Super Bowl XVII Preview, Forecast, and Picks: A Point-Total Wager Against the Public With Bonus Fantasy Predictions

The bookmakers of Las Vegas (and New York) can pat themselves on the back prior to Super Bowl 57. Sportsbook lines for the Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs have been almost surprisingly stuck-in-place ever since Philadelphia opened as a slight moneyline and point-spread favorite at FanDuel about 10 days ago.

NFL gamblers, according to statistics, are hedging toward the Chiefs – ironic given the “known quantity” aspect of Philly’s opening odds to win. It’s anyone’s guess how Andy Reid’s club will cope with facing the devilish Eagles, who blew out the NFC’s best in a scintillating run through the playoffs, given the sprained-ankle of QB Pat Mahomes.

Remember that Reid has coached in 3 total Super Bowls, and only a single time did the West Coast offense guru have a healthy quarterback at his disposal. Donovan McNabb fell sick with exhaustion and nausea in the Eagles’ unsuccessful Super Bowl bid under Reid, and in Super Bowl 55, the coach’s vaunted Chiefs fared even worse with a hobbled Mahomes.

To be able to bring about a victory such as Kansas City enjoyed the February prior, Reid—who must also deal with a thinner corps of running backs than expected—must find a way to make KC’s offense work in a traditional NFL style without Mahomes’ explosive scrambling and option-carry threats against the top defense to come out of the NFC East in some time.

WagerBop’s Picks and Predictions for Super Bowl LVII

WagerBop is asking blog readers to take a leap of faith, because this scroll already whiffed on its first NFL championship “prediction” of the year. Our expectation was that Philadelphia’s moneyline odds could take a sharp turn shorter (and more expensive) due to how the gambling public perceives slight-favorite scenarios in big NFL contests.

The Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) Super Bowl 57 point spread appears to ask users whether the Eagles are destined for a comfortable victory or a close call. But Kansas City’s final drive would have appeared much the same (and just as controversial) if the Chiefs had been down by 2 points instead of deadlocked with the Cincinnati Bengals, and needing a field goal to win and avoid defeat. By the same token, if Philly’s own MVP-level quarterback produces a long sideline pass to net a 1st-down-and-goal with 2:00 left in Super Bowl 57, a “comfortable” final kick to seal the comeback and triumph by a score such as 31-30 could still leave ATS bettors lost. The scenario for moneyline picks is simpler of course, giving favorites’ gamblers a far simpler deal with a payoff if the Iggles win by any score.

However, the public is known to disregard subtle odds when it comes to the Super Bowl. Recreational users want to pick the winner of the Lombardi Trophy, then brag they called it right, far more than they are interested in scientific picks to benefit their stake. For that reason, and because Eagles-to-win certainly isn’t the worst pick of FanDuel’s main Super Bowl markets this season, we expected Philadelphia’s odds to win to grow steeper.

Alternately, Philly’s odds to win have shifted right along with the unpopular point-spread action on HC Nick Sirianni’s squad, with the club now drawing just a (-122) line to win. We are intrigued as to whether the public has it called correctly that Reid has learned winning tactics in games in which Mahomes isn’t at his swiftest on the move. But regretfully, it’s not the best market to hone in on when looking for a pick for this winter’s Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Point-Total Pick: Honing-in on a Changing Market

Super Bowl 57’s opening Over/Under line of (49.5) represented a ton of respect for both defenses. KC’s defense may not be as vaunted as Pat Mahomes’ offense, or the team’s speedy special teams, but it rose to the occasion at Arrowhead Stadium last weekend, stumping Cincinnati on its final drive to set up Mahomes’ tie-breaking heroics. The Philly pass rush simply knocked out QB Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers on Championship Sunday, turning the 2nd half academic as the 49ers finished the season in possession of 4 injured quarterbacks; the only pilot left standing was 36 y/o journeyman Josh Johnson.

However, with the O/U line for Super Bowl Sunday having swelled to (50.5) total points at FanDuel Sportsbook and elsewhere, the alternative main-market line movement compels close examination for a potential “against the public” pick on the low side. Recall that 2 of the last 4 Super Bowl games have turned into showcases for at least 1 defense, and in the case of 2019’s final contest between New England and Los Angeles, both defenses unexpectedly shined. Why then is the O/U number growing in pregame if speculators are worried about how a hobbled Pat Mahomes will fare against the Eagles’ pass rush?

The Eagles’ rush defense has not been spectacular. In fact, there have been weeks this season when Kansas City’s supposed “finesse” defense stuffed the run with every bit as much urgency as the wildly-successful ’22-23 Eagles. That is good news for “Under” bettors on both counts. Reid’s going to try to procure a steady, churning run game to counteract Philly’s awesome rush, and could have some success doing it. On the Philly side, a natural coach’s tendency to want to avoid turnovers in the opening half will keep Sirianni’s play-callers connected to the team’s prolific ground game, even if Hurts is on fire.

