Women’s FIFA Game Odds and Picks: Forecasting Round 1 and the USWNT’s Group Standings in Oceania

WagerBop tries to be on the leading edge of convincing people to start watching, gaming, and gossiping about women’s sports. Most times, it’s easy to shut down any argument for why a “great” match on the women’s pitch wasn’t really great. When women’s sports haters trumpet up a men-vs-women exhibition score like “Wrexham 13, USWNT Reserves 0” as evidence that women’s tournaments won’t (or shouldn’t) keep growing in popularity, it’s like an NFL partisan saying that college football is no fun because every FBS program would lose to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Sports have always been organized to provide thrills and a rooting interest at many different speeds and levels of quality, ideally with rosters more-or-less evenly matched so that the outcome is theoretically close. The Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl last season, but they would lose to the NFL All-Pro team by 7 touchdowns. Everyone’s favorite boys’ prep team would lose to the absolute worst college team by a larger score. Who cares?

FIFA and the confederations of men’s and women’s soccer are learning how to support the Women’s World Cup better, and so are North American gaming sites. The 2019 Women’s World Cup was played amidst an international ledger of men’s bouts that included UEFA, CONCACAF, and African senior teams. This time, the Gold Cup and other distractions have gotten out of the way early, and MLS is thankfully taking its summer break just as Messi arrives to debut for Inter Miami in Leagues Cup action. (Messi playing a match on Apple TV every weekend would tend to distract from the Women’s World Cup, even if the icon himself felt bad and told supporters to see the WWC.)

But there’s nothing we can do about a time-zone inconvenience that would be just as bad if Oceania were hosting Men’s World Cup games, or even the Super Bowl. That’s still a potential hurdle for the 2023 event’s ratings.

On some frabjous day, FIFA and the International Olympic Committee are going to start hosting events in the Western Hemisphere again. Until then, fans must continue to content themselves watching ill-timed galas out of the Middle East, Eurasia, and Oceania, the latter of which is hosting 2023’s FIFA Women’s World Cup. Spectators who like to cheer for national teams at convenient hours are out-of-luck, except for the 2024 Copa América and, eventually, the 2026 men’s World Cup.

There’s some silver linings, starting with the fact that the clocks down under are so far ahead of ours. FIFA has somewhat managed to work around the axiom that natural local kickoff-times in New Zealand occur when many Westerners are sleeping. Late-starting fixtures from the Indian Ocean’s islands can be viewed in morning hours in the USA. There will even be prime-time matches broadcast in America from this year’s FIFA Women’s World Cup, with the caveat that the actual dates are going to be different for those on hand and those watching overseas.

For instance, the WWC’s opening match between Norway and co-host New Zealand is technically this Thursday, but it will happen early enough on Wednesday night that supporters in California will see the Women’s World Cup opening ceremony (albeit drastically scaled-down from the IOC’s ceremonies) just after the 10 PM news.

The only hiccup left is that Women’s World Cup Group Stage fixtures are still very lopsided on occasion, so much so that sportsbooks like FanDuel – which is otherwise jumping feet-first into a ton of hype and markets for the women’s world championship in 2023 – aren’t even putting “spread” lines on the outcomes due to fear of 12-1 and 9-0 tallies. Should it be possible to handicap a spread on a match like United States vs Vietnam, so that people can keep having fun watching in the latter half, even after Alex Morgan scores and assists on about 76 goals in 12 minutes? Yes, but it’s also not something bookmakers are used to, in a world where even EPL vs League One lines are (-1) and (-2).

There’s always a path forward for the creative gamer. Fantasy drafts and goal-scoring prop bets are more pleasurable wagers when made on teams like USA, England, and France at the Women’s World Cup, since you don’t have to tap your foot for 20 minutes at a time while waiting for teams to parry, keepers to play long balls, and finally, Salah to receive that all-important touch running toward the opposing box. Alex Morgan may not play a lot of minutes in Group Stage, but while she’s out there against Vietnam or another cupcake, Fantasy sharks who’ve drafted the Yankee football legend will be able to cheer for United States attacks at least 70% or 80% of the time.

