Premier League Odds: Predictions on a Man United-Liverpool Sunday and Blades-Gunners Monday

Well, there’s no getting around it anymore. My English football picks are officially mired in a slump.

Not that my overall record is dropping too close to the dreaded “52.3%” mark or anything. But I’m embarrassed to tell you how large the sample-size is. If it were anything short of 500 games, my woeful 2019-20 record-to-date would be causing the average to sink like Southampton’s chances against Chelsea 2 weekends ago.

I’ve gone over my process for picking markets and bets of course. Despite the tendency of many successful soccer handicappers to get way into the formations, tactics, and minute details of each fixture, I’m not giving up on my principle that meta-analysis of month-by-month trends and W/L records (if not the superstitious “Harry Kane is great/OK/terrible at venue XYZ” stuff) is the most-logical starting point for making picks. I’m willing to examine all of the trees…but it’d be a lousy idea to lose sight of the forest.

There may be a problem with my blogging process though. I’ll admit to doing some “multi-tasking” at times when making a whole bunch of picks for a single Matchday in the Premiership, sorting through the pros and cons of each potential wager while dishing-out info on the match-up to WagerBop readers.

That’s no problem when publishing a ton on a particular match, and it’s no problem when I do the analysis on my own and provide only a little nugget or 2 along with the pick. But there’s only so much time in a day. Sometimes, I’ve found myself reporting only about 2-3 paragraphs of basic info and punditry on a pair of clubs that I didn’t otherwise scout very much, and thinking “Hell, I’ve got enough to go on here. These odds look wacky anyway.” Making a pick off of less than 100 words of scouting is what might be “wacky.”

So for our featured picks on Sunday’s massive match at Old Trafford and on Monday’s stand-alone gambling attraction between Sheffield United and Arsenal, I’ll make sure to do plenty of off-site analysis and plenty of reporting on the particulars.

But for Saturday’s mash of 8 fixtures – which those of you who find this preview late in the game are welcome to simply scroll ahead (or use the final scores to gauge how well WagerBop is grappling out of a prediction-slump) – I promise I’m doing a lot more handicapping than meets the eye.

We’ve just got to save a lot of blog-space for those featured matches on scroll.

Everton vs West Ham 

Toffees are having an absolutely miserable season, and it doesn’t offer much promise of getting better soon. Jordan Pickford and Everton couldn’t even handle Burnley on Matchday 8, taking a red card early in the 2nd half and falling 1-0.

But the Goodison Park hosts are enjoying a “reputation moneyline” of (-105) against (+285) for Hammers on Saturday.

Considering that West Ham has been the superior club overall despite some hiccups, I can’t fathom why Toffees’ line is shrinking. It’s worth at least a 1-unit bet on the underdog (true underdog or not) based on the price.

Pick: West Ham 

AFC Bournemouth vs Norwich City

It’s been a solid season thus far for Cherries, a worthy favorite at (-140). Norwich City is the club that shocked Man City early in the campaign, but there’s been no flakier or prone-to-lapse squad in the entire Premier League if not the top 2 divisions of England.

Pick: Bournemouth 

Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion

The legendary rock guitarist Tony Iommi (who was in Black Sabbath for 40+ years and Jethro Tull for about 2 weeks) was once asked to recount the very best moment of his career. “When Villa won the League Cup,” he said.

Pick: Brighton ATS (+0.5) 

Chelsea FC vs Newcastle United 

Magpies won’t have enough to contend with a revved-up (and surprising) Blues under Frank Lampard, making Chelsea a solid pick-to-cover (-1.5) and even a worthwhile (if chintzy) moneyline market at (-325).

Pick: Chelsea 

Leicester City vs Burnley FC 

There is still a lot of fanfare surrounding Foxes, winners of 4 out of 5 matches before falling 2-1 to Liverpool on Matchday 8. I’m fond of Burnley keeper Nick Pope, who struggled with consistency as a young Pope but may wind up as famous as Jude Law.

Pick: Under (2.5) 

Tottenham Hotspur vs Watford

Matchday 8 could not have gone worse for Tottenham – not only did Spurs fall 3-0 to Seagulls but Hugo Lloris suffered a long-term ligament injury. Paulo Gazzaniga will start between the posts vs Hornets despite the rapid signing of Michel Vorm.

Harry Kane’s club is pretty healthy otherwise, but I doubt Son and Erikson will be encouraged to play loose in midfield.

Hueng-min, by the way, was just involved in a brutal North Korea vs South Korea grudge-match played in front of about 15 spectators in DPRK.

Pick: Under (3) or Prop Bet on Exact Outcome “2-0” for Spurs 

Wolverhampton vs Southampton

Wolves is beginning to put things together after a terrible start to the season, and the 2-week Premiership layoff should help Nuno prepare his charges for Saints’ pressing style in the battle of the “Amptons.”

