The 2020 NFL season is in full swing and the divide between contenders and pretenders is widening. Top teams can already begin looking forward to the postseason while Trevor Lawrence can book his flight to MetLife stadium now to save money. Here is a little taste of what Week 6 of NFL action offered.
I cite FiveThirtyEight often in this piece. Their NFL Prediction tools are fun to play around with. For each NFL team, I list the % chance that FiveThirtyEight gives of that team reaching the 2020 postseason.
Several factors determine a team’s shot of qualifying for postseason football – including current record, remaining strength of schedule, health of star players, and strength of division.
I also cite Killersports often. Their suite of query tools makes finding betting trends a breeze for both casual and hardcore NFL observers. All 32 teams are still mathematically alive (although some aren’t trying … cough Jets cough) and will be getting a break down.
Expanded Playoffs Beginning in 2020 NFL Season
Did you know the NFL has expanded the playoffs from 12 teams to 14 beginning with the 2020 season? This is the first expansion of the NFL postseason since the field changed from 10 to 12 in 1990.
Moving forward, division winners will receive the 1-4 seeds in their conference based upon regular season record. Seeds 5-7 will belong to the Wild Cards. There are now 3 from each conference.
It always looks bad for the NFL when teams with losing records sneak into the postseason. Those worried that an expanded postseason will allow even more teams with losing records into the field will be pleased to know that this is not the case. NBC Sports went back and found that if this current system had been implemented since 1990 – we would have a smaller percentage of losing teams in the playoffs as well as a smaller number of 10-win snubs.
Remember in 2008 when the Patriots were 11-5 and missed the playoffs while the 8-8 Chargers got to go? Yeah, that won’t happen now with the current system.
An added benefit of the 14-team field is that each conference now has just one bye. This will create more meaningful games among top teams late in the regular season. Gone are the days of 13-0 and 14-0 teams resting starters late in the season because they already have the 2-seed clinched.
Using FiveThirtyEight‘s season predictions, we can put together the potential 2020 NFL playoff bracket for amusement and speculation. Here it is!
Some early thoughts:
- The NFC East winner seems destined to have a losing record. Projections indicate the Eagles have a major leg up on the rest of the division. A 6-win playoff team would be a new record-low since we have adopted the 16-game schedule.
- How interesting would that Bears-Eagles 4-5 game be? The Eagles – the higher seed – would get to host the game even though Chicago is 4.5 games ahead in the standings.
- The AFC looks to be the stronger conference – with 4 of the top 5 teams most likely to win the Super Bowl residing in the AFC. These teams are the Chiefs (19% chance), Ravens (10%), Steelers (9%) and Titans (9%).
Buffalo Bills 4-2 
Hot Betting Trends: The Bills play a road game as the favored team in Week 7 – this means the over is a good bet. The over is 5-0 in Buffalo’s last 5 games as a favorite. The over is 4-0 in the Bill’s last 4 as a road favorite.
538 Playoff %: 68%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 13-point favorites at Jets (0-6)
Miami Dolphins 3-3
Hot Betting Trends: The Dolphins have won 3 of 4 ATS – destroying the spread by margins of 20.5, 33.5, and 14.5. Their lone ATS loss in this period was a 31-23 loss to Seattle in which Miami came 2 points shy of covering.
538 Playoff %: 27%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: Bye Week
New England Patriots 2-3 
Hot Betting Trends: The Patriots have failed to surpass the 12-point mark in back-to-back games – losing each contest SU and ATS. The last time the Patriots scored 12 or fewer points in consecutive contests and lost each SU and ATS was in Weeks 1 and 2 of the 1996 season. Their coach was Bill Parcells. Their quarterback was Drew Bledsoe. Despite the rocky start, New England finished the season 11-5, advanced all the way to the Super Bowl, but lost to Green Bay.
538 Playoff %: 39%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 2.5-point favorites hosting 49ers (3-3)
Patriots meet the 49ers for the first time since 2016.@pfwpaul scouts the matchups and previews #SFvsNE: https://t.co/RSkAPKVm4m
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 21, 2020
New York Jets 0-6 
Hot Betting Trends: Not only are the Jets the NFL’s only winless team through 6 weeks, but New York has not even been able to keep games close enough to win ATS. The Jets are tied with Dallas as the only 0-6 team ATS in the NFL this season.
538 Playoff %: <1%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 13-point underdogs hosting Bills (4-2)
Dallas Cowboys 2-4 
Hot Betting Trends: Somehow Dallas is the NFC East division leader after 6 weeks despite being 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS in 2020. The Cowboys are -2 favorites this year but fall an average of 9 points shy of covering each week.
538 Playoff %: 28%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 3-point favorites at Re*****s (1-5)
Take a look at this #DALvsWAS matchup from both sides of the ball 👇
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) October 22, 2020
Philadelphia Eagles 1-4 
Hot Betting Trends: Philadelphia hosts New York in Week 7 and is favored. This means we should fade the Eagles. Philly is 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite. This dates back to September of 2018.
