The 2020 NFL season began 11 weeks ago and it’s time to take a step back and see where we’re at. Top teams can already begin looking forward to the postseason while 0-10 team(s) may want to line up their draft picks for next year. Here is a little taste of what the first 11 weeks have offered NFL viewers.
I cite FiveThirtyEight often in this piece. Their NFL Prediction tools are fun to play around with. For each NFL team, I list the % chance that FiveThirtyEight gives of that team reaching the 2020 postseason.
Several factors determine a team’s shot of qualifying for postseason football – including current record, remaining strength of schedule, health of star players, and strength of division. 31 of the 32 NFL teams are still mathematically alive (Sorry, Jets), but all will be getting a break down. Let’s go!
Buffalo Bills 7-3
Best Win: 44-34 vs SEA
Worst Loss: 42-16 @ TEN
What They Do Well: The Bills rank 4th in the NFL in passing yards per game (278.9). Buffalo’s defense is adept at forcing turnovers – ranking 6th in the league with 16 takeaways through 10 games. Also … the Bills Mafia is great!
What They Do Poorly: The Bills cannot stop the run. Buffalo ranks 29th in the NFL with 135 rushing yards allowed per game. For reference, the leader in rushing yards allowed per game – Tampa – allows 73 per game.
538 Playoff %: 89%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: -4.5 vs LAC
Miami Dolphins 6-4
Best Win: 34-31 @ ARI
Worst Loss: 20-13 @ DEN
What They Do Well: The story in South Beach is the emergence of Alabama rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa. Relieving pressure from Tua is a Dolphins’ defense which ranks second in the NFL in takeaways (17 through 10 games). The Dolphins rarely shoot themselves in the foot with penalties – ranking third in the league in fewest penalty yards per game with 39.
Miami’s offense is always ahead of the chains and Tua has the luxury of many short fields thanks to his defense. Tua is a popular pick for 2020-21 Rookie of the Year.
What They Do Poorly: Miami’s defense can’t stop the run. The Fins rank 28th in the league in opponent rush yards per game (134.2). The top team in this category – Tampa – allows just 73 rush yards per game.
538 Playoff %: 33%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: -7 @ NYJ
New England Patriots 4-6 
Best Win: 23-17 vs BAL
Worst Loss: 27-20 @ HOU
What They Do Well: Bill Belichick has tools to run the football now. New England ranks 4th in the league in rushing yards per game (153.6). In typical Patriots fashion, this team does not make unforced errors. New England ranks 1st in the league in fewest penalty yards per game (35.8). For reference, the worst team in the league in penalty yardage – New Orleans – gives up 67.7 yards per game.
What They Do Poorly: The Patriots can now run the ball but at the expense of their passing game. New England has thrown for the fewest passing touchdowns in the league this season (6 in 10 games). Cam Newton has thrown 4 of those 6.
538 Playoff %: 8%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: +2 vs ARI
New York Jets 0-10
Best Win: None
Worst Loss: 24-0 @ MIA
What They Do Well: It’s difficult to find things that an 0-10 team does well, but New York is very stingy in the red zone. The Jets rank 5th in the league in defensive red zone TD% (52.5%).
What They Do Poorly: This section was much easier to research. New York ranks dead last in the NFL in both passing yards per game (170) and points per game (14.9). The Jets also hurt themselves with stupid penalties – ranking 29th in the league with 63.6 penalty yards per game.
538 Playoff %: Eliminated
Week 12 Matchup/Line: +7 vs MIA
Philadelphia Eagles 3-6-1
Best Win: 25-20 @ SF
Worst Loss: 27-17 @ NYG
What They Do Well: Here’s what the Eagles do well … they play in the NFC East. Although Philly would currently be dead last in other divisions, the Eagles are the favorites of the East and will likely host a playoff game with a losing record.
What They Do Poorly: The Eagles can’t stop the run. Philly ranks 26th in the league in opponent rushing yards per game (133.4). The Eagles also turn the ball over a lot – ranking 30th in the league in giveaways (20 through 10 games).
538 Playoff %: 35%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: +5.5 vs SEA
Washington (Re*****s) Football Team 3-7
Best Win: 25-3 vs DAL
Worst Loss: 30-10 vs LAR
What They Do Well: Washington is very stingy on defense. The Re*****s rank 8th in the league in opponent points per game (22.1) and 2nd league wide in defensive red zone touchdown percentage (48.4%).
What They Do Poorly: Washington doesn’t have much of an offense. The Re*****s rank 25th in the league in passing yards per game with 218.6. The team ranks 20th in rushing yards per game with 106.6. The lack of offense makes it difficult for Washington to put up points. The Re*****s rank 25th in the league in points per game with 21.9.
