Week 18 NFL Playoff Picture and Clinching Scenarios in the Final Week

BREAKING: How the Daran Hamlin Situation and Suspended Bills-Bengals Game Affects the NFL Playoff Picture

The AFC side of the bracket hinges heavily on how the NFL decides to handle the suspended Bills-Bengals Monday Night Football game. The game was paused indefinitely in the first quarter following the scary Daran Hamlin situation in which he collapsed and needed on-field revival from paramedics.

The Chiefs currently sit at 13-3 while the Bills are still 12-3 because they have yet to finish the Week 17 game against Cincinnati..

Buffalo holds the head-to-head tiebreaker with Kansas City, meaning the Bills will re-assume 1st place should the NFL decide to force the Bills-Bengals to resume their game and the Bills win.

Some are suggesting that the game should be ruled a tie as there are simply not enough days to shoehorn in nearly a full football game right before the final week of the regular season. Just call it a tie and move onto Week 18, they say.

Neither option is great. It’s already Thursday when this is being written. Week 18 games for both the Bills (vs Patriots) and Bengals (vs Ravens) are scheduled for Sunday, and talks on whether and/or when to resume are just now beginning.

Any makeup game would have to take place following Week 18 action – severely handicapping both teams by forcing them to enter Wild Card Weekend on short rest.

Ruling the game a tie is also not ideal as its playoff ramifications would be humongous. As it stands today, both the Bengals and Bills have a fighting shot at overthrowing the Chiefs for the AFC’s 1 seed.

The Bills control their destiny. Win out (Bengals and then Patriots in Week 18) and the road to the Super Bowl goes through Buffalo. Should the Bills not win out (aka tie with the Bengals), the Chiefs become a massive favorite to get the bye, just needing to beat the hapless Raiders in Week 18.

A Chiefs loss in Vegas keeps the door open for Cincinnati, who would then control their own destiny (beating Buffalo and then Baltimore next week, both home games).

This opportunity for Cincy is off the table should this Week 17 contest be ruled a tie. A tie eliminates the Bengals from 1-seed contention.

It may come down to a calculated decision between head coaches Sean McDermott (Bills) and Zac Taylor (Bengals) as they weigh whether remaining alive in the chase for the 1-seed is more important than entering the postseason well rested.

This decision also impacts the Baltimore Ravens who are still alive in the division race for the AFC North. Baltimore needs Cincinnati to lose against Buffalo, giving the Ravens a chance to steal the division with a head-to-head win in Week 18.

Should the NFL rule Bengals-Bills a tie, the Bengals clinch the division.

EDIT: The NFL just announced that the game will NOT be resumed this week. The most likely scenario is that the Week 17 game between Buffalo-Cincinnati will be dropped from the schedule, although this course of action is not yet a certainty.

How do we Get our NFL Playoffs Data?

FiveThirtyEight provides a wealth of NFL playoff odds information and is cited often in this piece. Their NFL Prediction tools are fun to play around with. For each NFL team, I list the % chance that FiveThirtyEight gives of that team reaching the 2022-23 postseason as well as their Super Bowl equity.

Several factors determine a team’s shot of qualifying for postseason football. Current record is the most important but the difficulty of their Week 18 and health of star players weigh heavily, as well.

13 teams couldn’t survive the first 17 weeks of the 2022 NFL regular season and are already eliminated. 11 NFL teams have already punched their tickets – leaving the remaining 8 teams vying for the final 3 playoff spots in Week 18 action.

NFL is Using the Same Expanded Playoffs Format Since 2020

The NFL expanded the playoffs from 12 teams to 14 beginning in the 2020 season. This is the first expansion of the NFL postseason since the field changed from 10 to 12 in 1990.

Division winners will receive the 1-4 seeds in their conference based upon their regular season record. Seeds 5-7 will belong to the Wild Cards, of which there are now 3 in each conference.

Besides keeping more fanbases interested for longer, an added benefit of the 14-team field is that each conference now has just one bye. This will create more meaningful games among top teams late in the regular season. Gone are the days of 13 and 14-win teams resting starters late in the season because they already have the 2-seed clinched.

