UCLA at Utah Odds and Picks: Finding the Best Underdog Bets in CFB Week 9

The main thrust of this week’s NFL prediction column is creepy enough for Halloween – a discussion of what constitutes gridiron betting heaven, and what football-gambling hell would be like too.

A different metaphor is appropriate for Week 9’s college picks. Right now, FBS odds-makers are like farmers on a flood plain, standing proudly over a meek stack of sandbags and telling everyone it’ll only be a drizzle.

Why else would sportsbooks offer so many 2 and 3-touchdown point spreads and wild underdog moneylines on rivalry games and heavyweight conference showdowns, in such a chaotic year when anything can, will, and has already happened in college football?

Cincinnati, the AP’s courageous new choice at #2 in Week 8, beat Navy 27-20. Yet the Bearcats are nearly 4-touchdown favorites vs Tulane this Saturday. While it may be likely that Cincy will rekindle its momentum and surf right through the Green Wave, the game’s (-24.5) point spread is hardly the only example. Big Ten scrums that would’ve been considered toss-ups as of a month ago or being handicapped like Florida vs Vandy.

Where on Week 9’s betting board are the best FBS underdogs? Probably on some of the wider point spreads, but feel free to consider a low-priced moneyline or 2 on some games even if not recommended at WagerBop.

FBS Week 9: Betting Lines, Predictions, and Best Wagers

Troy Trojans at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: Thursday, October 28th

You probably won’t read “Hooray for the AP pollsters!” on any other CFB picks blog this week, in fact it’s hard to find much praise for Top 25 voters on any gridiron campus. But pigskin’s Top 25 takes on more significance when fairness rules the day, and it’s praiseworthy that Coastal Carolina still remains on the ledger despite a momentum-cooling upset loss to Appalachian State.

Coastal Carolina is valued so highly because of a new respect for the Sun Belt, which is growing out of “bubble” FBS status amidst the challenges of COVID-19. Pundits are impressed by the Sun Belt’s 9-4 record vs fellow Group-of-5 representatives, and by fighting losses to Texas and South Carolina.

Will the Troy Trojans be the next Sun Belt team to garner national acclaim, starting on Thursday at CCU? Not according to Las Vegas bookmakers. Point spread picks on the Troy Trojans are being wagered on the hefty line of (+18.5) or nearly 3 touchdowns. Coastal Carolina is expected to rebound with a romp after having the Mountaineers snap an incredible success-streak.

Should there be a Coastal blow-out, it probably won’t be because the Chanticleers overwhelmed Troy’s defense. Troy has the #3 ranked defense in the conference and has played outstanding ‘D on the road on several occasions in 2021.

Troy’s defenders were worn down by long opposing drives in last week’s squeaker over Texas State, which doesn’t bode well for Trojan chances to conquer CCU in the 4th quarter. However, clients at FanDuel are making Over/Under picks on an extremely cautious line of (51.5) for Thursday’s kickoff in Myrtle Beach.

That’s a clue to where the point spread might be sitting if Coastal didn’t have so much more street-cred than Troy among the public of recreational football wagerers.

Recommended bet: Troy (+18.5)

Navy Midshipmen at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Friday, October 29th

It’s no secret that Navy football is down in the dumps. WagerBop, however, was guilty of error-by-omission in not reporting that former Navy OC Ivan Jasper has been demoted to “Quarterbacks Coach,” even though HC Ken Niumatalolo successfully talked the Academy’s brass out of firing the Flexbone genius in September.

Hopefully, no other FBS pundits are glancing at Navy’s sideline, locating Jasper’s familiar frame pacing the field, and going on to assume that the chain-of-command is stable on an otherwise beleagured coaching staff.

The Midshipmen have done a marvelous job setting last month’s distractions aside and getting all hands on deck against a tough October slate. But results are only showing up for ATS speculators in Las Vegas, far from the academy at Annapolis where moral victories (and successful point-spread picks) don’t count for much. Navy scored its only win by upsetting UCF 34-30, but the Mids have lost 3 in a row while covering the spread 2 more times, fighting #2 Cincinnati hard in a 7-point defeat.

Is it likely the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-11.5) will out-play its 3-4 record and cover ATS on Friday? Tulsa’s defense has been stubborn, holding Ohio State to less than 200 overall passing yards and just 13 points in the 1st half of a 41-20 defeat. But the hosts have had a hard time generating scoring drives when the chips are down, and teams with workmanlike offenses are not solid ATS picks against Flexbone opponents who chew up the game clock, as evidenced by Army’s back-door cover against Wisconsin.

Navy’s combination of high 1st-down totals and low TDs-per-play could make the Middies a terrific low-side O/U bet this month.

Recommended bet: Navy (+11.5) and Under (47.5)

Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans: Saturday, October 30th

NCAA fans may never see a more iconic rivalry-game finish than Michigan State’s triumph at Michigan in 2015, earned via the epic “Whoa! Trouble with the snap!” fumble return for a TD at the 0:00 mark. Bookmakers know the Paul Bunyan Trophy’s history well, but is Fanduel Sportsbook too optimistic in hoping for another heart-stopping 4th quarter?