538 Playoff %: 52%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 4-point favorites hosting Giants (1-5)
New York Giants 1-5 
Hot Betting Trends: The Giants are road dogs in Philly in Week 7 – which bodes well for their chances on the spread. New York is 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games as a road dog. This dates back to September of 2018.
538 Playoff %: 9%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 4-point underdog at Eagles (1-4)
Washington Re*****s (Football Team) 1-5 
Hot Betting Trends: The Re*****s have lost their previous 5 games SU – the margins were 15, 14, 14, 20, and 1. This is not good …
538 Playoff %: 13%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 3-point underdogs hosting Cowboys (2-4)
Seattle Seahawks 5-0 
Hot Betting Trends: We always think about the Seahawks having a strong home-field advantage, but Seattle can rack up the road wins too. The Seahawks are road favorites in Week 7 – which bodes well for their chances on the spread. Seattle is 7-0-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite. This dates back to September of 2019.
538 Playoff %: 94%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 3.5-point favorites at Cardinals (4-2)
Los Angeles Rams 4-2 
Hot Betting Trends: How do the Rams take care of business? Defense. The under is 9-1 in the last 10 games in which Los Angeles was favored. The Rams are 5.5-point favorites over Chicago in Week 7. Chicago is not known for their defense. Seems like a good spot for under lovers.
538 Playoff %: 60%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 5.5-point favorites hosting Bears (5-1)
Arizona Cardinals 4-2 
Hot Betting Trends: If you can’t figure out Arizona this year – don’t worry – Vegas can’t either. The spreads have been nowhere close to the final score in any of the Cardinals’ games this season. The closest margin has been 8 points – which is over a touchdown off. Vegas was 26 points off last week in Arizona’s 38-10 thrashing of Dallas.
538 Playoff %: 50%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 3.5-point underdogs hosting Seahawks (5-0)
San Francisco 49ers 3-3 
Hot Betting Trends: The 49ers play on the road in Week 7 – be on over alert. The over is 4-0 in the Niners last 4 road games. San Francisco is averaging 24.7 points per game this year – 20.3 when at home and 33.5 when on the road. The stars are aligning for a high-scoring bout in Foxborough.
538 Playoff %: 39%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 2.5-point underdogs at Patriots (2-3)
Kansas City Chiefs 5-1 
Hot Betting Trends: Kansas City heads to Denver this week – under-bettors take notice. The under is 0-4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games on the road.
538 Playoff %: 97%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 9.5-point favorites at Broncos (2-3)
“Where the Chiefs match up with Denver is their speed, and that could open things up in the running game.” @trentgreen10@CrownRoyal | #KCvsDEN pic.twitter.com/OWEclCtc32
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) October 23, 2020
Las Vegas Raiders 3-2 
Hot Betting Trends: The Raiders are underdogs in Week 7 against Tampa Bay – which means the over is a good bet. The over is 4-0 in Vegas’ last 4 games as a dog. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 Raiders games.
538 Playoff %: 47%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 3-point underdogs hosting Buccaneers (4-2)
Denver Broncos 2-3 
Hot Betting Trends: How does Denver typically deal with good teams? They slow the game down. The Broncos are home dogs – hosting the Chiefs in Week 7. The under is 9-2 in the last 11 games in which Denver was a home dog. This dates back to December of 2017.
538 Playoff %: 19%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 9.5-point underdogs hosting Chiefs (5-1)
Los Angeles Chargers 1-4 
Hot Betting Trends: Despite a record of 1-4, Los Angeles is favored heavily in their Week 7 matchup versus the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars. The last time a 1-win team has been favored by more than a touchdown this late in the season was 2018. Before that it was 2008. 4 of the last 5 teams in this spot have won SU – so the Chargers ML is appealing this week. However, 4 of the last 5 have lost ATS – so fade the Chargers spread.
538 Playoff %: 7%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 7.5-point favorites hosting Jaguars (1-5)
Pittsburgh Steelers 5-0 
Hot Betting Trends: You think Vegas would catch on by now, but unders hitting all the time when Pittsburgh is a road favorite – as they are this week at Tennessee. Dating back to October of 2013, the under is 27-5-1 when Pittsburgh is a road favorite.
538 Playoff %: 93%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 2-point favorites at Titans (5-0)
Baltimore Ravens 5-1 
Hot Betting Trends: The Ravens have scored an average of 29.8 points per game this season – the 7th-highest mark in football. Baltimore is also one of 8 teams to score 20+ points in every game this season. Despite consistent scoring by Baltimore, the under is 3-2-1 in their games. This is because Baltimore boasts one of the league’s strongest defenses and is holding opponents to an average of 17 points per game.
