Week 7 NFC and AFC Forecast: Prime-Time NFL Odds and Miami vs Pittsburgh Point Spread Pick

We try to avoid making Fantasy vs Gambling comparisons at WagerBop, partly because the logic and cheering patterns of each game are so opposite on occasion that it’s hard to make analogies without anyone getting confused. (Wait, you mean I’m not supposed to be glad whenever my pick goes down by 14 points in the 1st half?)

But right now, it’s hard to overlook the NFL’s “Defense and Special Teams” Fantasy stats, or rather, the lack of such numbers being produced by several nominally contending teams.

Even the Buffalo Bills defense, lauded as a wrecking ball after whipping the L.A. Rams in Week 1, produced barely any turnovers or truly-exciting plays for weeks on end, until finally coming to life again in the defensive backfield against Kansas City. It seems that Buffalo’s happy to play deep-coverage schemes and sit patiently against average teams, then bring pressure and play aggressively against the best opponents on the schedule. Not a bad plan at all.

The greater theme is that cautious defense is leading to half-time leads being protected that would normally be vulnerable, while other games involve favorites that cannot pull away and secure the win due to a stubborn, conventional, solid opposing ‘D such as the New York Giants in the Big Blue’s upset win over Baltimore in Week 6. NFL games are getting “slotted” into an early 10-point or 14-point margin and then standing still from an against-the-spread POV.

That’s one reason why it’s a little crazy for WagerBop to like so many point-spread underdogs in the NFL this week, in addition to high-side Over/Under picks, but we’re thinking that wild shoot-out offense could have a last hurrah before defenses tighten down in the fall air.

Detroit has given up 170 gosh-darn points and still carries an O/U under 50 total points this week. That’s despite Dak Prescott probably appearing in the contest. If that seems like an elementary mistake on a betting line, though, just wait until you see the inflated line on upcoming prime-time action that reads like a little kid’s been touting the Big Ten.

First, here’s a rare TNF pick with fingers-crossed it won’t be a total crap-fest like Denver and Indianapolis representing the same dodgy brand.

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (Thursday Night Football)

Fantasy speculators can attest that the Cardinals are a feast-or-famine DFS team. Arizona QB Kyler Murray is a perfect example of the hot-and-cold outcomes for competitors who DFS draft the superstars of Glendale. Murray finished in the top-10 of NFL Fantasy quarterbacks in 2021 with 3700+ passing yards and nearly 30 combined touchdowns. But the electric dual-threat faded with injuries and confidence issues as the season progressed.

Unfortunately, those who wager bets on the Cardinals must ride the same roller-coaster, and it has been plunging downward for a few weeks during a tentative 2-4 start for the Big Red. Murray’s offense looked eerily similar to the 2022-23 Broncos while losing last Sunday to the Seahawks, each unit a fast and talented group that simply cannot get out of its own way, especially in the Red Zone. Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona’s head coach, made a tactical error by passing-up 3 easy field goal chances in a low-scoring bout before falling to Pete Carroll.

Analytics have made the NFLs new “by the book” 4th-down call a green-light if the line-to-gain is under 5 yards away. But the Cardinals’ Kingsbury overlooked that the visiting team can become downtrodden and flat if it falls behind by 10+ points, something that the Cards still have happen way too often by halftime. As in the latter, losing years of former HC Ken Whisenhunt’s reign in Glendale, Kingsbury may be making the lethal error of coaching a chalkboard instead of players.

National Football League odds-makers don’t ken the glum headlines in the desert. At least not if we’re going by Thursday’s somewhat surprising odds, which have Arizona favored by (-2.5) points on the spread against a Saints team coming off a shoot-out loss.

It is clear that psychological considerations hold sway in Sin City. The Saints had the Bengals game slip-out of their fingers despite a glorious chance to beat the defending AFC champs, and the Cardinals could sorely use a game against a heartbroken opponent that’s preparing with little warning. Bookmakers imagine that Murray will out-perform Old Gold’s “old pro” lineup of quarterbacks, and the healed linebacker J.J. Watt will wreak havoc on the New Orleans offense in front of a loud, desperate throng at the Big Toaster.

