Wagerbop’s annual MLB Playoffs Betting Guide is the most loaded, juiciest piece of MLB betting info available for free on the internet. This 2022 version is flush with your most pressing postseason baseball betting questions such as: Are the Dodgers a good pick at home? Do dogs or faves win Game 1 more often? Is there a home-field advantage in the MLB Playoffs? Who should I bet in an MLB Game 7?
How Do We Get Our MLB Playoffs Data?
This is the most comprehensive MLB Playoffs betting guide on the internet and you, my friend, are receiving this gem for free. You will not find all of this information in one place anywhere else. We checked.
Playoff baseball is a different beast. It is imperative that informed decisions are made. All data is from the past 10 postseasons (excluding 2020), which takes us back to the 2011 season. 10 years worth of data is a large enough sample size to allow for natural regression but not too large to where trends get swallowed up and go undetected.
The majority of data in this piece comes from Killersports‘ SDQL feature, Stathead‘s MLB research tools, Baseball Savant, TeamRankings, ESPN and Fangraphs.
2022 MLB Postseason Format
210 days. 2,430 games. 5,010 home runs. 1 million 6 thousand miles traveled. It’s all led to this moment.
Per the new collective bargaining agreement, 12 teams make the playoffs – 6 from each league. The 3 division winners in each league will receive seeds 1, 2, and 3 according to record. Seeds 4, 5, and 6 will then be occupied by Wild Cards – even if the record of the Wild Card trumps that of a division winner.
Unlike the NBA in which a Wild Card team could occupy the 2 seed, the MLB elects to reserve the top seeds for its division winners.
No longer do we have the 1-game Wild Card play in. As fun as that was, the MLB has opted to go with a couple of best-of-3 series in each league for the Wild Card Round.
Once past the initial 3-game series of the Wild Card Round is the best-of-5 Divisional Round. The league championships and World Series are both the classic best-of-7 format.
Unlike the NFL playoffs, there is no reseeding after the 1st round. The 3-6 winner will always face the 2 seed. Likewise, the 4-5 winner will always face the 1 seed.
MLB Playoffs Picture – September/October 2022
National League
Here is a snapshot of the National League side of the postseason bracket should the season end today.
The Mets and Braves are tied entering play, but New York would get the nod based on head-to-head record throughout the season.
Per the new CBA, the MLB has done away with “Game 163s”. Ties in the standings at the end of the season will be broken by head-to-head record or other tiebreakers – in a similar vein to the NFL.
This division race has major implications under the new CBA which places far more importance on winning the division than the previous rules. The winner of the NL East will be the 2 seed and get a first-round bye. The 2nd-place finisher will be the 4-seed, have to play a Wild Card series and then face the Dodgers in the NLDS.
Here is a quick look at the National League Wild Card situation entering the final week of the 2022 regular season.
The Brewers once led the NL Central but now need a heroic final-hour comeback to save their season. Milwaukee sliding has allowed the Phillies to slip into playoff territory. This would be Philadelphia’s first playoff appearance since 2011.
American League
Here is the current American League playoff bracket should play end today.
The Yankees started like gangbusters but have succumbed to the Astros and their 102 wins. The Guardians are the envy of the league – grabbing a cush top-3 playoff spot despite hovering around .500 for most of the season.
Below is a look at the American League Wild Card chase in the final week of the 2022 regular season.
The Mariners attempt to end the longest postseason drought in major pro sports by holding onto a 3.5-game lead to grab an American League Wild Card bid.
Here’s a tweet from 2020 which illustrates the misery that has been Seattle Mariners baseball over the past 40 years. Bear in mind the Mariners streak is up to 20 seasons now.
After snapping an 18-year drought to reach the playoffs in 1995, the Mariners find themselves in yet another 18-year stretch with no postseason, the longest active drought in MLB.
The four other teams with active streaks over 7 seasons have made the World Series since 1995. pic.twitter.com/q0D0yQXWyS
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 21, 2020
Checking for Home-Field Advantage in the MLB Playoffs
Does home field matter in the MLB playoffs? Probably … it has to matter, right? It is important we always make informed decisions when wagering our hard-earned money. Let’s check the numbers and derive a definitive answer.
