UFC on FOX 31 Betting Guide: Kevin Lee vs. Al Iaquinta

The UFC will say their goodbyes to FOX after this weekend’s UFC on FOX event and roll their luggage into the rooms of ESPN, where they’ll be sleeping over for the next five years.

That’s right – we’re just weeks away from the first of the UFC’s 30 yearly events hitting our screens.

With this deal signed and confirmed all the way back in May, we wouldn’t have been surprised to see the UFC give little love to the remaining UFC on FOX cards.

But that’s not what happened.

Instead, the UFC have loaded up UFC on FOX 31 – the last of its kind – with a bunch of fantastic fights to stimulate our senses once more.

And as always, we’re here to break down the fight card to bring you unrivaled betting selections.

Here’s the lineup as it stands:

Main Card

• Kevin Lee vs. Al Iaquinta (🔥 💰)
• Edson Barboza vs. Dan Hooker (🔥 💰)
• Rob Font vs. Sergio Pettis
• Jim Miller vs. Charles Oliveira (🔥)

Let’s get started.

Kevin Lee vs. Al Iaquinta

Once regarded as just another outspoken wrestler in the UFC’s lightweight division, Kevin Lee has surged through the rankings to find himself in position as a top contender. Many believe Lee to be one of few who can defeat the unbeaten champion, Khabib Nurmagomedov. To get a shot at the man who wrestles bears and the lightweight title, the 26-year-old will first need to defeat Al Iaquinta.

It’s strange knowing that there are many people out there in the world who know “Ragin'” Al Iaquinta only as a real estate broker and not a top-15 ranked mixed martial artist in one of the most stacked divisions of all. In his last fight, Iaquinta was gifted the opportunity to stand toe-to-toe with Nurmagomedov for five rounds. Like all others before him, though, Iaquinta was put on his back for minutes at a time and outworked for a unanimous decision victory. And just like that, Iaquinta’s impressive five-fight winning streak came to an end.

And now it’s time for a dance with an old enemy.

#EXCLUSIVE: Kevin Lee (@MoTownPhenom) says he plans to 'shock' fans after 25-minute war with Al Iaquinta #UFCMilwaukee (via @photoamy33)

READ: https://t.co/euyAuuoTyW pic.twitter.com/cKPTol12BB

— Amy Kaplan (@PhotoAmy33) December 12, 2018

Best Odds For Kevin Lee vs. Al Iaquinta

• Kevin Lee: -284 (Pinnacle)
• Al Iaquinta: +257 (SportBet)

Although it was Iaquinta who came out on top the first time these two met way back in February 2014, it’s Lee who is heavily favored by the bookmakers in this contest.

On that day, Iaquinta managed to floor Lee with a stiff left hand early in the first round before working him over on the feet for rounds one and three for a unanimous decision win. It wasn’t an easy victory for the fighter from Long Island as he had his back taken by Lee during the second round and was unable to shake a tight body triangle. Iaquinta needed to fight off countless rear-naked choke attempts from this position but managed to survive the round and eventually go on and win the contest.

What’s different now?

Quite a lot has changed since then.

That defeat and first-ever loss was also Lee’s debut appearance inside the UFC’s Octagon. He was a 21-year-old undefeated fighter who, despite losing, looked remarkably composed and comfortable inside the cage; he just couldn’t get across the line in a hard-fought contest.

Lee then managed to win nine of his next ten bouts and would earn a shot at highly-ranked Tony Ferguson late last year after three consecutive rear-naked choke finishes. Despite a brilliant opening round that saw him secure top position and rain down some heavy ground and pound on his opponent, Lee was eventually overrun by Ferguson’s endless cardio. He’s since rebounded with a masterful performance against stand-up fighter Edson Barboza to find himself back in the running in the lightweight division.

Iaquinta, on the other hand, has been involved in a bizarre feud with the UFC over many years now. His troubles with the promotion are well documented, but mostly he’s been asking for more money to fight. He got his wish when he was asked to take on Nurmagomedov on short notice at UFC 223, but we’re not sure where Iaquinta currently stands.

Iaquinta’s Determination

If the Nurmagomedov fight proved anything at all, it’s that Iaquinta has an intense level of determination inside the cage. Despite being beaten up by the Russian’s jab all night long, Iaquinta continued moving forward into danger with the plan to land his heavy hands. That strategy didn’t prevail.

On the mat, Iaquinta survived from an onslaught of ground and pound and submission attempts to eventually gain the respect of fans, even in defeat. Nurmagomedov had trouble taking Iaquinta down to the mat and failed on many single-leg attempts to do so.

Lee’s takedown game is significantly different to that of Nurmagomedov’s, and we are expecting multiple successful takedowns from the wrestling-focused fighter. But what can he do with them that Nurmagomedov couldn’t?

