Wagerbop Weighs in On Monday Night’s Cowboys-Buccaneers NFL Wild Card Game

The Dallas Cowboys travel to wintry Tampa for the 2022-23 Super Wildcard Weekend finale. No snow is in the forecast (this isn’t Buffalo), but the temperature at kickoff will be in the low 50s and is expected to dip into the 40s by the end of the evening – a real Florida winter.

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones gets an 8th crack at beating Tom Brady. The GOAT is 7-0 all-time vs “America’s Team,” 5-0 as a Patriot and 2-0 as a Buc. Neither of our guest pickers see Dallas getting the best of Tampa Tom, though.

That’s right! Brittany and Tim are back after picking the first 5 games of Wild Card Weekend on Saturday and Sunday. Brittany is 3-2 thus far. Tim is a perfect 5-0! Here are their SU picks for the 6th and final game of Super Wild Card Weekend:

Amateur sports fans all seem to have very strong opinions on this game. An NFL bandwagon fans study conducted by NJ.bet shows that the Cowboys have the most bandwagon fans in pro football while the Bucs have the 4th most. Every football fan across the country cares about this one.

Also per the study, Tom Brady is the nation’s favorite quarterback. Folks’ love of Tom Brady seems to weigh very heavily in their decision of which side of the line to dump money onto for Monday’s game.

The action is pretty evenly spread, but the majority of the money (the handle) is on the Bucs’ side. This heavy action caused Vegas to move the line through a key number from its opening at +3.5 to its current +2.5 state. Moving the line through a key number is not something Vegas typically does unless their hand is forced – aka tons of money came in on Tampa this week.

So what picks do the experts like in this one? Let’s dive in.

DAL (-2.5) @ TB – Total at 45.5 – Spread Opened at -3.5

How the Cowboys Got to Super Wild Card Weekend

Dallas won 12 games (12-5) for the 2nd season in a row and even beat the Vegas spreads (9-7-1 ATS) despite not having their franchise quarterback Dak Prescott for 5 weeks.

Backup Cooper Rush was forced into duty after Prescott was knocked out of Dallas’ Week 1 game vs Tampa (obviously, more on this game later). Rush started his team’s next 5 games and won 4 of them – losing only to the juggernaut Eagles who were downright unbeatable at the time.

The tables turned late in the season. Philly quarterback Jalen Hurts was out when Dallas hosted the Dirty Birds in the Week 16 rematch. Dak was fully healthy and led his Cowboys to a 40-34 victory, keeping Dallas alive in the chase for the NFC East division.

A second-straight loss by Philly in Week 17 meant the division was still in play in the regular season finale on January 8. Dallas just needed a win and a Philadelphia loss to complete the epic comeback and host a Wild Card Weekend game. The Cowboys couldn’t even check the first box as they fell flat at Washington 26-6.

This was not an empty-the-bench-and-phone-it-in Week 18 game with nothing to play for. The Cowboys gave Washington their best shot and it proved woefully inadequate – embarrassing themselves with a 20-point loss to the division’s worst team on a day that celebrating a division title was on the back of everyone’s minds.

Dak Prescott started this game and completed just 14 of 37 passes for 128 yards – his worst effort of the season. Those who complain the Cowboys are frustratingly inconsistent are 100% correct.

It is common for many avid sports bettors to have a blacklist – a few teams who we refuse to place our hard-earned money on after they burn us one too many times. I’ll confess, the Cowboys used to be on my blacklist. A 26-6 loss to a division opponent in a season finale is hardly Dallas’ only recent letdown. I’m over it, though.

Why can’t we help ourselves? Why does a Dallas bet always seem so appealing? Because the Cowboys rise to the occasion, that’s why. Dallas is 5-3 in the 8 games they’ve played this year versus playoff opponents. They rocked Minnesota’s world with a 40-3 dismantling … on the road!

At times, Dallas looks elite. Others, hopeless. Making the playoffs is a nice accomplishment for any franchise, but the Cowboys definitely limped in with that awful 26-6 beatdown at the hands of the ho-hum Commanders last week.

How the Buccaneers Got to Super Wild Card Weekend

The Bucs won their first 2 games of 2022 and then slipped into a deep funk – losing 5 of 6. It was clear that the magic was gone. Whatever Tom Brady was doing before wasn’t working. The offense was out of sorts. It was very ugly to watch at times.

Casual fans certainly did not expect this sudden decline in Tampa, but neither did the Vegas oddsmakers. Tampa continually fell short of expectations which culminated in an abysmal 4-12-1 ATS record which got even worse (1-6-1) at home – where this Wild Card game happens to be.

