T Minus One Month Bracketology – NCAA Tournament Field Predictions

6 That is the number of college basketball teams I deem “safe” right now.

Selection Sunday is just under one month away and only Duke, Kentucky, Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee are safe. I believe this sextet could lose out and still make the dance. That means ALL other teams need to ball out down the stretch to qualify for the postseason tournament that matters. Sorry, NIT. You don’t matter.

32 Division I teams will enjoy the peace of mind an automatic bid provides. These bids are earned by winning your conference tournament. All others must suffer through watching an overly dramatized Selection Sunday show, anxiously hoping the committee deems them worthy of 1 of 36 at-large bids.

I am going to follow the same format for breaking down this bracket as I have my previous two. I will first go conference by conference and list who I like to earn the auto bids. Next, I will rank the at-large bid recipients. Finally, I will put it all together into bracket form and give you something pretty to look at. Let’s get started.

2019 NCAA Tournament Predictions – Automatic Bids

Here are my predictions for the winners of each of the 32 NCAA Division I basketball conferences. Along with my pick, I have included the likelihood the team wins their conference tournament. Those odds are courtesy of TeamRankings. Once again, note that these are in alphabetical order by conference and not in order of rank.

America East – Stony Brook (13.7%)

UMBC (yeah, that UMBC) has beaten both of the AEC favorites (Vermont and SBU) over the past couple of weeks. Vermont fell at home while SBU could not crack the Retrievers on the road. I predict SBU to be standing victorious in early March. The Seawolves get another shot at UMBC on Wednesday, 2/27.

American – Houston (39.9%)

I am much more confident in this pick after Houston beat the AAC’s second and third-best teams, Cincinnati and UCF, in back-to-back games.

A-10 – Davidson (19.9%)

ACC – Duke (47.0%)

Yep.

Atlantic Sun – Lipscomb (68.7%)

Big 12 – Kansas (22.5%)

My pick since Day 1, TeamRankings has KU slightly behind TTU for conference tourney favorites. This is intriguing considering the Jayhawks demolished the Raiders in their last meeting.

The two rematch in Lubbock on Saturday, 2/23 in primetime. Texas Tech would have to lay quite a whooping on the Jayhawks to steal my title of “Big 12 Top Dawg”.

Big East – Villanova (34.3%)

It is going to take more than a couple of losses to very good teams to cause my confidence in NOVA to waver. Jay Wright is a master and will have his team straightened out and ready to defend their title come March.

Big Sky – Montana (50.5%)

Winners of 9 straight, the Grizzlies have forced me to abandon my hope in Jerrick Harding and the Weber St Wildcats. 2 of those 9 victories were against the ‘Cats, finally forcing me to admit Montana is a superior team and better suited to win the Big Sky tourney.

Big South – Radford (47.1%)

Big Ten – Michigan (18.6%)

Big West – UC Irvine (43.9%)

This marks the second time I have changed my Big West pick. I have avoided Irvine due to their 3-happy gameplan, but after the Anteaters swept both of my previous picks I realized it was time to give them the respect they deserve.

Colonial Athletic – Hofstra (43.9%)

C-USA – Old Dominion (26.2%)

Conference USA is still an absolute mess. This is the hardest conference for me to pick and has been all year. Here is an updated look at the numbers.

Team	Conf. Tournament Win Chances	NET Ranking	Conf. Record
Old Dominion	26.2%	81th	11-3
W Kentucky	20.5%	131st	9-5
S Mississippi	12.9%	107th	9-5
N Texas	9.9%	127th	8-6
UTSA	8.6%	137th	9-5
LA Tech	8.5%	117th	7-7
UAB	5.9%	142nd	8-6
FL Atlantic	2.9%	148th	7-7
Marshall	2.4%	168th	7-7

An 8-team toss up has morphed into a 9-team toss up. My previous pick, Marshall, has sunk like a water-logged rock tied to a millstone. I am just going to side with the chalk on this one. The Monarchs are as solid a pick as anyone. Make me look smart, boys!

Horizon League – Northern Kentucky (47.3%)

Ivy League – Yale (58.8%)

Metro Atlantic – Rider (24.8%)

MAC – Buffalo (55.1%)

Mid-Eastern – Norfolk St (29.1%)

My confidence in the Aggies was short-lived. Spartans all the way!

Missouri Valley – Loyola CHI (30.1%)

Mountain West – Nevada (68.2%)

Of all the teams in D-1 college basketball, the Wolf Pack are the third-most likely (behind Gonzaga and Lipscomb) to win their conference tournament. Even if Nevada succumbs to the major upset, their body of work will earn them an at-large bid.

