UFC Fight Night 138: Volkan Oezdemir vs. Anthony Smith Preview and Betting Guide

We hope you’ve had enough time to recover from your post-UFC 229 emotional hangover because we’re now strapped in and ready to embrace the UFC’s relentless week-after-week pace for the rest of 2018.

It all starts this weekend with UFC Fight Night 138, which takes place in Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada, on Saturday night.

While the entire event doesn’t fall under the ‘don’t miss’ umbrella, if you know a little about Volkan Oezdemir and Anthony Smith, that fight, in particular, is definitely one you don’t want to miss.

These guys are known for knocking people out. Fast.

And if you didn’t already know, the UFC’s official poster certainly rubs it in your face.

Join us as we break down this exciting main event clash using the same MMA betting strategy that has helped us to secure big wins for WagerBop readers in the last two months.

Readers who tailed our Bellator 208 tips cashed in after we hit on all four plays, including two underdog bets.

But that’s enough bragging, let’s get started.

Volkan Oezdemir vs. Anthony Smith

UFC Fight Night 138 Main Event
Saturday, October 28
Main card starts at 10:00 pm (ET) / 7:00 pm (PT)

It might not seem like it because we’re coming off the largest and most significant event in UFC history, but the UFC could be struggling to put together decent fight cards if it wasn’t for breakout fighters such as Volkan Oezdemir, Anthony Smith, and in a few weeks, Santiago Ponzinibbio.

Oezdemir (15-2) and Smith (30-13) have proven the immense opportunities that come with a string of success in the UFC, both successfully skyrocketing to near the top of the light heavyweight division.

Smith isn’t there yet, of course, but a win over #2 ranked Oezdemir could see him shoot up the rankings and sit alongside Jan Blachowicz and Ilir Latifi. Especially considering that Oezdemir is now a former title challenger (as strange as that sounds) and has registered impressively fast knockout victories over talents such as Jimi Manuwa and Misha Cirkunov.

That’d be quite a success story for Smith after going 4-2 as a middleweight and only recently making the jump up to the UFC’s 205-pound category.

Volkan Oezdemir vs. Anthony Smith Betting Odds

• Volkan Oezdemir: -175 (William Hill)
• Anthony Smith: +174 (SportBet)

Initially released at odds of -210, Volkan Oezdemir was then brought all the way back into -158 in August. Now, however, he sits as a comfortable betting favorite at odds of -175 with William Hill.

Interestingly, Volkan Oezdemir has never entered a UFC fight as the betting favorite. The lowest we have ever seen Oezdemir before was +140 before the Jimi Manuwa fight. Now, he’s the comfortable betting favorite before UFC Fight Night 138 and can be found at odds of -175 with William Hill.

If you’re looking to bet on Anthony Smith’s side in this main event, it might be best to wait a little longer. The gap between the two fighters continues to widen as we approach fight night and there’s a chance that Anthony Smith reaches +180 on most sportsbooks.

Volkan Oezdemir

Despite earning a title shot against the greatest pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC today, Volkan Oezdemir is one of the most curious cases in all of the UFC right now.

Seemingly blessed with raw knockout power, Oezdemir pushed past the rest of the light heavyweight division by knocking out Misha Cirkunov in 28 seconds and then finishing Jimi Manuwa in 22 seconds.

Those two victories were not long after a split decision victory in a short-notice bout against Ovince Saint Preux in February 2017.

Here’s what you need to know about Oezdemir:

• 11 first-round KO/TKO victories in only 17 fights
• Lands more significant strikes per minute (5.91) than anyone in the light heavyweight division with five or more fights (*Volkan only has four fights in the UFC)
• Absorbs 5.14 significant strikes per minute

Anthony Smith

With excellent Muay Thai striking and an outstanding level of ‘grittiness,’ Smith has won five of his last six bouts and is undefeated as a light heavyweight since joining the ranks in June this year.

You’ll remember his devastating knee that finished Rashad Evans inside the first minute at UFC 225. And if you’re a Mauricio Rua fan, you’re not going to want to recall the KO/TKO finish that occurred just 1:29 into the first round.

Here’s what you need to know Anthony Smith:

• Rarely sees the scorecards and has only made it the distance three times in his 43-fight professional career
• Finished 17 fights inside the first round
• Secured 10 submission victories
• Noticeably poor striking defense % (46%)
• Lands 3.45 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.97

Fight Breakdown

Bettors will likely fall on either side of this main event depending on whether they believe Volkan Oezdemier’s power to be genuine.

We know that seems like a foolish thing to question, but the way that Cirkunov and Manuwa went stumbling after being struck by Oezdemir made it look like he has supernatural strength. While we don’t think “that” is the case, he definitely hits hard and that’s proven by his high first-round KO/TKO finishing rate.

And if you don’t believe in Oezdemir’s power, you’ll be siding with could be considered the technically supreme of the two fighters, Anthony Smith. While Oezdemir’s technique looks ordinary at best (but the power is real), Smith has excellent striking techniques at all ranges, and we’re particularly fascinated by his slicing elbows and crushing knees.

Although Oezdemir’s statistics show that he absorbs more damage than Smith, that doesn’t necessarily indicate that Smith is better defensively. That couldn’t be further from the truth as Smith’s greatest downfall is that he is clipped by a high percentage of his opponent’s strikes – mostly because he is ready to give one straight back.

Oezdemir’s strikes absorbed points more towards the ferocious pace that he sets in every fight. Moving forward and throwing all of his shots with power, Oezdemir hopes to overrun his opponent in the early stages. He tried this against the champ-champ, Cormier, but failed to get him out of there and was eventually defeated via rear-naked choke.

It does seem like Oezdemier’s best chances will be in the early stages of the fight. And this is especially the case considering that Smith is a habitually slow starter and usually takes a couple of minutes (or even the entire round) to work through the gears.

Could we see this one making it to the mat? Maybe if the fight lasts longer than expected (that’d be third, fourth, and fifth rounds). If Volkan is having success on the feet, his particularly decent scrambling ability will likely see him return upright. Otherwise, he might look to try and test Smith’s ability on the mat, which could prove dangerous.

There’s no evidence to suggest other than that Volkan Oezdemir’s best chance to win is early in this fight. And right now, there’s excellent value for those who are willing to bet on him to secure the victory in the first round.

That’s what we’re doing.

Bet on Volkan Oezdemir to win in Round 1

Odds: +275 (Bet365)