But the Arizona Cardinals are on short hours as well, and the Saints brings a dual-threat QB of their own to the contest in Taysom Hill, a veteran spot-player of the sort the Cardinals’ flaky defense has problems containing. We cannot pick the Cardinals to cover favorite’s spreads in good conscience unless Arizona quits matching the Denver Broncos in self-destruction.

WagerBop’s Pick: Saints ATS (+2.5)

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, October 23)

The Detroit Lions have seen what might’ve been a promising start go awry in 2022-23, which means it’s no surprise to see the Dallas Cowboys favored at (-7) on home turf with QB Dak Prescott attempting to return in the contest. What is surprising to see is FanDuel Sportsbook’s cautious O/U (48.5) point total market on the scrum, not “league norm” as a pick at near-50 points, but maybe abnormally low for Week 7’s particular line.

The Lions’ porous defense could hardly be expected to stop Cooper Rush‘s offense, let alone Prescott’s in an away game at Jerry World. However, Dallas can’t escape its institutional trend of letting underdogs score points and hang around for 60 minutes, either, especially with 200% of the media’s attention focused on the Silver Star’s winning campaign, and Jones’ everlasting glare from his luxury box just adding to the intense stress.

We are anticipating a final score such as Cowboys 31, Lions 24, which is a heck of a “Thanksgiving shoot-out” type of forecast next to a paltry O/U line in the 40s.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (48.5)

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, October 23)

Succeeding the New York Giants’ upset win in Week 6, the Ravens (-6.5) are expected to go back to the drawing board and methodically defeat a vulnerable Browns club in a game predicted to produce about (45.5) total points.

WagerBop isn’t sure that it’s not time for Lamar Jackson‘s offense to open-up again. The Baltimore Ravens are essentially a dual-playbook team as much as a “dual-threat” offense, and love to run 5 WRs against secondaries that John Harbaugh thinks are ripe for the picking. The 2-4 Browns defense is so overwhelmed as of Week 7 that the Dawgs have taken part in reinvigorating several opposing teams, including Atlanta and New England.

If the trend continues, Las Vegas should be bottling and selling the Browns defense as a pick-me-up for long-suffering patients, not predicting tight defensive battles. Look for a wild halftime score like “27-13” that could threaten to cover the O/U line all on its own.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (45.5)

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, October 23)

If the mindset of nationally-televised games is supposed to be an odds-making angle – and this week’s Thursday Night Football picks indicate by-numbers that it is – we might expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be a “pick ’em” even-odds gambling pick at San Francisco, as opposed to the (-3) point-spread favorite that Kansas City is on Sunday.

By and large, you can’t lose a more “meaningful” regular season game than Kansas City did against guest Buffalo in Week 6. Buffalo’s powerhouse 2nd-half performance vaults the Bills over the Chiefs on just about every NFL Power Rankings ledger in the country (outside the Show-Me State and eastern Kansas, of course) and makes KC’s immediate schedule look even tougher, with improving Tennessee and Jacksonville coming up.

Nonetheless the coaching philosophy of Chiefs’ skipper Andy Reid is strongly focused on rebounding, almost to the extent that Reid should be coaching a basketball team. Rebounding from bad plays, bad quarters, bad halves…and most of all, coming back after bad losses. If the past 3-4 years of record is any indication, KC QB Pat Mahomes‘ team is about to set its teeth and begin re-climbing the ladder of AFC contention once again.

The San Francisco 49ers may be staring at yet another season of unfulfilled promises. San Fran technically “co-led” the NFC West at 3-3, but the much-heralded 49er defense allowed career bubble-starter Marcus Mariota a nearly immaculate day in last weekend’s 28-14 loss to the .500 Atlanta Falcons, forcing just 1 incomplete pass-attempt and giving up all kinds of yards and Red Zone touchdowns to the option play.