Northeast – St Francis of Brooklyn (SFC) (11.4%)

If C-USA is the hardest conference to predict right now then the NEC is a close second. The third-weakest conference in D-1, an NEC team does not appear in the NET rankings until Fairleigh Dickinson at 230th.

Comparing equally awful teams is not easy and not fun. Whichever team does earn the auto bid will be massacred in their opening round game. Regardless, take a look at the madness that is NEC hoops.

Team	Conf. Tournament Win Chances	NET Ranking	Conf. Record
St Francis (PA)	32.6%	260th	10-4
F Dickinson	14.7%	230th	9-5
Robert Morris	12.9%	268th	8-6
Sacred Heart	12.8%	240th	8-6
St Francis (NY)	11.4%	249th	8-6
Wagner	10.3%	280th	8-6
LIU-Brooklyn	3.8%	265th	6-8

For the sake of continuity, I am sticking with my pick – St Francis of Brooklyn (NY). I wonder where I can watch the NEC tourney …

Ohio Valley – Murray St (39.3%)

No one in the OVC can hang with Ja Morant.

Pac-12 – Washington (24.9%)

Patriot League – Bucknell (45.1%)

SEC – Kentucky (29.8%)

I have been shouting it since December – Kentucky will win the SEC.

Southern – Wofford (47.0%)

Southland – Sam Houston St (34.8%)

The miracle run was stopped one win shy of legendary. I still have plenty of faith in the Bearkats.

Southwest – Texas Southern (38.5%)

Summit League – South Dakota St (58.6%)

Sun Belt – Georgia St (26.0%)

West Coast – Gonzaga (88.0%)

The most dominant team since … Gonzaga.

Western Athletic – New Mexico St (53.0%)

2019 NCAA Tournament Predictions – At-Large Bids

This time of year, all bracketology conversations seem to center around the NET rankings. I have used them twice already in tables above, but what are they?

From 1981 to the spring of 2018, the rating percentage index (RPI) was the ultimate authority in college hoops. Unlike the AP and Coaches polls which rank teams based on how hot they are, this metric attempted to rank teams based on how good they were.

RPI calculations were heavily based upon strength of schedule (SOS). This was measured using a team’s winning percentage, their opponent’s winning percentages, and the WPs of their opponent’s opponents. Like all metrics, RPI had its flaws.

Experts now believe the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) does a much better job sorting out the mess that is college basketball’s regular season. Statistics included in NET are game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, and offensive and defensive efficiency.

What are the NET Rankings?

Here’s EVERYTHING you need to know. Be on the lookout for the first release 👀 pic.twitter.com/kdZwDEjFPS

— NCAA March Madness (@marchmadness) November 26, 2018

Because the NET will be a major influence on the decisions of the selection committee, I will include each at-large team’s NET ranking (in parentheses, like the odds from above) as I list them.

Here are the 36 teams I see receiving an opportunity to play for a national title in March. Unlike my automatic bids section, these are in order of descending rank.

1. Tennessee (6th)

Yeah, they lost to Kentucky. The ‘Cats are a 1-seed, though. No shame in that loss. The Vols are deserving of the top 2-seed.

2. Virginia (3rd)

3. North Carolina (9th)

4. Michigan St (7th)

Since I predicted their downfall back on 1/30, those betting against Sparty on the moneyline have won about $900. You’re welcome.

5. Louisiana St (16th)

Defending home court against Auburn and then emerging from Rupp victorious was monumental in the Tigers’ climb up the rankings. I have LSU jumping from a 5-seed all the way up to a 3.

6. Marquette (19th)

7. Purdue (12th)

8. Texas Tech (10th)

9. Virginia Tech (14th)

10. Wisconsin (15th)

11. Florida St (22nd)

12. Iowa St (13th)

At times, Iowa St plays like the best team in the Big 12. Other times they seem nothing but a tick above mediocre. Snapping Kansas St’s 10-game conference win streak in Manhattan was a mammoth win. Kansas could not do it. Texas Tech could not do it. The Cyclones appear to be peaking at the right time. Watch out! The Wildcats could ride a wave of momentum right into a top-3 or 4 seed come March.

13. Auburn (21st)

14. Iowa (28th)

15. Cincinnati (27th)

16. Texas (35th)

Shaka Smart would love to get another signature win and create a larger cushion between his Longhorns and the bubble. Texas beat Baylor a couple of weeks ago, but everyone is beating Baylor these days. The Longhorns then came up short against both #18 KSU and #14 TTU, blowing two wonderful opportunities to shoot up in the rankings.