Here’s about a dozen picks … on the WWC’s first 16 matches. Don’t bet them all, just try to win plenty of picks while the rest of the town is asleep, scarcely aware they’ll wake up a little bit poorer relative to a FIFA junkie’s stake.

FIFA Women’s World Cup: Round-Robin Matchups, Game Odds, and Forecasted Winner’s Picks

Thursday, June 20: New Zealand vs Norway (Group A, Round 1)

Is there a reason for casuals to stay up and watch New Zealand vs Norway? Snoozers may not miss out on a football match played at a championship level, but they’ll be skipping over a chance to pick from some drastically lopsided game odds. Norway is a massive (-440) money-line favorite to overwhelm Thursday’s (or Wednesday night’s) World Cup hosts in 90+ minutes. Those willing to pick the home team can find New Zealand at nearly 10-to-1 odds to win.

Note that New Zealand’s women’s team is much more accomplished than its men’s lineup. The Football Ferns are ranked 26th among FIFA’s women’s programs, and boast the services of renowned striker Hannah Wilkinson in front of veteran GK Erin Nayler. New Zealand forward Gabi Rennie of Arizona State University may be counted among the notable up-and-comers of this summer’s 32-team clash in Oceania. Yet the sportsbook’s relatively bright odds on New Zealand to win Group A’s table might be based more on the Football Ferns’ fortunate draw than the host nation’s form, which has slipped from a 16th women’s ranking to the team’s current position in 8 short years. New Zealand’s foremost challenge will be in the tournament’s debut match with “Grasshoppers” of Norway, a favorite to win Group A, but also a team getting by on reputation for some time.

Norway is 4-0-1 against New Zealand in 5 past matches, and only prevailed 2-1 in the most recent full-tackle bout back in 2020. Football Ferns are clearly a solid betting pick against multiple-goal underdog spreads. The only problem is that FanDuel’s bookmakers have handicapped only (+1) goal spotted on New Zealand’s spread, next to a 3-to-1 payoff line. The bookmakers are daring Women’s World Cup supporters to take out a high-risk, high-reward bet on the event’s hosts … or pick Norway (-1) ATS at a steep price.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (2.5) (+116) 

Thursday, July 20: Australia vs Ireland (Group B, Round 1)

WagerBop has been touting Ireland as a scrappy, dangerous ‘dog in Group B, and a bizarre scene from last week’s warm-up games seemed to confirm that Girls in Green are at least full of bright-brown vinegar. A private “friendly” between Ireland and Colombia ended 70 minutes early after Irish midfielder Denise O’Sullivan was taken to hospital for a shin wound. Colombia had already taken 2 yellow cards when O’Sullivan sustained injury in the 19th minute, and the match quickly devolved into a tackling and shoving match, as if Millwall were playing Sheffield in the FA Cup instead of a fixture focused on training and devoid of fouls. Referees called off the bout after 23 minutes.

We’ll have to check the record books to see if FIFA has ever canceled any World Cup match, whether men’s or women’s, friendly or official, once footballers were already on the pitch, and the game was in motion. But pending the injury status of O’Sullivan, there’s more encouragement from Friday’s ugly scene than meets the eye. Girls in Green are well prepared to get under opponents’ skin in Oceania. Heck, they’re doing it already.

Don’t expect to find Ireland at a generous line ATS for Round 1 vs Australia. As with the first overnight match to begin 2023’s Women’s World Cup, the sportsbook offers upstart Ireland at fat (+950) odds to upset Team Australia and post a 1-0-0 Group Stage mark, contrasted by a stingy (+1) and (+250) market for Ireland to cover against the spread.

World Cup co-host Australia is the most recent women’s team to host Alex Morgan’s side on home soil and manage anything but a meek defeat. Forward Kyah Simon’s goal at the 88-minute mark of a friendly played in November 2021 gave Matildas a watershed 1-1 draw with the United States Women’s National Team, a score that would come to signify the Stars & Stripes “slump” of 2021-22, as the USWNT went scoreless in its next match.

