State of the NFL After Week 4

The 2020 NFL season began 4 weeks ago and it’s time to take a step back and see where we’re at. Top teams can already begin looking forward to the postseason while 0-4 teams may want to line up their draft picks for next year. Here is a little taste of what the first 4 weeks have offered NFL viewers.

I cite FiveThirtyEight often in this piece. Their NFL Prediction tools are fun to play around with. For each NFL team, I list the % chance that FiveThirtyEight gives of that team reaching the 2020 postseason.

Several factors determine a team’s shot of qualifying for postseason football – including current record, remaining strength of schedule, health of star players, and strength of division. All 32 NFL teams are still mathematically alive and will be getting a break down. Let’s go!

Buffalo Bills 4-0

Best Win: 30-23 win @ 2-2 Raiders 

Worst Loss: None

What They Do Well: The Bills’ offense is rolling – ranking ahead of big-name teams like Kansas City, Cleveland, and New Orleans. Buffalo averages 409.8 yards per game – the 4th-most in the NFL.

What They Do Poorly: The Bills allow a lot of passing yards. Buffalo has given up 280.3 yards through the air per game. This ranks 27th in the NFL. It hasn’t affected Buffalo’s record, however, which remains unblemished through 4 weeks.

538 Playoff %: 88%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: BUF (-8.5) @ TEN

New England Patriots 2-2

Best Win: 36-20 win vs 2-2 Raiders

Worst Loss: Both losses to 4-0 teams. No bad losses.

What They Do Well: Run the ball. The addition of Cam Newton has added another dimension to Bill Belichick’s offense. At 179.8 rushing yards per game – the Patriots are the second-best rushing team in the NFL this year.

What They Do Poorly: New England struggles to stop the run. Their 115.3 rushing yards allowed per game ranks 17th in the league. While this is not horrible, the Pats have been much better in this stat in the past.

538 Playoff %: 61%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: NE (-6) vs DEN

Miami Dolphins 1-3

Best Win: Only win. 31-13 win @ 1-3 Jaguars

Worst Loss: 21-11 loss @ 2-2 Patriots

What They Do Well: The Dolphins force a lot of fumbles. They have recovered 3 through 4 games this year which is tied for 6th in the NFL. Miami has not lost a fumble all year, giving them an excellent fumble differential.

What They Do Poorly: Miami struggles to put up points. The Fins are averaging just 23.3 points per game – the 9th-lowest mark in the league. In a tough division, Miami will need to figure their offense out quickly or will get buried.

538 Playoff %: 7%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: MIA (+13) @ SF

New York Jets 0-4

Best Win: None

Worst Loss: 36-7 loss @ 3-1 Colts 

What They Do Well: The Jets have lost just 1 fumble this season through 4 games. This is tied for 7th in the NFL in least fumbles lost. Of all the ways to lose football games, fumbles are the most infuriating … so at least New York is doing something right.

What They Do Poorly: The Jets can’t move the ball. New York ranks last (tied with the other New York) in yards gained per game with 278. No wonder they can’t win.

538 Playoff %: <1%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: NYJ (+8.5) @ ARI

Philadelphia Eagles 1-2-1

Best Win: Only win. 25-20 win @ 2-2 49ers

Worst Loss: 27-17 loss @ 1-3 Washington

What They Do Well: The Eagles boast a good defense. Philadelphia has allowed just 352.3 yards per game through 4 weeks this season. This ranks 10th in football. Their top-10 defense gets no support from the offense, however, and Philly struggles to win games.

What They Do Poorly: Philly can’t move the football. With only 319 yards gained per game, the Eagles rank 28th in the NFL in this category.

538 Playoff %: 37%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: PHI (+7) @ PIT

Washington Football Team 1-3

Best Win: Only win. 27-17 win vs 1-2-1 Eagles

Worst Loss: 30-15 loss @ 2-2 Cardinals

What They Do Well: You can’t pass against Washington. The Re*****s allow the 4th-fewest passing yards in the NFL with just 208.5 per game. The only teams ahead of Washington in this stat? Indianapolis, San Francisco, and Kansas City. A real who’s who. We’ll see if Washington can maintain this strong defensive performance.

What They Do Poorly: The Re*****s can’t move the ball. Washington’s 301.8 yards per game rank 30th in the league. The NFC East contains the best offense in football (Dallas) along with 2 of the worst 3 (Giants and Washington).

