Premier League Predictions: Eagles vs Foxes Total Goals Pick and Recommended ML Odds on Villa vs Chelsea

Last weekend, the National Football League’s schedule beat the English Premier League to the punch. It couldn’t be more different for cross-sport speculators in the EPL’s 10th round, which will begin even before Friday Night Lights can kick-off in America.

Not that many supporters won’t be looking ahead to Sunday. Liverpool, arguably, has a final chance – against none other than Manchester City – to show that Reds can actually be a relevant club in this season’s points race. If Sky Blues win the match convincingly, Liverpool will officially be just another talented UK team hoping to secure a UEFA berth in 2023-24. Liverpool winning wouldn’t just boost Reds, but current table-leader Arsenal as well.

But there’s definitely a few favorable lines for punters that will come along in matches played before City-Liverpool on Sunday. WagerBop isn’t moved when bookmakers put “traditional trust” in elite clubs to beat underdogs in fall and winter, as “minnows” on the top of the table begin to swim more slowly and eventually revert back to typical form (unless they’re known as “Leicester” or “West Ham,” of course). It’s another story when London stubbornly clings to a team like Wolves in ’22 as a pricey pick. EPL odds-makers seem to have held onto the entire 2021-22 table as a guide to setting lines … not just the top-4.

Long-term and short-term considerations must be clearly delineated, or else a sportsbook winds up with inaccurate match-odds that belong in the futures ledger, or vice versa. Manchester City’s a trusty pick after a loss, but…Brentford? Let’s look closer at that.

Brentford F.C. vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (Friday, October 14)

If Friday’s kickoff had occurred in September, it is rather interesting to envision what odds on Brighton vs. Brentford might have looked like. Brighton & Hove Albion commenced the 2022-23 cycle with a prolonged flourish of quality form which earned 10 points from 4 debut league matches before falling on August 30th to Fulham at Craven Cottage. With merely 2 victories in 9 Premier League bouts so far, Brentford would not be nearly as optimistic of a pick as Friday’s money-line odds of (+200) at FanDuel Sportsbook are predicting, but for Seagulls’ momentum having slowed after earning 1 point from 2 arduous fixtures.

Seagulls are favored at (+135) on the money-line and a (-1) favorite against the spread at liberal (+400) payoff odds for a 2-goal conquest. Bees, which had a 5-across midfield absolutely mauled by Magpies in a Newcastle 5-1 win in the last Brentford’s appearance, could motivate bloated odds by this Thursday or Friday morning, as Brentford’s back line now seems to be as porous as it once made United’s look in summer.

However, there is a mental element to the bookmakers’ tight odds on Bees-Seagulls too. As the football club that sounds like a Led Zeppelin recording studio will be “Hots On For Nowhere” if Brighton & Hove Albion loses the mojo that it had before the Premier League’s surprise break. Seagulls’ coaches know that Friday is a shining chance to stay pertinent, but Bees may view Seagulls as a very “vincible” adversary to possibly take 3 points from.

WagerBop’s Pick: Brighton (+135)

Leicester City vs. Crystal Palace (Saturday, October 15)

It is a little odd to see Leicester City favored at 1-to-1 odds in a 3-way money-line market, especially seeing how many disappointing episodes Leicester has borne since the cycle commenced. Foxes have become an all-too-popular choice in “relegation” EPL odds, stand at the lowest of today’s table with only 4 points produced in 9 matches, and trashed the momentum of a 4-0 win over Nottingham by blowing a lead against undermanned AFC Bournemouth and losing.

Nonetheless, there is Leicester City at (+125) next to Crystal Palace’s 2-to-1 money-line odds to win on Saturday. Maybe it is another prediction of disparate motivation on behalf of bookmakers (or on behalf of Leicester and Palace) since Palace, as spring’s commentators ceaselessly point out, is more of an “anti-relegation machine” than a team that seeks the English Premier League crown. Palace is not always as likely to battle when relegation is not on the line, even if 2022-23 UEFA invitations are still on the table at this early date.

