Week 15 NFL Playoff Scenarios

The Ravens, Chiefs, and Saints have already clinched playoff spots. 17 other teams are mathematically in contention.

NFL Predictions at FiveThirtyEight give the Baltimore Ravens a 35% chance of winning Super Bowl 54 in February – the best odds in the league. San Francisco is 2nd at 16%.

The AFC West and NFC South races are over. The other 6 division titles and 4 Wild Card spots are still up for grabs.

Being a math guy, playoff possibilities are one of my favorite topics. With 48 games remaining in the regular season, there are over 281 trillion ways these final 3 weeks could play out. Here are just a few of those scenarios.

NFC Division Leaders

The 11-2 Niners, 10-3 Packers, 10-3 Saints, and 6-7 Cowboys lead their respective divisions. Here is a look at the remaining schedules of these 4 teams.

NFC West Title Scenarios

The frontrunner to take the NFC West this year is San Francisco. SF holds a 3-game lead over the Rams but just a 1-game lead over Seattle. Seattle won the first H2H meeting.

49’ers

Excluding ties, any one of these scenarios would need to happen for the Niners to clinch the West:

• The Niners win out. This would clinch the West and a first-round bye.
• SF beats ATL in Week 15 and then loses out. Seattle would need to lose in both Weeks 15 (@CAR) and 16 (vs ARI).
• SF beats LAR in Week 16 but loses their other 2 games. Seattle would need to lose in Weeks 15 and 16, again.
• SF beats either ATL or LAR and then beats Seattle in Week 17.
• SF loses in Weeks 15 and 16, then beats Seattle in Week 17.
  • Seattle wins in Weeks 15 and 16 would create a 12-4 tie with 1 H2H win each. The next tiebreaker is division record – each would be 4-2. The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents – each would be 9-3. This brings us to conference record – which would also be 9-3 for each team. The 5th tiebreaker is strength of victory – the combined winning percentage of opponents beaten. This one is super close and will depend on how the final 3 weeks play out across the league, but SF is currently in a better position to win this tiebreaker. The Niners hold an 85% chance of winning the West in this situation.

San Francisco controls their own destiny, but if the Niners lose out, the Seahawks win the West no matter what else happens.

Seahawks

Excluding ties, any one of these scenarios would need to happen for the Seahawks to clinch the West:

• Seattle wins out. This would also clinch a first-round bye.
• Seattle wins either Week 15 or 16, then beats SF in Week 17. This scenario would require SF to lose either Week 15 or 16.
• Seattle loses in both Weeks 15 and 16, then beats SF in Week 17. SF would have to lose out in this scenario for SEA to win the West.
• Seattle wins in both Weeks 15 and 16, then loses to SF in Week 17. See above the chaos this would create.

Both SEA and SF control their own destinies for the division title and a first-round bye. This division battle is likely to come down to Week 17 at CenturyLink and maybe some tiebreakers.

NFC North Title Scenarios

Chicago

Excluding ties, there is only 1 scenario that sees the Bears winning the NFC North. Each of the following would need to happen:

• Chicago wins out
• Green Bay loses out
• Minnesota loses Weeks 15 and 17 but beats GB in Week 16

Packers

The Packers (10-3) hold a 1-game lead over Minnesota (9-4). For GB to win the NFC North, one of the following would need to occur (excluding scenarios involving ties):

• Green Bay wins at least 2 of their remaining 3 games
• Green Bay beats Minnesota in Week 16
• Green Bay beats either CHI or DET but loses other 2 games. Minnesota would need to lose in both Weeks 15 and 17 for GB to win the North in this scenario.

NFC East Title Scenarios

The NFC East is a mess. DAL and PHI lead the division at 6-7 … not a typo. Both WAS (3-10) and NYG (2-11) are eliminated from playoff contention, although both were still alive at the beginning of Week 14.

Neither Dallas nor Philly can win a Wild Card berth. It is mathematically impossible. One of these teams will be the NFC East division winner and the other will watch Wild Card weekend from home.

DAL and PHI play each other for the 2nd time in Week 16. Dallas won the first H2H meeting.