Keep in mind that home-field advantage did not exist during the 2020 MLB postseason as there was a “playoff bubble” in which all games were played on neutral fields. The 2020 postseason will be excluded from the search results – as it should.
Home Teams on the Moneyline and Runline
Let’s start by exploring home winning percentages in the MLB playoffs. This first table shows the moneyline and runline win rates along with the average lines for home playoff teams over the past 10 full seasons.
| Season | ML % | Avg ML | ML Profit | RL % | Avg RL | RL Profit |
| 2021 | 63.2% | -127 | $801 | 51.4% | +127 | $650 |
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 45.9% | -133 | -$692 | 37.8% | +112 | -$900 |
| 2018 | 51.5% | -140 | -$361 | 42.4% | +113 | -$440 |
| 2017 | 71.1% | -138 | $1,418 | 65.8% | +122 | $1,845 |
| 2016 | 48.6% | -127 | -$475 | 48.6% | +108 | $154 |
| 2015 | 52.8% | -129 | -$165 | 51.4% | +121 | $485 |
| 2014 | 56.2% | -130 | -$176 | 40.6% | +126 | -$343 |
| 2013 | 60.5% | -120 | $619 | 60.5% | +115 | $1,328 |
| 2012 | 48.6% | -130 | -$693 | 43.2% | +128 | $9 |
| 2011 | 60.5% | -137 | $352 | 50.0% | +139 | $702 |
| Total | 55.9% | -131 | $528 | 49.3% | +121 | $3,333 |
The famed 52.4% break-even point is for spreads at (-110). Moneylines and runlines can be all over the board so we need to calculate the break-even points required for each.
Using the formula from the above link, we can determine that moneyline odds of (-131) dictate a break-even point of 56.7%. Our home teams have barely eked out a profit by winning as large favorites more often but dropping games as small favorites.
We need to break this down by favorites and underdogs:
Home favorites are 57.4% with average moneyline odds of (-150) – putting them at a $1,089 deficit.
Runline home favorites are 44.7% with average odds of (+145) – giving them an extraordinary $2,530 profit for a terrific 9.7% ROI. Better than the stock market, baby!
Home underdogs are 52.7% on the moneyline with odds of (+119). This is the best ROI you can achieve based purely on home/road splits – at 14.3%.
Home dogs are also profitable on the runline – winning 60.2% at (-142) for a meager 3.1% ROI.
The runline is a different story. Betting home team runlines in the MLB playoffs is one of the hottest money-making trends over the past decade.
Road Teams on the Moneyline and Runline
| Season | ML % | Avg ML | ML Profit | RL % | Avg RL | RL Profit |
| 2021 | 39.5% | +126 | -$507 | 51.4% | -150 | -$723 |
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 54.1% | +119 | $490 | 62.2% | -132 | $600 |
| 2018 | 48.5% | +128 | $198 | 57.6% | -133 | $230 |
| 2017 | 28.9% | +126 | -$1,534 | 34.2% | -143 | -$2,245 |
| 2016 | 51.4% | +115 | $324 | 51.4% | -121 | -$367 |
| 2015 | 47.2% | +118 | -$27 | 48.6% | -134 | -$707 |
| 2014 | 43.8% | +119 | -$23 | 59.4% | -140 | $177 |
| 2013 | 39.5% | +110 | -$786 | 39.5% | -128 | -$1,552 |
| 2012 | 51.4% | +119 | $461 | 56.8% | -145 | -$201 |
| 2011 | 39.5% | +126 | -$507 | 51.4% | -150 | -$723 |
| Total | 44.1% | +119 | -$2,338 | 50.8% | -137 | -$5,658 |
Road favorites have been money pits over the past 10 years – costing bettors $1,748 on the moneyline and $879 on the runline with sub-50% win rates for each.
Road dogs break even on the moneyline – posting a win rate of 42.7% with odds of (+138). Road dog runlines are not a sharp play, however, winning about 56% of the plays with short average odds of (-161) for an ROI approaching -10%.
