Playoff football is the best football, but you don’t have to just be a fan this January. How about having a leg up on the boys in Vegas and churning a profit while watching? Sounds pretty great, huh?
Announcing Wagerbop’s Annual NFL Playoffs Betting Guide! This is the most comprehensive NFL Playoffs betting guide on the internet and you, my friend, are receiving this gem for free. Trust us, the information contained in this guide cannot be found in one place anywhere else.
Wagerbop is very keen on finding current profitable betting trends and passing them on to you – our loyal readers. Be sure to check out our NFL Playoff Picture analysis for even more bookie-beating content and a breakdown of the NFL’s new 14-team postseason format.
How We Get Our NFL Playoffs Data
This guide uses data from the past 10 postseasons, which would take us back to the 2012-13 NFL season. 10 years worth of data is a large enough sample size to allow for natural regression but not too large to where trends get swallowed up and go undetected.
FiveThirtyEight is an awesome source for data of all kinds – sports and otherwise. Stathead is a well-known and highly-trusted tool in the world of sports for digging up detailed team and player query info. Football Reference is a great resource for all things pigskin. TeamRankings is also a spectacular site for team stats and betting trends across all sports. Killersports makes it easy to find betting trends with their easy-to-use query tool.
Of course, some of this data is compiled with the age-old combo of pencil, paper, and an Iphone calculator.
Does Home-Field Advantage Exist in the NFL Playoffs?
Of course there’s a home-field advantage! Have you ever watched sports?!
– Some Guy Who’s Assuming
There is no margin for hunches when the NFL playoffs roll around. Fewer yet bigger games in January mean the books are receiving more volume and the market becomes uber-efficient.
We need to scratch and claw for each percentage point of +EV edge we can muster. Leaving important decisions to hunches or gut feelings is not what smart or winning sports bettors do.
So home teams probably have an advantage, right? We need to make sure. Home teams only won 51.4% of their games SU between 2019 and 2021. Is COVID to blame? Maybe, but who’s to say things will automatically bounce back to the way they were?
Yes, home teams in the NFL typically have an edge in on-field play in the regular season. What about ATS, though? And what about the playoffs?
Take a look at the regular season win rates and lines for home teams over the past 10 regular seasons:
| Season | Home SU | Home ATS | Line |
| 2022-23* | 129-103-2 (55.6%) | 116-112-6 (50.9%) | -1.5 |
| 2021-22 | 140-131-1 (51.7%) | 129-140-3 (48.0%) | -1.7 |
| 2020-21** | 127-125-1 (50.4%) | 121-125-7 (49.2%) | -1.2 |
| 2019-20 | 130-120-1 (52.0%) | 103-140-8 (42.4%) | -1.9 |
| 2018-19 | 152-99-2 (60.6%) | 119-124-10 (49.0%) | -2.4 |
| 2017-18 | 143-108 (57.0%) | 125-114-12 (52.3%) | -2.1 |
| 2016-17 | 145-106-1 (57.8%) | 120-125-7 (49.0%) | -2.1 |
| 2015-16 | 136-117 (53.8%) | 115-131-7 (46.7%) | -2.2 |
| 2014-15 | 145-107-1 (57.5%) | 121-131-1 (48.0%) | -2.5 |
| 2013-14 | 152-101-1 (60.1%) | 133-115-6 (53.6%) | -2.5 |
| Total | 55.6% | 48.9% | -2.0 |
* through 16 weeks of 2022 regular season
** COVID playoffs with empty stadiums
Beyond the fact that home teams are not blindly profitable, note that spreads for home NFL teams have been shrinking over the past decade.
Home field in the regular season is worth about a point and a half now. The trend of shrinking home-field spreads extends further than 10 years – dating back to the late 1980s. This is very important to understand!
The old adage that home field is worth 3 points is just that, an old adage. Home-field advantage in the NFL was worth about 3 points – possibly even more – back when NFL betting was first getting popularized in the United States. This was the 1950s and 60s.
The masses were learning to handicap NFL games for the first time so it makes sense that the 3-point home-field standard became ingrained in folks’ minds. The implementation of instant replay in the NFL game – first used in 1986 – helped to reduce the bias of the home crowd in the minds of referees, and home-field advantage has been shrinking ever since.
Turns out that playing at home is only worth about an extra point, not several points. Increased comfort in travel and lodging for road teams helps to reduce home-field advantage, as well.
