Scherzer-Cole Opening Day Matchup Plus Nationals-Yankees Moneyline Pick

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A lot of pitchers live for Opening Day starts. Give me the ball, I’m going to get this first win for my team. Player testimonies claim the energy levels in the clubhouse and the crowd on Opening Day are unmatched – even by postseason atmospheres.

Others are not wired for early-season success and need several games to get into their rhythms. Certain pitchers consistently struggle in the first inning or two of every game. Likewise, we often see pitchers struggle over their first couple of starts in a new season.

Max Scherzer’s Opening Day Success

Max Scherzer has started Opening Day for the Nationals in 4 of his 5 seasons with the club – pitching well each time.

Scherzer was a tough-luck loser on Opening Day in 2019 as his Nationals fell 2-0 to the New York Mets. Scherzer pitched into the eighth inning, allowing just 2 runs on 2 hits while striking out 12. He was outdueled by eventual Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom.

In 2018, Scherzer was on the good side of a 2-0 Opening Day win as he shut out the Reds over 6 innings, allowing 5 hits and striking out 10.

Scherzer did not pitch Opening Day in 2017 but rather started Washington’s first road series in Philadelphia – the 4th game of the season. The Nationals edged Philly 7-6. Scherzer pitched into the seventh inning, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks, striking out 7.

The Nationals won on Opening Day again in 2016, beating the Atlanta Braves 4-3. Max went 7 full innings, allowing 2 runs on 3 hits and striking out seven.

In Scherzer’s first start with the Nationals in 2015 after leaving Detroit, he lost to the Mets on Opening Day 3-1. Scherzer pitched brilliantly, allowing 0 earned runs and just 4 hits in 7 and ⅔ innings, striking out eight. The Nats’ defense did not have his back, however, allowing the Mets to score 3 unearned runs.

Do the math and Scherzer has averaged 7 innings, 1 earned run, 3.5 hits, and 9 strikeouts in his first start of each season since arriving in Washington.

Gerrit Cole Is Not Automatic on Opening Day

Gerrit Cole has not enjoyed consistent success on Opening Day.

In 2019, the Astros chose Justin Verlander to pitch Opening Day, but Cole got the nod in the team’s second game. His Astros could not get the job done against the Tampa Bay Rays, losing 4-2. Cole pitched well, allowing 1 run on 5 hits in 6 innings of work with 10 strikeouts. The Astros’ defense forgot to show up as the Rays scored 3 unearned runs.

Cold did not pitch until game number 4 in 2018, but threw very well as his Astros won 8-2 versus the Texas Rangers. Cole allowed just 1 run on 2 hits and 3 walks over 7 innings while striking out 11 batters.

Cole started Opening Day for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2017, but he delivered a dud and his boys fell to the Boston Red Sox 5-3. Cole lasted just 5 innings and allowed 5 earned runs on 7 hits, striking out only 2 batters.

Cole was the Pirates’ fifth starter in 2016. He fell to the Reds 5-1 in his first start of that season. Cole could not even make it a full 5 innings in this game, allowing 5 earned runs on 3 hits and 3 walks.

The average of Cole’s first starts of each season is 5 and ⅔ innings, 3 earned runs, 4 hits, and 7 strikeouts – not nearly as solid as Max’s numbers.

Scherzer vs Cole in Early-Season Starts

Though the games will be played in late July and August, these first couple weeks of 2020 action will mimic March and April results from a normal year. In a normal year, some pitchers are able to hit the ground running while others take 3 or 4 starts to get back into rhythms. I want to see if Scherzer and Cole are quick starters or slow warmers.

Using Killersports query tool, I pulled the March and April stats of the careers of Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer.

	Scherzer	Cole
Starts	58	32
Team SU	32-26 (55.2%)	18-14 (56.2%)
Team O/U	24-28 (46.2%)	16-15 (51.6%)
Avg IP	6.1	6.3
Avg K	7.2	7.3
Avg BB	1.8	1.7

Scherzer has considerably more experience pitching in March and April, but the rest of the numbers are extremely similar.

The only significant difference between Cole and Scherzer’s early-season starts is that the total tends to go over more when Cole is pitching. This is something to think about considering the total for Thursday’s game is on the low side – 7.5.

