UFC Fight Night 151 Betting Guide

WagerBop returns just in time for UFC Fight Night 151 on Saturday, May 4. The event will take place in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, and features a handful of brilliant matchups and a fight card with 11 fights in total.

If you’re a regular reader, you know what’s to come. We will break down some of the major bouts that are set to take place at UFC Ottawa and share our analysis and predictions to form the best betting opportunities.

We’re already sitting at +10 units of profit from UFC events in 2019 and are well on track to make this a +20 unit from mixed martial arts betting this year.

We’ll start with the fascinating lightweight main event bout that will see Al Iaquinta take on Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in a five-round war before moving on to Cub Swanson vs. Shane Burgos.

Al Iaquinta vs. Donald Cerrone

Al Iaquinta

Al Iaquinta is one of the strangest cases in the UFC. Inactive for over two years from 2015 – 2017, Iaquinta returned to the cage and knocked out Diego Sanchez in just 98 seconds. It’s almost as if Iaquinta doesn’t have to fight. With a career in real estate and other pursuits outside of mixed martial arts, Iaquinta doesn’t seem to rely on the cash he earns from fighting like others in the sport do.

However, it seems as if he has a renewed interest in competing after he took current lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov to the end of five rounds in April last year. Iaquinta took that fight on short notice and had pretty much just one day to prepare for one of the most feared athletes in the sport. But Iaquinta proved to be a somewhat surprising challenge for Nurmagomedov and that effort has inspired greater confidence in Iaquinta and a motivation to return to the top to have another crack at the champion.

Iaquinta believes that if anyone can beat Nurmagomedov, it’s him. First, he needs to defeat Donald Cerrone.

Donald Cerrone

If you know of Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, there’s a fair chance that you’re a huge fan of the way this guy operates. A natural fighter, “Cowboy” became a fan-favorite many years ago and remains a highly-regarded contender in the UFC. With a record of 35-11 in his mixed martial arts career, fans, coaches and fighters are well aware of the tendencies, tactics, and strategies of Cerrone. However, as many young, up-and-coming fighters attempt to storm past the veteran of the sport, “Cowboy” has put his foot down and held his position as a fighter to be respected.

His most recent fight may be the best example of this. The surging Alexander Hernandez earned a bout with Cerrone and planned on overwhelming him. However, it took less than two rounds for Cerrone to end Hernandez’s night and send him packing. We’ll break down how that one went down later in this article.

Right now, Cerrone’s won three of his last four bouts and is attempting to make it three in a row with a win over Al Iaquinta. While Iaquinta is certainly not the money fight that Donald Cerrone vs. Conor McGregor may have been, it’s still a great fight.

Al Iaquinta vs. Donald Cerrone Odds

Iaquinta vs. Cerrone breakdown

Most of this breakdown revolves around Donald Cerrone. We’ve seen him compete inside the Octagon for so long now that we’re all aware of what it takes to move past “Cowboy” and what a fighter shouldn’t do against him.

To start, when given room to operate safely at kicking range, “Cowboy” is about as dangerous as it gets for any lightweight fighter. Cerrone punishes the head and body with kicks and punches, but they’re not just single shots of any kind; he makes an effort to string together these strikes to form effective combinations. If Cerrone is setting the pace, he’s a handful to deal with.

However, when he’s backed up, Cerrone runs out of options and doesn’t have the type of counter striking ability that is necessary to make a stamp on any fight. As fighters became aware of this opportunity against “Cowboy,” we’ve seen them time and time again try to mirror Rafael dos Anjos’ perfect forward pressure to earn an early win. Darren Till did it with precision and speed, too, backing Cerrone up and then ramming straight punches down the middle of Cerrone’s open defense. However, Hernandez proved that fighters need to be careful in the way they attempt to overwhelm Cerrone, as a poorly-timed entry will result in being pierced with one of Cerrone’s often devastating intercepting knees.

Cerrone uses his knees to block and damage people as they move forward into punching range. It’s a brilliant tool and technique that he has added to his arsenal in recent years and slowed Hernandez down completely. However, he’s often too reliant on this one defensive technique. Till was long enough and big enough to hammer Cerrone from a safe distance and not have to be overly concerned about incoming knees.

Iaquinta is at his best when he’s in a boxing fight. At close range, where he can throw his punches, Iaquinta is very dangerous. While he doesn’t really pack incredible power in his punches, his rear-hand has decent enough power that they can change the course of a fight very quickly.

At the medium-to-long ranges, Iaquinta may struggle with Cerrone’s kicking game, but that’s only once Cerrone settles into the fight. A traditionally slow starter, Cerrone is most vulnerable in the opening minutes of a bout and Iaquinta will certainly be aware of that.

Expect Iaquinta to heap pressure on Cerrone early, but not so much that he’s running carelessly into those knees of Cerrone. Measured forward pressure together with cage cutting might be the key to victory in this one and Iaquinta has the fighting intelligence to employ such a plan. That together with his defense submission defense (if it ever makes it that far), makes Iaquinta a great value play at UFC Fight Night 151.

Bet on Al Iaquinta to win: -115 at Pinnacle

Cub Swanson vs. Shane Burgos

Cub Swanson vs. Shane Burgos is a fight that won’t get lots of media attention beforehand, but it’s one that true mixed martial arts fans will have confidence in delivering tons of excitement.

Cub Swanson

Swanson’s on a three-fight losing streak, and while it’s easy to jump to conclusions from that statement alone, it’s first essential to consider the quality of opponent that he has been up against. Swanson was submitted by Brian Ortega before then losing to Frankie Edgar. He had an opportunity to bounce back against Renato Moicano but wasn’t able to move past the talented Brazilian fighter.

These losses indicate more of Swanson’s inability to defeat high-ranked competitors in the division right now more so than any noticeable decline in his ability or skillset.

Shane Burgos

“Hurricane” Shane Burgos lives up to his moniker when he’s inside the cage competing. Now 4-1 in the UFC after five fights, Burgos has impressed fans with his relentless pressure and high-pace in every fight. Burgos is built for excitement and is concentrated on knocking his opponent out every time. There’s no doubting that Cub Swanson represents what may be the greatest test in his career so far, and in saying that, it’s somewhat of a surprise to see him listed as a moderate betting favorite.

Cub Swanson vs. Shane Burgos Odds

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