Here is the 2022-23 NFL playoff bracket if the season ended today for amusement and speculation.

AFC Playoff Picture

Kansas City Chiefs 13-3

538 Playoff%: Clinched AFC West Division for the 7th-straight season. Huge favorite for the AFC’s 1 seed.

538 Super Bowl%: 21%. The highest Super Bowl odds in the AFC.

Week 18 Matchup/Line: KC (-9.5) @ LV (6-10) on Saturday at 4:30pm ET

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Chiefs stand to be the big winners of the situation should the Bills-Bengals game be dropped from the schedule. Kansas City was behind the 8-ball due to an early-season loss to the Bills. Buffalo controlled their destiny for the bye, not KC.

Should the Bills finish with 16 games, the best they can do is 13-3 for a winning percentage of 81.3%. The Chiefs can get to 14-3 with a win over Las Vegas Saturday – which is 82.4%.

Not only would the Bengals be eliminated from 1-seed contention with one less game, but the Chiefs would then control their destiny for home-field all the way to the Super Bowl. It appears that this is the direction in which the NFL is leaning.

Buffalo Bills 12-3

538 Playoff%: Clinched AFC East Division.

538 Super Bowl%: 20%. The 2nd-highest Super Bowl odds in the AFC.

Week 18 Matchup/Line: NE (8-8) @ BUF (-7) on Sunday at 1:00pm ET. Bear in mind the Bills have yet to finish their Week 17 MNF matchup in Cincinnati.

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Bills have the division locked up for the 3rd season in a row and were in control of their destiny for the AFC’s lone first-round bye.

It appears that the suspended Buffalo-Cincinnati game from Week 17 may be dropped from the schedule, meaning Buffalo will not be able to match Kansas City’s win percentage should the Chiefs beat the 6-10 Raiders this week and finish 14-3.

Cincinnati Bengals 11-4

538 Playoff%: Clinched Wild Card berth. Also the favorite to win the AFC North Division.

538 Super Bowl%: 10%. The Bengals shocked everyone by making it to the Super Bowl last year – losing 23-20 to the LA Rams.

Week 18 Matchup/Line: BAL (10-6) @ CIN (-7) on Sunday at 1:00pm ET. Bear in mind the Bengals have yet to finish their Week 17 MNF matchup against Buffalo.

2022 Playoff Scenario: It’s looking more and more like the NFL is simply going to drop the Bengals Week 17 matchup with Buffalo from the schedule.

While this would eliminate the Bengals from 1-seed contention, it would lock up the AFC North for Cincinnati – rendering this weekend’s matchup with the Ravens a meaningless affair.

Jacksonville Jaguars 8-8

538 Playoff%: 79%. The Jaguars have both divisional and Wild Card paths to the postseason and are a large favorite to win the AFC South with a victory over Tennessee in Week 18.

538 Super Bowl%: 0.9%. This number increased by 0.2% since last week.

Week 18 Matchup/Line: TEN (7-9) @ JAX (-6.5) on Saturday at 8:15pm ET. This one is for the AFC South division

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Jaguars were so bad last year under Urban Meyer. Turns out they had the talent all along, just not the leadership.

Jacksonville has won 4-straight to capitalize on a corresponding 6-game Titans skid to assume control of the AFC South division.

It’s simple. If Jacksonville wins on Saturday night, they are the AFC’s 4 seed and get to host a Wild Card Weekend matchup. If they lose, Tennessee wins the South at 8-9.

There is still a path for the Jags to snag the 7 seed at 8-9 if they lose on Saturday, but it’s a longshot. If the Patriots (at Bills), Dolphins (vs Jets) and Steelers (vs Browns) all take Ls in the final week – a massive 4-way tie at 8-9 will ensue. The Jaguars would get in.

Tennessee Titans 7-9

538 Playoff%: 26%. Tennessee’s only playoff path is catching Jacksonville (tying them) in the AFC South standings. The Titans’ playoff equity did not budge from last week. Their path is the exact same – beat the Jags and they’re in on tiebreakers.