Cowboys

Excluding ties, any one of these scenarios would need to happen for the Cowboys to clinch the East:

• Dallas wins out.
• Dallas beats LAR in Week 15 and WAS in Week 17 but loses to PHI in Week 16. PHI would have to lose to either WAS in Week 15 or NYG in Week 17 for Dallas to win the East in this scenario.
• Dallas beats either LAR or WAS but loses the other 2 games. Philly would need to lose to both WAS and NYG for Dallas to win the East.

Dallas controls their destiny. Win out, and the ‘Boys win the Super Bowl.

Eagles

Excluding ties, any one of these scenarios would need to happen for the Eagles to clinch the East:

• Philly wins out.
• PHI beats WAS in Week 15 and NYG in Week 17 but loses to DAL in Week 16. Dallas would need to lose in both Weeks 15 and 17 for PHI to win the East in this scenario.

Philly controls their own destiny, too. It will be more difficult for the Eagles to win the division because they lost the first H2H matchup with Dallas.

NFC in the Hunt

There are many roads to the NFL playoffs. The Rams are eliminated from West division contention but have a decent shot at nabbing a Wild Card spot. Seattle, Minnesota, and Chicago are all more likely to be a Wild Card team than a division winner.

Here are the playoff paths for a few of the NFC teams “in the hunt” for a Wild Card.

Seahawks

At 10-3, Seattle has the best record of any NFC non-division leader and is the frontrunner for the 1st Wild Card.

Excluding ties, any one of these scenarios would need to happen for the Seahawks to clinch a WC berth:

• Seattle wins at least 2 of their remaining games. This clinches it without any help.
• Seattle wins just 1 of their remaining games. Still extremely likely for Seattle to get in. MIN and LAR would need to combine to lose just 1 of their remaining games to clinch it for Seattle.
• Seattle loses out. Losing out still gives Seattle a 57% chance of making the postseason. The Seahawks would be 10-6 and things would get crazy. The Vikings, Rams, and Bears all have a chance of catching the Seahawks if Seattle loses out. Here’s how that could shake out:
  • Scenario A
    • The Rams win at least 2 of 3. Minnesota loses at least 2 of their remaining games. Chicago loses at least 1 of their remaining games. Either GB or MIN would win the North. MIN, GB, LAR, and SEA could all be tied at 10-6. LAR and SEA would be given the berths based on tiebreakers.
  • Scenario B
    • Chicago wins out to finish 10-6. The Rams lose at least 2 of their remaining games. Minnesota loses out. The Packers would win the North in this scenario. Seattle and Chicago would be the WC teams. The Bears would be the #1, Seattle #2 based on conference record.

Vikings

At 9-4, Minnesota is the 2nd-best NFC non-division winner. Seattle holds a 98% chance of playing postseason football. Minnesota holds a 71% chance.

Excluding ties, any one of these scenarios would need to happen for the Vikings to clinch a WC berth:

• Minnesota wins out. This would put MIN in a good spot to win the North, but would guarantee at least a WC berth.
• Minnesota wins 2 of their remaining 3 games. This would put MIN at 11-5. The Rams would need to lose at least one game for MIN to be safe in this scenario.
• Minnesota loses 2 of their remaining 3 games. This would put MIN at 10-6 and in a precarious situation. Here are some scenarios in which a 10-6 Vikings team could make the NFC playoffs:
  • Scenario A
    • Seattle and Green Bay each win at least 1 of their remaining games. Chicago loses at least one of their remaining games. The Rams lose at least 2 of their remaining games to finish 9-7. In this scenario, GB wins the North, Seattle gets WC #1 and MIN gets WC #2.
  • Scenario B
    • Minnesota beats GB in Week 16 but loses in Weeks 15 and 17. Green Bay loses out. Chicago loses at least 1 of their remaining games. Minnesota would win the North in this scenario.
  • Minnesota loses out. At 9-7, the Vikings would have a 2% chance of making the playoffs. The Rams would also have to lose out. Chicago would have to lose at least 2 of their remaining games. Seattle would get the 1st WC, Minnesota the 2nd.

