WagerBop’s EPL Picks: This Weekend’s Matchups, FanDuel Odds, Goal-Total Lines, and Forecast

There’s a strange phenomenon going on in European soccer’s game-odds betting. The sluggish performances of iconic teams like Bayern Munich and Manchester City, in addition to the injury woes of international giants like Paris Saint-Germain and Tottenham, are casting doubt on the betting markets of such time-honored favorites. But the money-line odds on most of the aforementioned teams (and even Chelsea Football Club) continue to shrink.

That’s because there’s even more concern over the form of teams paired against the aristocrats on upcoming dates. For instance, sportsbook users might be “perfectly willing to go to town,” as F. Scott Fitzgerald once put it, on Magpies of Newcastle United vs Man City this weekend…if Magpies had shown anything to get excited about in recent matches.

Pep Guardiola’s remark that “Erling Haaland needs teamwork to score goals” would not seem untoward in any other circumstance, except that Haaland is, in fact, performing like a solo act at points this season. If the Norwegian upstart were actually as one-dimensional as many of soccer’s strikers can be, Haaland would certainly be struggling more often in a cycle of inconsistent attacking for Sky Blues as a unit overall. Haaland is favored to win the Premier League scoring race, but considering Man City’s laborious effort to tally as many goals these days, his (-150) prop odds pick to bury at least one shot this Saturday can be traced to the diminished form of a team that soared up the UK rankings in late 2022.

Saturday, March 4: Manchester City vs Newcastle United

Saturday’s early tilt is no ordinary meeting between Premier League aristocrats and minnows. Newcastle United’s goal differential in 2022-23 is more comparable to Manchester City’s than those of Brighton, Leicester City, and other clubs that Newcastle traditionally finds itself compared to. The 5th-place visitors have taken league points this season from Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Man United, and in the EFL Cup won silver medals.

Yet conversely, Man City’s (-230) odds to win this weekend are in the same hemisphere with typically-short lines on Sky Blues against mid-table teams, and Magpies (+600) wagering odds scarcely seem to reflect Newcastle’s wonderful form in 2022-23.

It may be hard to find a downer angle on Newcastle United, if in fact you are looking for one. Eddie Howe’s club is getting rave editorial reviews and seems to remain in good spirits, even after getting outmaneuvered by MUFC in Sunday’s tournament loss. But quietly, the previous Matchweeks have shown what limitations Howe is still facing.

Sadly, momentum is not on the underdog’s side headed into this weekend. Newcastle has not won a league match in over a month’s time, and Nick Pope’s red-card infraction cannot be blamed for an 0-2 loss to Liverpool that put Newcastle substantially behind 4th-place Tottenham, as Reds had already scored twice by then.

WagerBop’s Pick: Handicap Draw (Man City (-1)) (+250)

Saturday, March 4: Chelsea F.C. vs Leeds United

The early-season managerial change at Chelsea is being second-guessed with a vengeance. Then again, the switch from Thomas Tuchel to Graham Potter in front of Blues’ bench was being second-guessed the day that it was made. Now that Chelsea has fallen from top-half position, that chorus of whistles and jeers threatens to grow into a symphony.

Stamford Bridge is glum, and Potter’s saying “(The Blues) need a good feeling, a good game, and 3 points,” which is often the sound of a manager who is waiting for the anvil to drop. But if you were simply reading the EPL lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, maybe you would wonder what all the fuss was about. Blues are offered as a solid (-160) money-line favorite this Saturday to conquer Leeds United, a 4-to-1 underdog for the fixture.

The betting public possibly would turn to any competent side looking to beat Chelsea, but it remains that Leeds United is not a great candidate for the chore at present. Peacocks are defending far better than when the club’s backline threatened to blunder its way into relegation in 2021-22; however, the team’s attack has also been quieted.

Leeds United was recently blanked 1-0 by such lightweights as Nottingham Forest and Everton and last weekend nearly by Southampton, the sloppy Elland Road hosts eked out a 1-0 defeat. FanDuel’s optimistic (-116) odds on an outcome of Over (2.5) total tallies scored between Peacocks and Sky Blues does seem to factor in the likelihood that Leeds will score. It is a speculative idea for a Leeds season that has seen scoring dry-up in winter.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (2.5)

Saturday, March 4: Arsenal F.C. vs AFC Bournemouth

Single-market bettors were warned to stay away from Arsenal’s (-480) odds to win again Saturday, at least until the smoke had cleared on Arsenal-Everton in midweek. AFC Bournemouth has taken 2 points from 2 fixtures with Newcastle United this season and was not nearly as well organized when losing 0-3 way back in August to Arsenal. There is always time to add Arsenal to a parlay later, as Gunners’ perceived fatigue angle from 2 bouts in 4 days will keep Saturday’s money-line odds from shrinking to a substantially shorter total.