538 Playoff %: 18%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: +2.5 @ DAL
Dallas Cowboys 3-7
Best Win: 40-39 vs ATL
Worst Loss: 25-3 @ WAS
What They Do Well: The overall numbers would indicate Dallas is a good passing teams, but those stats are inflated by the Cowboy’s first 4 games. A look at the team’s passing yards per game indicates the Cowboys are no longer a prolific passing team.
What They Do Poorly: Dallas gives the ball away too much – ranking 31st in the league in giveaways (21). The Cowboys also cannot stop their opponents running game – ranking dead last in football with 156.4 rushing yards allowed. The leader in this category – Tampa – allows just 73 per game.
538 Playoff %: 23%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: -2.5 vs WAS
New York Giants 3-7
Best Win: 27-17 vs PHI
Worst Loss: 36-9 vs SF
What They Do Well: Defensively, New York is very solid. The Giants rank 6th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (100.9) while also ranking 6th in defensive red zone TD% (54.1%).
What They Do Poorly: New York can’t score. The Giants rank 30th in points per game (19.5).
538 Playoff %: 25%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: -6 @ CIN
Seattle Seahawks 7-3
Best Win: 28-21 vs ARI
Worst Loss: 23-16 @ LAR
What They Do Well: Seattle can score with the best of them. The Seahawks rank 2nd in the NFL in points per game with 31.8. It is easy for the Hawks to add on to their score throughout the game as Seattle is 1 of 2 teams yet to miss a field goal in 2020. Through 12 attempts, Seattle is perfect this year.
DIGGS WITH THE HUGE HIT #SEAHAWKS
Huge play stopped the drive on the next play!! pic.twitter.com/tE5EQE8PhD
— Sports ON Tap Seattle (@SONTSeattle) November 20, 2020
Seattle also boasts a vicious defense. The Seahawks allow no free yards – ranking 4th in the NFL in opponent rush yards per game (91.2).
What They Do Poorly: Seattle’s defense is very stingy on the ground but is swiss cheese through the air. The Seahawks are the easiest team to pass on in football – ranking 32nd in the NFL with 343.7 passing yards allowed per game.
538 Playoff %: 96%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: -5.5 @ PHI
Los Angeles Rams 7-3
Best Win: 27-24 @ TB
Worst Loss: 24-16 @ SF
What They Do Well: The Rams rank second in opponent points per game with 19.2. The Rams’ defense is powered by a terrific run stopping front which ranks 5th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game with 91.3.
LA can also move the ball. The Rams rank 5th in the NFL in offensive yards per game with 397.3.
What They Do Poorly: The Rams are yet to get a game changing play from a unit other than their offense this year. LA has recorded 0 non-offensive touchdowns in 2020.
538 Playoff %: 94%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: -6.5 vs SF
Arizona Cardinals 6-4
Best Win: 37-34 vs SEA
Worst Loss: 31-21 @ CAR
What They Do Well: The Cardinals have the best yardage offensive in the league – ranking 1st in yards gained per game with 414.3. Arizona’ best method of attack is their strong running game. The team ranks 2nd in football with 157.7 rush yards per contest.
What They Do Poorly: Arizona struggles to stop the run defensively. The Cardinals are allowing 124.7 rush yards per game which ranks 23rd in the league. Arizona squares off with New England – a great rushing team – this weekend. Look for the Patriots to run wild.
538 Playoff %: 63%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: -2 @ NE
San Francisco 49ers 4-6
Best Win: 33-6 @ NE
Worst Loss: 43-17 vs MIA
What They Do Well: Not much. San Fran is pretty mediocre. Their roster is too decimated for anyone to acknowledge them as a real threat anymore.
What They Do Poorly: The 49’ers love gifting the ball back to their opponents. San Francisco ranks 29th in the league in giveaways (17 through 10 games).
538 Playoff %: 11%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: +6.5 @ LAR
Kansas City Chiefs 9-1 
Hot Betting Trends: Kansas City heads to Denver this week – under-bettors take notice. The under is 0-4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games on the road.
538 Playoff %: 97%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 9.5-point favorites at Broncos (2-3)
“Where the Chiefs match up with Denver is their speed, and that could open things up in the running game.” @trentgreen10@CrownRoyal | #KCvsDEN pic.twitter.com/OWEclCtc32
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) October 23, 2020
Las Vegas Raiders 6-4
Hot Betting Trends: The Raiders are underdogs in Week 7 against Tampa Bay – which means the over is a good bet. The over is 4-0 in Vegas’ last 4 games as a dog. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 Raiders games.