Rams

At 8-5, the Rams need a lot of help if they are to earn an NFC Wild Card bid. Excluding ties, any one of these scenarios would need to happen for the Rams to clinch a WC berth:

• Rams win out. The Vikings would need to lose one at least 1 of their remaining games or the Seahawks would need to lose at least 2 of their remaining games.
• Rams lose 1 of their remaining games. This would put LAR at 10-6. There are few scenarios in which a 10-6 Rams team makes the playoffs. As always, these exclude ties:
  • Scenario A
    • Seattle wins at least 1 of their remaining games and takes the top WC spot. Minnesota loses at least 2 of their remaining games.
  • Scenario B
    • Minnesota wins at least 2 of their remaining games and takes the top WC spot. Seattle loses out.

Bears

The 7-6 Bears have a crowded path into the postseason. Minnesota, LAR, and Seattle are all ahead of Chicago. Chicago needs to pass 2 of these teams in the standings.

Rather than trudge through each and every possible scenario that would see the Bears get in (there are tons), I will discuss tiebreaker situations. If the Bears are going to qualify for the postseason, it is going to be on a tiebreaker.

Bears-Vikings – The only way the Bears and Vikings could end tied in the standings is if the Bears win out to finish 10-6. Chicago would win the tiebreaker because they’d have beaten MIN twice.

Bears-Rams – If the Bears and Rams finish tied, the Rams would win due to their victory over Chicago earlier this season.

Bears-Seahawks – If the Seahawks lose out and the Bears win out, the two will be tied at 10-6. Chicago and Seattle did not play each other this year. The Bears would win the tiebreaker due to a better record in conference play.

Bears-Seahawks-Vikings-Rams – The Bears would advance to the playoffs in the case of a 4-team tie or any combination of a 3-team tie with these teams thanks to their impressive conference record.

AFC Division Leaders

The 11-2 Ravens, 10-3 Patriots, 9-4 Chiefs, and 8-5 Texans lead their respective divisions. Here is a look at the remaining schedules of these 4 teams.

AFC South Title Scenarios

Houston and Tennessee are tied atop the South at 8-5. The Texans have the tiebreaker – better divisional record.

This division race comes down to Weeks 15 and 17. Houston and Tennessee play twice in three weeks. If either side sweeps the 2-game set, it’s over. If they split, it comes down to Week 16. The Texans play the Bucs while the Titans play the Saints.

AFC North Title Scenarios

Many consider the Ravens to be the class of the NFL. Baltimore holds a 3-game lead over the Steelers who are in the midst of a furious second-half charge.

Ravens

The division scenario is simple for Baltimore. Their magic number over Pittsburgh is 1, meaning the Ravens must lose out and the Steelers must win out if PIT is to win the North.

The Ravens hold greater than a 99% chance of winning the division. They hold a 97% chance of earning a first-round bye. For Baltimore to nab a bye, the following could occur:

• The Ravens win at least 2 of their remaining 3 games. No help needed.
• The Ravens win at least 1 of their remaining 3 games. Either KC or NE would have to lose 1 game for the Ravens to earn a bye in this scenario.
• The Ravens lose out. At 11-5, earning a bye would be much more difficult. The chances drop to just 15%. One of these scenarios would have to occur (excluding ties):
  • Scenario A
    • Pittsburgh loses in either Week 15 or 16.
    • The Bills lose at least 1 of their remaining 3 games.
    • The Chiefs lose at least 2 of their remaining 3 games. KC won against BAL and thus holds the H2H tiebreaker. The Ravens would have to finish ahead of KC in the standings.
    • The Titans lose at least 1 of their remaining 3 games.
  • Scenario B
    • Pittsburgh loses in either Week 15 or 16.
    • New England loses at least 2 of their remaining 3 games. Baltimore beat New England H2H and thus holds the tiebreaker.
    • Buffalo loses at least 1 of their remaining 3 games.
    • The Titans lose at least 1 of their remaining 3 games.

AFC East Title Scenarios

The 10-3 Patriots – winners of 10-straight AFC East titles – hold a slim 1-game lead over the 9-4 Buffalo Bills. New England has a 94% chance of winning the East, but a Bills comeback is not outside the realm of possibility.