538 Super Bowl%: <0.1%.

Week 18 Matchup/Line: TEN (+6.5) @ JAX (8-8) on Saturday at 8:15pm ET

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Titans couldn’t snap their 5-game losing streak in Week 17 – losing a 6th-straight contest to the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football. It didn’t really matter, though.

Regardless of the outcome of the Titans-Cowboys game, the Week 18 Titans-Jags matchup would decide the AFC South division.

Tennessee should consider themselves extremely lucky. They could finish 8-9, losing 6 of their last 7, and still win their division and host a playoff game. Unlike Jacksonville, no Wild Card path exists for Tennessee in the event of a Week 18 loss.

Los Angeles Chargers 10-6

538 Playoff%: Clinched Wild Card berth.

538 Super Bowl%: 1%. A slight uptick from last week. Slight.

Week 18 Matchup/Line: LAC (+2.5) @ DEN (4-12) on Sunday at 4:25pm ET

2022 Playoff Scenario: LA is officially in after their 20-3 Monday Night Football win over Indy in Week 16. With no hopes at a division title, the Chargers have nothing in the way of upward mobility.

Baltimore Ravens 10-6

538 Playoff%: Clinched Wild Card berth. Still alive for the AFC North crown, unless the Bengals-Bills game is dropped from the schedule.

538 Super Bowl%: 2%. Fell a tad after Baltimore’s Week 17 loss to Pittsburgh as winning the division is now less likely (just 14%).

Week 18 Matchup/Line: BAL (+7) @ CIN (11-4) on Sunday at 1:00pm ET

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Ravens are a game behind Cincinnati for the AFC North crown but still control their own destiny thanks to tiebreakers.

Baltimore originally was going to have a chance to win the division by beating Cincy head to head in Week 18, but that may no longer be an option.

It is likely the NFL will handle the Bengals-Bills suspended game situation by simply dropping the game from the schedule or possibly declaring the game a tie. In either event, Cincinnati would clinch the division as their 11-4 record would be safe from Baltimore’s 10-6 mark.

New England Patriots 8-8        

538 Playoff%: 33%. Only Wild Card chances, no division.

538 Super Bowl%: 0.1%. Pretty slim. Belichick is used to his Super Bowl equity being about 1,000 times higher … do the math.

Week 18 Matchup/Line: NE (+7) @ BUF (12-3) on Sunday at 1:00pm ET (pending the league’s decision on how to handle Buffalo’s suspended Week 17 at Cincinnati. Much more on the ramifications of the Daran Hamlin situation at the top of this page)

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Patriots are in with a win at Buffalo in Week 18 – a game in which the Bills are touchdown favorites.

Should New England lose at Buffalo, all hope is not lost. The Patriots could still win a 3-way tiebreaker at 8-9 for the AFC’s 7 seed provided the Titans (at Jags), Dolphins (vs Jets) and Steelers (vs Browns) all lose their Week 18 matchups.

Wouldn’t Bill Belichick love to have that lateral play back?

Miami Dolphins 8-8

538 Playoff%: 42%. Only Wild Card chances, no division.

538 Super Bowl%: <0.1%

Week 18 Matchup/Line: NYJ (7-9) @ MIA (+1) on Sunday at 1:00pm ET.

2022 Playoff Scenario: Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins have lost 5 straight and are in danger of blowing a massive amount of playoff equity after their 8-3 start.

A couple of months ago Miami was thinking division title. Now, they need a Week 18 win over New York and a Patriots loss just to sneak into the AFC’s 7 seed. An 8-3 team is reduced to begging and praying for a playoff spot!

If the Dolphins lose Sunday in what is essentially a coin flip, Miami is eliminated from playoff contention.

Pittsburgh Steelers 8-8

538 Playoff%: 21%. Only Wild Card chances, no division. The Steelers saved their season and septupled their playoff equity with a gritty come-from-behind win in Baltimore on SNF last week.

538 Super Bowl%: <0.1%.

Week 18 Matchup/Line: CLE (7-9) @ PIT (-2.5) on Sunday at 1:00pm ET

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Steelers do not control their own destiny but are still alive after a 2-6 start. Pittsburgh needs a win over Cleveland plus losses from both New England and Miami in order to grab the AFC’s 7 seed.

