NFL betting can be one of the most fun and most challenging things in the sports betting world. But nothing is more fun than being a winning NFL bettor. In order to become a winning NFL bettor, though, you’ll need to set a goal or a benchmark that will help you to know where you need to be in order to be a profitable bettor. Knowing one key percentage will help you set that benchmark to make sure that you are on the right track toward profitability.
In NFL betting, the key number that you want to look for is 52.38%. That is the percentage of bets at the standard –110 odds that you will need to win in order to break even. So if you bet on the NFL over an extended period of time, betting $110 to win $100 in each of those bets, and your win percentage is higher than 52.38%, you will make a profit over the course of your time placing those bets.
To reach that desired percentage, you will need to have a knowledge of things like NFL betting trends such as how teams perform as double-digit favorites. You’ll also need to know about current teams and how they stack up against one another, using statistics, injury reports, and other important information to set yourself up in the most advantageous positions possible. It might not be as easy or fun as just picking who you think is going to win, but to be a winning bettor long-term, you’ll want to arm yourself with as much knowledge as possible.
The NFL changes from week to week, which is another thing you’ll have to keep in mind when attempting to exceed the magic 52.38% number. Being able to adjust your expectations in a rational and realistic way after each week is another step you can take to maximize your chances of profits.
Of course, there are ways to increase your chances of making money in the long-term before you get to breaking down what has happened on the field. One such way is to take advantage of reduced juice betting on sites that offer it to their players. This type of betting consists of sportsbooks requiring players to put down slightly less on each game to earn the same payout. So instead of having to bet $110 to win $100 on one NFL bet, a site might only make you put down $105 to win $100. While the extra $5 doesn’t seem like much, it adds up in a big way if you’re someone who is placing wagers over the course of a long period of time, and can save you substantially in the long run.
There is also the option of avoiding “action bets” or bets you don’t feel strongly about but want to bet on to have some action anyway. These often come during standalone games like Thursday Night Football or Monday Night Football, where there isn’t anything else to watch. Avoiding these can be a big savings as well.
Jay is a sports writer who has been featured on Deadspin, BetAdvisor. In addition to penning wager previews and features, Jay has broadcasted for MAAC school as well as ESPN Radio’s Northeastern Affiliates.
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