Southern Stars: March Madness South Region Preview and Best Bets

There used to be no saying this before the Round of 64 tipped off, but March Madness is underway in 2019.

First Four action on Tuesday was about breaking 2 streaks. The first contest of the tourney saw Fairleigh Dickinson come back from a daunting halftime deficit to beat Prairie View A&M in a clash of West Region #16 seeds. Though the Knights will likely fail to slay the Gonzaga dragon on Thursday night, the win got FDU into the win column after 5 straight NCAA Tournament losses.

Another First Four result could have more of an impact by this weekend. #11 seeds Belmont and Temple waged a see-saw battle to advance and face a beatable Maryland squad in the Round of 64. Fran Dunphy of Temple must now retire with only a few victories at the Big Dance, while the win served as a maiden triumph for Bruin skipper Rick Byrd.

But for now, we turn our attention to the South bracket, where the defending tourney champs are a #6 seed, and the top seed didn’t even win a game last year.

UVA Gets Another Day

Virginia has completed another fantastic regular season, earning a share of the ACC title and another #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. UVA was keen on reaching a conference postseason grudge-match against Duke before getting dismissed by Florida State in the ACC semis. The normally-stifling defense of the Cavs allowed FSU to shoot 56.5 percent from the field and was decimated 35-20 on the glass.

Defensive lapses and March Madness don’t mix well. However, I’m skeptical of reading too much into late-round league tourney losses. Bennett is keeping his eyes on the real prize. Booster pressure is likely forcing him to take precautions. UVA has been a #1 or #2 seed in 4 of the last 5 seasons and has yet to get to the Final Four in that span.

Some enhanced offense would be a big help. Virginia has developed a 3-headed monster in the backcourt in Kyle Guy, De’Andre Hunter, and Ty Jerome, all averaging double-digits. The trio hopes to rub-out the memory of last year’s embarrassing defeat to #16 seed UMBC in which UVA couldn’t hit a barn.

The Cavaliers put up an 8-game winning streak to close the schedule which has helped them to a (+600) national-title futures line at Bovada Sportsbook. I’m not in love with that line – UVA has a specific formula for success and is less versatile than UNC or Duke.

Tennessee, Purdue, and KSU

Tennessee’s lopsided loss to the Auburn Tigers in the SEC postseason title scrap killed the Vols’ hopes of earning a #1 Region seed. The Volunteers were at (+1100) odds-to-win the NCAA Tournament but are now sitting at (+1600) after the uncomfortable 84-64 loss to the Tigers in Nashville.

Volcanic junior Grant Williams has stepped up to lead an experienced team into March Madness, but there are too many players that remember the experience of a Round-of-32 exit last year.

Don’t sleep on Purdue at (+3300). The Boilermakers are capable of taking over games against athletic teams. Matt Painter’s squad rode late-season momentum to a 14-2 run in the Big Ten and a share of the regular-season crown.

An astonishing exit in the conference quarterfinals against Minnesota does not seem to have hurt Purdue’s futures line for an underdog title run.

That could be because junior guard Carsen Edwards averaged 23 PPG on the year and can often buoy a half-court offense by himself while teammates mind the store.

Purdue opens against Old Dominion and would not see Virginia until the Elite Eight.

#4 seed Kansas State knocked off multiple tourney teams in March, but could be dealing with a doozy of a match-up right off the bat.

Underdog Picks to Reach the Final Four

Meanwhile, I’m a big fan of underdog Region futures – lines on mid-seeds and true Cinderella bids to reach the Final Four. Give it a harness-racing flair and call it the “4 for 10” bet, since your pick just needs to win 4 games in a row, and the payoff will be close to 10-to-1 if not much, much higher.

Villanova’s quest may have been written-off as a potential title-defense after losing so many players from the cast who cut down the net in ‘18. I’m one of the pundits who still believes that a 2^nd national championship in a row is probably beyond the Wildcats’ reach, but I’m giving the 6^th-seeded ‘Cats at least 1-in-7 chances to win a vulnerable South.

That’s an important litmus test, since the squad’s line to reach Minneapolis is currently (+800), or 8-to-1. Jay Wright’s team caught fire in the Big East Tournament and the title gave them a repeat “double” in what remains a highly-competitive league.

I’m also liking ‘Nova’s bid for the Final Four thanks to a fortuitous spot in the bracket. Saint Mary’s won’t overpower the Wildcats in the Round of 64, and Wright will know how to defend Purdue’s Carson Edwards should the Boilermakers come calling in the follow-up.

Oregon is getting a lot of buzz after winning the Pac-12 postseason title out of nowhere. But I’m focused on another double-digit seed in the Region.

It helps the #13 seed UC Irvine Anteaters that Round-of-16 foe Kansas State could potentially be without big man Dean Wade due to a foot injury. UC Irvine is riding a double-digit winning streak and is an 80-to-1 payoff to reach the Twin Cities.

11^th-through-14^th seeds make intriguing Cinderella bets, because they can avoid the top teams in their Region while momentum builds. UVA would be a stout opponent in the Sweet Sixteen but the Cavaliers are also overrated based on recent results.

There’s no guarantee that Virginia will still be there when push comes to shove, making the South an intriguing bracket-of-16 when hunting those high-payoff sleepers.