Yes, Lee is an excellent back-taker, and we saw this in his first fight with Iaquinta, but the Matt Serra trained fighter has shown an ability to defend the choke from this position and at the least manage to remain competitive once escaping.

With Lee holding a significant advantage across many areas of this fight, we agree with the current line and find it hard to side with either fighter.

Fortunately, there is terrific value to be enjoyed when betting on Kevin Lee to win by decision, which is currently sitting at +298 with SportBet.

Considering that Lee wants to school Iaquinta for 25 minutes and that Iaquinta is defensively sound, we could be seeing the scorecards.

Bet on Kevin Lee to win by decision: +298 at SportBet

Edson Barboza vs. Dan Hooker

Also on the card is a brilliant lightweight fight between fast-rising Dan Hooker and ultra-devastating striker, Edson Barboza.

Hooker has been fantastic since moving up to the 155-pound division and has secured four consecutive stoppage victories. That’s quite a feat for the former featherweight (145-pound) mixed martial artist who had struggled to get going in that category.

He’ll be facing Barboza, who is undoubtedly Hooker’s toughest test to date. A dangerous striker, Barboza has an unparalleled collection of highlight-reel worthy knockout finishes during his time with the UFC. More than just a flashy fighter, though, Barboza kicks with incredible force and speed and is capable of crushing opponents with his hands, as well.

Best Odds For Edson Barboza vs. Dan Hooker

• Edson Barboza: +100 (William Hill)
• Dan Hooker: -102 (SportBet)

The Dan Hooker hype is real.

Now listed as a slight favorite on most sites, Hooker is favored by the bookmakers and most of the public.

If Hooker manages a win over Barboza, his winning streak will extend to five. We’re on board with the Hooker hype-train and believe he’s a legitimate contender in the division, but this fight represents a superb betting opportunity.

Last week, our most confident play was to take Max Holloway to win as an underdog. We’re going to be backing Barboza with that same level of confidence in this fight for several reasons.

World-Class Striking

Training at City Kickboxing with the likes of Israel Adesanya and other highly-skilled strikers, Dan Hooker has certainly come along way as a mixed martial artist over the years. Arguably his most significant improvement is his ability to win fights while standing, but not by decision. Hooker has stopping power in his hands (as he showcased against Gilbert Burns with a perfectly placed left hook to the chin) and is skilled at using all of his limbs to inflict pain.

But as good as Hooker is, he’s not nearly as good as Edson Barboza while on the feet.

Barboza has terrifyingly accurate and damaging leg kicks up his sleeve at all times but manages to disguise them because of his endless list of other weapons. A speedy check left hook (like he best used against Anthony Pettis many years ago) is exactly the type of strike that can disrupt a Hooker forward blitz.

And once Hooker starts to worry about the leg kicks, it opens up the strikes to the body and head.

Admittedly, however, Hooker excels at defending strikes and will likely keep out of danger for the most part. It’s just that we can’t see him landing much in return.

Underrated Grappling

Hooker’s general strategy is to stay standing long enough that his opponent almost forgets about the takedown threat, and then he locks his hands around his opponent and drags them to the mat. This worked against Marc Diakiese recently, and he has utilized this technique against many others to disrupt the flow of the fight and threaten with his excellent submission technique.

The problem for Hooker in this fight is that Barboza is a confusingly underrated grappler. Most have forgotten that part of his game considering his last two fighters were against elite wrestlers in Nurmagomedov and Lee, but Barboza has always known how to keep the fight upright and uses his fantastic scrambling ability to move back to striking if it ever gets to that stage.

With 80% takedown defense through his many years in the UFC (and after fights with Nurmagomedov and Lee), Barboza is a tough man to take down.

Hooker Can’t Win Decisions

And that leaves us with just the one question. If Hooker is outmatched on the feet and is likely unable to take his opponent down, does he have the ability to win a decision?

Not really.

Because of his patient and calculated approach to striking, Hooker isn’t necessarily the best round-winner. Barboza isn’t either, but Hooker is without one of the clearest paths to victory in this contest.

Unbelievably, Hooker has only one decision win in his 24-fight career to date, and that came all the way back in 2011. He’s yet to win a decision in the UFC and hasn’t shown an ability to win rounds.

All three of Hooker’s decision defeats were via decision, and that’s the way we see this co-main event playing out in Milwaukee this weekend.

Because the odds are so generous for Edson Barboza to win anyway, we’re going to boost our chances by taking the straight odds of -105 with Pinnacle.

Bet on Edson Barboza to win: +100 at William Hill

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That’s all for this week!

Make sure to swing back around for our best picks and plays for UFC 232 on Saturday, December 29.