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Week 14 NFL Playoff Picture and Scenarios

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It’s Week 14. 2 teams are definitely in the NFL playoffs – 4 are definitely out. 26 others are vying for the remaining 12 spots in that bracket.

Sounds like a lot of math, huh? Here’s more numbers for ya. With 2 Monday night games and a rare Tuesday game remaining in Week 13 plus 16 games each in Weeks 14-17, there are 67 games of football left in the 2020 NFL regular season.

Although ties are a thing, each of those 67 games essentially has 2 outcomes – win or loss. Raise 2 to the 67th power and we get over 147 quintillion possible endings to this NFL season!

What did we learn in Week 13?

We learned not to sleep on the Patriots.

 

We were reminded not to bet against teams in their first game after firing their coach – especially when that team is talented.

 

Although the Chiefs, Saints, Steelers, and Packers are uber-close to locking up their divisions – all 6 divisions are currently up for grabs … even the NFC East … someone will have to win.

NFC Playoff Scenarios

The Saints have clinched a playoff berth but not the division. Green Bay and Los Angeles are both extremely close to clinching berths, as well. No team has locked up a bye in either conference.

With 4 weeks left to play and 26 teams in the hunt, there might as well be infinite possibilities for how the rest of this season could shake out.

We’d be here all day if I broke down every single playoff scenario. Instead, I handpicked 4 teams – 2 from each conference – whose road to the playoff is ill-light and full of hairpin turns, but not impassable.

Minnesota Vikings Playoff Scenarios

Minnesota Vikings Remaining Schedule – HOME GAMES in PURPLE

At 6-6, Minnesota sits alone in 2nd place in the NFC North. Once 1-5, Minnesota has won 5 of their last 6 and definitely has momentum on their side.

FiveThirtyEight gives Minnesota a 38% chance of qualifying for the postseason. The Vikings’ remaining schedule contains some winnable games.

Minnesota controls their own destiny! This means if Minnesota wins out, they are in! Even at 9-7, the odds look very good for the Vikings to snag one of the 3 Wild Card spots in the NFC.

Here is what needs to occur for the Vikings to secure a top-7 finish in their conference:

  • The Vikings win out and finish 10-6
    • A 10-6 record guarantees the Vikings a playoff spot no matter what happens in the league around them. Winning out will be much easier said than done for Minnesota who holds a 3.4% chance of winning out.

OR

  • The Vikings lose to either Chicago, New Orleans, or Detroit and finish 9-7 AND Tampa Bay loses at least 1 more game
    • This scenario assumes Minnesota beats Tampa in their Week 14 meeting. One more loss by Tampa to either Atlanta or Detroit would seal the deal – sending the Vikings to the postseason. This is not the only scenario which sees a 9-7 Vikings club into the playoffs, but it is the most straightforward.

OR

  • The Vikings lose to Tampa Bay in Week 14 and finish 9-7 AND either Washington or the Giants lose 1 of their remaining games AND the Cardinals lose at least 1 of their remaining games AND the 49’ers lose at least 1 of their remaining games
    • As you can see, the scenario is not as simple if the Vikings lose to the Bucs in Week 14. It is still very likely for Minnesota to get in, however.

Arizona Cardinals Playoff Scenarios

Arizona Cardinals Remaining Schedule – HOME GAMES in RED

At 6-6, the Cardinals are behind both Seattle and Los Angeles in the NFC West. Winning the division is very unlikely for Arizona. FiveThirtyEight gives the Cards just a 1% chance.

A Wild Card berth is not out of the question, however. The odds are about 35%. Here’s what needs to happen for Arizona to sneak in.

  • The Cardinals win out
    • This would put Arizona at 10-6. It is extremely unlikely Arizona will win out as they figure to underdogs in each of their 4 remaining games. They have just a 1.3% chance of winning their last 4.

OR

  • The Cardinals lose 1 game, finishing 9-7 AND the Rams lose 3 of their last 4 games AND the Bears lose at least 1 of their remaining games

OR

  • The Cardinals lose 1 game, finishing 9-7 AND the Bears lose at least 1 of their remaining games AND the Vikings lose at least 1 of their remaining games

AFC Playoff Scenarios

The Chiefs have clinched a playoff spot but not the AFC West. Pittsburgh is 1 win away from clinching.

The lone first-round bye in the AFC will almost certainly go to either the Chiefs or Steelers – who hold a combined 99% chance of grabbing the bye.

Miami Dolphins Playoff Scenarios

Miami Dolphins Remaining Schedule – HOME GAMES in ORANGE

For the first time in what seems like forever, the Patriots are not controlling the AFC East. Buffalo leads the division with a record of 8-3. Miami is right behind the Bills at 8-4.

The Dolphins began the season 1-3 and made a change at quarterback during their Week 7 bye. Brian Flores benched 38-year-old journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick in favor of the dynamic rookie Tua Tagovailoa.

 

The move has paid dividends as Miami now sits in second place in the division with an 8-4 record and holds a 43% chance of making the playoffs. Miami can even come back to win the division – there is a 14% chance of this happening.

Here is what needs to happen down the stretch for Miami to play postseason football:

  • The Dolphins win at least 3 of their last 4
    • 11 wins is enough for Miami to clinch a berth, no matter what else happens. This is much easier said than done, though. Recheck that remaining schedule … there are no easy ones on there. I’m sure many have already penciled in a loss for Miami in Week 14 against the Chiefs and it doesn’t get much easier after that.

OR

  • The Dolphins win 2 of their last 4, finishing 10-6 AND the Raiders lose at least 2 of their last 4 AND the Colts-Titans-Browns combine for 4 losses
    • At 10-6, Miami would be battling the Ravens, Colts/Titans, Browns, and Raiders for 3 Wild Card spots. 

Las Vegas Raiders Playoff Scenarios

Las Vegas Raiders Remaining Schedule – HOME GAMES in SILVER

At 7-5, the Raiders hold a 46% chance of reaching the postseason. Although mathematically possible, Las Vegas is not expecting to vie for a division title. I think Kansas City has that locked up. Here is what needs to shake out to see the Raiders in Wild Card Weekend:

  • The Raiders win out
    • It will take 4 more victories for Vegas to clinch without help.

OR

  • The Raiders win 3 of their remaining games AND Baltimore-Tennessee-Cleveland combine for 3 losses

OR

  • The Raiders win 2 of their remaining games AND they need a lot of help

4 weeks out, the possibilities are too numerous to list. Although this NFL season has been strange, this playoff race figures to be a classic!

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