In hindsight, that non-“pick” on the Toffees match looks preposterous. On Wednesday, Gunners’ speculators cleaned up on a 4-0 win over Everton (at less pricey money-line odds). That means Arsenal’s betting odds vs Bournemouth should only continue to shrink into parlay-only ground. As usual, WagerBop recommends a single bet with more payoff.

WagerBop’s Pick: Arsenal 2-0 (Correct Score Prop Bet) (+550)

Saturday, March 4: Wolverhampton F.C. vs Tottenham Hotspur

The fixture on Saturday sees Tottenham Hotspur roaring on the heels of a 2-0 win over Chelsea, fresh points lead over Liverpool (and Chelsea) that could extend into double-digits in both rivalries, and 4 Premier League victories in the team’s last 5 appearances.

So, why are this week’s money-line odds on Spurs so cautious at just (+125) or 1.25-to-1 reward and risk, and potential relegation victim Wolves of Wolverhampton drawing so much action at (+225) odds?

Spurs face an all-competition schedule that could wear Harry Kane’s lineup down, an obvious angle behind the underdog betting action on Molineux Stadium’s hosts. Tottenham must tackle a high-pressure back leg vs Milan in the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 following the Wolves match.

Tottenham is plagued with another issue too – injuries. Supporters are accustomed to bumps and bruises for Kane, Son, and company in Tottenham’s forward lines, but keeper Hugo Lloris was injured in Spurs’ recent match with Sky Blues and may not be back until April. Wolves have shown improved form against Southampton and Fulham while taking points from those opponents over the last 3 Matchdays, quite apart from what supporters remember most…Wolverhampton clocking Liverpool 3 goals to nil on 2/4.

WagerBop’s Pick: Wolves (+240)

Sunday, March 5: Liverpool vs Manchester United

Soccer’s odds-makers cannot seem to break the habit of favoring Liverpool at Anfield. Reds (+145) are garnering a substantially shorter line-to-win than visiting Manchester United (+170) for this Sunday, even though Marcus Rashford’s team has consistently out-shone Mohamed Salah’s in a winter that is ending with MUFC in Champions League qualifiers position, and Liverpool fighting to stay in touch with the top quartet of teams.

Liverpool has been recommended as a wise 2-to-1 futures pick to ascend to a top-4 finish this spring. Reds appeared to be due for “minus” lines in the Premiership top-4 and top-6 futures markets given a routine win over Crystal Palace, but nothing is “routine” for a season in which Mohamed Salah is not even in the betting odds to win top league goal scorer.

The unexciting and unhelpful 0-0 draw at Selhurst Park last will not do Reds’ gambling action any favors, and neither does Liverpool’s recent UEFA 3-goal loss.

Liverpool’s top-4 odds are oddly connected to Harry Kane’s long-shot line to win the 2023 Premiership scoring crown. If the Spurs’ striker has a terrific early spring, then Tottenham, already 9 points ahead of Liverpool on the league table, is almost certain to remain ahead of Liverpool in May. Potential long-term Reds’ speculators are also discouraged by the team’s difficult schedule in weeks to come, which includes bouts against Man United, Man City, and Arsenal. However, other Matchweeks will include extremely manageable match-ups with teams like West Ham, Bournemouth, and Wolverhampton.

Will a troubled side leap the first hurdle on Sunday? Users’ best betting pick may involve Jürgen Klopp, Reds’ manager, at some point deciding that forward numbers are not worth the risk should Liverpool-MUFC be deadlocked in the 2nd half. Aside from Reds’ formidable list of marquee match-ups on the radar, Spurs may have a few more matches than Liverpool down the stretch in which the Champions League representatives can play well and nonetheless have points taken by pesky EPL adversaries.

Nevertheless, there is no chance of Liverpool pulling off a “Man City” and simply outlasting a points-chase rival in springtime if disaster strikes Reds on home turf, and a resulting loss of morale strikes the brand’s incomplete, unproven ’23 squad at an ill-timed moment.

WagerBop’s Pick: Draw (+260)