Pointsbet Sportsbook released their NBA season win totals this past fall before the season began. Their Oklahoma City Thunder total opened at 46.5.
The Thunder were fresh off losing stars Russ Westbrook and Paul George. Even with those two in the lineup, Oklahoma City was a first-round exit from the playoffs in 3-straight seasons. Expectations were not high for OKC around the league.
The overwhelming consensus from the betting public was that 46.5 wins was way too much to ask of a depleted Thunder team. The total was soon driven down … way down. I have never seen this much movement. The total closed at 31.5.
Those first several bettors who locked in the under at 46.5 probably thought they were getting the steal of a lifetime. The Thunder won just 49 games in 2018-19, and their roster is far weaker on paper this season.
Turns out 46.5 was just about right. Vegas knew what they were talking about. At 20-16 and the 7th seed in the West, OKC is on pace for 45.5 wins.
So what did Vegas see in this team? Why did so many people bet the under? Why are the Thunder good? And how can I profit from their solid play?
Post-Russ Era Thunder Roster
Oklahoma City is not a particularly veteran team nor are they very young – they are right in the middle – 16th in the league in average age. Some call the Thunder a rebuilding team but their payroll does not fit that description.
OKC is shelling out the 7th-most in payroll of any team in the NBA this year. Chris Paul is signed to a massive deal – making over $38.5 million in 2019-20. Long-time Thunder center Steven Adams is making north of $25.8 million.
Danilo Gallinari is putting together one of the best seasons of his career and is earning $22.6 million in his inaugural season with the Thunder. Even OKC 6th-man Dennis Schroder is earning the big bucks – $15.5 million.
The future looks extremely bright in Oklahoma City due to some shrewd trading which give the Thunder at least 2 first-round picks in each draft from 2020 to 2024. The fear among Thunder fans and season-over bettors is that OKC will sell their best players at the deadline and use the return from those trades plus their abundance of picks to completely rebuild.
Rachel Nichols of ESPN indicates a full rebuild is the direction in which Thunder GM Sam Presti is leaning. This would be a shame.
Why be bad on purpose if you don’t have to be? With a solid core of Paul, Adams, Gallinari, Schroder, and the young guns Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Hami Diallo – the Thunder will be set for years to come.
Sure, Paul is 34 and won’t be good forever, but the Thunder have so many picks that they can easily replace aging players with good, younger ones.
Barring some major trades in which the Thunder’s stars get shipped away, I see OKC making the playoffs. FiveThirtyEight agrees. Their NBA predictions system gives Oklahoma City an 89% chance of qualifying for the postseason. At 20-16, OKC is 7th in the West and 4.5 games ahead of the 8-seed (currently the Spurs).
The Thunder have won 5 of 6 and 8 of their last 10. In December, OKC played to an 11-4 record, the best in the NBA for that month. They are looking very good right now. I will quickly spotlight their best performers to explain why they are playing so well and then I’ll give you my Thunder live-betting tip.
Chris Paul
Now 34, Paul had made a resurgence in 2019-20 after posting career lows in points per game (15.6) and field goal percentage (42%) last season.
The supposed decline of Chris Paul is one of the main reasons the Thunder were not expected to perform well this year, but Paul once again deserves to be mentioned among the league’s best. He is 34th in the league in player efficiency rating (PER).
Paul is averaging 16.3 points, 6.6 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. Just 5 other players in the entire league are putting up 16/6/1.5 seasons – Russell Westbrook, Jimmy Butler, James Harden, Jrue Holiday, and Fred VanVleet. Good company.
Most impressively, of these 6 players, Paul has the fewest turnovers. Of the 6, only James Harden is posting a higher effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage this season than Paul.
Chris Paul shooting over centers like people dropping new year’s resolutions. pic.twitter.com/JUGM3A7Lod
— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) January 7, 2020
This Thunder team plays completely different with Paul at the helm than they did while led by Westbrook. Check out the differences in pace and offensive rebounding. These are their NBA ranks.
| Season | Pace | O REB |
| 2018-19 | 6th | 3rd |
| 2019-20 | 25th | 28th |
Last year, the Thunder would run run run. Their emphasis on pounding the offensive boards (especially the triple-double-happy Westbrook) would allow the opposing team to also get out in transition. Thunder games were track meets.