Were it not for the grand ineptitude of the NFC South, the Bucs would have been out of the playoff hunt by mid-season. At 3-5 through 8 weeks, Tampa was somehow right in the thick of the division race.

The Buccaneers struggled against good teams but did fare pretty well within the division. They swept New Orleans and split with both Carolina and Atlanta for an NFC South best 4-2 intradivisional record.

Against playoff teams, Tampa was just 2-4. This ominous statistic looms over Monday’s Cowboys matchup.

The Bucs did just enough to win the division – nothing more. Wins over Arizona and Carolina in Weeks 16 and 17 clinched the division even though Tampa was just 8-8 at the time.

With the 4 seed locked up and nothing else to play for, Tampa tanked their Week 18 game in Atlanta under the guise of “staying healthy” and allowed their record to fall to 8-9. Tampa becomes the first NFL playoff team with a losing record since the 7-9 Commanders in 2020-21.

It’s funny how things come full circle. That season, Washington nearly pulled a monumental upset against the 11-5 Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round. Now, it’s the 8-9 Bucs looking to pull an upset against a regular season powerhouse.

The Last Time the Cowboys-Buccaneers Met

The Bucs and ‘Boys have squared off twice since Brady landed in Tampa – once to kick off the 2021 regular season and again in Week 1 this season. Tampa Bay won both battles.

Let’s take it back to September of 2021 and recap that matchup. The juxtaposition between the Bucs then and now is astounding.

Buccaneers 31 Cowboys 29, Week 1, 2021. Brady Leads 2-Minute Drive to Win Shootout

One of the lesser talked about side effects of COVID is the acute desire to throw a football. This Cowboys-Bucs Week 1 meeting to kick off the 2021 season was the first game back inside a full-capacity NFL stadium since the country had locked down for the disease, and both teams totally abandoned the run.

Dak Prescott threw 58 passes for 403 yards. Brady threw 50 for 379. Dak tossed 3 touchdown scores and a pick. Brady had a 4-2 ratio.

To say there was no rushing in this game would be accurate. Zeke Elliott led all rushers with 33 yards.

Amari Cooper was Prescott’s guy out wide – hauling in 13 passes for 139 yards and 2 scores. He’s now in Cleveland. Ceedee Lamb also played a major role in the passing game – catching 7 passes for 104 yards and a TD on 15 targets.

Lamb played in 16 of the Cowboys’ 17 games last year and never received more targets than he did in this Week 1 affair.

On Tampa’s side, Brady loved hooking up with Antonio Brown (who knows where he is now). Brown caught 5 passes for 121 yards and a TD. Chris Godwin caught 9 passes in that game for 105 yards and 1 score. He’s still in the Bay. Gronk had a big game also but he now works for Fox NFL Broadcasting.

The Bucs were 9-point favorites in this one which means they failed to cover despite the SU win. After this initial loss, Dallas would go on to win 6 straight and finish the season 12-5.

Buccaneers 19 Cowboys 3, Week 1, 2022. Bucs Manhandle Cowboys with Smothering Defense and Punishing Ground Game

Jump to one year later and the Cowboys again met the Buccaneers in Week 1. This one unfolded completely differently – with Tampa beating Dallas into submission 19-3.

Brady only threw 27 passes in this one. Dak, trailing for the entire game, threw 29, until he broke his thumb late in the fourth quarter. Backup Cooper Rush spelled him and would throw 13 more passes. These are pretty normal numbers, though. Nothing like the 108 combined passes back in Week 1 of 2021.

Tampa running back Leonard Fournette eked out a meager 32 rushing yards against Dallas in 2021 but put the game away in 2022 with 127. Mike Evans was Tom Brady’s favorite receiver in this one – catching 5 passes for 71 yards and a score.

Dallas’ offensive efforts were flummoxed all game by a healthy Tampa defense which held Dak Prescott to 14-29 passing for 134 yards and a pick. Prescott’s two worst games of 2022 were the very first (this one) and the very last (Washington).

Establishing the Running Game is the Utmost Priority in the Cowboys-Buccaneers Game

What we have here is a battle between a team who is used to dictating the terms of their games (Dallas) and a team who has been playing reactionary football all season (Bucs).

Every team tries to run the football. It’s no secret. Even the most pass-happy, air-it-out coaches in the league understand the importance of a solid run game. Look what happened to the Chargers on Saturday night. LA couldn’t put the game on ice in the 2nd half despite a 27-point lead. They allowed Jacksonville to rally.

The Chargers didn’t even turn the ball over! They just couldn’t pick up first downs on the ground or run clock – forced to keep punting it right back to the Jags after 2ish minutes of game time.