Bookmakers are convinced that despite Republic of Ireland’s outstanding record of clean-sheet wins in 2022 and 2023, the host Matildas are fated to win a tough, but inexorable battle. Those betting Australia-to-cover (-1) get standard (-110) odds. But an Irish upset would be the sort of result that doesn’t feel such a surprise on Friday.

WagerBop’s Pick: Republic of Ireland and Draw (Double Chance Prop Bet) (+270) 

Thursday, July 20: Nigeria vs Canada (Group B, Round 1)

Canada is a 1-to-4 favorite to beat Team Nigeria in the prime-time debut of Oceania ’23. It’s the Maple Leaf’s enduring World #7 ranking in women’s soccer, not simple sentimentality from North American sportsbook users, that has Canada’s (+200) odds to win Group B towering over every team’s in the quartet with the exception of well-regarded Norway.

In fact, the Canadians would probably be much steeper than a (+3400) betting pick to win the Women’s World Cup, except that the team captain Christine Sinclair is 40 years old and could run out of steam if Team Canada is paired against a titan like the United States or England in the semi-finals of August. Sinclair’s youthful supporting cast (nearly everyone playing in Oceania is a rookie by comparison) still manufactures an intimidating enough attack that Nigeria-Canada goal-total bets come with (-190) odds on Over (2.5) tallies. WagerBop recommends a prop bet that should prevail whether Nigeria scores and circles its wagons trying to hold a slim lead, or whether Canada takes a dominating position and then plays to preserve a clean sheet throughout the 2nd half.

WagerBop’s Pick: Both Teams to Score (“No” Proposition) (-118) 

Friday, July 21: Philippines vs Switzerland (Group A, Round 1)

Team Switzerland ought to have a better reputation in women’s FIFA, given the club’s number of footballers from prestigious professional brands of Germany and the English Super League. But the team bowed out of the knock-out round without a goal in their only Women’s World Cup appearance of the 2010s. Switzerland is aging in goal while fielding inexperienced players at key defensive spots, helping to result in the nation’s 4-to-1 underdog betting picks to reach the quarter-final round, according to FanDuel.

Still, the Swiss count as this FIFA World Cup’s first opening-odds favorite to win by multiple goals. Group A’s remaining underdog bid from the Philippines draws the cheapest futures picks of the flagship group, and Switzerland’s (-1100) money-line odds are backed up by a (-2) market ATS for a match to begin late Thursday night in America.

WagerBop’s Pick: Switzerland (“Away Team”) to Score Over (2.5) Goals (-132)

Friday, July 21: Spain vs Costa Rica (Group C, Round 1)

No less than 15 members of Spain’s senior women’s team sent what was supposed to be a private letter to the Spanish football federation last fall, reconsidering taking part in Oceania 2023 due to the abuses and recklessness of manager Jorge Vilda. Spain’s federation made the dubious decision to make the players’ beef public over the fall and winter, subjecting the program’s highly-ranked women to criticism, and serving to shield Spain from taking too many supporters’ calls to sack Vilda prior to New Zealand. Bad feelings still simmer as Spain determines to go forward with the coach regardless.

FIFA odds managers appear to have waved off the Spain story as soon as a few players backpedaled a bit, listing the Spanish team as a (+650) gold medal futures pick. Spain’s sportsbook odds haven’t changed much, if at all, at FanDuel Sportsbook, even as the news on Spain’s player-coach relations gets increasingly worse. Some footballers did apologize after a fashion, to be allowed back into training for the Women’s World Cup after some ambiguity from Vilda when submitting short-list roster names in May and June. Others appear unwilling to take part until at least Vilda is fired. Spanish captain Irene Paredes and record goal-scorer Jenni Hermoso have been called up by mutual agreement, but veteran goalkeeper Sandra Paños has decided to sit out Oceania. Nevertheless, the long-time FIFA contenders are also mammoth (-20000) favorites over Costa Rica.

Spain’s odds will ultimately lose value going into this weekend’s kickoff, if merely because there’s no betting upside to Vilda’s conflict with the team. There can only be a downside. That doesn’t mean the opening match of Group Stage is necessarily the best time for gamblers to take advantage. There are notably no goal-spread markets on FanDuel Sportsbook for Costa Rica-Spain, and only a small tab of prop bets on the bout.

