The UFC heads Down Under for another pay-per-view event in Australia.
This time, the promotion is heading back to the Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne for UFC 234. The headline bout of the event is a UFC Middleweight Championship fight that sees Robert Whittaker attempt to defend his title on home soil for the first time. He’ll be facing Kelvin Gastelum, who recently managed wins over Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza and Michael Bisping to earn his first-ever shot at UFC gold.
Also on the card is a confusing middleweight matchup between the fast-rising Israel Adesanya and a legend of the game, Anderson Silva. For some strange reason, the promotion thought it’d make sense to pair the 43-year-old Silva against a 29-year-old opponent who has proved to be one of the most highly-skilled and dangerous strikers in the sport today.
Besides the main event and co-main event of UFC 234, there’s not a whole lot else; it really is one of the weakest pay-per-view events of recent memory. But still, we’re here to dive into the depths of the card to find you brilliant betting options so that you can extract value from your favorite bookmaker this weekend.
UFC 234 – Saturday, Feb. 9
Main Card (10:00 pm ET)
- Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum
- Anderson Silva vs. Israel Adesanya
- Rani Yahya vs. Ricky Simon
- Nadia Kassem vs. Montana De La Rosa
- Jim Crute vs. Sam Alvey
Preliminary Card (6:30 pm ET)
- Dong Hyun Ma vs. Devonte Smith
- Austin Arnett vs. Shane Young
- Kai Kara-France vs. Raulian Paiva
- Teruto Ishihara vs. Kyung Ho Kang
- Lando Vannata vs. Marcos Rosa
- Jalin Turner vs. Callan Potter
- Wuliji Buren vs. Jonathan Martinez
Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum is a top-class fight, and arguably one of the best fights the UFC could make right now.
Whittaker is undefeated since 2014 and has compiled nine consecutive victories since that defeat to Stephen Thompson back at UFC 170. To put things in context, that was a pay-per-event that had Ronda Rousey featuring in the main event against Sara McMann – oh, how things have changed.
In late 2014, “The Reaper” moved up to the middleweight division and climbed through the ranks to become the champion. But it’s never been easy for him. His fights have almost always been brutal slugfests. Think of the Derek Brunson fight – the last time Whittaker competed in Melbourne – and you’ll recall Whittaker getting rocked by an intense flurry from his opponent just minutes into the contest. He then battled “Jacare” Souza for two grueling rounds before eventually running into Yoel Romero – who some consider to be the most terrifying fighter in the UFC – twice.
Whittaker competed against Romero in two five-round fights and was injured in both bouts. In the first, he overcame a knee injury to win a unanimous decision. He injured his hand in the second fight, and still managed to score a split decision win. He’s as durable and tough as they come.
And he’s going to need every bit of that durability come this weekend when he faces Kelvin Gastelum, who is equally renowned for being a determined and ferocious fighter.
Gastelum isn’t riding the same kind of impressive win streak that Whittaker has compiled, but he has beaten a former champion of the division, in Michael Bisping, recently, and then defeated the next-best contender for the title, “Jacare” Souza. The Bisping victory was a complete mauling, as Gastelum crushed his opponent in just 2 minutes and 30 seconds in China. The “Jacare” fight was a tough one, but he managed to squeak out a split decision victory.
Here’s how the bookmakers have this one.
Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum Odds
The odds are short on the champion, Robert Whittaker, but there are plenty of reasons to back him in this contest.
Statistically speaking, these two are relatively comparable when it comes to striking. Gastelum edges striking accuracy (43 percent to 40 percent), and absorbs less significant shots per minute (2.87 vs. Whittaker’s 3.65). They’re dead-even in striking defense at 61%, and Whittaker has an advantage when it comes to strikes landed per minute at 4.82 (vs. Gastelum’s 3.86). So, is it fair to say this should be an even battle on the feet?
Absolutely not.
Whittaker’s offensive and defensive striking techniques are vastly better than that of Gastelum’s, and these statistics don’t properly reflect the difference in talent.
The greatest evidence of the disparity here is how Whittaker’s performance against “Jacare” was far superior to that of Gastelum’s.
Whittaker outstruck “Jacare” 40 times to 6 times, allowing Souza to land only 19% of his strike attempts. Meanwhile, Whittaker picked “Jacare” apart and connected with 40 of his 85 strikes from a distance.
Gastelum’s strike tally came in just below “Jacare” in their fight, landing just 41 strikes in three rounds vs. Souza’s 42. Gastelum connected at 32% whereas “Jacare” landed at 46%.
See the difference? Whittaker employed a brilliant gameplan against the Gator to keep him backed against the cage and far out of reach. Whittaker walks out to Roy Jones Jr.’s “Can’t Be Touched” single, and he delivers on the lyrics.
Why we’re betting on Robert Whittaker to win
The value here is on Whittaker to win, although we’re not entirely confident in the method of victory options that are available. Whittaker to win by decision is at +200 and is certainly tempting, but we’re opting to stay clear of that line and instead take him to win, considering the potential for a late finish.
Gastelum’s going to be competitive in the early rounds of the contest, and that’s where he’ll be most dangerous. As we move into round three, four, and maybe even five, Whittaker’s going to jump ahead because of his advantages across the board but most notably his endurance and game planning.
A late KO/TKO win for Whittaker is also a likely outcome.
Bet on Robert Whittaker to win: -229 at Pinnacle
Read more: Beginners Guide to Betting on MMA
Israel Adesanya vs. Anderson Silva
This matchup received plenty of criticism when it was first announced by the UFC – and for a good reason.
