster of inexperienced stopgaps and unhappy captains who don’t project confidence.

Team Japan should benefit from the chaos, making the Japanese a strong Group Stage futures pick, in addition to a head-to-head winner against ailing Spain as soon as full betting markets are available. Japan lost 0-1 to Spain’s 75% replacement roster in a friendly played in November, but the rest of 2022 was a banner year for Nadeshiko.

Futoshi Ikeda’s team posted 4 clean sheets in its first 7 matches, defeating Finland, South Korea, Nigeria, and Women’s World Cup host New Zealand by impressive scores. Japan whipped Canada 3-0 in the 2023 She Believes Cup before losing to the U.S. by a goal.