Also on the line Sunday is Mike Tomlin’s 15-year streak of never having a losing record. He’s finished 8-8 thrice but has never finished below .500 in his head coaching career. He’ll never admit it, but this streak will certainly be in the back of his mind on the sidelines Sunday.

NFC Playoff Picture

Philadelphia Eagles 13-3

538 Playoff%: Clinched Wild Card. Has been #1 seed all season long but could fall to 5th in NFC with the perfect storm in Week 18.

538 Super Bowl%: 17%. Philly’s Super Bowl equity dropped 5% following their 2nd-straight loss against New Orleans in Week 17.

Week 18 Matchup/Line: NYG (9-6-1) @ PHI (-14) on Sunday at 4:25pm ET

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Eagles started 8-0 and then were 13-1, soaring high above the rest of the NFC. We all thought they would easily cruise to the 1 seed and get to rest their starters – maybe for multiple weeks.

That starter rest unfortunately came a little early, and Philly is now in a must-win situation in Week 18 because of it. MVP-candidate quarterback Jalen Hurts has missed the last 2 weeks with a shoulder injury, watching his Eagles lose back-to-back games while the Dallas Cowboys won twice to pull within a game of Philly.

The Eagles absolutely need to win against the Giants Sunday as the Cowboys will win the NFC East division with a win over Washington (who has nothing to play for anymore) and an Eagles loss.

Sunday’s Week 18 matchup against New York could be for 4 spots in the NFC seedings. Philly locks up the 1 seed and, obviously, the division with a win. The Eagles could fall all the way to the 5 seed – yes, a Wild Card berth – with a loss and a Cowboys win.

Going on the road in Wild Card Weekend against 7-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady is not how the Eagles envisioned January playing out. Philly desperately needs a win Sunday – a phrase we never thought we’d utter earlier in this season.

San Francisco 49ers 12-4

538 Playoff%: Clinched NFC West division. Still alive for the NFC’s #1 seed.

538 Super Bowl%: 11%. This is up from 8% last week following San Fran’s 9th-consecutive victory – the longest streak in the NFL since Kansas City won 10 in a row in 2020.

Week 18 Matchup/Line: ARI (4-12) @ SF (-14) on Sunday at 4:25pm ET

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Niners are the hottest team under the shield – winners of 9 straight. The Cowboys stand to gain a ton if Philly falters in Week 18, but perhaps San Francisco will benefit even more.

Should Philly lose and the Niners handle the Cardinals as 14-point favorites – San Francisco becomes the NFC’s 1 seed and would get the 1st-round bye and home field throughout the NFC Playoffs.

Dallas could only win the 1 seed with a win and losses from both Philadelphia and San Francisco (not likely).

Minnesota Vikings 12-4

538 Playoff%: Clinched NFC North Division.

538 Super Bowl%: 3%. This percentage has been in decline over the past month in which Minnesota has won 3 by points twice and lost by double digits twice.

Week 18 Matchup/Line: MIN (-7.5) @ CHI (3-13) on Sunday at 1:00pm ET

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Vikings win ugly and lose uglier but still hold a 12-4 record – good for 4th-best record and the 3rd seed in the NFC.

The Vikings no longer have a shot at a first-round bye after their loss to Green Bay last week. Minnesota has very little to play for in Week 18 in Chicago.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-8

538 Playoff%: Clinched the NFC South with their Week 17 win over Carolina – eliminating both the Panthers and Saints.

538 Super Bowl%: 0.8%. Isn’t this a tad low for 7-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady?

Week 18 Matchup/Line:TB (+4.5) @ ATL (6-10) on Sunday at 1:00pm ET

2022 Playoff Scenario: We just knew Tom was getting in, didn’t we? Tampa eliminated both of their NFC South foes – Carolina and New Orleans – with a win last week and now have nothing to play for in Week 18 at Atlanta.