MLB Playoffs: Favorites vs Underdogs
This first table displays how favorites have fared both on the moneyline and the runline over the past 10 MLB postseasons – excluding 2020, of course.
| Season | ML % | Avg ML | ML Profit | RL % | Avg RL | RL Profit |
| 2021 | 55.6% | -138 | -$186 | 47.2% | +131 | $465 |
| 2020 | —- | —- | –– | —- | —- | —- |
| 2019 | 56.8% | -163 | -$298 | 48.6% | +126 | $250 |
| 2018 | 51.5% | -151 | -$571 | 36.4% | +131 | -$580 |
| 2017 | 69.4% | -148 | $1,097 | 63.9% | +125 | $1,725 |
| 2016 | 60.0% | -147 | $150 | 37.1% | +140 | -$302 |
| 2015 | 51.4% | -145 | -$636 | 48.6% | +145 | $642 |
| 2014 | 43.8% | -137 | -$1,191 | 28.1% | +152 | -$865 |
| 2013 | 55.9% | -133 | $16 | 44.1% | +156 | $468 |
| 2012 | 41.7% | -141 | -$1,415 | 36.1% | +142 | -$386 |
| 2011 | 60.0% | -143 | $97 | 41.2% | +150 | $89 |
| Total | 54.9% | -145 | -$2,837 | 43.6% | +139 | $1,651 |
Although it may appear runlines are profitable for favored teams, all of the RL profit over the past decade came from one postseason – 2017. There is not enough consistency to call blindly betting favorites a profitable system.
Underdogs on the Moneyline and Runline
This table shows the moneyline and runline results for underdogs over the past 10 MLB postseasons.
| Season | ML % | Avg ML | ML Profit | RL % | Avg RL | RL Profit |
| 2021 | 46.9% | +126 | $173 | 56.2% | -154 | -$400 |
| 2020 | —- | —- | –– | —- | —- | —- |
| 2019 | 43.2% | +149 | $96 | 51.4% | -146 | -$550 |
| 2018 | 48.5% | +140 | $408 | 63.6% | -151 | $370 |
| 2017 | 30.6% | +136 | -$1,203 | 36.1% | -146 | -$2,125 |
| 2016 | 40.0% | +136 | -$301 | 62.9% | -153 | $89 |
| 2015 | 48.6% | +134 | $444 | 51.4% | -157 | -$864 |
| 2014 | 56.2% | +127 | $992 | 71.9% | -166 | $699 |
| 2013 | 44.1% | +123 | -$163 | 55.9% | -169 | -$678 |
| 2012 | 58.3% | +130 | $1,188 | 63.9% | -158 | $194 |
| 2011 | 40.0% | +133 | -$242 | 60.6% | -160 | -$93 |
| Total | 45.4% | +133 | $1,292 | 57.0% | -156 | -$3,515 |
Postseason underdogs have not been great lately on the moneyline in the MLB postseason and are downright awful on the runline.
MLB Playoffs: Betting the Over/Under Run Total
Runlines and moneylines are not the only way to make money betting playoff baseball. The run total can also be a lucrative bet. The largest incentive for betting the total in lieu of the runline/moneyline is not having to pick who will win the game. With totals, you simply predict how the game will flow, which is easier for some to predict than winners and losers.
The following table shows how often the over and under have hit over the past 10 MLB postseasons – 2020 excluded because it’s so different.
| Postseason | Over % | Over Profit | Under % | Under Profit | Avg Total |
| 2021 | 54.3% | $120 | 45.7% | -$465 | 8.2 |
| 2020 | —- | —- | —- | —- | —- |
| 2019 | 52.8% | -$6 | 47.2% | -$365 | 7.8 |
| 2018 | 45.2% | -$411 | 54.8% | $225 | 7.9 |
| 2017 | 48.6% | -$276 | 51.4% | -$50 | 7.8 |
| 2016 | 42.4% | -$753 | 57.6% | $360 | 7.4 |
| 2015 | 61.8% | $688 | 38.2% | -$1,046 | 7.3 |
| 2014 | 50.0% | -$130 | 50.0% | -$135 | 6.9 |
| 2013 | 57.1% | $340 | 42.9% | -$545 | 6.9 |
| 2012 | 52.8% | $100 | 47.2% | -$480 | 7.3 |
| 2011 | 58.8% | $465 | 41.2% | -$815 | 8.1 |
| Total | 52.3% | $137 | 47.7% | -$3,241 | 7.6 |
Although overs hit slightly above the magic number of 52.4%, the books are well into their long-term adjustment of the odds. Note that the totals early in the 2010s sat in the high 6s and low 7s.
