NFL Wild Card Weekend: Picks on Point Spreads, Point Totals, and FanDuel Prop Bets

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (Saturday, January 14)

Wild Card Weekend’s theme is mismatches and wide point spreads, and Saturday’s opening bout in San Francisco (-9.5) is no exception. The San Francisco 49ers have been busy proving that NFL wins and losses aren’t all about an elite QB, racking up a terrific double-digit win streak despite severe injuries to quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance.

Faithful 49ers fans were miffed at the club’s poor preseason odds to win the Super Bowl, which placed the team next to clubs like the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts. However, in the wake of San Francisco’s massive streak, the club’s (+550) Super Bowl odds have improved to a pricey mark. Christian McCaffery is performing like a tiger loose from a cage after saying goodbye to his long-time franchise in Carolina while QB Brock Purdy is going strong.

The narrative of the Seattle Seahawks is no less captivating, even as Seattle lags badly behind San Francisco in overall victories. Pete Carroll’s team was doubted in training camp, in preseason, and in midseason as the head coach appeared to be reaching the end of the line as an effective CEO. QB Geno Smith is having a breakout year, and could possibly outplay Purdy.

Even if the venue in Seattle isn’t as noisy as it used to be (it’s not even called CenturyLink Field anymore), playing for a friendly crowd in the Pacific Northwest would still be far preferable to visiting San Francisco with north Californians going ga-ga over the 49ers. The Seahawks are no longer dominant enough defensively in January to keep Saturday’s favorites from controlling the ball and the tempo, and opposing pocket pressure will be a factor that Purdy’s team can live with and that Smith’s offense cannot afford. The host, with a superior run game and defense, may benefit from the rainy and windy weather in California.

WagerBop’s Pick: 49ers ATS (-9.5)

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (Saturday, January 14)

Saturday will have the future of NFL quarterbacking on display, as Trevor Lawrence and the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) host Justin Herbert and the favored Los Angeles Chargers in the Sunshine State. The AFC Wild Card kickoff certainly deserves to be among the tightest handicaps of the weekend, considering how many lopsided games could be about to dot postseason scoreboards following an NFL year that’s not known for its team uniformity.

However, we’re not so sure that FanDuel’s cautious O/U number of (47.5) applies to a common-sense prediction on Jaguars vs Chargers so much as it follows the computer math of deceptive unit rankings and scoring averages. The Jaguar defense has excelled as a buoy for Lawrence in many low-scoring games that the Clemson product got to relax in.

Conversely, Jacksonville has allowed all kinds of TDs and points almost every time they opposed an elite quarterback in 2022-23. Herbert’s OL wasn’t well rehearsed when the Jags held the Bolts to 10 points in a September victory. Since then, the Jaguar defense has allowed big outings from Lamar Jackson, Pat Mahomes, Jared Goff, and others whom Herbert compares to in accuracy, movement, and velocity.

Jacksonville won’t be a Saturday cupcake even if Herbert throws for 400+ yards, especially at home with not much to lose in the postseason. But a QB’s battle is the enemy of low-side picks against the Over/Under, a close 4th-quarter score may also up the game’s scoring.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (47.5)

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (Saturday, January 14)

The Buffalo Bills’ inspired Week 18 performance for teammate Damar Hamlin needs no recapping in this space. However, it’s noteworthy that the Bills’ season-capper has reestablished Josh Allen’s team as a Super Bowl betting favorite at FanDuel.

Buffalo (-800) also stands as the biggest odds-on moneyline favorite to win in Week 19, hosting the warm-weather Miami Dolphins in upstate New York for what should be an emotional postseason bout.

In Week 19, the Dolphins do seem to be the Wild Card team that’s cruisin’ for a bruisin’. Miami doesn’t have a Christian McCaffery or another secret weapon to help compensate for the Dolphin’s own drastic injury woes at QB. The Bills have lost its secret “ringer” in the injured gun-for-hire Von Miller, but on all 3 units, they still, look like the superior club.