This style of play worked when Russell Westbrook was running point. He was great in transition. Paul doesn’t like to play fast. He excels in the half-court. Give HC Billy Donovan props for adjusting his gameplan to fit his new crop of players.
Dennis Schroder
Schroder is making an excellent case for the NBA’s 6th-man of the year – averaging 18/4/4 off the bench.
Schroder is not a bulk scorer, he plays rather efficiently – shooting 47% from the field and 35% from 3 this year. Schroder leads the entire NBA with 18 20-point games off the bench.
His clutch scoring has proved invaluable late in games and forces the defense to remain honest and not swarm to Paul in key situations.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
The 21-year-old Kentucky product SGA is showing why he deserved to go 11th overall in the 2018 Draft.
Alexander leads the team in points per game (19.8) while also grabbing 5 boards and dishing out 3 assists per game. He does all this on 46% shooting and 36% from deep while turning the ball over less frequently than Chris Paul.
If bettors didn’t see Paul having a bounce-back year, they certainly didn’t see SGA becoming one of the league’s best young scorers. With Paul at the 1 and SGA at the 2, the Thunder boast a very formidable backcourt.
Danilo Gallinari
The 31-year-old Gallinari is playing exactly how the Thunder hoped he would when they acquired him this past offseason. Continuing the red-hot finish of his 2018-19 campaign with the Clippers, Gallinari is posting an 18/6/2 line while shooting 39% from deep.
Gallinari leads the Thunder in 3 point attempts but backs up his volume by also leading the team in 3-point shooting percentage. When Gallo gets hot, the Thunder can erase deficits in a hurry. More on this later.
Because of his age, Gallinari is a prime candidate to be sold at the deadline.
Nerlens Noel
Another Kentucky product, Noel was drafted 6th overall back in 2013 and was considered a bust while playing for Philly and Dallas. 2019-20 is Noel’s 2nd season in OKC, and he has finally blossomed into a high-level forward.
Noel is putting up 7.7 points per game, which is not a career-high for him, but he is doing it on 66% shooting which blows his other seasons out of the water.
How about free throws? Noel improved his FT% from 68% last year to a cool 81% this season. Rim protection? You betcha. Noel is throwing back 1.5 shots per game, 13th in the league.
Noel is accomplishing all this in just 18 minutes per game. One word describes his game – efficiency. Noel ranks highest on the Thunder and 16th in the league in PER.
Steven Adams
Noel’s frontcourt mate is no slouch himself – the 7-year veteran center Steven Adams. Adams is scoring double-digits points per game for the 4th-straight season and is grabbing over 10 boards per game for the first time in his career.
Today we hear so much talk about “stretch-4s” and big men who can spread the floor with their shooting. Adams is not that guy. In fact, Adams has never made a 3-point shot in his NBA career.
Steven Adams is somewhat of a dinosaur. He is a center who excels at setting hard picks, getting good post position, and being a bully inside.
Adams’ minutes in 2019-20 are down from year’s past. This is because the Thunder opt to play “small ball” quite a bit, forgoing their center more often than last season. The reduced minutes have helped Adams become more efficient. He ranks 23rd in the league in PER.
This puts 3 Thunder players (Paul, Noel, Adams) in the top 34 in the league PER rankings. The only other teams with 3 top-34 players are the Lakers, Clippers, and (somehow) Pistons.
Thunder Live-Betting Tip
As promised, here is how I would look to profit off the Thunder this season. This team starts slow but has a knack for dramatic comebacks. The Thunder have 4 comebacks of 15+ points this season – including one from 24 down and one from 26 down.
No matter how slowly this team starts, they are never out of a game. OKC is 2-2 (50%) this season when trailing by double-digits after the 1st quarter. The rest of the league is 24-100 (19%). The Thunder are 7-9 (44%) while trailing at the half. The rest of the league is 142-373 (28%).
Simply put, OKC is better at comebacks than most teams. In-game betting lines are typically adjusted by computer algorithms, not humans. Until they prove the magic is gone, give the Thunder the benefit of the doubt when trailing. This could include betting the 2nd-half Thunder over, the 2nd-half opponent under, the 2nd-half Thunder spread, or (for the ultimate risk-reward) bet the Thunder to win when they fall behind big early.
I will soon begin my transition into the college game as we creep up on the tournament. Stay tuned for my first bracketology of the year. See you on top!
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
Leave a Reply