UFC Fight Night 136 Betting Guide

The UFC is set to travel to Russia for the first time this weekend with a fight card that features plenty of up-and-coming Russian talent and a collection of established fighters.

Uncharacteristically for an overseas UFC event, UFC Fight Night 136 doesn’t pack much of a punch for potential bettors. We’ll be focusing on the main and co-main event, where we have found incredible value for punters this weekend.

Where: Olympic Stadium, Moscow, Russia
When: Saturday, September 15 (2:00pm ET, 11:00am PT)

Mark Hunt vs. Aleksei Oleinik

If there were ever proof that heavyweight fighters have a longer shelf life than others in smaller divisions, it would be the combined age of 44-year-old Mark Hunt and 41-year-old Aleksei Oleinik, who are scheduled to clash in the main event in Moscow, Russia, this Saturday.

• Mark Hunt: -166
• Aleksei Oleinik: +153

Hunt, who is an accomplished kickboxer, will be fighting to keep his professional mixed martial arts career above .500 this weekend. With 13 wins and 12 defeats to his name, Hunt has certainly experienced mixed results during his time with PRIDE, Dream, and now the UFC. However, a fighting record doesn’t always tell the full story, and a closer inspection reveals that Hunt’s only defeats in the last seven years were against high-level competition including Stipe Miocic, Alistair Overeem, Fabricio Werdum, Junior Dos Santos, and most recently, Curtis Blaydes.

The much-loved striker from New Zealand continues to be marketed as a walk-off KO specialist after a handful of stunning knockouts. Hunt deserves more credit than to merely considered as a one-punch kind of fighter, and should be respected for his exceptional ability to control the distance and tempo of a fight while standing. Hunt’s patient approach in the opening round might look as if he is hesitant to throw his hands in the first minute or two, as he calmly slides his feet and body out of range of danger and decides against answer back with counter strikes early in a fight.

But almost like clockwork, Hunt kicks into gear after a couple of minutes and will gladly launch his powerful arsenal of strikes upon an unsuspecting opponent. Most recently, Hunt did this to Blaydes, who had almost been lulled into a false sense of security before Hunt crushed him with a series of devastating and accurate punches. It looked as if Hunt was about to finish the younger challenger, but Blaydes instinctively changed levels and removed himself from danger by taking Hunt to the mat.

And that’s the one place he’s going to need to avoid against Aleksei Oleinik at UFC Fight Night 136.

With 46 submissions to his name, Oleinik might be pound-for-pound one of the most frightening grapplers in the UFC today. The Ukranian heavyweight has managed 56 wins from a 68-fight career that began all the way back in 1996 and is now 5-2 in the UFC since joining the world’s leading mixed martial arts promotion in 2014. Among those wins are four incredible submission victories, and two of those by way of his outstanding Ezekiel choke.

It would be rude not to dedicate a large portion of this preview to Oleinik’s Ezekiel choke, which has caught the eye of UFC fans worldwide. Those familiar with Aleksei Oleinik are not surprised by his vice-like choking ability, but newly introduced spectators are left picking their jaws up from the floor after he unexpectedly forces a tap from an opponent in a seemingly better position. His submission of Viktor Pešta at UFC Fight Night 103 – where he locked up an Ezekiel choke while mounted by Pešta – should be on every Oleinik highlight reel for the rest of time.

But while the submission still draws comparisons to the act of pulling a rabbit out of a hat, it’s important to understand that much of Oleinik’s strategy relies on securing this Ezekiel choke. Even on the occasions in which he hasn’t managed to find a way to finish the submission, Oleinik has attempted to set it up on numerous occasions. One way in particular that he does this is from inside the clinch, much like he controlled the back of Junior Albini’s head and pulled him down to the mat on top of him. It’s a low-percentage move, of course, but it shows that Oleinik typically relies on closing the distance because he doesn’t possess the same explosive double-leg takedown that someone like a Curtis Blaydes does.

Oleinik isn’t all that great at takedowns in general. His attempts in the center of the cage result in next to no penetration and his efforts against the cage usually result in his opponent shrugging off the attempt with ease. To get the fight where he needs it (on the mat), Oleinik lures his opponent into a brawl and begins fatiguing them with constant high-velocity striking with no real technical process behind it whatsoever. Once the two fighters are engaging in a wilder style of fighting, Oleinik can then rely on his pure strength to initiate a takedown attempt, where he’ll aggressively pursue the submission. Sometimes, he’ll even allow the opponent to take him down and gain a dominant position.

