Steelers at Ravens Odds: Predictions on NFL Playoff Bids in Week 17

I maintain that legalized betting comes with a lot of positives for the sporting culture, and among them is observing how people think when money is on the line.

Loyal readers know that this handicapper gets quite upset when reading descriptions of NFL players like “sucks” and “pathetic.” It’s not that I think such shock-value punditry suffers any real illusions as to the quality of all NFL athletes – my personal Twilight Zone fantasy booking would involve a fatso pub-crawler from Green Bay scheduled to play 1-on-1 vs Mitch Trubisky at Soldier Field – but the language involved gives new fans the idea that a “bad” NFL player is less than a garden-variety prep cog. NFL scouts who talk in terms of “excellent” vs “horrible” are comparing planets in a galaxy far, far away from Friday night lights, or even Saturday pom-poms.

So when an “awesome” or a “dope” NFL team plays a “terrible” or a “horrible” NFL team, or when a “crappy 2-bit” (read: .500) NFL club plays a bunch of “scrubs” (read: 2nd-stringers on an NFL club), it’s time for the public to put exaggerated smears (and hyperbolic exaltation) to the test. Does that motormouth at the water cooler really believe the Giants will lose by 4 touchdowns on Sunday? A glance at his betting record would answer that question in 4 seconds. Probably no, he doesn’t.

Looking at the odds and line-movement for a host of Week 17 games in weird circumstances, it’s clear that the public doesn’t think “awesome” is so great and isn’t sold on “horrible” being all that bad. Trubisky is a moneyline favorite over Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings, thanks to the Norsemen having lost to Green Bay and thus becoming a shoo-in Wild Card berth. The point spread has remained in single digits for the Chargers’ trudge to meet the Chiefs (-9) at Arrowhead Stadium, the the Giants and Eagles are right back where they belong – handicapped at just over a field goal’s margin despite vastly disparate W/L records and circumstances.

Mostly it appears that NFL bookmakers and gamblers have combined to give out too many “reputation” points, or weight attached to a franchise brand and banner. The Baltimore Ravens could probably beat the Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points if they had to, but the potentially postseason-eligible Steelers will meet an exhibition-roster version of the Ravens this week. Yet the spread for the scrum in Baltimore is tight, indicating that Las Vegas thinks Pittsburgh – among the best-coached teams in the league – could find ways to screw up against backups in the 2nd half, or fall too far behind in a ceremonial 1st quarter.

After all of the stats and analysis of 16 weeks, is it time for common sense?

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore (+2) is a fascinating club to watch no matter who is on the field. Lamar Jackson is outstanding, but an offense with 2 distinct personalities is never boring.

Week 16’s revenge bout with Cleveland flashed both faces of Baltimore’s attack. Jackson had been allowed to open things up against New York in a prime-time Week 15 romp, and Harbaugh kept on the same track against the Browns. While the eye associates wide-open, 4-WR pigskin with spectacular collisions and injuries, the head coach probably figured getting the ball out of Jackson’s hand quickly was the best way to keep the MVP front-runner healthy for the postseason. But when Cleveland scored to close the gap early in the 4th quarter, the Ravens went into their patented “Sun Belt” offense and ran every single play on a clinching TD drive.

Which face of Baltimore’s diabolical playbook will surface against visiting Pittsburgh in Week 17? The answer might tell us which bet on the board makes sense.

John Harbaugh has taken the unorthodox step of telling the media he’s going to be resting players on Sunday. Jackson will not suit up, and joining him on the sidelines (at least) will be Marshall Yanda, Earl Thomas, Mark Ingram and Brandon Williams. Former Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III will be under center for Baltimore, marking the only time in NFL history that 2 former Heisman-winning quarterbacks have started for the same team in the same season.

Baltimore is averaging 204.9 rushing yards per game, and is closing in on the all-time record of 3,165 rushing yards set by the 1978 New England Patriots. We can expect plenty of running from RGIII and Gus Edwards, but what kind of running plays the Ravens employ will be crucial to setting the record and scoring points.

Steeler fans have seen happier times even as all marvel at the coaching staff. While the QB carousel of Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges continues, the Steelers have now lost back-to-back games after winning 7-of-8 to get into contention, including a miserable 16-10 defeat to the pitiful New York Jets. Hodges had played like the big man on campus, giving the town hope while Pittsburgh struggled to replace Ben Roethelisberger. But after just 1 touchdown and 6 interceptions during the current 2-game skid, Hodges was replaced with Rudolph in the 2nd half of the Jets game. Tomlin wasted no time this week in stating Hodges will start once again on Sunday.

Bookmakers were crazy to give Baltimore the original point-spread nod. Pittsburgh at Baltimore is going to be like a 3rd-week preseason game in which 1 head coach goes mad and decides to win at all costs, while the opponent becomes less and less interested. RG III could have a heartening day and still lose the game as his supporting cast takes a seat in favor of rookies.