17. Maryland (25th)

I will admit it. I have no clue what to think about Maryland. I’ve had them as high as 5 and as low as 8 (one or two losses away from being a dreaded bubble team). I settled in the middle this time at 7 after a terrific win against #12 Purdue. I am hoping I have the Terps pegged correctly, but they could easily prove me wrong in either direction.

18. Louisville (17th)

ACC schedule makers put Louisville through a grueling February gauntlet and the Cards fared as well as any team of their caliber can hope for. The ‘Ville stayed within 10 points against #8 UNC before squeaking out a thrilling Monday road victory in Blacksburg against #20 VT.

Back on the road the following Saturday, Louisville lost by a measly 5 points at #16 FSU before blowing a 23-point lead against the #1 Blue Devils.

With 2 games upcoming against #3 Virginia, the Cards will absolutely need to win their other 3 (Syracuse, Boston College, and Notre Dame) to remain secure in the field of 68.

19. Kansas St (29th)

20. North Carolina St (32nd)

21. Minnesota (51st)

My highest ranked team outside of the top-50 in NET, Minnesota is fresh off losses to #20 Wisconsin and #11 Michigan St. While we cannot expect the Gophers to beat these ranked opponents every time, Minnesota has won just twice this season against teams with a little number next to them. This explains the low NET ranking.

I have confidence the Gophers will make the field because they have #7 Michigan, #15 Purdue, and #24 Maryland all on the remaining schedule. Minnesota can and will make a splash when they need it most.

22. Syracuse (48th)

If this were an “if the season ended today” bracket prediction, I would have the Orange seeded much lower. Thankfully for CUSE, there are 5 remaining regular season games (3 of which are against top-10 opponents) to right the ship.

I predict CUSE to go at least 3-2 in these last 5, meaning they must beat either #1 Duke, #8 UNC, or #3 Virginia. Syracuse has not built a strong enough resume to afford a losing record in their final 5.

23. Ole Miss (30th)

24. Texas Christian (41st)

25. St John’s (46th)

Beating both top dawgs in the Big East will do wonders for your tournament seeding. We were just getting used to the fact the Red Storm won in Marquette against the #10 Eagles when Shamorie Ponds and company went out and beat the defending NCAA champs, #17 NOVA.

26. Arizona St (68th)

27. Seton Hall (60th)

Seton Hall has the best resume of any team that no one is talking about. Ranked 60th in NET, the Pirates are currently getting no respect. Who else in the nation can boast wins against Kentucky, Maryland, St John’s, and Butler?

The only embarrassing blemish on the Pirates’ record is a 2-game sweep at the hands of lowly DePaul. Some inconsistent play down the stretch has held SHU back from being on the top part of the bracket matchups come March.

28. Alabama (50th)

29. Virginia Commonwealth (43rd)

I know. I know. I wrote these guys off and now I have them as an 11-seed. That illustrates two points: I am not very patient and VCU is not to be slept on. I still like Davidson to win the A-10 tourney, however.

30. Central Florida (40th)

Johnny Dawkins’ squad finally made it in! Their best win is Alabama … who beat #4 Kentucky and only lost to #5 Tennessee by 3 on the road. The Knights have also bested Temple, another formidable opponent.

UCF’s worst loss was to Florida Atlantic (ranked 149th in NET). UCF also dropped one to 92nd ranked Missouri. Working in the Knights favor is the fact they are hot. The committee loves to grant opportunities to teams who get hot at the right time.

31. Oklahoma (38th)

32. Florida (33rd)

33. Temple (53rd)

34. Nebraska (39th)

Join me in attempting to figure out if Nebraska is good. Their best wins are Seton Hall, Indiana, and Minnesota – not shabby, right? Their losses to Rutgers and Illinois make those wins much less impressive.

Here is how I see it. Nebraska has 5 regular games remaining, 4 of which are against ranked teams (#15 Purdue, #7 Michigan, #10 Michigan St, and #21 Iowa).

The Huskers are going to receive the benefit of the doubt from the committee because they play in a stacked conference. If Nebraska wins 3 of 5, they are definitely in. 2 of 5 … maybe. If they lose out, we will look back and laugh because we thought they had a chance to dance and were woefully wrong.

35. Butler (49th)

36. Baylor (36th)

Baylor is now walking on eggshells after losing 3 of 4. They will have to scrap with Temple in the First Four just to get a First Round game against #20 VT – a far cry from where I had the Bears placed last time.