The Super Bowl’s PKs Harrison Butker and Jake Elliott are the cream of the crop in an NFL becoming filled with mechanically-accurate kickers. But consider that a game of field goals is not what those recreational gamblers have in mind when making picks on the “fun” side of the Over/Under. Mahomes’ lack of an 11-on-11 rushing threat that can score from the 20-yard line will make the Chiefs more methodical close to the pylons, and we also expect the Eagles to pound the rock on 1st and goal. The game clock won’t be Tecmo Bowl-ing.

Lastly, there are a number of “safety” outcomes in which FanDuel’s U(50.5) can pay off Sunday even if the prediction of cautious play-calling and 4th-down field goals is mistaken. In fact, there is more “missed prediction, winning pick” scenarios that could play out in favor of the (-105) odds on “Under” than the (-115) Super Bowl odds on “Over.”

Without a spritely QB, suppose the Chiefs look as inept as they did in Super Bowl 55. In that case, the Eagles’ resulting big lead will restrain Philadelphia’s point-scoring by the 4th quarter, even if Hurts and the team’s other offensive stars are playing like the league’s new MVPs of the 2020s. If Philly’s inexperience in tight playoff games causes a less-seasoned QB to toss interceptions to KC, then any subsequent short-field chances could certainly account for points-off-turnovers for Kansas City, and most likely, more of those Harrison Butker kicks. Yet Philadelphia will not be scoring TDs – or drawing up a 2nd half plan to pass the football 20+ times in 2 quarters – if Mahomes is spanking the up-and-comer soundly.

Even a high-scoring game featuring a lively 2:00 offense could result in an “Under” win on Super Bowl 57. Suppose that Jalen Hurts, having been bottled up in most of the game’s opening half, comes alive in the 2nd half and leads an Eagles comeback, finally going ahead 24-22 on a quick-strike TD with 3 minutes left to go in the contest. Would Kansas City try for an answer with a long pass of its own? Despite coach Reid’s regrettable tendency to ignore game-clock scenarios such as the one just described in regular-season action, it’s safe to deduce that Kansas City would be scared enough of Hurts’ skills in the 2-minute drill to attempt a methodical, balanced drive for points and end the game with a Butker kick.

Likewise, if Philly has a chance to produce a 7:00 drive full of Hurts’ option carries to beat KC 27-23, we can anticipate Philly will opt for game control instead of teeing up one of the AFC’s all-time great QBs for a retaliatory strike with minutes left on the clock, presuming of course that by then Mahomes would appear plenty healthy – and dangerous – to the Eagles.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (50.5)

Super Bowl XVII Bonus Picks: Fantasy Draft Picks at QB, RB, and PK

Conventionally, competing Fantasy GMs pick quarterbacks and WRs from the same team, hoping for mega-point boosts when their QB throws a TD pass to another Fantasy roster member. Super Bowl QBs Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles and Pat Mahomes of the opposing Kansas City Chiefs respectively have become as well-respected as any signal-callers in professional football. But that does not make the QB-WR draft picks conundrum any easier since through impressive playoff runs, each team’s WRs have been largely MIA.

If fruitful Super Bowl DFS picks are about finding players who will outplay their projections in the Greatest Show on Earth, then Super Bowl 57 is about predicting which team’s downfield passing game will come alive just in time for the end of a season.

Philadelphia signal-caller Jalen Hurts’ production has only dropped off a bit in Philly’s playoff run, but thanks to the obviated need to throw downfield passes in blow-out games, the QB’s wide receivers have practically fallen off the map. Hurts has accumulated over 300 yards and 4 TDs through 2 games, but not one of his WRs has topped even 100 yards so far.

Showing signs of life, Devonta Smith has grabbed 8 of his 13 targets for 97 yards and a score. A.J. Brown, who posted some of the best Fantasy numbers at his position in the regular season, has totaled a mere 50 yards in the playoffs and failed to score even once. If Smith and Brown do not step up their respective games for Super Bowl 57, Hurts may turn to TE Dallas Goedert or other receivers like Zach Pascal or Quez Watkins to move the football.

In spite of the severe ankle sprain he suffered in the Divisional Round, Patrick Mahomes has soldiered on to lead the Kansas City Chiefs to another Super Bowl berth. Through 2 playoff games, the former Texas Tech star has thrown for 521 yards and 4 TDs without a single interception. His receivers, though, have not been very helpful.

