The Heat Better Have Learned These Lessons In Game 4

Bam Needs to Bang, not Launch

Bam Adebayo, objectively, has enjoyed a good NBA Finals series. 22.3 points per game, 12.5 rebounds, and almost 4 assists. In a vacuum, that’s great. In this instance, though, he needs to be better. The Heat are getting killed in this series, and Bam needs to take at least part of the blame.

Adebayo stands about 6’9. While this makes him undersized for an NBA center, he’s one of the tallest guys the Heat have. Bam is no string bean. He’s 255 pounds of muscle and can really move some bodies when he gets to bangin’ in the post.

Through the first 3.5 games of the series, though, there was little “bangin” to speak of. Bam obviously watched too many Julius Randle highlights before the Finals because he’s convinced himself he’s a jump shooter now.

This brick occurred on one of Miami’s first possessions of Game 4. It’s the type of shot that makes you want to tear your hair out when it comes from a 6’9 guy. You’re 6’9! Get in the post!

Very fittingly, Nikola Jokic gets the ball down low on the very next possession and drops in a little right-handed jump hook from inside of 7 feet.

This sequence couldn’t have run out more perfectly for contrasting the play of the two big men. This was a microcosm of the Jokic-Bam matchup all series long to that point. Jokic had been sacrificing his body inside for tough buckets and trips to the line while Bam preferred to take jumpers, learners, and acrobatic reverse layups that no big man should ever attempt.

Here’s another one just a couple of possessions later. These questionable shot choices weren’t just “Bam being Bam,” they were ruining the Heat’s chances to remain in these ball games. The Nuggets started slow in both Games 3 and 4, and yet wound up leading by halftime in each of those games. Why? Because the Heat were incapable of capitalizing on Denver’s slow start and built only moderate leads in the first quarter instead of huge ones.

Take Game 3, for instance. The Heat had an early 9-4 lead which the Nuggets erased by the end of the period. Had the Heat played better basketball in those opening minutes, the lead may have been 11-4, 13-4, even 15-4. Miami might have led after the first quarter. The Heat might have been playing more confidently before halftime. The whole game could have panned out differently. You never know.

Instead of saying, “oh well, we can afford it” when Bam bricks a jumper in the first quarter with a 5-point, Head Coach Erik Spoelstra should have demanded smarter shots from his interior anchor. Because the Heat obviously couldn’t afford it! The Nuggets are clearly the more talented team. They will go on a run at some point during the game. Miami’s goal is to build up enough of a cushion to withstand it. In Games 3 and 4, they couldn’t.

It’s no secret that Bam is hurting his team with the jump shots. Somebody (hopefully it was Coach Spo) must have talked to Bam during the first quarter of Game 4, because the big man didn’t take another jumper the entire contest (save for a last-second heave).

This play late in the 2nd quarter was much bigger for the Heat than just the 2 points it created. Note how Bam catches, plows through 2 defenders using his strength, and then finishes strong.

Bam could have easily settled for a little flick shot over Jokic from 8 feet out but he decided to play strong instead. This even prompted ESPN color man Mark Jackson to say “that’s what [Bam has] gotta do more of. The mid-range jumper is not falling.”

If national network commentators and random sports writers on the internet can see the problem, a professional coaching staff should sure be able to diagnose it. If the Heat allow Bam to shoot more jumpers in Game 5, they will lose. This should be the case, though, as Bam went the final three quarters of Game 4 jumper-free.

The Heat Need Jimmy Butler to Hog the Ball

Heat guard Jimmy Butler – aka Playoff Jimmy – is having a fine Finals series. Scoring 21.8 points per game, grabbing 5.0 rebounds, and dishing out 6.8 assists per night all while turning it over just 1.3 times per contest is elite stuff. Butler is doing everything for this team – even hustling more than anyone else.

He’s doing everything for this team, except scoring at a high volume.

Jimmy Butler needs to revert back to his Milwaukee-series form. Jokic has averaged 30.8 points per game in the series. Though he prefers to pass, he’s shown no hesitation to be aggressive and look for his own shots when the defense gives it to him.

Butler has not. “Playoff Jimmy” is averaging just 21.8 points per game in this series with a high game of 28. Good, but not what Miami needs. In Game 5, the Heat desperately need the Jimmy who dropped 35 in Game 1 against Boston or, even better, the Jimmy who dropped 56 on the Bucks in Game 4.

Player	Reg. Season PPG	Finals PPG
Jimmy Butler	22.9	21.8
Bam Adebayo	20.4	22.3
Tyler Herro	20.1	0
Max Strus	11.5	4.3
Caleb Martin	9.6	6.8
Gabe Vincent	9.4	12.8

Here’s why Butler needs to step up and look to shoot more than he’s accustomed to. The Heat – who ranked dead last in points per game in the 2022-23 regular season – have a difficult time scoring even at full strength. In this Finals series, Tyler Herro remains injured, Max Strus is shooting 16%, and Caleb Martin is scoring less than 7 points per game.

The Heat are in dire need of Butler to put the offense on his back, take 30 shots, and will his Heat to a Game 5 victory.

