UFC Fight Night 148 Betting Guide: Stephen Thompson vs. Anthony Pettis

The UFC’s event in Nashville, Tennessee, this weekend is probably the worst of all in the promotion’s nine-week run of events, but it’s still worth watching. If anything, that speaks volumes to the quality of the world’s leading mixed martial arts promotion, and how they have managed to include a handful of fighters worth watching in this event.

The headline bout is an unexpected welterweight clash between Stephen Thomspon vs. Anthony Pettis, which is sure to be one of the best fights of the entire weekend. Also on the card, a brilliant flyweight showdown between Jussier Formiga and Deiveson Figueiredo will take place, as well as the returning Maycee Barber, who Dana White considers to be one of the best up-and-coming talents in the UFC today.

If you’re new here, you’re joining us at a brilliant time. We’ve provided UFC betting tips for seven events in 2019 and have profited from every event so far. We picked Darren Till vs. Jorge Masvidal to end inside the distance, as well as Leon Edwards to win last weekend, bumping our overall profit for 2019 to 10.63 units.

Now that you’re up to speed, let’s move forward and uncover the betting value for this event.

Stephen Thompson vs. Anthony Pettis

UFC fans are by now well aware that the promotion tends to make seemingly meaningless fights between stars for no good reason. Here’s a classic example of that, as former UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis moves up a division to face Stephen Thompson in a five-round main event that no one saw coming.

Stephen Thompson

Thompson has remained as one of the top contenders in the welterweight division for the last three years. His major win over Roy MacDonald threw him into the spotlight, where he would go on to challenge Tyron Woodley for the title. A fascinating fight that ended in a majority draw led Thompson to an immediate rematch with Woodley, where this time he would lose a competitive majority decision.

Since then, Masvidal bounced back with a unanimous decision victory against Jorge Masvidal – who was victorious on the weekend – before losing to Darren Till in a five-round main event in May last year. The Till scorecard (49-46, 49-46, 48-47) was controversial, and 67.7% of fans who scored the bout on MMA Decisions had it in Thompson’s favor. Even more shocking was that 22 of 25 MMA media members who submitted scores had Thompson as a winner, with many of them believing he won 49-46.

One takeaway is that despite just the one win in his last four fights, he has remained extremely competitive (if not having won) all fights. This has been the case for the length of Wonderboy’s career, considering that no opponent has ever stopped him inside the distance.

Anthony Pettis

This matchup with Thompson isn’t necessarily a step-up in competition for Anthony Pettis, who is coming off a fight with Tony Ferguson, who is regarded as one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC. Pettis looked decent at times during the fight but couldn’t hang in there with Ferguson as the fight moved past the first round. By the end of the second round, Pettis had broken his hand and didn’t make his walk back out for the third and final round.

Losing to Ferguson was Pettis’ sixth defeat in his last nine fights, and while each of his wins came against low-ranked fighters such as Michael Chiesa, Charles Oliveira, and Jim Miller, his six defeats were against some of the very best fighters to have competed in the lightweight division.

When the UFC offered Pettis a bunch of names for his next fight, Pettis says that “Wonderboy” stood out. In a UFC Nashville preview video, Pettis explains that his extra motivation heading into this 170-pound contest.

“I know that 170 is my first time going there, he’s #4 in the world, but it just makes it that much more interesting for me. I’ll be fighting one of the guys who are the best in the world in a new weight class, and that’s going to tell me a lot about where my skills are really at.”

Stephen Thompson vs. Anthony Pettis Odds

Breaking down Thompson vs. Pettis

Thompson vs. Pettis is an intriguing matchup between two fascinating strikers.

Pettis is remembered for his amazing “Showtime Kick” that he landed against Benson Henderson in 2010, and is a technique so good that the UFC rated it as the “best finish” ahead of this weekend’s card despite the fact it wasn’t a finish. Make sense of that.

Thompson has had his fair share of exciting knockouts, as well, and one that comes to mind is his spinning hook kick stoppage against Jake Ellenberger in 2015.

Thompson is a brilliant outfighter who expertly manages distance and picks apart his opponent with stabbing kicks and straight punches. But he’s not a great boxer and has plenty of limitations when the fight is contested at closer ranges.

One of the greatest opportunities for any fighter against “Wonderboy” is to pressure him and close the distance. Once there, fighters have been able to outwork him on the inside and find his chin with ease. Of course, closing the distance against Thompson is an insanely difficult task and takes masterful pressuring skills to do so.

Pettis doesn’t really have those skills.

In fact, if he could have it his way in fights, Pettis would be the one sticking back out of range while peppering his opponent with powerful kicks to the legs, body, and head.

So, if Pettis is unlikely to pressure well, does he stand a chance at long range? A small one. Thompson has had his lead leg beaten up by opponent’s in the past, and this is a way forward for Pettis in this main event. Outside of that, there’s not a lot else. Thompson is unbelievably patient and rarely puts himself in a position of danger. Another way for Pettis to win is to get Thompson on the mat, but that’s an unlikely outcome, as well.

Official statistics back up our analysis, as well, showing that Thomspon lands 3.45 significant strikes per minute vs. Pettis’ 2.85. Likewise, Thompson absorbs less significant strikes (2.51) than Pettis (3.16) per minute.

This is shaping up to be a Stephen Thompson win via unanimous decision, and we’re going to cash in on the “Fight goes the distance” prop.

Bet on Fight Goes to Decision: -110 at 5Dimes