Dallas Cowboys 12-4

538 Playoff%: Clinched Wild Card berth. Still barely alive for the NFC East crown and the 1st-round bye.

538 Super Bowl%: 12%. The 2nd-highest Super Bowl odds in the NFC behind Philadelphia.

Week 18 Matchup/Line: DAL (-7) @ WAS (7-8-1) on Sunday at 4:25pm ET

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Cowboys are guaranteed at least the NFC’s 5 seed but could jump all the way to the top spot if things break their way in Week 18.

It all starts with beating Washington. All sorts of doors remain open if the Cowboys can take care of business on the road Sunday against a team with nothing to play for.

Winning and improving to 13-4 means that Dallas wins the NFC East division should Philly drop their 3rd straight and lose to New York. It also means that Dallas assumes the 1 seed should San Francisco also lose their final game.

New York Giants 9-6-1

538 Playoff%: Clinched Wild Card berth with Week 17 win over Indianapolis.

538 Super Bowl%: 0.5%. Brian Daboll may win the NFL’s Coach of the Year Award, but a rookie head coach hasn’t won the Super Bowl since San Francisco’s George Seifert in the 1989-90 season.

Week 18 Matchup/Line: NYG (+14) @ PHI (13-3) on Sunday at 4:25pm ET

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Giants can’t move up past the 6 seed which they currently occupy but cannot fall, either. New York has nothing to play for in Week 18 other than momentum and pride.

Seattle Seahawks 8-8

538 Playoff%: 22%. Only Wild Card chances, no division. Despite a convincing Week 17 win over the Jets, Seattle saw their playoff equity fall 5% due to the Packers’ 4th-straight victory.

538 Super Bowl%: <0.1%. Pete Carroll has done it once before (and came so, so close a 2nd time).

Week 18 Matchup/Line: LAR (5-11) @ SEA (-6.5) on Sunday at 4:25pm ET

2022 Playoff Scenario: With a huge win against the Jets last week, the Seahawks overtake the Commanders for the NFC’s 7 seed – eliminating Washington from contention.

No one was rooting against Green Bay in the 4pm game last Sunday harder than Pete Carroll and the Seahawks as the Packers remained in control of their destiny with a big win – their 4th straight.

Green Bay hosts Detroit in Week 18 on Sunday Night Football and gets in with a win. Seattle needs to beat Los Angeles on Sunday and root for a Packers loss in the nightcap to sneak into the 7 seed at 9-8.

Detroit Lions 8-8

538 Playoff%: 17%. Only Wild Card chances, no division. Detroit pounced all over Chicago in Week 17 but saw their playoff equity drop 7% due to the Seahawks beating New York and the Packers winning their 4th straight.

538 Super Bowl%: 0.1%. Lions fans will most definitely take it. For about 3 hours, Detroit controlled the NFC’s 7-seed … in January. That’s awesome. The Lions haven’t reached the postseason since 2016.

Week 18 Matchup/Line: DET (+4.5) @ GB (8-8) on Sunday Night Football at 8:15pm ET

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Lions need to win Sunday Night in Green Bay. This is not likely. Detroit is 3-7 SU in their last 10 trips to Lambeau.

In addition to a tough road win, Detroit needs the Seahawks to lose in the late afternoon slot against the Rams on Sunday. That Seahawks game will take place before Detroit plays Green Bay, meaning the Lions will know whether or not they are alive prior to kickoff Sunday night.

Green Bay Packers 8-8

538 Playoff%: 61%. Only Wild Card chances, no division. The Packers are now large favorites (up from 27% a week ago) to grab the NFC’s 7 seed after rattling off their 4th-straight in Week 17 against the Vikings.

538 Super Bowl%: 0.7%. This number has more than tripled since this time last week.

Week 18 Matchup/Line: DET (8-8) @ GB (-4.5) on Sunday Night Football at 8:15pm ET

2022 Playoff Scenario: The Packers control their own destiny. Considering this team was 4-8 at one point, that’s remarkable!

Detroit cares immensely about the result in Seattle Sunday, but Green Bay does not. The Packers are in with a win (7 seed) and out with a loss. It’s that simple.