The law firm of Strus, Martin, and Vincent ain’t it in this series. Miami has, however, gotten better-than-expected production from both Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson. In the Finals, Lowry is averaging 10.5 points per game while Duncan is dropping 8.5.

Here’s Lowry looking like the old guy at the YMCA with a physical and effective hard box out and then a three-pointer off glass on the other end. Lowry simply smirked after this sequence. He knew that never should have worked in the NBA Finals.

Were it not for the play of Duncan Robinson, Miami might have been swept. Robinson is known for his shooting but has demonstrated a great all-around game through the first 4 contests in this series.

Remember in Game 2 when Robinson blew by Jamal Murray on the baseline and finished with an and-1 lay? Nobody knew he could do that.

It’s not just his offense, either. For years, Robinson’s playing time has been limited due to his poor defense. He was a liability. someone you had to hide on that end.

While he’s no Kawhi Leonard, he’s at least brought his defensive game up to average levels and can now remain on the court for extended periods of time. Here he is taking advantage of Nikola Jokic’s worst decision of the series.

The interception is a great play but note how Robinson immediately charts a course right for the big man. Duncan was entertaining no thoughts of pulling up, fading, or pushing a floater. He was taking the ball right at Nikola Jokic. At this point in the game, Joker only had 3 fouls. This means he had the freedom to get in front of Robinson and contest.

Joker seems to have been taken off guard by Robinson’s beeline to the hope, however, and was unable to get in front of the Michigan man – affording him the easy right-handed layup from the left side.

Max Strus Needs to Come Out, the Heat Should Play Duncan Robinson More

Former NBA sharpshooter turned podcaster – JJ Redick – argued that Duncan Robinson deserves to be in the starting lineup in Game 5. We agree. Think back to that chart we showed of the regular season numbers versus this Finals series.

Max Strus’ play has been downright awful while Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin have been mediocre, at best. With their backs against the wall, why not give Duncan Robinson more minutes and see what he can do?

Robinson has averaged just under 20 minutes of court time per game in the Finals. He’s shooting 54.2% from the field, 44.4% from deep, and has turned the ball over just twice in the 4 games (one of which was offset by that picked off Jokic pass).

Miami’s starting 2-guard – Max Strus – is averaging north of 23 minutes per contest but is shooting a pitiful 16% from the field and 19% from deep. It’s a small sample size, but he’s 2-3 from the charity stripe in this series, also a bad percentage.

Strus’ play in this series hasn’t just been bad and a little detrimental, it’s been historically miserable. Already through 4 games, Max Strus has recorded 3 contests with 18+ minutes, 4+ field-goal attempts, and a shooting percentage less than 15%. 3 of them! Already, Strus has set the all-time NBA record for the most such games in one Finals series, and we potentially have 3 games to go.

There are a host of players all tied with 2 such games in the Finals, most recently Rajon Rondo with the Lakers in the 2020 NBA Finals and Danny Green with the Spurs in the 2013 NBA Finals.

Earlier in the season, Strus would likely be given the volume to shoot himself out of the slump for his confidence’s sake. In Game 5 of the NBA Finals down 3-1, however, you can’t afford to put a sub-optimal lineup out there. And for the Heat right now, their optimal lineup contains Duncan Robinson – the 6’6 shooter out of Michigan.

Heat Need to go Crazy in the First Quarter of Game 5

We wrote the other day about how Miami lost Game 3 of this series by the 2nd quarter because they failed to take advantage of a slow start by Denver. On Friday night, the Heat missed another opportunity to take a commanding early lead because Miami turned the ball over 5 times and shot 1-6 from deep in the first 8 and a half minutes of Game 4.

Another parallel to the Game 3 loss was Aaron Gordon stepping up big time in the 2nd quarter of Game 4. In Game 3 it was Jamal Murray who seemed to hit a big shot every time the Heat were getting going. On Friday, it was Gordon.

Jimmy Butler nailed a corner triple at the end of the 1st quarter to give Miami a 21-20 lead at the end of the opening period. The only other game this series in which the Heat led after the first was their Game 2 win, so this was a very good omen.

That Heat crowd has waited 9 years to see Finals basketball. They wanted to explode and go crazy so badly in Game 3 but the moments just never occurred. Miami really needed a run to open the 2nd quarter, something to give the boys some breathing room and get the fans amped.

Jamal Murray kept them quiet in Game 3. Aaron Gordon and his 8 points in the first 3 minutes of the second did it in Game 4.

This little 8-point run for Gordon was reminiscent of Duncan Robinson’s 8-point barrage to begin the 4th quarter of Game 2. 

Sadly for the Heat, their Cinderella run may be coming to an end no matter how many adjustments they make. Only 1 team in NBA history has overcome a 3-1 deficit in the Finals – the 2016 Cavs.

We’ll leave you with what Mike Van Gundy called the “most non-essential stat ever quoted in the NBA Finals.” There have been 0 technical fouls in this series. The last time we’ve had a Finals with no techs was 2013 (Heat vs Spurs). Something to think about as you go about your day and prepare for Game 5 Monday night.