538 Playoff %: 12%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: WAS (+5.5) vs LAR

Dallas Cowboys 1-3

Best Win: Only win. 40-39 win vs 0-4 Falcons

Worst Loss: 49-38 loss vs 3-1 Browns

What They Do Well: Dallas averages the most yards per game in the NFL with 509.5. Despite the league’s best offense, the Cowboys are 1-3. This is because most of these yards come in the second half of games in which the ‘Boys trail and the opposition is playing “bend don’t break” defense.

What They Do Poorly: The defense in Dallas is swiss cheese-esque this year. The Cowboys allow 430.5 yards per game – the 3rd-most in the NFL. This explains how a team with the best offense in the league can be 1-3.

538 Playoff %: 57%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: DAL (-7.5) vs NYG

New York Giants 0-4

Best Win: None.

Worst Loss: 36-9 loss vs 2-2 49ers

What They Do Well: New York plays good defense. The Giants allow just 328.3 yards per game – the 5th-best mark in the league. Too bad their offense is terrible.

What They Do Poorly: The Giants can’t move the ball. New York ranks last (tied with the other New York) in yards gained per game with 278. No wonder they can’t win.

538 Playoff %: 5%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: NYG (+7.5) @ DAL

Seattle Seahawks 4-0

Best Win: 35-30 win vs 2-2 Patriots

Worst Loss: None.

What They Do Well: Led by MVP-candidate Russell Wilson, the Seahawks’ offense is prolific. Seattle averages 416.3 yards per game – the 3rd-most in the league. Hard to beat a team who can consistently move the ball.

What They Do Poorly: Despite a 4-0 record, Seattle has the worst defense in the league. The Seahawks allow 476.8 yards per game – the most in football. More props to Russell Wilson for carrying this defense.

538 Playoff %: 92%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: SEA (-9) vs MIN

Los Angeles Rams 3-1

Best Win: 37-19 win @ 1-2-1 Eagles

Worst Loss: Only loss. 35-32 loss @ 4-0 Bills. Not a bad loss.

What They Do Well: Run the football. The Rams currently rank 7th among all NFL team in rushing yards per game with 142.3.

What They Do Poorly: The Rams give up plenty of yards on the ground. LA ranks 18th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game with 123.5.

538 Playoff %: 72%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: LAR (-5.5) @ WAS

Arizona Cardinals 2-2

Best Win: 30-15 win vs 1-3 Washington

Worst Loss: 26-23 loss vs 1-3 Lions

What They Do Well: As teams with mobile quarterbacks tend to be, the Cardinals are excellent at picking up yards on the ground. With 144.5 rushing yards per game, Arizona ranks 6th in the league in this category. A strong running game never goes out of style.

What They Do Poorly: Arizona allows a lot of rushing yards. 124.5 yards per game allowed on the ground ranks 19th in the NFL.

538 Playoff %: 25%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: ARI (-8.5) @ NYJ

San Francisco 49ers 2-2

Best Win: 36-9 win @ 0-4 Giants

Worst Loss: 25-20 loss vs 1-2-1 Eagles

What They Do Well: Score points. Despite the massive injury list in San Fran, the 49ers have hung in there and put points up on the board each week. San Francisco ranks 11th in the league in points scored per game with 26.8.

What They Do Poorly: The 49ers do not force a lot of turnovers. Their 5 takeaways through 4 games is tied for 14th in the NFL. Also, injuries are devastating the 49ers this year.

538 Playoff %: 47%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: SF (-13) vs MIA

Kansas City Chiefs 4-0

Best Win: 34-20 win @ 3-1 Ravens

Worst Loss: None.

What They Do Well: A lock to be toward the top of the league in offense every year, the Chiefs currently rank 5th in the league in yards gained per game with 405.8. While 4 teams have gained more yards than Kansas City this year, no teams have won more football games.

What They Do Poorly: Not too much. They’re great.

538 Playoff %: >99%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: KC (-12.5) vs LV

Las Vegas Raiders 2-2

Best Win: 34-24 win vs 2-2 Saints

Worst Loss: 36-20 loss @ 2-2 Patriots

What They Do Well: The Raiders can score points. Gruden is finally getting results and his man at QB – Derek Carr – is playing excellent football. Vegas is tied with Tampa Bay for 9th in the NFL in points scored per game with 27.8.

What They Do Poorly: The Raiders have only forced 2 turnovers this season. This is the second-lowest mark in the NFL. Only Houston has forced fewer turnovers (0) through 4 weeks.

538 Playoff %: 29%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: LV (+12.5) @ KC

Denver Broncos 1-3

Best Win: Only win. 37-28 win @ 0-4 Jets

Worst Loss: 28-10 loss vs 3-1 Buccaneers

What They Do Well: Had to search long and hard to find something this team does well. The Broncos average the 4th-most yards per punt return (13.7) this year through 4 weeks.