Home Teams ATS and SU in the NFL Playoffs
Regular season numbers can give us a baseline but aren’t why we’re here. Let’s start getting into postseason data by exploring home winning percentages in the NFL playoffs over the last 10 years. This first table shows the ATS and SU win rates along with the average lines for home playoff teams since 2012-13.
Remember, the Super Bowl is a neutral site game (even if the host team happens to make it). This means there have been 10 true home games in each postseason since the 6-team per conference NFL playoff format was adopted in 1990 and 12 true home games the last 2 seasons with the 7-team format.
| Postseason | Home SU | Home ATS | Line |
| 2021-22 | 7-5 (58.3%) | 6-6 (50%) | -5.1 |
| 2020-21* | 7-6 (53.8%) | 6-7 (46.2%) | -2.8 |
| 2019-20 | 6-4 (60%) | 6-4 (60%) | -6.0 |
| 2018-19 | 5-5 (50%) | 3-6-1 (33.3%) | -4.3 |
| 2017-18 | 7-3 (70%) | 3-6-1 (33.3%) | -5.6 |
| 2016-17 | 8-2 (80%) | 8-2 (80%) | -7.0 |
| 2015-16 | 6-4 (60%) | 6-4 (60%) | -1.4 |
| 2014-15 | 8-2 (80%) | 4-6 (40%) | -6.7 |
| 2013-14 | 6-4 (60%) | 3-5-2 (37.5%) | -3.9 |
| 2012-13 | 6-4 (60%) | 5-5 (50%) | -4.7 |
| Total | 66-39 (62.9%) | 50-51-4 (49.5%) | -4.7 |
* COVID playoffs with empty stadiums
At first glance, it may seem that home teams in the playoffs are given much larger spreads to cover than in the regular season. Remember, almost all home playoff teams are favorites because of seeding. Compare only the regular season favorites to playoff favorites and you’ll find that there is really no difference at all.
49.5% ATS is well below our 52.4% break-even point for spreads. That winning percentage is not profitable at all.
62.9% SU is also not profitable. If we use our formula from the above link, we find that to break even at -4.7 we would need to win approximately 68-69% of our moneyline bets.
Both the spread and moneyline have been -EV for home playoff teams over the past 10 postseasons.
Home Teams ATS and SU in Wild Card Weekend
What if we isolate Wild Card Weekend (or Super Wild Card Weekend as it’s now known)? Do home teams fare better or worse in the first round of the NFL Playoffs, which is more prone to lopsided matchups?
| Postseason | Home SU | Home ATS | Line |
| 2021-22 | 5-1 (83.3%) | 5-1 (83.3%) | -6.0 |
| 2020-21* | 2-4 (33.3%) | 2-4 (33.3%) | -2.2 |
| 2019-20 | 1-3 (25%) | 1-3 (25%) | -3.2 |
| 2018-19 | 0-3-1 (0%) | 1-3 (25%) | -2.8 |
| 2017-18 | 0-4 (0%) | 2-2 (50%) | -7.1 |
| 2016-17 | 4-0 (100%) | 4-0 (100%) | -7.4 |
| 2015-16 | 2-2 (50%) | 0-4 (0%) | +2.2 |
| 2014-15 | 2-2 (50%) | 3-1 (75%) | -4.6 |
| 2013-14 | 0-2-2 (0%) | 1-3 (25%) | -1.8 |
| 2012-13 | 3-1 (75%) | 3-1 (75%) | -4.6 |
| Total | 22-22 (50%) | 19-22-3 (46.3%) | -3.7 |
* COVID playoffs with empty stadiums
Turns out home teams have an even rougher time early in the NFL playoffs. The converse of the home teams’ 46.3% ATS win rate would be 53.7% for road teams. This is slightly profitable as it’s higher than 52.4%. Smart bettors lean road teams early in the NFL playoffs and look harder at home teams late.
We unearthed an amazing totals trend which we’ll mention briefly here and expand upon later in our totals betting section. The under has hit in 31 of 44 games on Wild Card Weekend over the past 10 NFL postseasons. That’s a 70.5% win rate!
NFL Playoffs: Favorites vs Underdogs
There are 3 outcomes to any football game: the favorite wins and covers the spread, the favorite wins but doesn’t cover, or the underdog wins straight up. 2 of these 3 outcomes favor the underdog bettor.
– Somebody’s Uncle in 1977
Getting points before the game kicks off is an incredible advantage, but it takes some serious guts to pick against a powerhouse 14-2 team at home in late January.