WagerBop’s Pick: No Recommended Bets

Friday, July 21: United States vs Vietnam (Group E, Round 1)

There’s just one thing to say about the USWNT’s match with Vietnam. With Vietnam …

(sound of a scuffle and microphone feedback)

… and that’s all we’ve got to say about that.

No, really, there can be little or no actual betting value in the United States’ humongous (-20000) favorite’s money-line odds over Vietnam in Round 1. The match’s game day spread could be as crazy as USA (-6), if the sportsbook is even pressured into offering one when Friday rolls around, and supporters are ready to cheer for hat-tricks in prime time.

But for some strange reason, FanDuel has left the USWNT’s (-310) odds to win Group E at a manageable price. The squad’s truly dangerous foes are toiling in other foursomes, and cannot affect the outcome for Group Stage odds fat enough to be bet without a parlay.

Alex Morgan’s team should rack up a massive goal-differential edge right away vs Vietnam. The Netherlands couldn’t whip the USA in 2019’s Women’s World Cup, and its lineup has been diminished by turnover and circumstances in the years since. FanDuel’s futures odds on Group Stage play create a unique chance for speculators to bet on the United States women with profits in mind, instead of the usual plurality of good-luck wagers.

WagerBop’s Pick: Team USA Outright Winner in Group E (-310) 

Saturday, July 22: Zambia vs Japan (Group C, Round 1)

Japan should benefit from Spain’s problems, making the Japanese a strong Group Stage futures bet in Group C, in addition to a potential head-to-head winner against ailing Spain as soon as betting markets are available.

Japan lost 0-1 to Spain in a friendly played last November, but the rest of 2022 was a banner year for Nadeshiko. Manager Futoshi Ikeda’s squad posted 4 clean sheets in its first 7 matches, defeating Finland, South Korea, Nigeria, and Women’s World Cup host New Zealand by impressive scores. Japan whipped Canada 3-0 in the 2023 She Believes Cup before losing to the United States by a single tally.

Saturday’s match between Japan and Zambia will kick off as part of Friday’s late-night entertainment in America, the perfect chance for betting sharks to wager on an overlooked and under-analyzed FIFA contest. More’s the pity that the crafty bookmakers of FanDuel Sportsbook are a step ahead of the best spread picks again, taking (-2) goals away from Nadeshiko in spite of Japan’s reasonable (-600) favorite’s money-line odds.

Zambia’s midfield and back line are full of weak spots, which allowed the alternative Far East contender South Korea to clobber Copper Queens 10-2 in a pair of matches this spring. Then again, it could be a mistake to sleep on the Group C underdog’s attack. Zambia has scored an amazing 8 goals in training friendlies since arriving in Oceania, and beat Germany 3-2 on Friday in an outcome likely to cause brow-beating in Berlin. New York can’t be accused of whiffing on the angle, as FanDuel has reacted to Team Zambia’s exciting high-risk style by placing “minus” odds on picks of Over (3.5) total goals scored. Prop odds on both Japan and Zambia to score at least a goal, in contrast, remain cautious at (-138).

WagerBop’s Pick: Japan (With Parlay) (-600)

Saturday, July 22: England vs Haiti (Group D, Round 1)

Though the famed Yankee women must deal with 2019 World Cup Final nemesis Holland in Group E, it’s Lionesses of Team England that arguably face the harder of draws between the “Tea Party rivalry” teams who could meet in another title tilt on August 20th.

Lionesses of England will begin versus Les Grenadières of Haiti, an inconsistent but dangerous squad that fared okay against Team USA in a 2022 CONCACAF tournament, then blanked host Mexico 3-0 in the next bout. England is FanDuel’s (-6000) favorite to defeat Haiti in 90+ minutes on Saturday, a very thin betting line by any measure, but significantly “longer” than the United States’ and Spain’s odds to win in Round 1.