What They Do Poorly: The Broncos struggle to move the ball. Denver ranks 29th in the NFL in yards gained with 306.8 per game.

538 Playoff %: 15%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: DEN (+6) @ NE

Los Angeles Chargers 1-3

Best Win: Only win. 16-13 win @ 1-2-1 Bengals

Worst Loss: 38-31 loss @ 3-1 Buccaneers

What They Do Well: The Chargers are 1 of just 6 teams in the NFL to average over 400 yards of offense per game through Week 4 this year. At 400.3 yards per game, the Chargers are ranked just ahead of their LA counterpart for 6th-most yards gained in the NFL.

What They Do Poorly: The Chargers gain a lot of yards but they cannot score. The Bolts are putting up just 20.8 points per game this year – the 6th-lowest mark in football.

538 Playoff %: 8%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: Bye Week

Pittsburgh Steelers 3-0

Best Win: 26-16 win @ 0-4 Giants

Worst Loss: None.

What They Do Well: The Steelers play excellent team defense. Allowing just 290 yards per game, Pittsburgh boasts the 2nd-best defense in the league (only Indy is better). The Steelers play the Colts in December. I’m expecting a 6-3 game.

What They Do Poorly: The Steelers struggle to move the ball through the air. Pittsburgh ranks 19th in the NFL in passing yards gained per game with 242.3.

538 Playoff %: 80%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: PIT (-7) vs PHI

Baltimore Ravens 3-1

Best Win: 38-6 win vs 3-1 Browns

Worst Loss: Only loss. 34-20 loss vs 4-0 Chiefs. Not a bad loss.

What They Do Well: Running the football. The Ravens blew every other NFL team out of the water in rushing last year, but are 3rd in the league this year with 160.8 per game. Lamar is nearly impossible to stop. Opposing teams can only hope to contain him.

What They Do Poorly: Baltimore is having a very difficult time throwing the football this year. The Ravens rank 31st in the NFL in passing yards per game with 180.8.

538 Playoff %: 87%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: BAL (-14) vs CIN

Cleveland Browns 3-1

Best Win: 49-38 win @ 1-3 Cowboys

Worst Loss: Only loss. 38-6 loss @ 4-0 Ravens. No shame in losing to Baltimore, but Cleveland got blown out.

What They Do Well: Cleveland is the best rushing team in the NFL. The only team averaging north of 200 yards per game on the ground – Cleveland ranks 1st in the league with 204.5.

What They Do Poorly: Cleveland can’t pick up yards through the air this year. The Browns rank 30th in the NFL in passing yards per game with 182.5.

538 Playoff %: 63%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: CLE (-1) vs IND

Cincinnati Bengals 1-2-1

Best Win: Only win. 33-25 win vs 1-3 Jaguars

Worst Loss: 16-13 loss vs 1-3 Chargers

What They Do Well: Joe Burrow looks pretty solid … that’s good, I guess.

What They Do Poorly: Their head coach – Zac Taylor – seems like he’s not doing a great job.

538 Playoff %: 7%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: CIN (+14) @ BAL

Green Bay Packers 4-0

Best Win: 37-30 win @ 2-2 Saints

Worst Loss: None.

What They Do Well: The Packers can pick up yardage with the best of ’em. Green Bay averages 445.5 yards per game which ranks 2nd in the NFL behind Dallas. Dallas averages over 50 yards per game more than Green Bay, but has 3 fewer wins – the most important stat for any team.

What They Do Poorly: Not a lot to dislike here.

538 Playoff %: 95%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: Bye Week

Chicago Bears 3-1

Best Win: 27-23 win @ 1-3 Lions

Worst Loss: Only loss. 19-11 loss vs 3-1 Colts

What They Do Well: Comebacks! The Bears have overcome leads of at least 14 points in each of their 3 wins this season.

What They Do Poorly: Gain yards. How many 3-1 teams do you know that have benched their starting quarterback? The Bears have – probably because they gain only 323.2 yards per game – the 6th-lowest mark in the league.

538 Playoff %: 63%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: CHI (+5) vs TB

Minnesota Vikings 1-3

Best Win: Only win. 31-23 win @ 0-4 Texans

Worst Loss: 28-11 loss @ 3-1 Colts

What They Do Well: Minnesota can run the football. The Vikings have picked up 150.5 yards per game on the ground this season – 5th-most in the NFL. 4 of the top 5 rushing teams in football reside in the AFC or NFC North divisions … interesting.

What They Do Poorly: Minnesota doesn’t gain many yards through the air. The Vikings are averaging just 207.3 passing yards per game this year. This ranks 28th in the NFL.