So, can Aleskei Oleinik get Mark Hunt to the mat and submit him?

It’s unlikely.

Although your memories might be scarred from watching Mark Hunt trapped underneath Brock Lesnar (4 takedowns) or Curtis Blaydes (10 takedowns) for rounds at a time, the former kickboxer has decent enough takedown defense and has stopped 63% of takedown attempts in the UFC.

It might not even get to that stage, however. If Oleinik’s strategy is to entice Hunt to trade bombs and be drawn away from a technical kickboxing fight, that could be a very dangerous outcome for the Ukranian. Hunt’s hands and feet are no joke, and he has knocked out his opponent in 10 of his 12 career victories to date. And for Hunt, who is a world-class heavyweight striker that has traded with the best in the division, he’ll likely have a field day with Oleinik’s subpar striking defense and reckless attacks.

Look for Hunt to establish a steady pace early before eventually clipping an impatient Oleinik and dropping him to the mat. Fortunately, Hunt isn’t the type to follow his adversary to the ground to finish the job, and he’ll gladly wait for Oleinik to return to his feet before relaunching a destructive combination.

We’re taking Mark Hunt to win at odds of -166 at Pinnacle.

Jan Blachowicz vs. Nikita Krylov

UFC Fight Night 136’s co-main event is a welcomed battle between the rising Jan Blachowicz and the returning Nikita Krylov.

• Jan Blachowicz: +115
• Nikita Krylov: -120

Now on a three-fight winning streak, Blachowicz is enjoying his best stretch of fights in the UFC to date. His recent work has almost erased memories of his efforts through 2015-2017 when he managed to win just one of his five fights in the promotion. Blachowicz claims that his improvement is a result of transitioning back to his former gym, where his prior coach has now enabled him to focus on his strengths rather than ‘changing his style.’

The 35-year-old’s best moments recently have been a result of his heavy hands and well-timed aggression. He carefully avoided the knockout power of Jimi Manuwa at UFC Fight Night 127 while managing to display his punching power by knocking Manuwa down to the mat and almost finishing him. His relatively fast hands and awkward timing were also on display against Alexander Gustafsson for moments during his unanimous decision loss at UFC Fight Night 93 two years ago. Although manhandled by Gustafsson in the later rounds, you could be forgiven for believing Blachowicz had the right tools to upset the Swedish star. And now, for the fourth consecutive fight, Blachowicz will enter this co-main event with Nikita Krylov as a betting underdog.

When Nikita Krylov parted ways with the UFC in 2016, many fans (especially those in the know) were quick to claim that the promotion had made a huge mistake letting the 24-year-old talent slip away. After all, the 205lbs division isn’t exactly jam-packed with great fighters, and Krylov was well on his way to becoming a legitimate threat at the top of the division – even after being defeated by Misha Cirkunov.

Since leaving, Krylov went on a 4-0 stretch and claimed the Fight Nights Global Light Heavyweight Championship while he was at it. Of course, Krylov kept up his finishing ways and has maintained his remarkable record of never making it to the scorecards in his 30-fight career. Interestingly, he’s only ever started the third round once.

Through his 30-fight career, Nikita Krylov has NEVER made it to the scorecards and has started the third round only once. He’s also the all-time leader in the UFC’s LHW division for strikes landed per minute at 6.55 (min. 5 fights, per @FightMetric) #UFCMoscow

— Jake Nichols (@JakeNicholsMMA) September 12, 2018

It might sound cliché, but Krylov’s fighting style is practically to kill or be killed. He looks exceptional when attacking, and is capable of landing mighty kicks and straight punches with force. But, he’s also not the best defensively and has allowed the occasional opponent to connect with the odd punch or two, as well. The Cirkunov example is probably the best one to highlight Krylov’s defensive weaknesses, as he attacked with his back to the cage, and his hands low, and was soon crushed by a punch.

On the outside, Krylov looks like an unbeatable monster with tremendous range and power, but he’s vulnerable on the inside, and that’s where Blachowicz does some of his best work. Blachowicz’s strikes aren’t the most attractive by any means but he is capable of quickly closing the distance and landing a flush series of punches in a matter of milliseconds. That might be all it takes for Blachowicz to score his first KO/TKO victory since 2014…

We’re taking Jan Blachowicz to win at odds of +115 at Pinnacle.

UFC Fight Night 136 Best Bets

• Mark Hunt to win: -166 at Pinnacle
• Jan Blachowicz to win: +115 at Pinnacle

If you haven’t already, make sure to check out our comprehensive guide to betting on the UFC.