Pick: Steelers (-2) 

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Fans learn to cope when an NFL club is always around .500, vying for a Wild Card berth as the Tennessee Titans (-6) are this Sunday in Houston. One problem is that whenever you want a fellow .500 team to lose to a division-leading contender, it seems like a sure thing until you tune-in on Sunday or Monday night and there’s Tom Brady in a baseball cap watching the 2nd string get blown-out by the 1st string of the club your team is chasing. Might Tennessee benefit from the flip-side of that syndrome this weekend at NRG Stadium? If Houston has little to play for, the Texans might be in the mood to give the Titans a break. Gamblers have noticed, yanking a near-pick’em opening line to a TD’s edge in favor of the Week 17 visitors.

It has been a successful but bruising season of pigskin in Space City. Houston has won 2 straight and 4-of-5 contests, but 5 of 10 Texans wins this season have been decided by just 3 points or less. The AFC South champions clinched the division in last week’s 23-20 victory over Tampa Bay as a 27-yard interception return for a touchdown by Bradley Roby on Jameis Winston’s maiden pass of the game set the tone.

The Titans have lost 2 straight after winning 4 in a row, but Tennessee still controls its own Wild Card destiny. What the team can’t control is the hamstring of 25-year-old running back Derrick Henry. The former Alabama star played through the ailment against Houston 2 weeks ago posting just 86 yards on 21 carries, which snapped a stretch of 4 straight 100-yard games. Henry missed last weeks 38-28 loss to the Saints, but reports indicate he will be ready to return to action on Sunday.

Ryan Tannehill threw for 3 more touchdowns last week with 0 interceptions in a losing effort, and he has now had multiple touchdown passes in 6 straight games. Mike Vrabel made the correct move to make the switch from Marcus Mariota after a 2-6 start. Tannehill is 6-3 with good passing numbers and 4 rush TDs.

The only question here is whether Tennessee is competent enough to take advantage of a team resting its starters, and with a veteran QB at the helm, the answer is yes.

Pick: Titans ATS

I’ll turn our 3rd pick for Week 17 over to loyal NFL scout Chris Aliperto…

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

With a win against the 4-11 Giants in East Rutherford on Sunday, Philadelphia will clinch the NFC East and host a playoff game. The Eagles are currently on a 3-game winning streak, with all 3 wins coming against divisional opponents. In the first meeting between these teams 3 weeks ago, Philly battled back from a 17-3 halftime deficit to push the game to OT, eventually coming out with the 23-17 victory.

Pat Shurmer’s squad has been able to win back-to-back games, albeit against the Redskins and the Dolphins who are a combined 7-23. In last week’s 41-35 OT win against Washington, Saquon Barkley went off, basically rising from the dead it seems, rattling off 189 rushing yards and adding 90 receiving. QB Daniel Jones racked up 352 passing yards with 5 touchdowns, and while the offense is showing promise, the defense needs a ton of help.

In a comeback win in the first meeting, Eagles tight end Zach Ertz posted a 9-91-2 stat line and was an instrumental target for Carson Wentz down the stretch. Unfortunately, Ertz has been playing for some time through an injury to his ribs and has been ruled out for round 2 of this match-up on Sunday. With an already depleted WR corps, expect Wentz to rely heavily on his other tight end Dallas Goedert, who racked up 91 yards and a score on 9 catches and 12 targets last week against the Cowboys. On the positive side of the injury front, RB Jordan Howard is slated to return from his shoulder injury, but he may have to take a back seat to the emerging rookie 2nd round pick Miles Sanders. WR Nelson Agholor is still not expected back, however, meaning J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Greg Ward Jr. are expected to lead to WR corps once again.

Considering the Giants are scoring some points, and Barkley finally proved to me he is 100% after his performance last week, I think New York puts up a fight early in a see-saw battle, with the Eagles pulling ahead late.

Pick: Eagles (-4.5) 

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

You know I prefer to keep predictions short and sweet at the end of columns if possible. The Silver & Black is a (+150) moneyline underdog as the only club which can conceivably walk out of Mile High on Sunday with a playoff bid. That’s curious.

Not that Oakland’s bid isn’t the longest of long shots. Gruden’s gang would have to win (of course) while the Titans, Steelers, and Jaguars (don’t ask) lose their games. It’s like a Sunday “parlay” that the Raiders are hoping to hit the jackpot on.

And yes, the Denver Broncos and the Bronco fan base are obsessed with playing spoiler in this kind of scenario against a hated AFC West rival. But the Broncos are simply a ghost team right now, unsettled at QB and a cast in-audition at several key spots. Drew Lock had a better day against the Lions last week because all conditions sat well for him against a team his OL could block.

Oakland is much more of a live, breathing beast. Schedule synchronicity with so many crucial games occurring at 4 PM EST this Sunday will ensure that the Raiders still think they’re in the hunt at kickoff time.

Expect a rougher day for Lock even in the friendly chill of home…and an 8-8 Raider team still improving right on schedule.

Pick: Raiders to win