Meanwhile, Foxes are anxious for 3 points and could see Eagles as the squad’s likeliest October prey. FanDuel’s blog quibbles—it is more likely that Leicester will wake up against Leeds on the attack later on than against an explosive defending club.

Draw odds of (+240) are also far too doubtful for a fixture that could effortlessly finish with 0 goals, or 2 tallies. Bookmakers take note, Palace is either a hostile side or it is not.

WagerBop’s Pick: Draw (+240)

Wolverhampton vs. Nottingham Forest (Saturday, October 15)

It is stranger still to see Wolves as a (-155) pick to triumph this week, given how bad Wanderers’ current record has been at Molineux Stadium. In September, Wolves have hardly scored any tallies at all, thanks to postponed rounds, mismatched bouts against City and Liverpool, and a disheartening 0-2 loss to Hammers.

Nottingham cannot be favored at this point against any Premier League side. London’s new “favorite” is Tricky Trees (not in a good “favorite’s” market) to suffer relegation back to English Championship. Nottingham Forest has lost 6 times in 9 matches since the EPL season started, and Nottingham is only in 19th place due to the dreary failures of an established English Premier League side in Leicester City, not because it’s out-playing fellow promotions AFC Bournemouth or Fulham.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (2.5) (-124)

Aston Villa vs. Chelsea F.C. (Sunday, October 16)

Blues are the (-130) favorite to win a match at Villa Park with standard (-110) odds handicapped on both sides of O/U (2.5) total goals. On Sunday, Aston Villa reverted to form with a 1-1 draw against weak Nottingham Forest, but Villains are continuing to draw an optimistic (+320) underdog’s line to kill it.

Early counts on new Chelsea manager Graham Potter’s progress have been encouraging. Blues conquered RB Salzburg in an exasperating 1-1 Champions League mid-September draw, enduring 16 fouls. City also allowed Eagles an early 1-nil lead in the October 1st EPL match, igniting the rage of supporters who are doubtful of a coaching change improving Chelsea’s weakened back-line quality. The roster shored-up its determination and posted a comeback 2-1 victory thanks to new striker Aubameyang and Conor Gallagher’s dramatic winner in the 90th minute, and achieved 4th place (and UEFA Champions League position) on the table with a 3-0 follow-up win over Wolverhampton.

WagerBop’s Pick: Chelsea (-130)

Liverpool vs. Manchester City (Sunday, October 16)

Sky Blues stand with “only” (-135) odds to win at Anfield on Sunday’s match-up. But without a Reds lineup that is not even dependable against the mid-tier of the English Premier League, the low-risk (+320) betting price on Liverpool to win will be hard-pressed to draw enough action to upsurge. Leisure users may be drawn to the fixture’s (+116) odds on Over (3.5) goals.

Spread speculators may sense another Man City blow-out of a disturbed EPL aristocrat, pushing all lines on Reds this weekend into the more generous territory. Citizens did more than hold serve with a delightful 6-3 win over Man United less than 10 days ago in a match where the final could go down among the most deceptive in Manchester derby folklore. A score of 6-3 suggests some type of a humdinger in which Sky Blues’ determined attack survived a Ronaldo rally from Red Devils. However, a simple glimpse at the fixture footage contradicts such an impression, as United turned out to be so out-classed from the start that manager Erik ten Hag barely found an appropriate use for CR7.

Is it possible the public is right about the O/U odds, assuming users will react to the plus-payoff line as we think they will? Reds’ back line, while uncertain in many appearances since the cycle started, could rise up to the test and preserve a chance for Liverpool to prevail on home grounds. After all, Alisson has not lost any superstars of “Sadio’s” level on his back-line unit. Remember that 2 probable outcomes – City ripping apart Liverpool 3-nil and Reds scoring the heroic 2-1 upset – still finish as Under (3.5) betting victories.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (3.5) (-142)