Week 14 Odds, Lines, and Forecast: Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens Pick ATS

“Omega Point” has multiple definitions, but for some reason, I prefer to willfully misunderstand the term as a purely psychological turning point, or a “point of seeing” in Robert Fripp’s pet lingo.

To understand how an Omega Point (or a point-of-seeing) applies to sports betting in 2021, consider that the sports media is starting to lie its ass off as much as any other media field.

To see through media gaslighting on any topic, you need “contradictory confidence.” Contradictory confidence can best be explained through the analogy of picking berries, which can be a scary prospect when you aren’t confident in what the berries are. If, however, you are picking from a mulberry tree in your back yard, and someone stops you to claim that they’re full of poison, you would brush aside your neighbor as being stone-cold wrong. If the neighbor continues on to say, “But those aren’t mulberries! They’re deadly Chinese Poison Peppers!” then you might eat a handful and laugh at the person. That’s because you have contradictory confidence that the berries are safe.

The 8-4 Dallas Cowboys have been surrounded by so much hype that it is starting to give this NFL blogger crocks, cauldrons, and kettles full of contradictory confidence. Things are being said in reaction to the Silver Star’s recent modicum of success that couldn’t be true of any team in the league, or any team in any league.

One morning-TV pundit that rated the Cowboys as superior to the Cardinals, Buccaneers, and Packers of December following Big D’s recent 27-17 win over New Orleans on Thursday Night Football. Michael Strahan proclaimed on the same night that Dallas is “stacked at every position,” a ridiculous remark that gamblers may take seriously at their own peril. Not even the NFC and AFC Pro Bowl teams have fully stacked lineups.

The Cowboys do deserve praise for building a lead in the NFC East race. The development of the Silver Star’s defense into a potential top-10 unit is the most exciting narrative of all. But the Cowboys’ current 13-to-1 Super Bowl winner’s circle odds would be priced less steeply in Las Vegas were it not for a large sum of “good luck” wagers, and bets placed by another batch of fans who’re unwise enough to take MSM predictions for what they are.

Similar to Man City’s inflated (-650) moneyline to beat Wolverhampton in an English Premier League match this Saturday, the realization that much of a sports league’s betting, handicapping, and pundit communities are living in fantasy-land is nothing personal against an outstanding club.

For the record, nobody at WagerBop is an anti-Dallas Cowboys fan. I like Jerry, I like Dak, and I like Zeke, and enjoy cheering for the Cowboys on fair occasions to do so. If someone said my alma mater Festus Tigers had the 55 best high-school football players in Missouri, I’d laugh, and contradict them with confidence.

The hype isn’t a bummer but a blessing for NFL gamblers. Hype has a way of soaking into all pigskin analysis so that even the wisest of bookmakers and high-rollers can find themselves influenced to favor familiar, big-money brands. That makes football’s betting markets vulnerable to forecasting that’s solid and sober.

Knowing that “NFL power centers” like Los Angeles, Boston, and (of course) the Dallas Metroplex can lead to mistaken spreads and moneylines is still only good for negative goal seeking, i.e. figuring out which bets not to take. To find the best wagers in Week 14, let’s look past simple ML picks on underdogs, and examine which factors on Sunday could be overrated by a pundit class full of excrement.

Week 14 Lines, Point Spreads, and Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings (Thursday Night Football)

It’s a lousy year to be a .500 team in the NFC, and Minnesota (-3) can only hope to get there. Last week’s shocking loss to the formerly winless Detroit Lions shouldn’t knock the 5-7 Norsemen out of Wild Card contention, but there’s not a whole lot of headroom with Green Bay already most of the way to sewing-up the NFC North and 2, perhaps 3 NFC West clubs bound for post-season play.

The Pittsburgh Steelers can feel swell about a hair-raising Week 13 win over Baltimore headed into this Thursday’s clash in the Twin Cities. Believe it or not, a TNF contest plays to Big Ben’s strengths despite any late-season wear and tear, given the QB’s experience dealing with short preparation times.

Pittsburgh, for all its flaws, is a team that could show up and play “in the parking lot” with no notice and still play a solid brand of football, especially against finesse teams like the Vikings. Meanwhile, the Ravens felt the wrath of WRs Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool in a 20-19 win for Pittsburgh last Sunday.

The Black & Gold defense is still giving up big 4th-quarter drives. If the Baltimore Ravens had been prepared to let an injured lineup play an OT period, or if Lamar Jackson’s attempted 2-point conversion pass was inches more accurate, there would be a different conversation around the Steelers this week. Detroit is as big, fast, and fundamentally sound as any 1-win team in a decade, and the hosts’ own veteran QB Kirk Cousins knows how to bounce back with a playoff bid still glimmering.

Recommended bet: Vikings (-3)

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, December 12)

Once again, Kansas City has ascended into Super Bowl contenders’ status. It wasn’t a fun Sunday night for passers and receivers in Week 13 at Arrowhead Stadium, but the Kansas City Chiefs built on a solid defensive performance in Week 11 to conquer the rival Denver Broncos with a yawn on SNF. Pat Mahomes appeared shaky from the pocket following a bye week, but speculators can always expect positive reversion-to-form from a Kansas City offense with Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce at the team’s core.

Bushels of TDs won’t necessarily come overnight, however, and Arrowhead’s conditions aren’t ideal for rebuilding a 30+ point attack in home games against desperate opposition. Las Vegas knows all about the bite of dangerous .500 visitors, having lost a bitter 17-15 setback to Washington Football Team despite comparable stats and no turnovers.