2019 NCAA Tournament Predictions – Biggest Snubs

In alphabetical order, here are the teams who just missed the cut for an at-large bid.

1. Arizona (87th)

2. Clemson (42nd)

3. Furman (45th)

VCU all over again. A team I totally wrote off keeps winning, has a good NET ranking, and is putting some pressure on the committee. I will be the first to admit I was wrong.

4. Ohio St (44th)

Ohio St was hanging on by a thread in my last predictions, claiming the final spot. Teams in that position cannot afford to lose to Illinois, but that is exactly what the Buckeyes went out and did.

5. Saint Mary’s (CA) (47th)

6. South Carolina (94th)

The Gamecocks have a short list of very nice wins but a separate list of games they wish everyone would forget. SC has beaten three future at-large bid recipients: Florida, Mississippi St, and Auburn. Their losses include Stony Brook, Wyoming, and Oklahoma St.

South Carolina has 6 remaining regular season games. Go 5-1 and we can talk dance.

7. Southern California (88th)

8. Utah St (34th)

The Aggies are a peculiar case. Their NET ranking is extremely high given they have not beaten anyone.

Here is a list of the teams Utah St has beaten in the 2018-19 season: Montana St, Hartford. Mississippi Valley, Utah Valley, Saint Mary’s, Northern Iowa, UC Irvine, Weber St, ASU Hornets, Eastern Oregon, Air Force, Wyoming, San Jose St, Colorado St, UNLV, and Fresno St.

How many of those teams are in the NET top-100? 2.

I do not see the Aggies receiving an invitation to the dance when their best wins are Saint Mary’s and Fresno St.

2019 NCAA Tournament Predictions – Bracket Analysis

Once I had the 68-team field set and ranked, all that was left was to divide the teams into realistic regions (all while avoiding conference matchups in the First Four and First Round, of course).

Once again, I decided that taking a picture of a physical copy of my bracket would be more efficient and easier on the eyes than poring through a list of names and numbers. Pro tip: downloading the picture will allow for better viewing. Here it is!

 

It is so exciting to look at all the fun matchups, paths to the Final Four, popular upset picks, etc. Here are my 3 biggest takeaways from my third bracket prediction.

#1 – Gonzaga has the Easiest Path to the Final Four, as They Should

As my #1 overall seed, the Bulldogs have (on paper) the easiest path to the Final Four. Their 8-9 opponent in the Second Round of the West region will be either Minnesota or Arizona St.

After that, Gonzaga’s most likely Sweet 16 matchups would be against either 4-seed Marquette or 5-seed Texas Tech. On the other end of the West, the 2-seed is Nevada while the 3 is Houston. Both of these squads, while talented, are extremely unproven on the national stage.

#2 – The East, South, and Midwest are Equally Stacked

The committee (me!) did a great job balancing the regions here. In the East, 1-seed Duke could have an early run-in with conference foes NCST or VT. The 4-seed Buffalo is not a name that scares many people, but the potential Elite 8 matchups sound like classics.

With a 2-seed of Kansas and a 3-seed of Michigan St, I would say Duke has their work cut out for them.

It might even get tougher in the South. 1-seed Kentucky will await the winner of Kansas St and Ole Miss in the Second Round with Florida St and Purdue lurking in the wings after that.

A region with 2-seed Virginia, 3-seed UNC, 6-seed Auburn, 7-seed Texas, and 10-seed Alabama (who beat Kentucky earlier this season) ensure that there will be no easy advances for any team.

Finally, the Midwest. The region with 3 of last year’s Final Four teams. 1-seed Michigan can look forward to conference foe Wisconsin or defending champion Villanova as possible Sweet 16 matchups.

6-seed Iowa St has shown flashes of greatness while 3-seed LSU has beaten Kentucky on the road. 2-seed Tennessee is arguably a 1-seed in disguise. I almost forgot the third member of last year’s Final Four: Sister Jean and the 14-seed Loyola Ramblers.

#3 – I Spy a Couple of Awesome Intrastate First Round Matchups

Virginia-Norfolk St: The 2-15 matchup in the South, the Spartans have to be licking their chops to get a shot at the state’s big dawg.

Louisville-Murray St: A relatively unknown school from Kentucky clashes with a school they likely try to emulate.

Auburn-UCF: Okay, so this one is not intrastate, but how cool would a 2018 Peach Bowl rematch be on the hardwood? Ball don’t lie. Right, Auburn?

I cannot wait until March 17th! See you on top, boppers!