Both pitchers handle themselves very well early in the season. This tells me they both take care of themselves during the offseason and are already in shape to begin Spring Training.

Any Worries of a World Series Hangover for Washington?

I hear football announcers reference the Super Bowl hangover quite often. While not as prevalent in baseball, there are pitfalls teams must avoid if they want to be successful the year after winning a ring.

Some teams will sell players away and break up the core of their team after winning a championship. The Nationals did lose Anthony Rendon – a major piece to their offense.

Sluggish and apathetic attitudes during the offseason and Spring Training will really catch up to a team over a 162-game grind. This long coronavirus break helps the Nationals more than any team as the entire league is now thrown out of equilibrium. It is like all 30 teams are coming off a rough offseason.

I went back over the last 4 seasons to see how teams that have just won the World Series fared over their first several games of the next season – looking for evidence of a World Series hangover.

After winning it all in 2018, the Red Sox really stunk in 2019. Boston flew out to Seattle for Opening Day in what seemed like a pushover matchup against the Mariners, but got blown out 12-4 and ended up losing 3 of the 4 games in that series. It took Boston quite a while to win some games as they lost 8 of their first 11 – clearly a World series hangover.

The Houston Astros fared much better after their championship. Houston beat the Texas Rangers 4-1 on Opening Day in 2018 and won 3 of the first 4 games in that series. Houston would go on to win 9 of their first 10 – no hangover there.

The Chicago Cubs lost on Opening Day in 2017 4-3 to the Cardinals, but won 2 of 3 in that series and 5 of their first 7.

The Kansas City Royals started 2016 off with a win against the team they defeated in the World series – the New York Mets. They would end up splitting the short 2-game series with New York but won 8 of their first 10 to begin the season.

Over the past 4 years, 3 teams have played exceptionally well in their first 2 weeks of the new season while only the 2019 Boston Red Sox underachieved heavily.

There is no recent evidence of a World Series hangover. This should not factor into the game betting decision.

Yankees or Nationals? Final Verdict

The Yankees moneyline on Bovada is (-135). The Nationals are slight dogs at (+115). The total is 7.5 runs. The over is (-105). The under is (-115).

In Cole’s 32 March and April starts, his team has won 56.2% while Max’s teams have won 55.2%. This is particularly impressive when considering that Scherzer has played on better teams than Cole. I expected Scherzer’s team’s winning percentage to be higher than Cole’s in his starts, but it is not.

Max is a big-game pitcher. While his March/April numbers are a slight step down from Cole’s, Max routinely dominates hitters in his first start of every season.

Combine Cole’s prowess with the Yankees amazing lineup and it is clear why New York is the favorite in this Opening Day battle.

Backing the Nationals, solely because I believe Scherzer will outpitch Cole, is the smart move. I’m all over Washington ML (+115).

Cole’s early-season starts have a slight propensity to go over – with 51.6% of his games exceeding the total. Scherzer’s games are more likely to go under – with only 46.2% of his starts ending over the total.

Much of the decision whether to back the over or under relies on which side of the batter/pitcher argument you are on.

Some fans – myself included – believe that this long coronavirus layoff aids pitchers as pitching is repetition-based – you can practice anywhere. Hitting is timing based and requires a live pitcher to simulate an in-game environment.

Those who believe the pitchers have an early advantage should be betting more unders as there will be less runs scored.

There is another camp which believes the hitters have the advantage. One of the strongest arguments from this side is that some pitchers have not been taking it upon themselves to keep their arms in shape and that their pitches will not be quite as effective early on in the season.

While I can certainly see some lesser-caliber pitchers letting themselves go a little bit over this quarantine – I don’t think we have to worry about with these two studs.

Scherzer and Cole are elite professionals at the top of their games and each take extreme pride in performing at the highest level. Each are playing on massive contracts – especially Cole – and feel the need to prove themselves each and every time out.

I do not see a clear advantage on the O/U line – which means I will not be touching it. I’ll stick with my one prediction – Nationals ML winners at (+115).

Hang in there till Thursday y’all! See you on top!