Yet the Miami defense has been a quiet engine keeping the Florida team afloat, and there are no superstar concussions to cast a pall on the entire unit’s effort. The Dolphins have held opponents to just over 100 rush yards per game this season and could be poised for a better performance than in Buffalo’s 32-29 win over Miami late in the season. (The Dolphins held the Bills to minimal 1st-half rushing yards and forced 60+ pass attempts from Josh Allen while upsetting Buffalo in the teams’ earlier divisional bout.) It won’t be any surprise if the Miami offense is stone-iced in frigid Buffalo, and yet for all the Bills’ virtues, September’s loss proved that 5+ YPC is the real key to Buffalo’s blow-out wins. The Bills are interested in winning a Super Bowl, and 50+ passes on Saturday isn’t the way to commence.

A browbeaten Miami side could easily succumb to a lopsided score in the 2nd half, making FanDuel’s O/U (43.5) point-total market into a crap-shoot outcome no matter how cold the weather is. However, that’s why halftime NFL prop bets are many times a great idea.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (21.5) (1st Half Point Total Prop Bet) (+100)

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, January 15)

Seeing the New York Giants handicapped as only a (+140) underdog in Minnesota is truly nice. Given how the New York Jets faded after a promising start to 2022-23, handicappers in the Big Apple—where FanDuel Sportsbook is based—could have understandably fallen prey to the NYC pigskin negative vibes.

Possibly the boroughs are taking stock of what they’ve got, instead of what they have not. After all, the Big Blue has gone a surprising 9-7-1 under a brand-new coaching regime and in London scored a landmark upset over the Green Bay Packers. Compared to the absolute doldrums of the past few years of Giants and Jets seasons, that’s a solid promotion.

The Minnesota Vikings (-3) aren’t a promising point-spread favorite due to superiority over the New York Giants, but rather because of the character of the 13-4 Minnesota successes this season. As numerous Twin Cities bloggers have pointed out, the Vikings are fielding too incomplete of a defensive unit to hope to win an NFC Championship Game on the road. Instead, Minnesota must hope that the bracket, and circumstances, work out in its favor and that an unheralded defense will start to heat up as the massive carrot of a conference title is dangled. But with visiting New York so focused on rushing behind Saquon Barkley, this Sunday’s contest could become a game in which the Giants’ offense flourishes between 20-yard lines but can’t convert from the Red Zone. Minnesota will be at a disadvantage inside a raucous domed environment when they do face 3rd-and-long passing scenarios.

Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins will take advantage with TDs as soon as New York bobbles under the pressure, making it far more likely that a Vikings win will come by 7-to-10 points than a simple field goal, even if the well-matched Wild Card game turns into a nail-biter.

WagerBop’s Pick: Vikings ATS (-3)

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, January 15)

Both the sportsbook’s (-8.5) point-spread line on Cincinnati and Over/Under (40.5) number handicapped on Baltimore-at-Cincy can be seen as exaggerated takes at first glance. But then again it’s that O/U line, not the tenuous point spread for Sunday, that should be plunging.

Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson is clearly not ready to play, and neither is backup QB Tyler Huntley bound to be available against the Cincinnati Bengals. With an emergency-QB scenario against one of the up-and-coming greats of professional football in Cincy’s Joe Burrow, the Baltimore Ravens will have no choice but to try to manufacture clock-draining drives with the team’s patented option attack. Jackson has proven to be so much more explosive in running than any other dual-threat Baltimore has debuted that there’s little hope John Harbaugh’s team can build a lead at halftime without trying some wide-open series. Even so, the alternative is to give Burrow chances to build a 28-3 lead.

The Ravens recently had 4 games in a row finish with a 30-points-or-less total on the scoreboard. There’s no reason to offer the “Army West Point” of the NFL at point-total numbers in the 40s, at least under these conditions.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (40.5)