538 Playoff %: 47%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 3-point underdogs hosting Buccaneers (4-2)
Denver Broncos 4-6
Hot Betting Trends: How does Denver typically deal with good teams? They slow the game down. The Broncos are home dogs – hosting the Chiefs in Week 7. The under is 9-2 in the last 11 games in which Denver was a home dog. This dates back to December of 2017.
538 Playoff %: 19%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 9.5-point underdogs hosting Chiefs (5-1)
Los Angeles Chargers 3-7
Hot Betting Trends: Despite a record of 1-4, Los Angeles is favored heavily in their Week 7 matchup versus the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars. The last time a 1-win team has been favored by more than a touchdown this late in the season was 2018. Before that it was 2008. 4 of the last 5 teams in this spot have won SU – so the Chargers ML is appealing this week. However, 4 of the last 5 have lost ATS – so fade the Chargers spread.
538 Playoff %: 7%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 7.5-point favorites hosting Jaguars (1-5)
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-0 
Hot Betting Trends: You think Vegas would catch on by now, but unders hitting all the time when Pittsburgh is a road favorite – as they are this week at Tennessee. Dating back to October of 2013, the under is 27-5-1 when Pittsburgh is a road favorite.
538 Playoff %: 93%
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 2-point favorites at Titans (5-0)
Cleveland Browns 7-3
Best Win: 32-23 vs IND
Worst Loss: 16-6 vs LV
What They Do Well: The Browns look pretty good this year. Cleveland ranks 2nd in the league in takeaways (17 through 10 games), 3rd in rush yards per game (156.8), and 8th in opponent rush yards per game (105).
What They Do Poorly: Cleveland has been known to give up yards and points. The Browns rank 21st in the league in passing yards allowed per game with 247.9. The team also ranks 19th in the league in points allowed per game with 26.1.
538 Playoff %: 69%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: -7 @ JAX
Baltimore Ravens 6-4
Best Win: 24-10 @ IND
Worst Loss: 23-17 @ NE
What They Do Well: The Ravens boast the league’s best rushing offense – ranking 1st in the NFL with 160.5 rush yards per game.
Hard-hitting Ravens football. 😤 @OfficialShon_4 pic.twitter.com/Wfa5N7QbzM
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) November 22, 2020
Coupled with Baltimore’s excellent running game is a defense which ranks 3rd in opponent points per game (19.5) and 2nd in non-offensive touchdowns (4 through 10 games).
What They Do Poorly: The Ravens struggle to move the ball through the air – ranking 31st in the league in passing yards per game with 183.4.
538 Playoff %: 72%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: +6 @ PIT
Cincinnati Bengals 2-7-1
Best Win: 31-20 vs TEN
Worst Loss: 20-9 @ WAS
What They Do Well: Not a lot.
What They Do Poorly: Cincinnati ranks 30th in football in rush yards allowed (136.2) and 29th in the league in defensive red zone TD% (71.1%). Also, the Bengals have 0 non-offensive touchdowns this year.
538 Playoff %: <1%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: +6 vs NYG
Green Bay Packers 4-1
Best Win: 34-17 @ SF
Worst Loss: 38-10 @ TB
What They Do Well: Green Bay ranks 3rd in the league in points per game (30.8) and is also tied for 3rd in the league in fewest giveaways (9 through 10 games). The Packers are 1 of 2 teams yet to miss a field goal in 2020 (13 attempts).
What They Do Poorly: The Packers’ defense does not generate takeaways – ranking 30th in the NFL with 9.
538 Playoff %: 96%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: -9.5 vs CHI
Coming off a tough overtime loss to Indianapolis, Aaron Rodgers had some words for MVS haters out there.
Week 7 Matchup/Line: 4-point favorites at Texans (1-5)
Chicago Bears 5-5
Best Win: 20-19 vs TB
Worst Loss: 19-13 vs MIN
What They Do Well: The defense is alive and well in Chicago. The Bears rank 1st in football with a 44.1% defensive red zone TD%.
What They Do Poorly: Chicago can’t move the football efficiently. The Bears rank 31st in the league with 19.1 points scored per game.
538 Playoff %: 34%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: +9.5 @ GB
Detroit Lions 4-6
Best Win: 30-27 vs WAS
Worst Loss: 20-0 @ CAR
What They Do Well: The best thing about this team is their kicker – Matt Prater. Prater is 10/10 on field goals inside 40 yards this season while also hitting all 26 of his XP attempts. Prater nailed a 59-yard game-winner against Washington in Week 10.
What They Do Poorly: Detroit allows a lot of running yards – ranking 25th in the league with 133.4 per game by opponents. The Lions don’t get big plays when they need them. Detroit ranks 28th with only 10 takeaways through 10 games and has not recorded a non-offensive touchdown all season.