That is embarrassing for a team that recently led the Super Bowl after 3 quarters, with a dominating defense and a dynamic ground game to call its own.

The 49ers may have defeated the defending Rams 24-9 a few weeks ago, but that’s among the only quality Ws that banged-up San Francisco has achieved since July. In fact, SF almost appears to have burned themselves out in early division action, believing in hearts and minds that the NFC West would be the “SEC” of the NFL again in 2022-23.

Regrettably, those kinds of trends are a lot more temporal in the year-to-year pattern of NFL competition. Every single year is a new deal, as Bill Parcells said.

Besides, the Rams have begun the season in such mediocre form that we’re not sure victories over the hungover Mountain Goats amount to much of a positive angle on a wager.

WagerBop’s Pick: Chiefs ATS (-3)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (Sunday Night Football)

While we’re on the subject of coaching, Pittsburgh HC Mike Tomlin’s “do not go gently” maxim has the humble Pittsburgh Steelers making noise against all odds – excuse the pun – and the Black & Gold just snapped a losing streak by upsetting Tampa Bay in Week 6.

So why would the Steelers (+7) be a TD underdog ATS and a state highway-like (+270) on the moneyline prior to what should be a familiar plane-ride to Florida? Especially given that Miami’s upstart ‘Fins have already dealt with an awful injury at quarterback?

Bookmakers are optimistic for the return of Dolphins’ starter Tua Tagovailoa to the fold, and hopeful that the athletic QB’s tuned-up biorhythms will help Tagovailoa recover from a concussion, far faster than it took Kurt Warner and other passers of NFL legend.

But if it took Warner 5 years, a broken arm and collarbone, and a no-huddle offense featuring wide-receiver Larry Fitzgerald to finally regain his form as a National Football League QB, we’re imagining that it could take more than a single fully-active practice week and a city full of well-wishers to get Tagovailoa back to par as an elite starting QB.

The Steelers aren’t the kind of team you want your quarterback-in-recovery to have to play, not with Pittsburgh’s merciless approach to blitzing and beating-up a passer in the pocket. Following a loss to the Vikings, you can imagine a lot of drama behind the scenes in the Dolphin front-office as coaches were unwisely pressured to rush Tua back.

WagerBop’s Pick: Steelers ATS (+7)

Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (Monday Night Football)

The Bills’ instant-classic win in Week 6 may have saved NFL odds on marquee games from turning cautious and dull. The league has hosted several over-hyped, nationally televised flops in the last few weeks, including a Thursday Night Football game that will go down among the worst ever produced. Despite dozens of extended drives and numerous chances for the Broncos and Colts to score TDs, the struggling clubs played to a sorry 12-9 finish before an aghast crowd at Denver. When the Broncos finally tried to open things up and seal the deal with a surprise touchdown, QB Russell Wilson promptly threw an INT in the end zone that ruined Denver’s opportunity to triumph.

Sunday night’s game is forecast to total around O/U (44.5) points, not too shabby under National Football League timing rules. But the odds-makers are not optimistic that Monday Night Football will be so exciting, predicting the Patriots and the Bears to score just (39).

FanDuel Sportsbook expects New England HC Bill Belichick to coach circles around the visiting Bears, or else bookmakers have made a childish math mistake that leaves an easy ATS pick available for the taking. Patriots’ (-7.5) point spread odds might look ordinary in an expected high-scoring game between underdog and favorite. But for a game that’s also forecast to produce under 40 points, New England’s odds can only be overpriced at that number. It is equivalent to a game between Big Ten stalwarts in which “Syracuse” is favored over “Minnesota” at the badly-inflated line of (-7.5) points in a game that’ll finish 17-14.

The Hoodie is the most experienced head coach of all in the NFL. He has survived an early-season slump to surface again in 2022-23 and badly needs to surpass .500 on the W/L ledger. New England’s coaching staff would be (quietly) pleased to win by a field goal or a safety.

WagerBop’s Pick: Bears ATS (+7.5)