Nailing an underdog pick lends itself to plenty of I told you so moments with your friends. The opposite – betting against the heavy favorite who wins by 30 – can make you feel very stupid. We’ve all been there.
So which option is better? Which is +EV? Great questions! This first table displays how favorites have fared both ATS and SU over the past 10 NFL postseasons.
Favorites SU and ATS in the NFL Playoffs
| Postseason | Faves SU | Faves ATS | Line |
| 2021-22 | 8-5 (61.5%) | 6-7 (46.2%) | -5.1 |
| 2020-21* | 8-5 (61.5%) | 5-8 (38.5%) | -5.2 |
| 2019-20 | 8-3 (72.7%) | 8-3 (72.7%) | -5.8 |
| 2018-19 | 6-5 (54.5%) | 4-6-1 (40%) | -4.1 |
| 2017-18 | 5-6 (45.5%) | 1-9-1 (10%) | -6.5 |
| 2016-17 | 9-2 (81.8%) | 9-2 (81.8%) | -6.7 |
| 2015-16 | 8-3 (72.7%) | 4-7 (36.4%) | -4.0 |
| 2014-15 | 9-2 (81.8%) | 5-6 (45.5%) | -6.2 |
| 2013-14 | 8-3 (72.7%) | 4-5-2 (44.4%) | -4.5 |
| 2012-13 | 8-3 (72.7%) | 7-4 (63.6%) | -5.8 |
| Total | 77-37 (67.5%) | 53-57-4 (48.2%) | -5.4 |
* COVID playoffs with empty stadiums
There are two numbers we need to keep in mind to make sense of these percentages. The first is 52.4%. Most sports bettors know that 52.4% is the break even point for point spread bets. The extra 2.4% is necessary because the odds are -110 for these bets instead of an even pick ’em.
Favorites have won ATS at a 48.2% clip over the past 10 postseasons, which is well below the break even mark – making blind bets of favorites a terrible play on the point spread in the NFL playoffs.
Now, about that SU win rate. This rate fluctuates based on the average moneyline. With a moneyline of -5.4, favorites would need to win SU at a rate of about 72% in order to break even. 67.5% is far below this mark, as well.
The formula to find SU break-even rates can be found in the above link where we explore some of the math behind sports betting.
Because favorites have performed poorly, smart bettors should be leaning underdogs in the NFL playoffs, although betting them blindly will not yield a profit.
Betting Home Underdogs in the NFL Playoffs
When we looked at home vs road, they were pretty even – with road teams playing better in the Wild Card Round and home teams playing better in the later rounds. When we looked at favorite vs dog, dogs were better bets – albeit slightly. It is only logical to see what the numbers look like when we combine home/road and fave/dog filters.
The home team is favored in nearly every single NFL playoff game due to seeding. It would be redundant to look at home favorites or road dogs. Instead, let’s look at the oddball cases – home dogs.
There are just a couple of games (if any) per postseason in which the home team is the dog. This is because the higher seed – normally the better team – gets to play at home for most of the playoffs.
| Postseason | SU Record | ATS Record | Line |
| 2021-22 | – | – | – |
| 2020-21* | 1-2 | 2-1 | +5.0 |
| 2019-20 | 0-1 | 0-1 | +1.0 |
| 2018-19 | — | — | — |
| 2017-18 | 2-0 | 2-0 | +2.8 |
| 2016-17 | — | — | — |
| 2015-16 | 1-3 | 3-1 | +3.2 |
| 2014-15 | — | — | — |
| 2013-14 | 0-2 | 0-1-1 | +2.2 |
| 2012-13 | 0-2 | 0-2 | +3.2 |
| Total | 4-10 (28.6%) | 7-6-1 (53.8%) | +3.2 |
* COVID playoffs with empty stadiums
The ATS record for home dogs are slightly profitable – especially if you filter only to the past 7 postseasons (70% in 10 games).
It should go without saying, but since home dogs are decent bets, road favorites should be faded.
Betting the Over/Under Point Total in the NFL Playoffs
We hope more people don’t figure out how profitable betting totals can be.
– The Vegas Sportsbooks
Spreads and moneylines are not the only way to make money betting playoff football. The point total can also be a lucrative bet.
The largest incentive for betting the total in lieu of the spread/moneyline is not having to pick who will win the game. With totals, you simply predict how the game will flow, which many claim to be easier to predict than winners and losers.
