Serie A: AC Milan vs. Napoli Preview, Odds, Prediction

AC Milan and Napoli present the biggest Serie A game of the weekend, with the Serie A champions hosting the guests from the south at San Siro on Sunday night. Both teams had excellent runs in the UEFA Champions League this mid-week, winning and boosting the morale before the remainder of the season. Milan was better than Dinamo at home, while Napoli blew away then Glasgow Rangers on the road. Gil Azzuri hold the top spot in the standings with Milan and Atalanta but have an edge due to a better goal difference.

Preview

AC Milan (+120) beat Dinamo Zagreb in the UEFA Champions League event on Wednesday night, 3-1, coming out on top in this one following a routine performance. It was the third victory for Rosonerri in the previous four events, and sixth in nine since the campaign started.

What is important to say here is that all those four events saw both teams scoring and that three of them ended with over 2.5 goals. Overall, just two of Milan’s appearances this season haven’t seen goals on both ends.

When we analyze the stats of the games at San Siro, the conclusion is that Milan plays extremely well and efficiently in front of its crowd. In five games, Stefano Pioli’s unit posted five wins, in each scoring twice or more, with a combined goal difference of 14-5.

Napoli (+220) is in very good shape, having four consecutive victories, two of them very impressive in the UEFA Champions League. After beating Liverpool at home, 4-1, Luciano Spaletti’s crew was ruthless on the road, winning 0-3 in Glasgow against the Rangers, whom they demolished in the second half.

Gil Azzuri’s defense stepped up in the past two meetings, not allowing a goal in each of them, which was the fifth clean sheet of the campaign. Away from their San Paolo, Napoli has three wins and a draw, with only one event not reaching three or more hits.

Despite suffering plenty of departures and arrivals this summer, Napoli came out of all that even stronger than before, composing a team that could attack the title. With Spalletti leading the way, everything is possible.

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The biggest handicap for the home team will be the absence of Rafael Leao, who is suspended due to a red card earned in Genoa against Sampdoria. Apart from the Portuguese player, Ibrahimovic, Florenzi, Rebic and Origi are all out.

Napoli is without their top star and the best striker, Victor Osimhen, who is injured. We don’t need to explain how big of a deal this is for Spalletti. Demme, Lozano, and Zedadka are all out, with the note to check up on Lozano.

Head to Head Games

We saw an interesting situation last year, with the guests in both meetings taking away the win, 0-1. At first, Napoli triumphed in Milan in December 2021, and in March, Milan responded with the same measure.

Prediction

The lack of two top strikers on both ends will undoubtedly lead to a slightly decreased efficiency, combined with the fact that this is a derby of the round and neither side would want to experience a loss. That’s why under 2.5 goals looks like the best possible choice.

Pick: Under 2.5 goals -105