These Current MLB Leaders Could Fall Apart in the Next Month

Here’s a blast from the past. Before COVID, we ran 2 annual installments of the “June 1 Stat Leaders” series which explores how often the leaders in the various fantasy categories on June 1 retain that lead to the end of the regular season.

Those in the fantasy baseball world as well as MLB bettors are in the business of figuring out whether players are for real or bound to regress back to the mean.

Can we trust the player with 20 home runs more than the player with the .380 batting average through the end of May?

What about that pitcher with a 1.50 ERA through his first 12 starts? How much faith can we put in that guy down the homestretch when the games matter the most?

These are the types of questions that our “stat leaders on June 1” article attempts to answer. On top of being an informative and helpful tool for fantasy owners and sports bettors, the act of digging into old data is a blast for fans of the sport and is a terrific way to reminisce about some of the great players who have come and gone.

As is our style here, we’re going to dive back through the past 10 seasons of MLB statistics (using Fangraphs almost exclusively) to find how often the leaders in the fantasy baseball categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB, ERA, WHIP, K, W, S) hold their June 1 leads.

We believe 10 seasons to be the ideal sample size because that gives a large enough sample to where the data means something but isn’t mixing results from different eras of baseball – like the steroid era, etc.

April and May Batting Average Leaders

We chose to look at batting average first because it is almost always the first hitting stat listed when talking offensive numbers in baseball. Most full-time hitters are right around 200 at-bats by June 1st – which means their average is going to move a couple of points each time they step into the box. A hitter can knock 6 or 8 points off their average with a bad game in early June or boost it way up with a few hits.

Here are the June 1 leaders and end-of-season leaders in batting average each year since 2012 (excluding 2020 because the 60-game schedule isn’t conducive to this study).

Year	June 1	End of Season
2023	L. Arraez (.381)	—
2022	J.D. Martinez (.363)	J. McNeil (.326)
2021	N. Castellanos (.356)	T. Turner (.328)
2020	—	—
2019	C. Bellinger (.376)	T. Anderson (.335)
2018	M. Betts (.359)	M. Betts (.346)
2017	R. Zimmerman (.368)	J. Altuve (.346)
2016	D. Murphy (.397)	D. LeMahieu (.348)
2015	D. Gordon (.377)	Mi. Cabrera (.338)
2014	T. Tulowitzki (.352)	J. Altuve (.341)
2013	Mi. Cabrera (.372)	Mi. Cabrera (.348)
2012	P. Konerko (.381)	B. Posey (.336)

As you can see, only twice in the past 10 years did the Major League batting leader on June 1 wind up wearing the crown. Also of note is that the end-of-season batting champ always sports a lower average than the June 1 leader. Always.

Sorry Luis Arraez, but history says you definitely won’t be hitting .381 by the end of September and you probably won’t be leading the league, either.

April and May Home Run Leaders

They say chicks dig the long ball. If that’s true, then this list of former and current home run hitters must be swimming in it. There were some ties atop the leaderboard for home runs, which makes sense. It is hard to gain a lot of separation in this category, even for the best power hitters.

We’ll sort out the ties at the end. Here’s what we got for home run leaders on June 1 and end of year over the past 10 full seasons.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2023	P. Alonso (20)	—
2022	A. Judge (18)	A. Judge (62)
2021	3 tied (16)*	2 tied (48)*
2020	—	—
2019	C. Yelich (22)	P. Alonso (53)
2018	4 tied (18)	K. Davis (48)
2017	A. Judge (17)	G. Stanton (59)
2016	2 tied (16)	M. Trumbo (47)
2015	2 tied (18)	C. Davis (47)
2014	N. Cruz (20)	N. Cruz (40)
2013	C. Davis (19)	C. Davis (53)
2012	J. Hamilton (21)	Mi. Cabrera (44)

The asterisk in the 2021 numbers indicates that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays was a part of the 3-way tie at 16 homers on June 1st as well as the 2-way tie for 48 at the end of the season. This was not the case in any of the other ties in home runs over the past 10 years.

Pete Alonso has taken command of the home run race with 20 by June 1st. For the second-consecutive season, Aaron Judge has 18 through the end of May. He’s not first in the Majors but is first in the American League.

History gives Pete Alonso a decent shot at remaining ahead of Judge in the home run department. He’s certainly more likely to do that than Luiz Arraez is to win another batting title. Why is that?