WagerBop’s Pick: England to Lead (“Halftime Result” Prop Bet) (With Parlay) (-650)

Saturday, July 22: Denmark vs China (Group D, Round 1)

China was once among the USWNT’s foremost rivals in women’s FIFA. As of 2023, the side holds a humble world ranking of #14 that’s threatening to plunge further. That doesn’t make Steel Roses a money-line underdog against everyone in Group D, yet Denmark scarcely presents a fortunate opening-round draw for a team seeking momentum.
Denmark has beaten Norway, Sweden, and Japan with nice clean-sheet outcomes in the calendar year. FanDuel has responded by casting the Danes as a (-260) favorite to beat China, as well as a (-1) pick ATS in a match with (-132) odds on Over (2.5) total goals.

WagerBop’s Pick: Denmark (-250) 

Sunday, July 23: Sweden vs South Africa (Group G, Round 1)

Sweden’s 1-to-4 betting line to win Group G is representative of how women’s national programs still lag behind the World Cup reputations of key nations. Though the Swedes’ issues have shown themselves already in 2023’s friendlies, the trend hasn’t resulted in a groundswell of betting action on relatively low-ranked Group G rivals Argentina and Italy, even though men’s soccer gamblers would be all over the Italians and Argentines as upstart picks if a vulnerable favorite sat at thinner odds.

There may, in fact, be a handful of unlucky casual bettors who have picked Argentina based on the country’s mad success in the 2022 Men’s World Cup, not realizing that there was a “W” next to the nation’s game odds for Oceania. But not often enough to sway the group-winner proposition odds on Sweden.

Tre Kronor’s first opponent South Africa has a second-rate reputation in both genders of FIFA competition, helping to cast Sweden as a (-1600) bet to win another overnight contest for viewers state-side. Goals are again expected, with O/U odds slanted to the high side.

WagerBop’s Pick: Sweden (-2) ATS (+100) 

Sunday, July 23: The Netherlands vs Portugal (Group E, Round 1)

The Netherlands may be considered Group E’s “sexy underdog” betting pick at 3-to-1 odds to prevail over Group E’s table. Then again, doing so would entail beating the United States in an elimination game. Holland could play with desperation not to fall too far behind to United States strikers in goal differential on Sunday. Portugal may not be the best opponent for a wide-open game plan, however, as a 5-to-1 ‘dog in its own right.

Sportsbooks expect 3+ goals scored between Holland and Portugal, offering just (-130) payoff odds on picks of Over (2.5) total tallies. If London and Las Vegas are proven correct about offense vs defense in Oceania, the WWC may produce enough thrills to keep all of us awake.

WagerBop Pick: No Recommended Bets

Sunday, July 23: France vs Jamaica (Group F, Round 1)

Group F’s winner will come down to a goal-differential decision if Brazil and France draw in what should be an evenly-paced match in Round 2. That scenario could favor Team Brazil, for the Green & Yellow has been giving every indication of a goal-scoring attack that’s ready to break out against its next truly vulnerable foes. Brazil has scored goals against the highly-vaunted American, Japanese, German, and English teams in 2023, nearly knocking-off Team England in a competitive London match early this year.

France is too experienced on the women’s pitch to go hunting for stats in a tournament where half of the Group Stage teams qualify for knockout play. But the sportsbook odds are wild for France vs Jamaica on Sunday, with Les Bleues drawing a prohibitive (-4000) money-line to win, and standard Over (2.5) picks handicapped at a crazy (-800).
If the French women are looking for a solid clean sheet and not a hectic 12-2 romp in Round 1, you wouldn’t know it from looking at the FanDuel markets on Group F’s first UEFA vs CONCACAF clash. Bettors will even have the rare chance to pick Under (3.5) total goals against 2-to-1 payout odds for France-Jamaica, unless the bet proves to be a popular gambit leading up to Group F’s kickoff. It could still lose to the scoreboard, if France sends a shot across Team Brazil’s bow by scorching the less seasoned side in a 5-to-10 goal blow-out.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (4.5) (-126) 

Monday, July 24: Italy vs Argentina (Group G, Round 1)

Italy’s distaff lineup should be considered a live underdog indeed. After all, the women’s team is actually qualifying for FIFA World Cup competition. Yet the limpness of Italy’s attacking game of the 2020s is illustrated by how few of Italy’s players are recruited away from the homeland to sign nicer contracts than those offered by Serie A’s sister clubs.