538 Playoff %: 21%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: MIN (+9) @ SEA

Detroit Lions 1-3

Best Win: Only win. 26-23 win @ 2-2 Cardinals

Worst Loss: 42-21 loss @ 4-0 Packers. No shame in losing to Green Bay, but Detroit got blown out.

What They Do Well: It is pretty sad when this is your best asset, but the Lions average the most yards per punt return in the NFL this year (17.5). Thanks for the hard work, Jamal Agnew.

What They Do Poorly: We’re bad … very bad.

538 Playoff %: 9%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: Bye Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-1

Best Win: 28-10 win @ 1-3 Broncos

Worst Loss: Only loss. 34-23 loss @ 2-2 Saints

What They Do Well: The Bucs can score points. With Brady at the helm, we knew this would be the case. Tampa Bay ranks 9th in the NFL in points scored per game with 27.8.

What They Do Poorly: Tampa isn’t great at running the ball. The Bucs rank 25th in the NFL in rushing yards per game with 99.4.

538 Playoff %: 73%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: TB (-5) @ CHI

New Orleans Saints 2-2

Best Win: 34-23 win vs 3-1 Buccaneers

Worst Loss: 34-24 loss @ 2-2 Raiders

What They Do Well: Score points. Despite the 2-2 record, the Saints can run up the score. New Orleans averages 30.8 points per game which is tied for 5th-most in the league through 4 weeks.

What They Do Poorly: Brees can’t throw the deep ball. Every sports channel everywhere is saying this, so I’ll take the easy way out and repeat it.

538 Playoff %: 64%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: Bye Week

Carolina Panthers 2-2

Best Win: 31-21 win vs 2-2 Cardinals

Worst Loss: 31-17 loss @ 3-1 Buccaneers

What They Do Well: The combo of the Panthers secondary and pass rush is elite. Carolina is averaging just 227 pass yards per game through 4 weeks this year – the 7th-best mark in the NFL – even ahead of big-name defenses like New England, Chicago, and Pittsburgh.

What They Do Poorly: Surprisingly, Carolina doesn’t stink in any one area. A nitpicky weakness I found is that they only average 6 yards per return – the 10th-lowest mark in football.

538 Playoff %: 23%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: CAR (+7) @ ATL

Atlanta Falcons 0-4

Best Win: None.

Worst Loss: Toss-up between 40-39 blown lead @ 1-3 Cowboys and 30-26 blown lead vs 3-1 Bears

What They Do Well: Despite not winning, Matt Ryan is throwing it pretty well. The Falcons are a top-5 passing team, ranking 5th in the league in passing yards per game with 294.3. This puts Atlanta ahead of Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans in this stat. The Falcons are severely lacking in the “wins” stat, however.

What They Do Poorly: Protect leads.

538 Playoff %: 6%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: ATL (-7) vs CAR

Tennessee Titans 3-0

Best Win: 16-14 win @ 1-3 Broncos

Worst Loss: None.

What They Do Well: Derrick Henry is still a beast.

What They Do Poorly: They got COVID.

538 Playoff %: 79%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: TEN (+8.5) vs BUF

Indianapolis Colts 3-1

Best Win: 19-11 win @ 3-1 Bears

Worst Loss: Only loss.

What They Do Well: Indianapolis is playing the best defense in the league. The Colts are allowing just 236.3 yards per game – the best mark in the NFL. With stingy D like this, it is no wonder the Colts are near the top of the AFC standings.

What They Do Poorly: The Colts only gain 360.3 yards of offense per game. This ranks 21st in the league.

538 Playoff %: 68%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: IND (+1) @ CLE

Jacksonville Jaguars 1-3

Best Win: Only win. 27-20 win vs 3-1 Colts

Worst Loss: 31-13 loss vs 1-3 Dolphins

What They Do Well: This franchise is a mess. They don’t do much well.

What They Do Poorly: Jacksonville is known for their solid defense but struggles to put points up. The Jags are averaging just 23.8 points per game through 4 weeks this season – the 10th-lowest mark in the league.

538 Playoff %: 3%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: JAX (+9) @ HOU

Houston Texans 0-4

Best Win: None.

Worst Loss: 31-23 loss vs 1-3 Vikings

What They Do Well: Almost nothing. They stink.

What They Do Poorly: Houston can’t gain yards. 327.5 yards gained per game is unacceptable with a quarterback as talented as Deshaun Watson. This mark ranks 26th among all NFL teams through 4 weeks. We’ll see how the Texans bounce back with an interim head coach.

538 Playoff %: 5%

Week 5 Matchup/Line: HOU (-9) vs JAX