Today’s postseason run totals are right around 8. Vegas is adjusting to the higher-scoring nature of the game. There is no longer an advantage to be gained just from betting the total blindly.
Adding extra parameters to the search does yield some useful total-betting data. Games in which the home team is favored tend to produce more overs while games in which the home team is the dog go under.
Remember, the books are attempting to adjust to eliminate our edge. Make sure the line is not inflated if planning to bet overs. Smashing unders in games where the road team is favored is the ideal totals play of the 2022 MLB Postseason.
MLB Playoffs: Team-By-Team Records
Some MLB teams always seem to win in the playoffs while others whither in the limelight and disappoint on an annual basis. Identifying and distinguishing these teams from one another will spell major profits when betting the MLB playoffs.
This table contains data for each MLB team that is still in the playoff hunt.
MLB Playoffs: Team-By-Team HOME Records
I want to identify the teams with a strong home-field advantage. Certain clubs are deadly in front of their home crowds, especially in the postseason.
Home-field advantages did not exist during the 2020 MLB playoffs so this season will be excluded from the data.
MLB Playoffs – Games After Blowing Lead
This next system has been bleeding bookies dry since 2011. Teams who blew a lead in a playoff game and lost are likely to come back the next game determined to get a win.
Take a look at what teams have done in playoff games after blowing a lead they held for at least 5 innings and losing the game prior:
| Postseason | ML Record | ML Profit |
| 2021 | 1-1 | -$21 |
| 2020 | — | — |
| 2019 | 3-2 | $115 |
| 2018 | — | — |
| 2017 | 1-0 | $100 |
| 2016 | 1-0 | $100 |
| 2015 | 2-1 | $57 |
| 2014 | 1-0 | $120 |
| 2013 | 0-1 | -$135 |
| 2012 | 2-0 | $200 |
| 2011 | 3-0 | $370 |
| Total | 14-5 | $906 |
The sample size is small, but that sample has produced amazing results – going 14-5 (73.7%) with a staggering 37.6% ROI since 2011.
MLB Playoffs – Home Teams in Games 6 & 7
To the average fan, high-pressure games late in a series can be seemingly unpredictable. Sharp bettors realize that strong trends exist in these games which can be capitalized on. While others are betting with their hearts, we know better and make picks with our brains.
First, here is a breakdown of results obtained from betting the home team in each Game 6 over the past 10 postseasons (excluding the weird 2020 year).
| Postseason | ML Record | ML Profit |
| 2021 | 2-1 | $105 |
| 2020 | — | — |
| 2019 | 1-1 | -$75 |
| 2018 | 1-0 | $100 |
| 2017 | 2-0 | $200 |
| 2016 | 1-1 | $18 |
| 2015 | 1-0 | $125 |
| 2014 | 1-0 | $100 |
| 2013 | 3-0 | $317 |
| 2012 | 1-0 | $100 |
| 2011 | 2-1 | $73 |
| Total | 15-4 | $1,063 |
This is very good! Home teams haven’t had a losing record in Game 6s since 2008 in which they went 0-1.
The next logical place to look for trends is home teams in Game 7s. There are fewer of these, so the sample size is even smaller.
| Postseason | ML Record | ML Profit |
| 2021 | — | — |
| 2020 | — | — |
| 2019 | 0-1 | -$135 |
| 2018 | 0-1 | -$100 |
| 2017 | 2-1 | $75 |
| 2016 | 0-1 | -$100 |
| 2015 | — | — |
| 2014 | 0-1 | -$140 |
| 2013 | — | — |
| 2012 | 1-0 | $100 |
| 2011 | 1-0 | $100 |
| Total | 4-5 | -$200 |
While the oddsmakers appear to handicap Game 7s accurately – let’s not forget that you can’t get to Game 7 without a Game 6 … and we have a great system for Game 6s!
Keep your wits about you in the MLB Playoffs. Stick with the data and you’ll rarely misstep. Have fun this October, boppers!
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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