Imagine owning a jet ski rental business in a northern coastal city. For three-quarters of the year, business is going to be slow. In fact, you will probably only be open for a few months. No one jet skis in Michigan in February.
As you winterproof your building and prepare to take the cold months off, you realize that your business will be losing money until you are able to reopen. You see, the jet ski game is centered around three main weekends: Memorial Day, 4th of July, and Labor Day. That is when you make all your money.
Even during the summer when you are open every day, you are not going to see wild profits. Just like department stores need Black Friday to get back in the black on the finance reports, jet ski rental owners need a huge boom those three big weekends to make their living.
If it’s raining on the 4th of July … tough. Abnormal cold during Labor Day weekend … hmm, too bad. When you get the perfect weather with huge tourist crowds, though … ka ching!
It’s a high-risk high reward game, but you will profit in the end. Once you wrap your head around the fact that your business makes its money in huge spurts, the stagnation of the rest of the year will not bother you.
Now think about baseball season. I found an April betting trend that has produced well over 1,000 plays and won bettors north of $8,000 over the past 15 years. Since 2004, this system has a healthy ROI of 7%, similar returns to what you would see on a long-term stock market investment.
Here is the catch, this system has lost money in 6 of those 15 years and is actually losing money in the early going this year.
While I would hesitate to call this system consistent, it is dependably profitable in the long term – kind of like jet ski rentals. When this system loses, it loses small. You will gladly withstand those “cold summer weekends” because when this system wins … oh boy … you can clean up in April!
Here are those numbers since 2004.
Season | # of Games | Profit |
2019 | 23* | -$520 |
2018 | 54 | -$198 |
2017 | 77 | -$39 |
2016 | 70 | -$665 |
2015 | 72 | $2,303 |
2014 | 90 | $2,668 |
2013 | 99 | $186 |
2012 | 62 | -$1,029 |
2011 | 87 | $42 |
2010 | 61 | -$655 |
2009 | 75 | $685 |
2008 | 90 | $2,335 |
2007 | 82 | $215 |
2006 | 84 | $1,795 |
2005 | 80 | -$510 |
2004 | 65 | $1,435 |
Total | 1,171 | $8,048 |
* through April 9, 2019
This is the type of train I’d love to hop aboard. No devastating losses, but several historically profitable Aprils.
Do I have your attention? Ready to hear what this magical system is?
In the month of April, simply bet road underdogs from +105 to +150 who are coming off a loss. That’s it!
I know, it sounded too good to be true when I first saw it, too, but the numbers don’t lie.
Those of you who notice that this system is off to an awful start in 2019 are right to be skeptical. Bettors have already lost over $500 in we’re not even halfway through. In fact, these underdogs have only won 34.8% of their games this year, a record low.
Numbers regress toward the mean, boppers! Never have we seen an April in which these underdogs performed so poorly for the entire month. I am more than willing to bet we will see a turnaround.
Stay tuned because I will definitely be tweaking this system and looking for ways to generate even greater profits. See you on top!
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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