Which was the only division in football last season with two 11-win teams? Which was the only division with 3 playoff teams?
I’ll give you a hint: it is a division that has sent teams to the Super Bowl 2 of the last 3 seasons. The answer? The NFC South.
A few weeks ago, we looked in depth at the AFC South and determined it is wise to bet against them in interdivision play.
Now we have a chance to analyze another division. With the success the Saints, Panthers, Buccaneers, and Falcons have had over the past 5 seasons one would think they must fare well in out-of-conference play.
In NFC play, the NFC South brings it. When they cross over, however, they routinely get exposed. This is not what I expected to find, and I figured it deserved a deeper look.
NFC South Teams vs AFC Teams
Take a look at the combined records for NFC South teams when they have played out of conference since 2013.
| Year | ATS Record | ATS % |
| 2018 | 5-7 | 41.7% |
| 2017 | 7-7-2 | 50% |
| 2016 | 8-9 | 47.1% |
| 2015 | 8-9 | 47.1% |
| 2014 | 5-11 | 31.2% |
| 2013 | 6-9-1 | 40% |
| Total | 39-52-3 | 42.9% |
Not good at all. A $100/game bettor would have lost 18.2% or $1,820 over this span. You would think a division with such talent would excel against any team, but that is not the case.
NFC South Teams vs Other NFC Teams
The NFC South fares much better against non-division NFC opponents. Take a look.
| Year | ATS Record | ATS % |
| 2018 | 9-9 | 50% |
| 2017 | 12-14-1 | 46.2% |
| 2016 | 18-7-1 | 72% |
| 2015 | 14-11-1 | 56% |
| 2014 | 12-14 | 46.2% |
| 2013 | 14-12-1 | 53.8% |
| Total | 79-67-4 | 54.1% |
Pretty decent overall. Combined, the teams have a profitable ATS win percentage but they are not terribly consistent year to year. In 2014, 2017, and 2018, NFC South teams have lost bettors money against other NFC teams.
The overall ATS win percentage for these games since 2013 is 54.1%, that is only a 3.3% ROI. This means bettors of such games would be up $530, which is not enough to cover their losses on games in which they bet NFC South teams to beat AFC opponents.
Team-by-Team Breakdown
When a trend emerges throughout a division, it is important to break it down by team. Sometimes one or two teams may really be playing well or really struggling and are skewing the results.
Take a look at the ATS records against AFC opponents for each NFC South team since 2013.
| Year | Saints | Panthers | Bucs | Falcons | Total | % |
| 2018 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 0-3 | 5-7 | 54.5% |
| 2017 | 2-2 | 3-1 | 2-0-2 | 0-4 | 7-7-2 | 50% |
| 2016 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 2-3 | 8-9 | 47.1% |
| 2015 | 2-2 | 3-2 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 8-9 | 47.1% |
| 2014 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 3-1 | 0-4 | 5-11 | 31.2% |
| 2013 | 2-2 | 1-2-1 | 2-2 | 1-3 | 6-9-1 | 40% |
| Total | 11-12 | 12-11-1 | 11-10-2 | 5-19 | 39-52-3 | |
| % | 47.8% | 52.2% | 52.4% | 20.8% | 42.9% |
What is up with the Falcons? This team infamously blew a lead to the Patriots in Super Bowl 51 and has not beaten an AFC team since.
That 20.8% ATS win percentage since 2013 is definitely dragging down the totals of the division, but note that none of the teams in the NFC South have a profitable ATS record against AFC teams.
Even if you left the Falcons out of it, you would still be down $230 or 3.1% since 2013.
The moral of the story: Beware of putting too much faith in NFC South teams when they crossover to play in the AFC. Keep this in mind when handicapping.
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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