New England won the first meeting against Buffalo. The Patriots have a better divisional record.

Patriots

Excluding ties, any one of these scenarios would need to happen for the Patriots to clinch an 11th-straight division title:

• New England beats Buffalo in Week 16.
• New England wins at least 2 of their remaining games.
• New England loses to both Buffalo and either Cincinnati or Miami. The Patriots could still win the division as long as Buffalo loses at least 1 of their remaining games.
• The Patriots lose out. Buffalo would have to lose against Pittsburgh and the Jets for New England to win the East in this scenario.

AFC in the Hunt

There are many roads to the NFL playoffs. Buffalo and Pittsburgh are both more likely to be a Wild Card team than a division winner.

Here are the playoff paths for a few of the AFC teams “in the hunt” for a Wild Card.

Bills

Buffalo has a 95% chance of playing postseason football. At 9-4, the Bills have the best record of any non-division leading AFC team. Excluding ties, any one of these scenarios would need to happen for the Bills to clinch a WC berth:

• Buffalo wins at least one of their remaining games.
• Buffalo loses out. This would only drop the Bills’ playoff chances to 54% and create a ton of tiebreaker opportunities. The simplest way to describe the different scenarios would be to explore with whom Buffalo would win a WC tiebreaker.

Bills-Titans – If the Bills and Titans end up tied for a WC spot, the Bills would win the tiebreaker based on their H2H win.

Bills-Texans – Buffalo did not play Houston this year. The tiebreaker would go to conference record. Losing out would put the Bills at 6-6 in AFC play. The Texans currently have 7 conference wins. The Texans would get the nod in this scenario.

Bills-Steelers – These two meet in Week 15. The winner would obviously win any subsequent tiebreakers.

Bills-Browns – The Browns defeated Buffalo in their meeting earlier this year. Cleveland would win a tiebreaker.

Bills-Raiders – If the Raiders win out to finish 9-7, their conference record will be 7-5. This is better than the Bills’ would-be conference record of 6-6. Raiders win the tiebreaker.

Bills-Titans-Raiders – The Bills would not receive the WC in this 3-team tie. It would be either TEN or OAK and would come down to common opponents or strength of victory.

Bills-Titans-Browns – Buffalo beat Tennessee. Tennessee beat Cleveland. Cleveland beat Buffalo. This tiebreaker would be determined by conference record. Buffalo could not win at 6-6.

Bills-Texans-Raiders – The Texans would win this 3-team tiebreaker.

Bills-Texans-Browns – The Browns would win this 3-team tiebreaker.

Bills-Browns-Raiders – The Browns would win this 3-team tiebreaker.

Bills-Titans-Browns-Raiders – The Browns would win this 4-team tiebreaker.

Bills-Texans-Browns-Raiders – Either the Texans or Browns would win this 4-team tiebreaker, but not the Bills.

I will not discuss any 3 or 4-team ties involving the Bills and Steelers as we cannot speak in absolutes until after Week 15 when Buffalo plays Pittsburgh.

Steelers

At 8-5, Pittsburgh has the 2nd-best record of any non-division leading AFC team. The Steelers have a 62% chance of making the playoffs. Excluding ties, any one of these scenarios would need to happen for the Steelers to earn a WC bid in the AFC:

• Pittsburgh wins at least 2 of their remaining 3 games.
• Pittsburgh wins only 1 of their remaining 3 games. Either Houston or Tennessee would have to lose out for the Steelers to make the playoffs in this scenario.
• Pittsburgh loses out. The Steelers would still have a 4% chance of making the postseason if they lose out and finish 8-8. Houston, Tennessee, Cleveland, Indy, and Oakland would all need to lose a bunch of games for the Steelers to make it in at 8-8.

Browns/Raiders/Colts

Each of these 6-7 teams are still alive. They need to win out and get a lot of help to have a chance. There is a 7% chance that one of these teams reaches the playoffs.

This is the best time of year to be an NFL fan. I cannot wait for the action to get going! See you on top!