Premier League Betting: Wolves vs Liverpool Moneyline Pick

I like me some straightforward goal spreads!

MyBookie can always be counted on to shun the ever-popular (and baffling) Asian Handicap fad, and is offering a (-1) / (+1) betting market on favored Liverpool and hosting Wolves in Premier League action at Molineux Stadium this Friday.

The moneyline has it (-200) for Reds and (+501) on a Wolverhampton upset.

It is clear that while bookies (and the public) feel this should be a closely-fought match, there is a strong agreement that Wolverhampton has its work cut out trying to best Liverpool and hand the Reds their first loss of the season.

Lovely Liverpool

The Reds have lost only a couple of non-EPL outings since the FIFA World Cup in Russia, including a 2-1 loss to Chelsea in the Football League Cup and a 2-1 outcome to Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League on November 28^th.

How did Les Parisiens pull it off?

Well, it helps to have Neymar. The iconic Brazilian scored the winning goal in the 37^th minute, earned a yellow card, and (for all I know – I didn’t catch the match on TV) most likely rolled 75 meters from sideline to sideline after being struck by a gnat.

But Liverpool had a bad day on the attack. The Reds possessed the football more often and passed more precisely than the Red and Blues, but only mustered a single on-target shot, fouling repeatedly when PSG midfielders managed to steal the ball and head in the other direction. No Premier League side has been able to perplex Liverpool that way, at least not when it matters most.

Salah has proven that he is not a fleeting flash on the world stage. After a middling start in 2018-19, the 26-year-old forward is into double-digit goals on the season and recently scored a trio of tallies against overmatched Bournemouth.

The pitfalls of defending Salah have opened up new lanes of attack for his teammates at the front of the lineup. Sadio Mané has 7 tallies. Xherdan Shaqiri has 5 goals in just 13 apps. Divock Origi has a goal and an assist despite barely making it onto the pitch.

If there is an Achilles’ heel, it is the depth-of-attack from the midfield and backline. Of every midfielder on the squad, only James Milner has nailed the net more than once. Joel Matip and Trent Alexander-Arnold are the only defenders on the Liverpool squad who have tallied in 17 matches.

But with Allison between the posts and a 3-headed monster of Salah-Firmino-Mané at forward, it is not essential for defenders to score. In fact, solid workhorses like Virgil van Dijk and Andrew Robertson are right in their comfort zones.

We have seen a lot of goals-against allowed by otherwise solid clubs at the worst possible junctures in 2018-19, mostly because the backline becomes too aggressive and loses proper position. Klopp’s defenders must only do their jobs and watch Salah and his supporting cast fly up the pitch against beleaguered opposing keepers.

Wolves Back on the Prowl

Will Wolverhampton GK Rui Patrício also look vulnerable against the Liverpool attack? Maybe not if his 5-to-1 underdog plays as well as it has over the past dozen days.

Wolves enthusiastically gobbled-up points against Newcastle and Bournemouth on 12/9 and 12/15 respectively. The Magpies took a red card and could not hold off Matt Doherty in extra time as Wolves prevailed 2-1 at St. James Park. 6 days later it was Ivan Cavaleiro’s turn to score after the 90^th minute against Cherries, but the tenor was already set in the 1^st half as El Tricolor forward (and Benfica loaner) Raúl Jiménez scored in the 12^th minute of a 2-0 triumph.

Yet it was the match on December 5^th that stunned fans and bookmakers alike. Chelsea seemed ready to send Wolves sliding farther down the Premier League table after scoring a goal in just the 18^th minute of a trip to West Midlands. Playing a classic 4-4-3 style with Kepa looming in goal, the Blues took a 1-nil lead into half and would almost triple the hosts in possession and passing. But Wolves tallied twice in under 5:00 to vanquish the visitors, up-and-comer Jota scoring the winner in the 63^rd minute of a 2-1 upset.

A counter-attacking style will serve Wolverhampton in good stead against Liverpool. Manager Santo’s odd formations and the swiftness of forwards like Jiménez make the plan of attack seem obvious – parry and preserve energy before flying toward Allison once a blunder is made by the Reds’ backline or midfield.

What makes Wolves an interesting adversary for Liverpool is not simply the club’s hot streak or the upset of Chelsea, but formations that allow flexibility and a forceful posture in midfield that could plausibly lead to less utter dominance by the Reds. The Liverpool-United match proved that hanging around your own box too long against Salah’s strike force is a recipe for disaster. Wolves must challenge at midfield enough to keep the guests off balance.

I’m liking Liverpool on the moneyline, but not because the Wolves are a weak opponent. It would be crazy to underestimate Friday’s hosts at this point, in spite of how long the team’s current incarnation has played in the Premier League. The Wanderers are for real. They are just unlikely to hold off one of the most gifted and well-coached Liverpool squads to have come along in quite a while, at least without any injuries or short-turnaround stress to hamper the Reds.

I am thinking Wolves will keep it close, particularly if the guests score in the 1^st half and decide to play methodically to avoid being vulnerable to the counter. If the Reds score twice, Wolves are likely to score at least once.

That means the goal spread is less likely to pay off…but the moneyline will. Take Liverpool (-200) to prevail straight-up.