FanDuel’s (-250) odds on  Italy to beat Argentina in Round 1 are another sign of skepticism. Against world champion Team Argentina of men’s FIFA, a 1-to-2 betting line would be a sign of tremendous respect, even in the fresh absence of Messi. But against Argentina’s 28th-ranked women’s side, on which aging goalkeeper Vanina Correa and 19-year-old Chiara Singarella are the 2 most notable back-liners, the same odds are illustrative that Italy’s got something to prove this summer. Oceania ’23 could also mark a pivotal point for Italian striker Cristiana Girelli, who scored a hat trick against Jamaica in the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup, but will be 37 years of age by the next turn in 2027.

WagerBop Pick: Italy (-1) ATS (+140)

Monday, July 24: Germany vs Morocco (Group H, Round 1)

WagerBop readers should not expect the Morocco women’s team to follow up on 2022’s glory in Qatar, and upset the All-Star crew of women’s Bundesliga when Germany meets Morocco to open Group H’s slate on July 24th. It’s down to South Korea and Colombia to try to knock off the Germans in the matches to come after that. Germany is a whopping money-line favorite to win the Monday meeting at (-3500) odds over Morocco.

WagerBop’s Pick: No Recommended Bets

Monday, July 24: Brazil vs Panama (Group F, Round 1)

Panama’s heroics in the CONCACAF Men’s Gold Cup have not inspired a round of underdog picks on Canal Girls to upset Brazil in Group F’s second match. The potentiality of a goal-differential tiebreaker between Brazil and France in Oceania’s final Group Stage standings is a tricky angle for sportsbook sharks, since coaches know that a 2nd-place finish will advance their team to the Round of 16, while FanDuel bettors hoping to keep a goal-differential tiebreaker in their back pockets while wagering on Group Futures odds must hope that teams are so keen on a top seed that they play with forward numbers.

Panama’s not drawing much money-line action at (+6000) odds to win. However, other game odds for Monday morning’s action may take cautious turns as Brazil’s tactics are analyzed. Canaries have allowed less than 10 FIFA Women’s World Cup goals-against since 2007.

WagerBop’s Pick: No Recommended Bets 

Monday, July 24: Colombia vs South Korea (Group G, Round 1)

FIFA should be thrilled with how outstanding its prime time (read: sleepy next-day mornings in Oceania) schedule has turned out for the first bouts of Group Stage. The Canadians and the USA are featured at convenient hours for supporters back home, while arguably, Denmark’s attempt at making a debut statement against a former powerhouse in Team China will occur in “AM prime time” hours on Saturday at 8 AM Eastern time, also known as “The Price is Right” hours on many affiliates throughout the weekdays. However, stories of Friday’s rancor between Ireland and Colombia could threaten to pour water in FIFA’s champagne. Will the Colombians engage in even more borderline tactics now that Round-of-16 qualification is on the line? More importantly for FanDuel gamers, do such fireworks show that Colombia is primed to play, or unsure and desperate for a spark?

We’ll argue the second angle, if only because it would take more than an unkind “friendly” to hold back a trend that’s been trending for a while. Colombia’s Powerpuff Girls have taken post-COVID strides as Korea has treaded water, the former program manufacturing an invincible streak throughout nearly all last year while earning invitations to valuable friendlies with the FIFA women’s world champions on U.S. grounds.

Colombian women’s teams’ attacks are more lively in form and execution than those of Colombia’s offensively challenged men’s football team. It’s also critical that Powerpuff Girls manage to be as stingy as Néstor Lorenzo’s lineup without having to circle the wagons so often.

Odds-makers aren’t concerned over Friday’s fracas, giving Colombia (+135) favorite’s odds to beat Korea. On the other hand, Korea’s (+185) odds as of the weekend prior to Oceania’s kickoff make Monday night’s clash the tightest of all handicaps from Round 1. For once, the book forecasts a stingy match, with minus odds on Under (2.5).

WagerBop’s Pick: Colombia (+135)