Just the former Green Bay Packer Marquez Valdez-Scantling has opened up the field for Mahomes by catching 7 passes for 122 yards and 2 TDs. However most of those Fantasy points came in the AFC Championship Game. Receivers Kadarius Toney, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Mecole Hardman have combined for less than 100 postseason receiving yards. If Philadelphia takes Travis Kelce out of the equation in Super Bowl 57, at least 2 of the aforementioned pass-catchers will have to step up and fill the holes.

Our blog’s NFL “Week 1” analysis of the Super Bowl match-up is that Philly, the game’s slight point-spread favorite, is blocking and tackling better than KC, but that Kansas City may have a few extra skill players who could loom large as explosive threats on Super Bowl Sunday. The main point of contention from an Eagles fan would be that Clyde Edwards-Helaire of the Chiefs is injured, while Philly’s tailback-by-committee approach can combine with a healthy Hurts’ mobility to befuddle Kansas City’s pass rush and produce a massive rushing and passing day. Yet if the Chiefs almost certainly won’t have a 100-yard rusher, and especially if Kansas City is destined to spend part of the game losing on the scoreboard, KC’s likely 350+ total yards are going to have to come from someplace.

A primo alternate route is to draft the expensive TE Travis Kelce along with Pat Mahomes, leaving room for a cheaper WR1 from the NFC team… if you can find one with a heartbeat.

Kansas City rookie Isiah Pacheco has continued to serve as the Chiefs’ workhorse this postseason with Clyde Edwards-Helaire still on the shelf. He has only received 22 carries through 2 games, however, he has collected 121 yards and averaged 5.5 yards per carry. The Rutgers alum has also caught 6 of his 7 targets for 65 yards. If Patrick Mahomes remains limited due to his ankle injury, Andy Reid could choose to feed Pacheco more than usual. Fantasy competitors should also note the presence of backup Jerick McKinnon, who could take on a more significant role in Super Bowl 57 if Pacheco struggles to break through the Philadelphia front line.

Philly has employed an RB-by-committee approach to great effect. Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell have combined for 292 yards and 3 scores on the ground in just 2 contests. What’s more, Boston Scott has taken his 12 carries for 53 yards and 2 more TDs. While the committee worked wonders for Philly, it can also put DFS competitors in a bind. Sanders and Gainwell both detract from each other’s Fantasy potential, and Scott can lower both of their potential stat lines by poaching TDs.

There is no denying Kansas City will have the advantage at tight end when Super Bowl 57 kicks off at the Big Toaster. Travis Kelce has been a menace in these playoffs, racking up 21 receptions for 176 yards and 3 TDs in just 2 games. The ankle injury could curtail Patrick Mahomes’ Fantasy production in the Super Bowl, as could double-team coverage that Philadelphia could potentially throw at him, But Kelce has already proven he can overcome such obstacles on the big stage. There are few more reliable players to add to a Fantasy roster in February. Dallas Goedert has produced more modest numbers in the 2022-23 postseason, however, that does not mean Daily Fantasy competitors should overlook him. Across Philadelphia’s 2 games, the South Dakota State product has snagged 10 of his 11 targets from Jalen Hurts for 81 yards and a score. Goedert may not stretch the field often, but in Super Bowl 57, he could serve as Hurts’ security blanket if the young QB struggles to find his footing. Gamers should expect the veteran TE to see at least a few quality Red Zone targets regardless. It’s up to readers whether or not to spend big $ on a tight end.

Kansas City’s Harrison Butker and Philadelphia’s Jake Elliott already own 1 ring apiece, and the 2-star kickers will be gunning for another in Super Bowl 57. Both rank within the top 5 at their position in DFS points and in these playoffs neither player has missed a single kick.

Butker, this postseason, has made all 5 of his field goal attempts and all 5 XPs. Actually, the Georgia Tech alum has not missed a field goal since Week 17 or an extra point since Week 15. In Super Bowl 54, he put forth a perfect outing by nailing his lone field goal and all 4 of his extra points. Elliott has not truly been tested this postseason, seeing as the longest of the 2 field goals he has netted came from 31 yards out. However, so far in the 2022-23 postseason, the 6th-year pro also drilled all 9 of the extra points he has attempted. Elliot, in the regular season, made 20 of his 23 attempts, and he has not missed one since Week 15. In Super Bowl 52, the Memphis alum made all 3 of his field goal attempts and 2 of his 3 extra points.

The 2023 early playoff rounds had their special-teams episodes and PK snafus, but a bevy of 3-pointers could assault the uprights in Super Bowl 57. WagerBop predicts that the Chiefs’ offense will look more likely “between the 20s,” while the Eagles could wind up gambling for TDs in the Red Zone, relying on Hurts’ dual-threat capabilities.

WagerBop’s Super Bowl Fantasy Picks: Pat Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Harrison Butker