Which Blunder Was Worse? – JR Smith or the Spurs

Remember this play?

The play that decided Game 1. pic.twitter.com/e1UeOv57Rn

— ESPN (@espn) June 1, 2018

It was the biggest blunder in recent NBA Playoffs history. It demoralized LeBron and his teammates beyond belief, devastating any chance the Cavs might have had in the series.

By dribbling the ball back out after his rebound with 4.7 seconds left, JR Smith reduced the Cavs’ odds of winning Game 1 from 54.7% to 12.6%.

Where did I get those numbers? Well, it’s not super scientific, but I believe it is pretty accurate. When Smith came down with that board, he had two options: put up a shot or pass it out to a wide-open LeBron for a 3.

According to JR Smith’s career shot chart, he had a 57.4% chance of hitting that look from inside the paint. This was option #1. The other was kicking it out to LeBron for a 3 from the top of the key. LeBron is 34.9% from there in his career, but was shooting 3-7 (42.8%) from deep in that game.

I averaged his 34.9% career mark with his 42.8% game mark to estimate that James had a 38.9% chance of making that hypothetical shot. Since I figured the odds were 50/50 that Smith would shoot or pass it out, the math becomes this: 50% times 57.4% plus 50% times 38.9% gives us a 48.2% chance that Cleveland wins in regulation.

If Smith does one of these two things, the Cavs have a good shot of winning. Of course, he did neither. The game went to overtime … in Oakland. Road teams in NBA Playoff games have an all-time record of 54-193 (12.6%).

It is still possible for Cleveland to pull out a W, but not very likely. Multiply the 51.8% chance that Smith or James miss their shot to the 12.6% chance that they pull out a miracle in OT and you get an extra 6.5%. Adding this to the 48.2% chance that either player makes a shot at the end of regulation gives you a final mark of 54.7%.

These are Cleveland’s odds to win at the moment Smith comes down with that rebound. Hence, by choking, Smith put his team in a very grim situation – both for the game and the series as a whole.

In NBA Playoffs history, teams who win Game 1 of 7 go on to win the series 76.7% of the time. Win Game 1 at home (like Golden State did) and you will win 85.3% of the time. Win Game 1 on the road (like the Cavs very well could have without Smith’s blunder) and you win the series 53.2% of the time.

Ok, math time. Bear with me. When Smith grabs that board, the Cavs have a 54.7% chance of winning Game 1, right? Teams who win Game 1 on the road have a 53.2% chance of winning the series – giving Cleveland a 29.1% chance of winning the NBA Championship at the moment when Smith’s feet hit the floor.

By neither shooting nor passing to James, Cleveland’s odds to win Game 1 fell to 12.6%, causing their Championship odds to fall to 6.7%.

One boneheaded play by JR Smith made it 22.4% less likely his team would win an NBA Championship.

Then this happened on Saturday night …

It wasn’t the NBA Finals, but heck, it was Game 7! Some would argue that this was an even bigger situation than Game 1 of the NBA Finals because there is no recovering should you lose.

This was not a case of one player making a misjudged snap decision. This was an entire team totally forgetting the situation, standing around for 24 seconds, and giving up on everything they had worked for since October.

Here are the numbers.

As a 7-seed in the Western Conference, it was unusual for San Antonio to make it this far. 7-seeds have won just a single series in the past 10 Western Conference postseasons.

Early on, it was looking like the 2-seed Denver was finally finished playing with its food. The Nuggets claimed an early lead with 10:13 to go in the 1st quarter and never looked back – holding a 17-point lead as late as 3:29 in the 3rd.

Figuring out the chances of winning with this much time left is exponentially more complex than determining the chances of a last-second shot going in, so I will defer to the experts on this one. Inpredictable says that teams down 17 with 3:29 to go in the 3rd quarter possess just a 4.8% chance of winning.

The Spurs began relentlessly chipping away – getting the deficit to within 2 points – only to find themselves down 4 with 25 seconds remaining, Nuggets’ ball.

Ok, so this situation ain’t great, but it’s doable.

Nikola Jokic is the man dribbling the clock out at half court. He is a good free throw shooter – 82.1% this season and 82.8% in his career. Let’s say the Spurs rush up and foul him as soon as he crosses the timeline and that the foul occurs with 20 seconds remaining.

There are now 3 different scenarios that could unfold, right? Jokic will make either 0, 1, or 2 of his shots from the charity stripe. I’ll use Jokic’s free throw percentage from this season to calculate the odds of each scenario occurring.

There is a 67.4% chance that an 82.1% shooter makes two-in-a-row. This would put the Spurs down 6 with 20 seconds left.

There is a 29.4% chance that Jokic splits his 2 attempts. The Spurs would be down just 5 in this scenario.

As such a good shooter, Jokic has just a 3.2% chance of missing both. This is obviously the most optimal scenario for San Antonio – putting them down just 4 points with 20 seconds left.

With such little time remaining, neither of those 3 scenarios are particularly bright and sunny for the Spurs. Here are the odds from Inpredictable.

Deficit	% Chance of Winning	% Chance of Occurring
4	3.7%	67.4%
5	1.3%	29.4%
6	0.5%	3.2%

At this point, the Spurs actually had a better shot of winning back in the 3rd quarter when they were down 17. You may think that last-second comebacks occur all the time in the NBA, but that is likely your confirmation bias tricking you.

Each time a miraculous comeback occurs, it gets repeated and talked about over and over and you remember it. You pay no special attention to the times a team does not blow a late lead.

What do these numbers mean? At most, the Spurs’ odds to win the game decreased by 3.7% due to not fouling late. In reality, it might of only been half a percent. Compare this to the 42.1% drop in odds after JR Smith’s blunder, and it really does not seem bad.

So what did this blunder do for San Antonio’s title chances? Well, I’ve got news for ya … they weren’t great to begin with.

We just found that the Spurs’ odds to win this game before the blunder were 3.7%, at best. Let’s say San Antonio fouled, Jokic missed both, and the Spurs came back and won Game 7. They would face the Trail Blazers next.

The Spurs met the Blazers 4 times this season. In each meeting, the home team was favored and the home team won. On average, the Spurs were +175.5 on the road and -117.5 at home. This comes out to average odds of +129.

I ran +129 through our handy formula to find that the Spurs have a 43.7% chance of beating the Blazers in a single game. This is not an exact science because the Spurs’ true chances of winning would fluctuate game-to-game, but I calculate San Antonio’s odds to win this hypothetical series at 36.4% (here is how I calculated that).

So, if the Spurs had only a 3.7% chance of winning Game 7 and then a 36.4% chance of beating Portland, San Antonio held a 1.3% chance of advancing to the Western Conference Finals before the blunder.

Factor in the two additional series that San Antonio would have to win after that to claim a championship, and you can see their title odds pre-blunder were already far below 1%. If we say that the Spurs would have a 33.3% chance in each subsequent series (I’m sure it’s actually worse than that), this puts their pre-blunder title odds at 0.15%, at best.

JR Smith’s goof caused the Cavs’ title chances to decrease by 22.4%. The Spurs’ lapse only cost them a tenth of a percent. This makes JR Smith’s blunder 149 times more costly to his team!

Smith’s blunder was the straw that broke the camel’s back – forcing LeBron to leave Cleveland for greener pastures out west. The Cavaliers nosedived in 2018-19 as a result, winning just 19 games.

The jury is still out on what this loss will do to the Spurs’ franchise, but can it be any worse than what Smith put Cleveland through?