538 Playoff %: 92%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: Bye Week
Cleveland Browns 4-2 
Hot Betting Trends: Did the Browns play on the road last week? Yes. Do they play on the road again this week? Yes. This is a sign we should bet against them. The Browns are 0-11 SU in their last 11 road games following a road game? Here’s another filter – did the Browns lose last week? Yes. The Browns are 0-9 SU in their last 9 road games following a road loss.
538 Playoff %: 61%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 3.5-point favorites at Bengals (1-4-1)
Cincinnati Bengals 1-4-1 
Hot Betting Trends: Despite being terrible, Cincinnati is surpassing expectations on the Vegas point spread. The Bengals are 4-1 ATS this season for a profit of $290 and a 52.7% ROI.
538 Playoff %: 2%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 3.5-point underdogs hosting Browns (4-2)
Battle of Ohio Week 🔜 pic.twitter.com/ZFFQFyZeZz
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) October 21, 2020
Chicago Bears 5-1 
Hot Betting Trends: Hop on those Bears live bets if Chicago falls behind early. 3 of the Bears’ 5 wins this season have come after Chicago faced a deficit of 13 points or more. The Bears are looking to surpass the 2008 49ers who won 6 games in this fashion.
538 Playoff %: 86%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 5.5-point underdogs at Rams (4-2)
Green Bay Packers 4-1 
Hot Betting Trends: The Packers played in a road game last week. Green Bay is 7-0 SU in their last 7 games following a road performance. This week’s game is against Houston – so I like Green Bay’s chances of improving to 8-0.
538 Playoff %: 84%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 4-point favorites at Texans (1-5)
Detroit Lions 2-3 
Hot Betting Trends: When the Lions are underdogs – there is a reason. Detroit is 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a dog. This dates back to October of 2019. Detroit is slight dogs as they travel to 1-5 Atlanta in Week 7.
538 Playoff %: 13%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 2.5-point underdogs at Falcons (1-5)
Minnesota Vikings 1-5 
Hot Betting Trends: The over is 4-2 this season in Vikings games – but not because Minnesota has a prolific offense. The Vikings defense is allowing 32 points per game – the second-most in football.
538 Playoff %: 6%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: Bye Week
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-2 
Hot Betting Trends: The Bucs are on the road in Week 7 and struggle a bit this year when playing away from home. Tampa is 1-2 both ATS and SU in 2020 on the road.
538 Playoff %: 80%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 3-point favorites at Raiders (3-2)
New Orleans Saints 3-2 
Hot Betting Trends: Are the Saints favorites? Yes. Then bet the over. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 games in which New Orleans is favored.
538 Playoff %: 66%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 7.5-point favorites hosting Panthers (3-3)
Carolina Panthers 3-3 
Hot Betting Trends: The Panthers have underachieved lately. Carolina is 4-10 ATS in their past 14 games. This dates back to November of 2019.
538 Playoff %: 19%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 7.5-point underdogs at Saints (3-2)
Atlanta Falcons 1-5 
Hot Betting Trends: The Falcons can’t be trusted lately – even at home. Atlanta is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
538 Playoff %: 4%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 2.5-point favorites hosting Lions (2-3)
Tennessee Titans 5-0 
Hot Betting Trends: The over is 4-0 in the Titans’ last 4 games. Tennessee is a dog at home this week against Pittsburgh, which is also good for over-bettors. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 games in which the Titans were home dogs.
538 Playoff %: 93%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 2-point underdogs hosting Steelers (5-0)
Derrick Henry named AFC Offensive Player of the Week
Week 6 🏆 » https://t.co/9CudvXin8i
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) October 21, 2020
Indianapolis Colts 4-2 
Hot Betting Trends: The Colts are allowing fewer than 200 passing yards per game in 2020 – the only team to do so. Despite the stingy defense, overs are 3-3 in Colts games this year. Vegas knows that scores will be hard to come by in Indy. The average total in Colts games is 45.6 – the 7th-lowest in the NFL.
538 Playoff %: 49%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: Bye Week
Houston Texans 1-5 
Hot Betting Trends: Houston has not been favored in many games lately, which sucks because you can’t trust the Texans as an underdog. Houston is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog. Houston will be home dogs in Week 7 against the 4-1 Packers.
538 Playoff %: 4%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 4-point underdogs hosting Packers (4-1)
This connection was something else!
#TouchdownTuesday pic.twitter.com/0T2z6kefQw— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) October 21, 2020
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-5 
Hot Betting Trends: Jacksonville is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. The Jags have also not won a football game since Week 1. In the past 3 weeks, Jacksonville has lost to 3 teams with a combined record of 4-12-1. Their average margin of loss in these games is 14 points … not good.
538 Playoff %: <1%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 7.5-point underdogs at Chargers (1-4)
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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