It is much harder to close a gap in a home run race than it is to narrow the gap in batting average. The biggest factor is that your home run total cannot decrease like your batting average. When protecting a batting average lead, not only must you hope the guy below you doesn’t get hot, but you have to keep yourself hot or you will fall right down the board.

A second important factor is that there are far less hitters out there who can realistically compete for a home run crown compared to a batting title. Less competition and far less prone to flukes.

You can fluke your way to a .300 average over a decent sample, but have you ever heard of a hitter “fluking” his way to a 30-home run season? Nah.

April and May RBI Leaders

RBI totals aren’t what they were 100 years ago. You have to go all the way back to 1962 to find the last time a player who didn’t cheat drove in 150. These days, 130-140 is the best you can ask for.

Texas’ Adolis Garcia is cementing himself as one of the league’s best hitters with a very strong start to 2023 after breaking out in the 2022 campaign. Let’s see how likely Garcia is to hold onto that RBI lead.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2023	A. Garcia (49)	—
2022	Jo. Ramirez (51)	A. Judge (131)
2021	J. Abreu (46)	S. Perez (121)
2020	—	—
2019	J. Bell (53)	A. Rendon (126)
2018	J.D. Martinez (47)	J.D. Martinez (130)
2017	C. Blackmon (46)	G. Stanton (132)
2016	D. Ortiz (47)	N. Arenado (133)
2015	G. Stanton (44)	N. Arenado (130)
2014	N. Cruz (52)	A. Gonzalez (116)
2013	Mi. Cabrera (61)	C. Davis (138)
2012	J. Hamilton (57)	Mi. Cabrera (139)

So many times did the June 1 RBI leader hold on till the bitter end? Just once in the past 10 years – J.D. Martinez in 2018.

This one is surprising. RBIs do not fluctuate like batting averages so holding an RBI lead would seem to be a bit easier.. RBIs are far more common than home runs, though, and we just got done saying that holding onto leads is far tougher when you have more competition.

You can build an RBI lead far quicker than you can a home run lead but you are prone to give up said lead just as quickly.

April and May Runs Leaders

Onto baseball’s most important stat but not always the most appreciated – runs. The ongoing debate in baseball is whether the guy who scores the run or the guy who drives in the run is more valuable.

If you can’t score you can’t win. Run-scorers may not receive the most love from the media and fans, but it sure is fun to watch a good hitter work his way on and then maneuver his way around the bases.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2023	F. Freeman (49)	—
2022	M. Betts (50)	A. Judge (133)
2021	B. Bichette (43)	V. Guerrero Jr. (123)
2020	—	—
2019	T. Story (53)	M. Betts (135)
2018	M. Betts (52)*	2 tied (129)*
2017	P. Goldschmidt (46)	C. Blackmon (137)
2016	M. Betts (49)	M. Trout (123)
2015	J. Donaldson (43)	J. Donaldson (122)
2014	J. Donaldson (48)	M. Trout (115)
2013	J. Votto (45)	M. Carpenter (126)
2012	C. Gonzalez (44)	M. Trout (129)

So how often did the top dawgs remain the top dawgs? Over the past 10 seasons, the runs leader on June 1 ended up on top just twice. Once was Josh Donaldson in 2015 and the other Mookie Betts in 2018.

The main reason there is so much variance in run scoring is that much of it is out of the player’s control. Much like being a receiver in football, being a top run-scorer can only happen when your teammates hold up their end.

Runs are the ultimate free-for-all. You don’t even need to be a good hitter to score. It helps. It helps a lot, actually, but a great middle-of-the-order can inflate a tablesetter’s run figure right up onto the top of the leaderboard.

Competing for a runs title is very difficult because so many hitters are capable of it. It is generally understood that runs are the main-5 hitting stat a hitter has the least control over. For this reason, no one ever makes a big deal about who is leading the league in runs even though it’s the only stat that really matters at the end of the day.

April and May Steals Leaders

Steals are back in 2023 thanks to the new rules. The bases are bigger, which helps, and the pitchers are restricted in their disengagements from the rubber. We’re seeing more stolen bases (and attempts) early in 2023 than in any season in a long time.

A stolen base can get in the pitcher’s head, get in the catcher’s head, demoralize an entire team, and improve your team’s scoring chances all in less than 4 seconds. Guys who are capable of steals are always in high demand but have short shelf lives.