It’s billed as a matchup of two guys with similar stylistic tendencies and abilities. Israel Adesanya is a smooth operator, sticking and moving around the cage with ease; using his kickboxing expertise to overwhelm his opponent with possibilities. Anderson Silva made a name for himself doing the same things, too. He’s regarded as one of the greatest of all-time merely because of his reputation as an elite striker.
But as we’ve come to see in the last couple of years mainly, the new breed of mixed martial artists coming through are above and beyond the wildest of expectations we may have set in the past.
Silva was one a top-tier striker in the UFC, but there’s every chance he looks out of place against Adesanya. And that’s not to say it’s merely because of his age, as Adensaya would likely roll even the best version of Silva.
To the surprise of nobody, bookmakers have Adesanya as an overwhelming favorite.
Anderson Silva vs. Israel Adesanya Betting Odds
So, is this an incredible mismatch? Or is there enough value on Silva’s side to take a stab at the underdog?
There’s good reason to believe that Adesanya won’t just be faster and more precise than his opponent at UFC 234 – he’s arguably the more intelligent striker with sounder defensive techniques. Adesanya’s not going to be deflecting incoming shots with a high guard much like Justin Gaethje and other brawlers in the UFC, rather Adesanya uses brilliant distance management to stay out of range and danger. He’ll occasionally use head movement to evade strikes, but mostly it’s just a step back or duck under to stay out of danger. One of his greatest abilities is to be able to anticipate the next move.
It’s a dangerous fight for Silva in many ways. If he leads the way and pushes the action, we can see Adesanya’s counter-punching ability making a real impact. A simple slip back out of range before stepping back in with a cross is enough to make Silva nod his head in appreciation and take a few steps back.
Adesanya has repeatedly mentioned that he wants to make a statement in this fight. He’s not looking just to earn an easy decision win, it seems more like he’s interested in showcasing the best of his abilities and making Silva look silly.
Even still, we’re mostly expecting this fight to look more like a sparring match between two highly-talented strikers. Silva will constantly be feinting to try and sneak inside Adesanya’s range, but he’ll be met with stiff counters. Adesanya’s efforts to lead might lead him into a few of Silva’s sneaky weapons, as well.
Both fighters have good reason to be hesitant, and it’s also likely that this fight doesn’t go to the mat. Adesanya’s takedown defense is underrated, and that eliminates one of the potential pathways to victory for his opponent – unless Adesanya gets tied into a clinch game.
Yes, it’s a mismatch, but Silva is durable enough to last three rounds.
This one has Adesanya written all over it.
Bet on Israel Adesanya to win by decision: +200 at Bet365
Jonathan Martinez vs. Wuliji Buren
It’s not very often we provide a breakdown and bet recommendation for the first bout of the evening, but here’s one for you.
Jonathan Martinez is set to make his second appearance in the UFC after first fighting Andre Soukhamthath on short-notice in October. Martinez moved up to bantamweight, from flyweight, for his debut, jumping at the chance to compete in the UFC. He repeatedly expressed interest in returning to flyweight after his defeat to Soukhamthath, but the flyweight division is now slowly disappearing.
He’ll be matched up with Wuliji Buren in a bantamweight bout at UFC 234.
Buren is 0-2 in the UFC after joining the promotion in November 2017. He dropped a unanimous decision to Rolando Dy in his debut – that was closer than the scorecards suggest – before then losing to Marlon Vera by second-round KO/TKO in August last year.
Here are the odds for this bantamweight battle:
Jonathan Martinez vs. Wuliji Buren Betting Odds
Martinez comes in as a decent favorite, despite giving up size and weight advantage to his opponent, Buren, who formerly competed at featherweight.
It’s difficult to understand what the bookmakers see in this matchup, but we’ll share our thoughts to give you some clarity.
Martinez isn’t the best striker you’ll find on the prelims, but his serviceable kickboxing ability will help him beat up Buren from long range. But arguably the most significant advantage Buren has in this fight is his ability to score takedowns and gain control over Martinez on the mat. Martinez has relatively poor balance and takedown defense and is likely to be taken down after missing with a kick or overextended type of strike. If this fight lasts the full 15 minutes, it’s hard to see a way that Buren doesn’t achieve at least three takedowns.
But the takedowns do present an opportunity for Martinez, who is especially dangerous from off of his back. With a diverse range of submission victories, including armbars, triangle chokes, and more, Martinez’s best pathway to victory could be a submission.
Martinez has scored multiple submission wins from the full guard position and most notably locked in a belly-down armbar after transitioning from a triangle choke. These attacks will be considered useful against Buren, who, in the fight with Marlon Vera showed that he is willing to go down to the mat and enter an opponent’s full guard.
He’ll be undersized, but at odds of +499 for a submission win against an opponent who will likely be trying to take him down to the mat… we’re going to be taking these odds.
Bet on Jonathan Martinez to win by submission: +499 at SportBet
Best Bets for UFC 234
Here are our best bets for UFC 234, happening this weekend in Melbourne, Australia.
- Robert Whittaker to win: -229 at Pinnacle
- Israel Adesanya to win by decision: +200 at Bet365
- Jonathan Martinez to win by submission: +499 at SportBet
Read More:
- Beginner’s Guide to UFC Betting
- What’s different between weight classes in the UFC?
- 5 MMA Betting Experts Talk UFC Gambling Strategies, Advice, and Best Tips
Jake is a mixed martial arts reporter from Australia. At WagerBop, he merges his appreciation of combat sports and a strong passion for analytics to uncover opportunities for readers.
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