The following table shows how often the over and under have hit over the past 10 NFL postseasons.
| Postseason | Over % | Under % |
| 2021-22 | 4-9 (30.8%) | 9-4 (69.2%) |
| 2020-21* | 6-7 (46.2%) | 7-6 (53.8%) |
| 2019-20 | 4-7 (36.4%) | 7-4 (63.6%) |
| 2018-19 | 4-7 (36.4%) | 7-4 (63.6%) |
| 2017-18 | 6-5 (54.5%) | 5-6 (45.5%) |
| 2016-17 | 8-3 (72.7%) | 3-8 (27.3%) |
| 2015-16 | 4-7 (36.4%) | 7-4 (63.6%) |
| 2014-15 | 6-5 (54.5%) | 5-6 (45.5%) |
| 2013-14 | 3-7-1 (30%) | 7-3-1 (70%) |
| 2012-13 | 6-5 (54.5%) | 5-6 (45.5%) |
| Total | 51-62-1 (45.1%) | 62-51-1 (54.9%) |
* COVID playoffs with empty stadiums
54.9% on the unders is a winning rate, and they’ve been very hot over the past 4 postseasons (62.5%).
The absolute best totals betting trends we’ve found for the NFL postseason is that the under has hit in 31 of 44 games on Wild Card Weekend over the past 10 NFL postseasons. That’s a 70.5% win rate!
This makes overs a popular lean in the later rounds of the NFL postseason.
Totals by Point Range in the NFL Postseason
Not all point totals are created equal. Here’s a look at how different point ranges have fared on the over/under market since the 2012-13 NFL postseason.
| Total | Over % | Under % |
| Under 40 Pts | 3-0 (100%) | 0-3 (0%) |
| 40-44 Pts | 8-13-1 (38.1%) | 13-8-1 (61.9%) |
| 45-49 Pts | 27-21 (56.2%) | 21-27 (43.8%) |
| 50-54 Pts | 8-11 (42.1%) | 11-8 (57.9%) |
| 55+ Pts | 4-5 (44.4%) | 5-4 (55.6%) |
Unders seem to hit a bit more across the board (which we’ve already seen above), but these sample sizes are too small to gather any meaningful data.
Winning Percentage by Seed in the NFL Playoffs
The 2020 NFL postseason reformatting changed up the seeding a bit (added a 7 seed plus the 2 seed no longer gets a bye), but looking back at records by seed will be beneficial in unearthing trends.
Recall that in lieu of a traditional bracket style tournament the NFL reseeds after the Wild Card Round. This means the highest remaining seed next plays the lowest remaining seed, the second-highest plays the second-lowest and so on.
The seeds are kept constant round-by-round in this table. This means if you started the postseason as the #4 seed each game played would count toward the stats for the #4 seeds.
Important to note is that the Super Bowl is omitted from this study. Our intention is to isolate how 1-seeds, 2-seeds, etc. perform against the rest of the conference, and 1-vs-1 or 1-vs-2 Super Bowl matchups will just skew the numbers.
| Seed | # of Games | ATS Record (%) | SU Record (%) |
| 1 | 35 | 17-17-1 (50%) | 26-9 (74.3%) |
| 2 | 40 | 21-19 (52.5%) | 24-16 (60%) |
| 3 | 29 | 10-18-1 (37,7%) | 9-20 (31.0%) |
| 4 | 36 | 18-17-1 (51.4%) | 19-17 (52.8%) |
| 5 | 31 | 14-16-1 (46.7%) | 12-19 (38.7%) |
| 6 | 35 | 21-12-2 (63.6%) | 15-20 (42.9%) |
| 7 | 4 | 1-3 (25%) | 0-4 (0%) |
The 7 seed was brand new in the 2020-21 Playoffs. Assume 7 seeds to perform similarly to 6 seeds in years past until we get some reliable data on them. 6 seeds have actually been good ATS bets of late.
Team-By-Team Records in the NFL Playoffs
Some NFL teams just have a knack for winning playoff football games while others whither in the limelight. We need to distinguish these teams from one another.
This table contains data for each NFL team in the postseason this year. The corresponding numbers are each teams’ ATS and SU playoff records since the 2017-18 season. We decided to only go back 5 postseasons on this one because if we go back too far, the rosters and coaches are totally different and any relevance to today’s players is lost.
| Team | # of Games | ATS Record | SU Record | Avg Line |
| Chiefs | 12 | 7-5 (58.3%) | 8-4 (66.7%) | -5.9 |
| Patriots | 8 | 4-4 (50%) | 5-3 (62.5%) | -3.8 |
| Eagles | 7 | 5-2 (71.4%) | 4-3 (57.1%) | +4.4 |
| Saints | 7 | 1-5-1 (16.7%) | 3-4 (42.9%) | -4.7 |
| Bills | 7 | 3-4 (42.9%) | 3-4 (42.9%) | +0.5 |
| Titans | 7 | 3-4 (42.9%) | 3-4 (42.9%) | +6.1 |
| Buccaneers | 6 | 4-2 (66.7%) | 5-1 (83.3%) | -1.5 |
| 49ers | 6 | 5-1 (83.3%) | 4-2 (66.7%) | -0.2 |
| Packers | 5 | 2-3 (40%) | 2-3 (40%) | -2.5 |
| Bengals | 4 | 4-0 (100%) | 3-1 (75%) | +2.4 |
| Ravens | 4 | 1-3 (25%) | 1-3 (25%) | -3.2 |
| Seahawks | 4 | 1-2-1 (33.3%) | 1-3 (25%) | +0.6 |
| Vikings | 4 | 1-2-1 (33.3%) | 2-2 (50%) | +1.5 |
| Cowboys | 3 | 0-2-1 (0%) | 1-2 (33.3%) | +0.5 |
| Steelers | 3 | 0-3 (0%) | 0-3 (0%) | -0.3 |
| Jaguars | 3 | 2-1 (66.7%) | 2-1 (66.7%) | +2 |
| Chargers | 2 | 1-1 (50%) | 1-1 (50%) | +4 |
| Raiders | 1 | 0-1 (0%) | 0-1 (0%) | +6 |
| Commanders | 1 | 1-0 (100%) | 0-1 (0%) | +8.5 |
| Panthers | 1 | 1-0 (100%) | 0-1 (0%) | +6.5 |
| Dolphins | 0 | – | – | – |
| Jets | 0 | – | – | – |
| Lions | 0 | – | – | – |
| Panthers | 0 | – | – | – |
Team-By-Team HOME Records in the NFL Playoffs
We need to identify the teams with a strong home-field advantage. Certain clubs are deadly in front of their home crowds, especially in the postseason. In the previous table, we only went back 5 years because the core of the team needed to remain the same. For this table, we reverted back to the default 10-year span because a home-field advantage is not something that will come and go quickly.
| Team | # of Games | ATS Record | SU Record | Avg Line |
| Patriots | 12 | 8-4 (66.7%) | 10-2 (83.3%) | -8.1 |
| Chiefs | 11 | 6-5 (54.5%) | 7-4 (63.6%) | -6.2 |
| Packers | 8 | 4-3-1 (57.1%) | 5-3 (62.5%) | -4.9 |
| Saints | 6 | 1-5 (16.7%) | 3-3 (50%) | -6.3 |
| Seahawks | 6 | 3-3 (50%) | 5-1 (83.3%) | -7.4 |
| Cowboys | 4 | 0-3-1 (0%) | 2-2 (50%) | -4.2 |
| Steelers | 4 | 1-3 (25%) | 1-3 (25%) | -6.8 |
| Panthers | 4 | 3-1 (75%) | 3-1 (75%) | -2.4 |
| Eagles | 4 | 2-2 (50%) | 2-2 (50%) | +1 |
| Bills | 3 | 2-1 (66.7%) | 3-0 (100%) | -4.3 |
| Buccaneers | 3 | 2-1 (66.7%) | 2-1 (66.7%) | -2.2 |
| Bengals | 3 | 2-1 (66.7%) | 1-2 (33.3%) | -3.3 |
| 49ers | 3 | 3-0 (100%) | 3-0 (100%) | -6.2 |
| Commanders | 3 | 1-2 (33.3%) | 0-3 (0%) | +3.5 |
| Ravens | 3 | 1-2 (33.3%) | 1-2 (33.3%) | -6.3 |
| Titans | 2 | 0-2 (0%) | 0-2 (0%) | -0.2 |
| Vikings | 2 | 1-0-1 (100%) | 1-1 (50%) | -0.2 |
| Jaguars | 1 | 0-1 (100%) | 1-0 (100%) | -8.5 |
| Chargers | 0 | – | – | – |
| Dolphins | 0 | – | – | – |
| Jets | 0 | – | – | – |
| Lions | 0 | – | – | – |
| Panthers | 0 | – | – | – |
| Raiders | 0 | – | – | – |
With a working knowledge of home vs road, dog vs fave, over vs under and how each team fares historically – 2022-23 is lined up to be your best season of NFL playoff football betting yet!
See you on top, boppers!
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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