Stanley Cup Finals: Why the St. Louis Blues are a Mispriced Underdog

Prior to the St. Louis Blues vs Calgary Flames series earlier this postseason, I noticed an article in a Calgary sports page with the headline, “Jordan Binnington Called Out For Questionable Past Tweets,” or something like that.

It’s not as if the headline was inaccurate. The Blue Note’s goaltender has, unfortunately, offended many in the past with insensitive remarks on social media.

But a couple of other concerns came immediately to mind. First, such headlines are common in biased political rags, since you really only need 2 like-minded activists on board to be able to say “Multiple activists speak out against Candidate X” and voila – it’s a “truthful” smear story. It’s only a “news” story because the publisher makes it one.

More importantly – the timing. I know better than to think the “innocent” Calgary reporter – who told his tale without the slightest hint of an opinion – just happened to suddenly take interest in Jordan Binnington’s views on race and gender issues. The newspaper was just hoping to cause a distraction for the Flames’ upcoming opponent.

NHL playoff series are like that. It’s a whole city, a whole venue staff, a whole culture vs another culture. It goes beyond any vinegar the players feel on the ice. Stories still circulate of Scotty Bowman making sure that a playoff opponent’s chartered plane was slower than his team’s aircraft, and ordering fresh coats of acrid-smelling paint in the other club’s dressing room.

Are there any such hijinks and goings-on between Beantown and the Gateway City? Not yet. The best I can do for you is a Boston.com editorial in which the author implies that the Bruins have enjoyed a lucky draw in the NHL postseason – and that it just got luckier.

I’m not sure that I’d want to make the St. Louis Blues angry after the spring they’ve had. However, in a Stanley Cup Finals between 2 of the toughest and most time-honored hockey towns in the United States, you can expect fur to fly.

Just give it a little time. The series is set to face-off on Monday at TD Garden…Bear country.

What Bookmakers Think of the Bruins vs Blues Final

The Bruins come into the Stanley Cup Finals as substantial favorites. Sportsbetting.ag’s line on the Eastern Conference champs to win Game 1 at TD Garden is (-157) and the site’s “series price” market on Boston is a slender (-166).

Beantown’s skaters have shown a lot to give bettors confidence over the past few weeks. Bruce Cassidy’s team survived a 7-game war with the Toronto Maple Leafs, emerged victories in a tense, tide-turning Game 5 against the Columbus Blue Jackets, and finally swept the Carolina Hurricanes in 4 straight to earn a long rest before the finals begin on Monday.

MyBookie’s series price for the underdog Blues is OK at (+145), but Sportsbetting.ag’s line in the same market is also running a tad fatter at (+146).

Are bookmakers underestimating the St. Louis Blues because of a lousy fall and winter of 2018, the same as Arsenal has been down-valued as a Europa League wager thanks to the Gunners’ struggles on the back line on Christmas?

Let’s look at the Blues (and Bruins) from the goalmouth outward, and see if there’s really a weakness that Boston can exploit to the tune of a 5-game or 6-game win in the Cup finals.

Rowdy Rookie vs Fantastic Finn

Binnington did not partake in a full National Hockey League season in 2018-19. The minor leagues were the 25-year-old goalie’s bread and butter until Berube took over for the Blues. He racked-up a 24-5 W/L mark after a late-season NHL call-up and has been swell in the playoffs, allowing just 2 measly goals to the powerful San Jose Sharks in the final 3 games of the Western Conference finals.

Tuukka Rask of the Boston Bruins is as respected an NHL netminder as you could ask for in a moneyline wager. Rask took the Spokes on a 22-game romp through the postseason in 2012-13, and has posted another dazzling save % of .942 in 3 playoff series.

Rask’s numbers could be slightly “juiced” by a predictable phenomenon in the Boston-Carolina series. As Game 3 and Game 4 unfolded as triumphant wins for the Bruins, announcers were saying that the Hurricanes looked dominant, and couldn’t figure out why Carolina wasn’t scoring.

I knew why they weren’t scoring. They were anxious, squeezing sticks, playing with “panic at heart” as hockey old-timers like to say. Once a team is losing a Game 3 or a Game 4, they begin nervously “aiming” instead of releasing shots. As a result, a quality opposing GK like Rask is all-but impenetrable.

From a hockey point of view, the 2019 Stanley Cup Finals will feature a Boston goalie whose effectiveness, stamina, experience, and focus should by-all-rights overcome the efforts of a 25-year-old rookie who tries too many weird passes from the goal crease.

From a handicapping point of view, the Bruins are over-valued thanks to the invisible hand (or squeezing hands) of Carolina’s snipers having gone cold in Round 3, while the Blues are being taken too lightly due to the St. Louis goalkeeper’s lack of seasoning.

Bennington is hot-as-lava right now. That’s what matters most.

Pondering the Pairings

Boston may also be a favorite in Vegas thanks to the team’s blue line.

The wonderful Zdeno Chára is still skating – and crushing people – in his 40s. Meanwhile, Torey Krug and Charlie McAvoy are all over the ice in the transition game.

Rest prior to the last series will help the 42-year-old Slovakian. But the Blues have been afforded a few days off too. Those should help a Gateway City defenseman like Jay Bouwmeester, who was quiet in the final 2 wins against the Sharks after contributing offensively throughout the regular season and postseason.

Meanwhile, Alex Pietrangelo is on fire with tape-to-tape passes, notching 11 assists in the postseason for the Blue Note.

Forward March

I’m also not buying Boston as a better lineup of forwards than St. Louis, since the scoring statistics are skewed by the Bruins having had a successful regular season while the Blues slumped with mismanagement and then rallied late. You can’t compare the depth charts with numbers – you have only to look at reputations to realize that things could go either way.

Pundits will have fun comparing the support troops, such as centermen Oskar Sundqvist of St. Louis and David Backes – who used to wear the Blue Note – of Boston.

What interest me, however, are the top-line names.  Ryan O’ Reilly is a St. Louis skater who I call the “Kevin McHale” of the modern NHL. His stats are never those of a Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, or even a Brett Hull or Adam Oates. What O’Reilly gives the Blues organization instead is simply a dynamo in all 3 zones, an athlete who is just as comfortable in a tight checking game or a wide-open circus. The veteran’s familiarity and comfort with any kind of pond shinny is especially valuable come playoff time. So is the pure sniping of Vladimir Tarasenko.

Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron are thrilling forwards who will cause St. Louis all kinds of trouble over 4-7 games. Rask may be just as deluged with pucks as the inexperienced Binnington over the course of 4 to 7 games, though.  No hockey puck cares how many games a Stanley Cup goaltender has played in.

Best Bet on the 2019 Stanley Cup Finals

St. Louis is a club that could steal Game 1 on the road. The series is too evenly-matched for even a single period’s worth of nerves and ring-rust occurring without making a difference, and any blip in positioning by either blue line is likely to come from the pairings who haven’t played in a week. That factor could give STL as much of an edge in Game 1 as any “well-rested” opponent.

With any kind of momentum going into a pivotal Game 4 at Enterprise Center, you’re likely to see the Blues getting more shots-on-goal and winning more puck-battles than expected.

My prediction? I don’t have one. It’s a toss-up series! However, as always, that makes any substantial underdog the correct pick.

Take the St. Louis Blues (+146) to win the Stanley Cup Finals.