Then what can explain the Chiefs’ whopping (-8.5) ATS vs the Raiders? Are sportsbooks only looking at KC’s unexpected blow-out win over Las Vegas several weeks ago? NFL handicappers are most likely looking at the Silver & Black season in the aggregate, without taking into account the multiple scandals and tragedies of early fall ’21. Given the sample of Las Vegas kickoffs and outcomes since the Raiders hit their low point of a 20-9 loss to Chicago, the picture of a more competitive team emerges. Las Vegas has beaten the Dallas Cowboys while sweeping the NFC East and rival Denver in recent action. The resilient Raiders aren’t an 8.5-point road underdog in any NFL stadium with the possible exception of the Cardinals.

Recommended bet: Raiders (+8.5)

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (Sunday, December 12)

Did you blink? Because it’s time for another Baltimore-Cleveland matchup.

Quirks of age-old National Football League schedules included home-and-home “series” between regional rivals, a convention that the NFL may or may not have planned to reintroduce prior to the COVID era. Players will thank the commissioner’s office for reduced travel strain, but bookmakers haven’t made much use out of an opportunity to handicap a near-instant NFL rematch between rivals.

John Harbaugh’s call to go for a 2-point conversion winner at the end of Baltimore’s ill-fated comeback bid in Pittsburgh is lauded as brave, but there was a dose of common sense involved too. Why subject the most injured team in the AFC to an OT period? Needless to say, the Ravens (+118) wouldn’t be a FG underdog in Cleveland if the conversion attempt had been successful. Dawg rushers aren’t finding a lot of daylight on the field even as the hosts’ offensive backfield begins to get healthy. Lamar Jackson’s offense could potentially out-rush the Browns by 100 yards.

Recommended bet: Ravens (+118)

Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, December 12)

The Buccaneers went about curing a systemic weakness in Week 12 and Week 13. For a sparkling Lombardi Trophy and other accolades given to Tom Brady‘s team in the last 15 months, the Bucs still carried a losing road record into the last kickoff of November in Indianapolis. That now seems like a distant memory.

The NFL’s leading active Hall-of-Fame candidate was picked off an unthinkable 4 times during a pair of losses at New Orleans and Washington. Undaunted, Brady found Rob Gronkowski for 123 yards, RB Leonard Fournette lived large in the Red Zone, and Tampa defeated the host Colts 38-31 at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Last weekend, the Tampa defense matched the offense by improving on the road. Atlanta’s final stats from Tampa Bay’s 30-17 win appear healthy, but the Dirty Birds scored nary a point in the final 2 quarters.

Tampa’s form at home? There’s no question about that. The only question is whether a struggling Buffalo Bills (+3) run game can carve-out holes against Tampa Bay’s stingy front-7. Buffalo’s recent lack of consistency alone might be enough to make the Bucs high-percentage ATS thanks to the hosts only giving 3 points.

The foul match-up of an offensive line that can’t give QB Josh Allen a chance against a leather-tough unit at home gives NFL gamblers a separate, glowing angle to justify picks on Tampa.

Recommended bet: Buccaneers (-3)

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (Sunday Night Football)

A fat line ATS and prohibitive odds-to-win will have FanDuel’s gamblers looking to the Over/Under for Green Bay vs Chicago on Sunday night. The sportsbook’s O/U number “(43.5)” is low enough to tempt recreational “Over” bettors to take the high-side of the market and cheer for points at Lambeau Field. Will the “fun” crowd be correct?

For a rivalry game as big as Packers vs Bears, Green Bay’s (-12.5) spread is pretty gigantic. Back when the NFL’s afternoon TV coverage was purely regional, Chicago and Green Bay fans who didn’t have their home teams to cheer for at 12 PM wanted only the rival Packers or Bears respectively to play on television. Of course, that was not so they could root for fellow NFC North representatives, but so they could root very hard for the opposing side.

Week 14’s spread illustrates that Chicago is primed to fall apart, having been eliminated from playoff contention with a lame-duck HC on board in Matt Nagy. Aaron Rodgers is having too terrific of a season to sit back and let his defense win the night against a hated opponent. If the Packers win by 3+ TDs, the Bears might have an opportunity to score consolation points and buffer the final score.

Cold and windy conditions will affect the O/U total for Sunday night. But if it’s windy, and the Bears rely on an explosive ground game while Rodgers throws 1st-half incompletions, then the heavily-favored Pack could be roaring to assert superiority later on. Situationally speaking, a dramatic 4th quarter could make-up for a dull halftime score in the event Green Bay’s offense is initially slowed by its forever rival.

Recommended bet: Over (43.5)

L.A. Rams at Arizona Cardinals (Monday Night Football)

It’s a mistake to focus on Arizona’s blow-out win at L.A. when handicapping Monday’s battle at the Big Toaster. Arizona’s (-2.5) odds to win Monday Night Football stem from the Cardinals’ persevering November, in which the Big Red overcame losing QB Kyler Murray, WR DeAndre Hopkins, and star LB J.J. Watt, emerging with a top ranked 10-2 record. Matt Stafford’s problems aren’t the headline out of SoCal this week, as Stafford passed for around 300 yards to go with 3 TDs in the Rams’ pounding of the Jaguars.

Contrary to popular belief, there can be too much of a good thing. Taking a cold shower on Arizona’s domination-to-date of the NFC West is a nice angle, but to give the NFL’s #1 team “home-field advantage” points and nothing else ATS is to overlook the season in total. Murray is good enough to out-play Stafford even if the latter QB plays well. If the Cardinals had been healthy enough to play to their water-line throughout the past 4-5 games, there’s no way that a single FG would be the difference in this week’s MNF spread.

Recommended bet: Cardinals (-2.5)