After a string of episodic wins, Michigan State (+3.5) is all ginned-up about an undefeated W/L record. But the Spartans’ top-10 ranking seems a little “ginned up” as well, considering the weakness of MSU’s schedule to-date and thin margins-of-victory against average opponents. Michigan State’s defense was shaky in the 1st half against WKU, and the Spartan offense was out-worked 26 1st-down conversions to 12 in a close shave vs Nebraska. MSU went on to need a 2nd-half comeback in mid-October to beat Indiana 20-15.

At the same time, the Michigan Wolverines are also undefeated, with a resume that’s easily on a higher plane than Michigan State’s performances. Jim Harbaugh’s team has crushed Wisconsin, Washington, Northwestern, and the upper tier of the MAC. Casting the better roster as a FG favorite would be understandable if a rival-opponent lived in Japan, but the Paul Bunyan game’s cross-town atmosphere doesn’t necessarily help the home team, as shown by the memes that still circulate of shocked Michigan fans.

Recommended bet: Michigan (-3.5)

Iowa Hawkeyes at Wisconsin Badgers: Saturday, October 30th

The O/U picks are once again drawn on an extremely-low point total for a Big Ten game played under college football’s clock-rules. Wisconsin (-3.5) vs Iowa has garnered a (36.5) Over/Under for an expected Saturday slobber-knocker in a cold Fall environment.

Wisconsin picked-off Purdue 3 times in a 30-13 road victory last weekend. Iowa’s defense managed the rare feat of looking good in an icy environment in their 24-7 loss to Purdue. But it won’t be “ice cold” on a mild weekend in the Rust Belt. Wisconsin could remain a sluggish offensive team in big games against Big Ten stalwarts. Iowa, however, can turn to a sneaky ground game to rebuild confidence after 2 weeks off, and potentially tilt the turnover battle against UW in a way in which the Badgers won’t be able to contend.

Recommended bet: Iowa (+3.5)

Georgia Bulldogs at Florida Gators: Saturday, October 30th

Georgia has a championship level team that richly deserves its #1 national ranking, but we’re not sure if the “Dawgs” deserve a (-14.5) point spread at FanDuel headed into a Saturday kickoff at The Swamp.

The loud host-venue of Florida will help to contain a Georgia team built on elite defense. While the Gators’ 49-42 road loss at LSU represents a downturn from September, it’s also an example of what happens when SEC teams travel to iconic stadiums.

Florida lost to Alabama by 2 points – we’re thinking the Gators can stay within 2 TDs of Georgia.

Recommended bet: Florida (+14.5)

Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes: Saturday, October 30th

Since falling in consecutive Big Ten games and nearly dropping out of the Top 25, Penn State has become a dodgy moneyline pick in October. While PSU only lost to Iowa and Illinois by a combined 5 points, FanDuel’s odds-makers think that the Nittany Lions are in for a blow-out defeat on Saturday night, marking Ohio State an (-18.5) pick against the spread.

Penn State remains a difficult team to embarrass on the gridiron whether or not they are playing in Happy Valley. PSU’s last loss by more than 20 points came on a 2018 trip to Ann Arbor. The Ohio State vs Penn State series history also can’t be contributing to Sin City’s forecast of a lopsided scrum. Penn State hasn’t lost to OSU by 2 TDs or more since 2016, the year when head coach James Franklin was still getting settled into his role.

Ohio State’s offense, led by quarterback C.J. Stroud, is thought to be poised for another 5+ touchdown evening in Week 9. But every Big Ten team the 6-1 Buckeyes have beaten, save for perhaps Minnesota, has turned out to be a dud in midseason. OSU lost to Oregon in its only major test against an elite roster, while Penn State has acquitted itself well in victories over Wisconsin and Auburn in addition to nearly knocking-off Iowa in a recent match-up.

Recommended bet: Penn State (+18.5)

UCLA Bruins at Utah Utes: Saturday, October 30th

Chip Kelly’s UCLA Bruins have a news narrative that goes through so many weekly mood changes, fans could get whiplash just following the headlines. When you strip away the hype and look at UCLA’s 5-3 record objectively, however, the Bruins have been pretty reliable for a team that runs a “2-minute drill” from the opening kickoff to the 4th quarter. UCLA’s characteristic speedy secondary kept Oregon QB Anthony Brown off-balance in a 3-point loss on October 23rd, but in spite of the visitors’ form vs top-10 teams, the Utah Utes are handicapped as (-6.5) favorites over UCLA.

A referee’s special-teams call may have unfairly ended UCLA’s comeback bid vs Oregon. It’s not great for a coach to have his head stuck in the previous game when attention should be focused on an arduous road trip, especially when it’s an offense-minded HC who is heavily involved in “scripting” snaps in the 1st quarter. Kelly, however, is too experienced to blow a chance at a 9-win season by letting his head get in the way.

The Utes have played excellent defense in Salt Lake City while ringing-up a 3-0 record at home. However, Utah has failed to stop ordinary teams on the road, to the extent that the team’s resume is incomplete and hard to handicap. If Utah’s defense is that dependent on crowd noise and QB hurries, Kelly’s offense can simply increase its tempo and beat the rush anyway. Ultimately, as in any toss-up scenario, the underdog is always the right pick, making UCLA an excellent pick ATS or on the moneyline.

Recommended bet: UCLA (+6.5) or UCLA (+198)