Pick: Wolves (-120) 

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City

Considering that Man City appears vulnerable this autumn, the Eagles of CPFC (who opened at 12-to-1 odds) might be the moneyline-underdog pick of October. Some gamblers have already figured that out, moving Crystal Palace to (+1100). But I’m also liking the Selhurst Park hosts at any of the remaining (+2) goal spreads still on the web.

Pick: Crystal Palace ATS 

Manchester United vs Liverpool (Sunday)

This classic marquee match-up at Old Trafford will dominate betting boards all day Saturday and through the morning on Sunday. What is the verdict of the gambling public so far?

In short, the speculators of America (and Britain, presumably) expect Liverpool to prevail on the road…and don’t expect Reds to have all that much trouble while they’re at it. An opening-consensus line of about 3-to-1 on host Man United has grown to (+385) while Liverpool’s line-to-win has shortened considerably to (-145). Draw markets are holding steady at around 3-to-1.

Paul Pogba’s injury could certainly have a whole lot to do with the line-movement. It’s not a hideous wound, and the French footballer will likely be back in action again soon.

While Pogba’s status as the most tabloid-splashed midfielder on Planet Earth means that his absence (or presence) is always likely to affect gambling action, perhaps more-crucial is that storied GK David de Gea has also been (perhaps prematurely) ruled-out of the Liverpool match on Sunday.

Also in roster news, Joël Matip is outfitted with a new Liverpool contract through 2024 and will be raring to go vs MUFC.

There are actually conflicting reports about the star Red Devil keeper’s status. De Gea has reportedly told pals that he might play in the match after all, and manager Ole Gunnar Solskjær has told reporters that the GK is already feeling better than originally feared. That’s good news for United as other options between the posts are meager. Sergio Romero has only played in a handful of matches this term, starting friendlies in the International Champions Cup and appearing in the Europa League. He’s played pretty well, but tellingly the Man United attack isn’t flourishing even against the 2nd-tier of UEFA hopefuls, recently drawing 0-0 with Dutch club AZ Alkmaar.

Salah and company are flying high with 8 straight wins in the Premiership, though I can imagine United’s keeper heroically stepping onto the pitch and somehow engineering a draw. The “Draw” markets aren’t much more lucrative than usual, though, and it’s not a high-% wager…neither is Red Devils at 4-to-1.

But the Over (2.5) is looking awfully tasty, because Pogba hasn’t been scoring goals anyway and won’t be missed all that badly in the short-term. There’s still a 60% or 70% chance that these old rivals will throw caution to the wind – at least United is a club that is fast running out of chances and must go for broke.

Meanwhile, if Allison puts on a clinch and Matip rules the backline, earning a clean sheet for Liverpool? Reds are still more than capable of scoring 3+ goals on their own in that scenario, giving the Over gambler a safety-valve even if Red Devils are hapless.

Pick: Over 

Sheffield United vs Arsenal FC (Monday)

In somewhat of a mirror-image of the gambling action on Sunday’s match, the Monday fixture between Blades and Gunners (early-afternoon in most of the United States) is seeing line-movement toward the underdog.

Sheffield United opened as nearly a 4-to-1 wager to prevail at Bramall Lane, but has shrunk to (+295) while Arsenal has wound up with a “standard” Bovada Sportsbook line of (-110), as if Gunners were a garden-variety ATS bet on an NFL game.

It can’t be because of Blades shooting way up the Premiership table – that’s not happening. But the club has managed a few brave performances on home turf, including a 1-goal loss to Liverpool on 9/28 in which Sheffield’s backline fended-off 15 of 16 shot attempts and held a scoreless tilt level until well into the 2nd half.

Meanwhile, Arsenal – and perhaps this is why gamblers are a tad skeptical – hasn’t been doing an exceptional job of taking advantage when faced with vulnerable opponents in Premier League matches. A 2-2 draw with Tottenham was a reasonably cracking way to begin the club’s September campaign, but a disappointing draw with Hornets at Emirates Stadium was soon to follow.

Unai Emery’s squad later fell behind against visiting Villains and took a red card in the 41st minute, somehow surviving to win 3-2. But then came another draw vs Man United despite a goal from inestimable striker Aubameyang, and the limping attack only produced 2 on-target shots vs visiting Cherries on Matchday 8 as Gunners got by on an early David Luiz goal to win 1-0.

Speaking of poor attacks, as brave as Sheffield’s defending might be against premier (excuse the pun) opponents, the attack is often clumsy and subject to poor passes and give-aways. Ultimately I think Arsenal will capitalize and feed a striker for a goal or 2, but I can’t see a rising Over/Under total of (3) tallies as a rational line-movement.

It’s a Monday match and people would rather cheer for goals. Cheer for the keepers instead and you’ll have at least a 6-in-10 chance to end the EPL week smiling.

Pick: Under