There is always a lot of turnover in the steals department because you need to be both very fast and very healthy to steal a huge number of bags in a season. Unfortunately, most players do not possess both of these traits for long.

A couple of young speedsters will set the league on fire for a couple of years and then drop off the face of the earth – ala Billy Hamilton or Dee Gordon.

The new face of the stolen base – Esteury Ruiz – plays for the worst team in baseball, the A’s. Ruiz has swiped 28 bags already in 2023, the most by June 1st since the aforementioned Billy Hamilton in 2017.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2023	E. Ruiz (28)	—
2022	J. Rodriguez (14)	J. Mateo (35)
2021	W. Merrifield (15)	S. Marte (47)
2020	—	—
2019	A. Mondesi (21)	M. Smith (46)
2018	E. Inciarte (18)	W. Merrifield (45)
2017	B. Hamilton (28)	D. Gordon (60)
2016	J. Villar (19)	J. Villar (62)
2015	B. Hamilton (21)	D. Gordon (58)
2014	D. Gordon (34)	D. Gordon (64)
2013	J. Ellsbury (21)	J. Ellsbury (52)
2012	E. Bonafacio (20)	M. Trout (49)

The stolen base leader on June 1 has held onto the crown in 3 of the past 10 seasons, but not since 2016. Steals is a category where you will not find much competition at the top. Normally there are only 3 or 4 guys with a realistic chance of winning the steals crown each year, which is why we’re surprised that the June 1st leader holds on just 30% of the time.

Because speed does not go in slumps, many stolen base races are determined by who stayed healthiest throughout the year.

April and May ERA Leaders

Time to showcase some of the league’s top pitchers. 24-year-old Atlanta righty Bryce Elder is having an excellent rookie season after making just 10 appearances at the big league level last year.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2023	B. Elder (1.92)	—
2022	M. Perez (1.42)	J. Verlander (1.75)
2021	J. deGrom (0.71)	C. Burnes (2.43)
2020	—	—
2019	H. Ryu (1.48)	H. Ryu (2.32)
2018	J. Verlander (1.11)	J. deGrom (1.70)
2017	E. Santana (1.75)	C. Kluber (2.25)
2016	C. Kershaw (1.56)	K. Hendricks (2.13)
2015	2 tied (1.48)*	Z. Greinke (1.66)*
2014	J. Samardzija (1.68)	C. Kershaw (1.77)
2013	P. Corbin (1.71)	C. Kershaw (1.83)
2012	B. Beachy (1.77)	C. Kershaw (2.53)

Just like with batting average, the end-of-year ERA leader is always worse than the June 1 leader was. That’s the power of regression.

Elder’s 1.92 ERA is the lowest on the year, although every single season in the past 10 years has produced at least 1 pitcher with a better ERA at this point.

As you can see from the table, early leads in ERA mean very little. Just 2 pitchers in the past 10 seasons have had ERA leads on June 1st last until the end of the season.

Just like batting average, ERA is extremely volatile and fluky. You will have lots of competition toward the top. The most deserving pitcher may not always win the ERA crown. This is why xFIP exists.

April and May WHIP Leaders

WHIP stands for walks and hits per innings pitched. WHIP per se is not important, but pitchers who allow a lot of traffic will eventually get burned. It’s inevitable.

WHIP and ERA go hand-in-hand. If a pitcher has a high WHIP but a low ERA, he is getting lucky. It means he is working himself out of a lot of jams.

Baltimore starter Tyler Wells wasn’t on anybody’s radar to lead the league in anything this year and yet here he is, leading baseball in WHIP on June 1st.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2023	T. Wells (0.83)	—
2022	C. Burnes (0.82)	J. Verlander (0.83)
2021	J. deGrom (0.57)	M. Scherzer (0.86)
2020	—	—
2019	J. Verlander (0.74)	J. Verlander (0.80)
2018	J. Verlander (0.71)	J. Verlander (0.90)
2017	E. Santana (0.84)	C. Kluber (0.87)
2016	C. Kershaw (0.65)	M. Scherzer (0.97)
2015	Z. Greinke (0.87)	Z. Greinke (0.84)
2014	J. Cueto (0.76)	C. Kershaw (0.86)
2013	M. Harvey (0.82)	C. Kershaw (0.92)
2012	J. Verlander (0.89)	Jer. Weaver (1.02)

2 of the previous 10 June 1 WHIP leaders were able to maintain their positions atop the league, and both are Justin Verlander.