The Buccaneers offense is more Chargers-esque than anyone in Florida would care to admit. The Chargers rank 29th in the league in rushing attempts per game. Tampa Bay ranks dead last.

The Chargers were held under 90 rushing yards 12 times in 2022. Tampa Bay was held under 90 rushing yards … also 12 times. Wow.

Far too often, Bucs games devolved into the Tom Brady Show as Tampa would blatantly abandon the run. This may have worked on occasion in Brady’s prime but not when he’s pushing 50.

Think back to that Week 1 win against Dallas. The Bucs look their best when Fournette racks up the carries and the Tom Brady usage is selective. Bucs OC Byron Leftwich seems dead set on getting Tom Brady his numbers, though. Brady has eclipsed 50 pass attempts 5 times in 2022 – throwing for 379+ yards (his total against Dallas in 2021) twice.

The tale of the tape says that the more Brady throws, the worse his team performs. Check it out. The Bucs have struggled to establish the run against good teams in 2022. They’re 2-4 against fellow playoff teams.

In Tampa’s 2 wins against playoff teams (Dallas and Seattle), Brady threw the ball 27 and 29 times respectively. In the 4 losses (Chiefs, Ravens, 49ers, Bengals), Brady threw the ball an average of 49 times. 49!

The Cowboys, on the other hand, rarely have trouble running the football. The two-headed attack of Tony Pollard (1,007 rushing yards) and Ezekiel Elliott (876 rushing yards) is a nightmare to stop. You can’t stack the box for fear of letting 1,359-yard receiver Ceedee Lamb loose in the secondary.

We mentioned before that Tampa has been held under 90 rush yards 12 times this season. Dallas’ number? 4. Only 4 times has the Cowboys running game been shut down in 2022. They’ve finished 2-2 in these games. One of those losses was the Week 1 battle with Tampa in which the Cowboys only managed 71 yards on the ground.

It is clear as day, Tampa is capable of winning games when they run the football a little bit and don’t overuse poor Tom. They’re hopeless when Brady has to throw 55 times. Dallas can win either way. Point being, Tampa better do everything in their power to run the football or Tom Brady may be blown off his home field.

Of course, having the privilege of turning to the run is only possible with a defense that doesn’t put the team in early deficits. Tampa’s defense has been extremely suspect of late.

Can the Buccaneers’ Defense Hold Up Against the 4th-Best Offense in the NFL?

Dallas scores 27.5 points per game – 4th-most in football. Only Kansas City, Buffalo and Philadelphia score more – each of which are either 1 or 2 seeds in their respective conferences.

Tampa Bay scores 18.4 points per game which ranks 25th in the league. The Bucs need to hold Dallas to around 17-24 points for their best shot. Asking the Bucs’ offense to score 30 points to win a football game would be asking them to do something they’ve only managed once this season (Carolina in Week 16).

The Buccaneers also scored 30 points against Kansas City in Week 4, but that was in a losing effort (41-31).

When healthy, the Bucs can stop anyone. Without Shaq Barrett (out) and Vita Vea (very questionable), this defense doesn’t look the same. The Bucs have allowed point totals of 30, 24, 16, 34 and 35 in their last 5 games which amounts to 27.8 points per contest.

That 16-point defensive effort is great, but it came in Week 16 against the 4-13 Arizona Cardinals playing with backup quarterback Trace McSorely. Even then, the Bucs narrowly won by 3 points in overtime.

Instead of “peaking at the right time” like good teams are supposed to, the Bucs defense – their most important unit – is waning.

Kreighton’s DAL-TB Pick: Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)

Everything I read, research and see with my eyes indicates that Dallas is about twice as talented as Tampa Bay. Two factors keep the spread close, however: that bandwagon Tom Brady love we mentioned earlier and the Cowboys’ tendency to play down to weak competition.

The best time to bet on the Dallas Cowboys spreads is right after a down performance. They gave us a doozy of a downer last week, meaning this (-2.5) spread is ripe for the pickin’.

The run game is going to be there for Dallas. Can we say that with the same level of certainty for Tampa Bay? No.

If all goes well for the Cowboys, they steamroll the Bucs and win by multiple touchdowns – maybe even getting Cooper Rush in there to do the kneeling. If all goes well for the Bucs, they might win by 6.

Tampa beat Dallas by 16 points in Week 1 and then beat New Orleans by 10 the following week. Since, Tampa’s largest margin of victory has been 6 points while they’ve lost by 6 or more 6 separate times.

I oppose our guest pickers in this one and take the Cowboys to both win and cover the 2.5-point spread which those loyal Brady fans have shifted from the much-less-desirable 3.5-point mark.