Using Revenge in the MLB Playoffs

It makes for a great narrative – this team lost Game 1 as the favorite so you can be sure they will come back hungry in Game 2.

Sportscasters and other media are always trying to sell us on a revenge story. When they are predicting a series outcome, they almost always anticipate 6 or 7 hard-fought games. I hate to break it to you, but not all series are close. Sweeps and 5-game routs happen all the time.

So when can we trust the media and bet on the team seeking revenge? Is there a pattern we can take advantage of? My goal today is to answer these questions and create a system I am confident in as we approach the league championship and World series.

Be Careful With Blind Bets

Going out and blindly putting money down on yesterday’s loser is not only risky, but according to the numbers, downright dangerous. You might as well play Roulette because you are going to have the same type of success living and dying with revenge teams.

Check out the numbers for teams coming off a playoff loss and notice the lack of any useful pattern.

Year	SU Record	Avg Line	Profit
2018*	4-5	110.5	-$72
2017	16-13	104.6	$289
2016	11-15	-111.1	-$550
2015	15-12	-114.0	$211
2014	10-13	-115.8	-$583
2013	17-12	-104.3	$419
2012	13-15	-107.8	-$309
2011	20-11	-101.5	$947
2010	13-12	-102.3	$78
2009	11-12	-108.9	-$170
2008	13-12	-113.6	-$65
2007	4-17	107.9	-$1,410

* accurate as of 12:00 ET 10/9/18

Some undoubtedly noticed there is a positive-negative-positive trend going back several years, but that is a flimsy basis on which to wager my hard-earned money. I need something more definite before I am willing to go all in.

Finding Good Value in the MLB Playoffs

After some trial-and-error tweaking, I found that home underdogs coming off a loss fare exceptionally well in the MLB playoffs. I decided to share these numbers with you, as well.

Year	SU Record	Avg Line	Profit
2018*	1-0	140.0	$140
2017	4-1	108.4	$340
2016	2-3	-131.2	-$95
2015	1-2	116.3	-$75
2014	2-0	110.0	$220
2013	4-0	107.5	$433
2012	1-0	125.0	$125
2011	2-0	107.5	$215
2010	3-3	106.7	$15

* accurate as of 12:00 ET 10/9/18

Admittedly, 2015 and 2016 were clunker years for this system, but they were not even bad. One average year on this system will more than make up for the two off years put together.

Look at that 2011-14 stretch. If a 9-0 run does not excite you, nothing will.

The Verdict on Revenge Games

Do your homework if the media is hyping a team down 2-0 in the series simply because they are “desperate”. Remember, if a team could win just by getting motivated they would not wait until the playoffs to harness that power.

Before you feel like buying into the hype, run the numbers to see if it makes sense. If you are thinking of betting a home underdog off a loss, you are probably making a good decision.