Unfortunately, Tyler Wells isn’t Justin Verlander, so he probably won’t be holding onto this WHIP lead.

April and May Strikeout Leaders

Strikeouts are to pitchers what home runs are to hitters – the ultimate goal of each at-bat even though you can succeed at a very high level without them. Being a low-strikeout pitcher doesn’t necessarily mean bad performance, but high-strikeout pitchers are almost always great.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2023	S. Strider (106)	—
2022	S. McClanahan (81)	G. Cole (257)
2021	S. Bieber (110)	R. Ray (248)
2020	—	—
2019	G. Cole (116)	G. Cole (326)
2018	M. Scherzer (120)	M. Scherzer (300)
2017	C. Sale (110)	C. Sale (308)
2016	C. Kershaw (105)	M. Scherzer (284)
2015	C. Kluber (96)	C. Kershaw (301)
2014	C. Kluber (95)	D. Price (271)
2013	Y. Darvish (105)	Y. Darvish (277)
2012	J. Verlander (82)	J. Verlander (239)

5 times in the past 10 years did the June 1 strikeout leader hold on until the end of September. Of the 10 stats we look at today, strikeouts are the most predictive.

Very few pitchers are capable of legitimately competing for the strikeout crown, so there’s not much competition at the top. Deficits are also difficult to overcome because it is tough to gain ground. A typical start for an ace pitcher might mean 7 or 8 strikeouts. An awesome start might mean 12 or 13. You only gain a few.

Spencer Strider is young and unproven, although history tells us he has an excellent chance of winning the strikeout crown if he remains healthy.

April and May Wins Leaders

We dislike discussing the records of pitchers as we feel that a pitcher’s record is not a good indication of how well he is pitching. Just like runs with hitters, wins and losses depend so much on your teammates. Just look at Jacob deGrom in 2018.

Wins are still praised by the media, though. Wins gifted Rick Porcello the Cy Young in 2016. Wins also still count for major points in fantasy baseball, so let’s see what’s up.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2023	S. McClanahan (8)	—
2022	3 tied (6)	K. Wright (21)
2021	J. Flaherty (8)	J. Urias (20)
2020	—	—
2019	D. German (9)	J. Verlander (21)
2018	M. Scherzer (9)	B. Snell (21)
2017	D. Keuchel (8)	4 tied (18)
2016	3 tied (9)	R. Porcello (22)
2015	2 tied (8)	J. Arrieta (22)
2014	M. Buehrle (9)	C. Kershaw (21)
2013	4 tied (8)	M. Scherzer (21)
2012	2 tied (8)	G. Gonzalez (21)

Not once over the past 10 seasons was the pitcher with the most wins on June 1 and the pitcher with the most wins at the end of the season the same person.

Sorry Shane McClanahan. You are off to a great start but history almost guarantees that you will not win the most games in the majors this year. You may snag the 2nd-straight All-Star Game start for the American League, though.

April and May Saves Leaders

And finally, the thorn in the side of fantasy owners and MLB managers alike – saves.

Saves are, by far, the most difficult of the 10 fantasy stats to predict. In order for a save to occur, your team must create a save opportunity.

You can be a perfect pitcher and still wind up with low saves numbers simply because your team is either too good (they always win by a lot) or too bad to create ample save opportunities.

Because saves really have more to do with the team than the actual closer himself, there is always a high turnover in the saves leaderboards from year-to-year – even more than the steals leaders.

Year	June 1	End of Season
2023	E. Clase (17)	—
2022	J. Hader (18)	E. Clase (42)
2021	M. Melancon (17)	M. Melancon (39)
2020	—	—
2019	K. Yates (22)	K. Yates (41)
2018	E. Diaz (19)	E. Diaz (57)
2017	G. Holland (19)	A. Colome (47)
2016	2 tied (17)*	J. Familia (51)*
2015	G. Perkins (19)	M. Melancon (51)
2014	3 tied (17)	F. Rodney (48)
2013	J. Grilli (22)	2 tied (50)
2012	C. Perez (17)	J. Johnson (51)

Four different times over the past 10 seasons has the June 1 saves leader successfully closed the most games come the end of September. 40% is a relatively high number, as we learned today, which is most likely due to the fact that closers in good situations typically will remain there for the duration of the season.