538 Playoff %: 2%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: +3 vs HOU
Minnesota Vikings 4-6
Best Win: 28-22 @ GB
Worst Loss: 40-23 vs ATL
What They Do Well: The Vikings gain a lot of yards – ranking 7th in football with 387.1 yards gained per game.
What They Do Poorly: The Vikings have failed to record a non-offensive touchdown this season.
538 Playoff %: 20%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: -3.5 vs CAR
New Orleans Saints 8-2 
Best Win: 38-3 @ TB
Worst Loss: 34-24 @ LV
What They Do Well: Despite the hoopla surrounding Drew Brees’ arm strength, the Saints have a great offense – ranking 5th in the league in points scored per game (29.5).
🦃🦃🦃 pic.twitter.com/IBQYihoY56
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) November 26, 2020
The Saints also excel defending the run – ranking 2nd in the league in opponent rush yards per game (74.3).
What They Do Poorly: The Saints hurt themselves with lots of unnecessary penalties – ranking 32nd in the league with 67.7 yards per game.
538 Playoff %: 99%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: -6 @ DEN
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-4
Best Win: 38-10 vs GB
Worst Loss: 38-3 vs NO
What They Do Well: The Bucs boast the best rush defense in football with 73 rush yards allowed per game. Tampa’s defense is full of ball hawks – ranking 2nd in the league with 17 takeaways through 11 games.
What They Do Poorly: Starting center AQ Shipley is out for the season. This is a big, yet underrated, blow to the Bucs’ already inconsistent offense.
538 Playoff %: 85%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: +3.5 vs KC
Carolina Panthers 4-7
Best Win: 20-0 vs DET
Worst Loss: 46-23 vs TB
What They Do Well: Shutout terrible football teams.
What They Do Poorly: Carolina looks pretty bad on offense right now with all of their injuries.
538 Playoff %: 1%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: +3.5 @ MIN
Atlanta Falcons 3-7
Best Win: 40-23 @ MIN
Worst Loss: 24-9 @ NO
What They Do Well: Atlanta boasts the #2 pass offense in the entire league with 280.6 pass yards per game.
What They Do Poorly: Atlanta struggles mightily defensively. The Falcons have not recorded a non-offensive touchdown all season and allows opponents to walk into the end zone once they get close. Atlanta ranks 31st in the league in defensive red zone TD% (75.8).
The blown leads are a bit ridiculous, too.
Tennessee Titans 7-3
Best Win: 42-16 vs BUF
Worst Loss: 31-20 @ CIN
What They Do Well: Tennessee has only given the ball away 5 times this season – the fewest in the NFL. The Titans control the ball so well because they have a strong running game. Tennessee ranks 5th in the league with 151.1 rush yards per game.
What They Do Poorly: Titans’ kicker Stephen Gostkowski has the lowest field goal percentage in the league. Gostkowski has hit just 15 of his 23 field goal attempts in 2020 – a mark of 65.2%.
538 Playoff %: 82%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: +3 @ IND
Indianapolis Colts 7-3
Best Win: 34-31 vs GB
Worst Loss: 27-20 @ JAX
What They Do Well: The Colts defense is tremendous. Indy ranks 3rd in the league in opponent rush yards per game, 2nd in takeaways (17 through 10 games), and 1st in non-offensive touchdowns (5).
What They Do Poorly: Indy ranks 19th in the league in rush offense with 109.2 yards per game. The team also ranks 25th in the league with 14 passing TDs through 10 games.
538 Playoff %: 77%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: -3 vs TEN
Houston Texans 3-7
Best Win: 27-20 vs NE
Worst Loss: 10-7 @ CLE
What They Do Well: Houston avoids giveaways – ranking 3rd in the league with 9 through 10 games. DeShaun Watson leads a prolific passing game – his team ranking 6th in passing yards per game with 277.3. The Texans don’t beat themselves – ranking 2nd in the league in penalty yards per game (38.6).
What They Do Poorly: The Texans are hopeless when stopping the run – ranking 31st in the league in opponent rush yards per game (154.7). The Texans may not give the ball away much, but they don’t force turnovers either. Houston ranks dead last in the NFL with only 7 takeaways.
538 Playoff %: 1%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: -3 @ DET
This will be the second #Texans Thanksgiving Day contest against the Lions. #HOUvsDET | #WeAreTexans
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 26, 2020
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-9
Best Win: Only win. 27-20 vs JAX
Worst Loss: 34-16 vs DET
What They Do Well: Um … they won in Week 1.
What They Do Poorly: Jacksonville ranks 29th in the NFL with 20.2 points scored per game. The team ranks 31st in the NFL in penalty yards per game (64.8).
538 Playoff %: <1%
Week 12 Matchup/Line: +7 vs CLE
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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