UFC 291: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje Preview, Odds, Predictions, Picks

Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje are back in the octagon as the headliner of UFC 291. The two lightweights had already met before, a couple of years back, and the Diamond was better than Gathje, who was the new face in the UFC at the time. The situation is much different at this point, as the Highlight became one of the best fighters in the division and the guy who was already involved in title bouts twice. As for Poirier, he is already a legend of the sport, and just a few guys can compare his legacy with him.

Preview

Dustin Poirier (29-7, -110) has had two defeats since 2017, and both were in title fights, one against Khabib and the other against Charles Oliveira. Both were via rear-naked choke. The Diamond knows that his time window for getting the third opportunity is getting smaller and smaller, and a victory here is a must. 

Poirier recently beat guys like Max Holloway, Dan Hooker, Conor twice, and most recently, Michael Chandler, whom he submitted, also via rear-naked choke. Throughout his career, he was also better than Anthony Pettis, Eddie Alvarez, Gaethje etc.

The combination of his excellent boxing and very solid grappling and wrestling has made him one of the best lightweights on the planet. Besides that, Poirier is very muscular for this decision, and there aren’t too many guys with such a frame among the lightweights. Because of that, he often knows to slow down in the championship rounds, as his cardio can’t carry on all that size.

Justin Gaethje (24-4, +105) was also submitted in both of his title fights, against the same opponents, and the only difference is that he lost to Khabib via triangle choke. The Highlight earned those chances to attack the belt following a pretty dominant streak of victories.

He came to the UFC with a win over Michael Johnson, then suffered two KOs, against Alvarez and Poirier, but after that smashed the next four rivals, all via KO – James Vicks, Edson Barboza, Donald Cerrone, and Tony Ferguson. All of them were via hard left-right punches.

Gaethje has 24 victories, and 19 came via KO. He is probably the hardest hitter in the division and has the biggest output of all the guys involved. We also need to address the mixture of his combos, as he perfectly combines boxing and kickboxing. On the other hand, his wrestling isn’t at the elite level, and he tends to find himself in trouble against the more experienced grapplers. 

Predictions

Gaethje is a much better fighter than when meeting Poirier for the first time, but compared to the Diamond, he is still one-dimensional. Poirier knows he might get hurt in the stand-up, so we expect him to take the bout to the mat at some point. We aren’t underestimating Gaethje’s ground game, but Poirier’s is significantly better, which is the only reason we bet on his victory here. The odds are -110, and that’s completely fine in this case. 

Pick: Poirier wins -110

Here are more UFC 291 previews:

• Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira