TCU at Texas: Betting on a Pivotal Big 12 Battle

I have always felt that handicapping early in the football season is a greater challenge than dealing with the extra variables of November and December.

Sure, late in the NFL or FBS campaign there are often more minor injuries (and major injuries) to take into account. If one team is winning and the other is out of the postseason already, fine points of motivation must be considered. The National Football League can wind up hosting a “2^nd preseason” of sorts in December as franchises that have clinched a top playoff spot put pressure on coaches to sit their stars on the bench. It’s hard enough to handicap Tom Brady vs Aaron Rodgers – what if you have no idea how long one or both of them will stay in the game?

But there’s a helpful factor in late-season handicapping for which the punditry of September has no parallel component, and that’s sample-size. Every gridiron unit has its ups and downs, and breaks on the field impact every result. In late Autumn, it’s easier to draw a line – or a bell curve – through a team’s progression as it improves, regresses, or treads water.

In contrast, handicapping early-season games is a Wild West scenario. Crazy upsets – or what appear to be upsets – and seemingly inscrutable results are posted on the scoreboard. Box scores and game film tell us a lot, but don’t answer the time-honored question – were the so-called underdogs playing that well, or were their victims playing well-below their usual standards?

Take the Texas Longhorns. As the grand old program prepares to face the TCU Horned Frogs in a crucial Big 12 clash in Week 4, some bettors are drawn to the fact that the Longhorns just tore USC a new Trojan in a 37-14 beating. Based on that final score, the Longhorns must be considered a contender in their Power-5 conference. Yet in Week 1, Texas lost to Big Ten also-ran Maryland, 34-29. In Week 2, Tom Herman’s boys barely scraped past Tulsa by a touchdown.

It’s less difficult to discern what direction Texas Christian is heading in. Gary Patterson’s squad began their season with a pair of blow-out victories, then led the Ohio State Buckeyes in a Week 3 prime-time contest in which the Frogs eventually lost 40-28 to a powerful visiting offense. TCU is currently ranked #17 in the AP poll.

Bookies aren’t convinced that the loss casts Saturday’s visitors to Austin as any more impressive than Texas looks after beating Southern Cal. The point spread for TCU at Texas opened as a pick’em. But gamblers feel differently. The spread has moved sharply in Texas Christian’s direction after only a few days of betting action, marking the Horned Frogs as a (-3.5) favorite on the road.

Certainly, the clash with Ohio State turned a few heads, even though TCU was out-lasted and ultimately beaten. Patterson’s blitzing defense held a powerful rushing offense to just 4.4 yards per carry, and OSU quarterback Dwayne Haskins was sacked once and hurried 3 times. Junior Horned Frog running back Darius Anderson had a terrific night, scampering through the Buckeye defense on a 93-yard touchdown carry and finishing the game with over 150 yards on the ground and 2 receptions. TCU may have lost in the end, but they appeared to be a legitimate New Year’s Six contender against a Top 5 opponent.

Against USC, however, Texas looked like a defense that can stop any rushing attack.

The Trojans lost to Stanford 17-3 in Week 2, but they ran the football OK against the hell-for-leather D of the Cardinal. In a victory over UNLV the previous weekend, USC ran for over 200 yards as Aca’Cedric Ware had a 100-yard outing. Yet the Longhorns corralled Ware and the rest of the Southern Cal backfield before shutting them down completely in the 2^nd half. Ware finished the loss with 8 yards on 4 carries. Texas rattled USC’s heralded frosh QB J.T. Daniels with far more sacks and hurries than TCU mustered against Haskins, intercepting the young phenom and driving the Pac-12 contender’s overall rush total into the negative after 4 quarters.

Herman may not have the offense he wants – not yet. The former Houston Cougar HC is used to coaching dual-threat dynamos like Greg Ward behind center. Sophomore UT quarterback Sam Ehlinger runs the ball adequately on read-option carries, but has struggled with accuracy and decision-making at times in his 2^nd year. Maryland intercepted Ehlinger 2 times, and the 6’3” hometown product went only 15-of-33 in the win over USC.

I’m not worried about the Horned Frogs going 3-and-out too often and giving Ehlinger unlimited chances to engineer scoring drives. While the visitors don’t have the kind of pass-blocking that could persevere if Texas takes an early lead and Longhorn linemen like Charles Omenihu are encouraged to drive up-field to the pocket, Patterson’s team knows how to use tempo and snap the ball before a defense can get settled. That helps overcome the disadvantage of playing in a noisy, hostile environment.

Though I’m liking TCU on the point spread, my best pick for this scrum is the over (47). The Big 12 always produces some eye-popping final scores as the season moves forward, and each team will be anxious to take a 1^st-half lead this Saturday in Austin. The Horned Frogs know that they’ll be able to protect talented QB Shawn Robinson easier with a lead and a run-heavy play selection, while the Longhorns will want to answer another 1^st-half TCU surge with points of their own.

I can envision a 35-27 type result that blows out an O/U line that would be higher than (47) under normal circumstances. The point total is falling at some sportsbooks and holding much-higher at others, so pick a market that offers the lowest total, and bet confidently on a pair of worthy offenses to go toe-to-toe in an exciting match-up on Saturday.