NFL Weeks 7 & 8 – By the Numbers … Plus NFL Playoff Bracket

A lot of teams have played 8 games, some have played only 7. We are just about at the halfway point of the 2020 NFL season which means we have tons to talk about.

Which teams are making moves? Which team(s) appear to be Tanking for Trevor? *cough* Jets *cough*

The playoff picture is beginning to crystalize and I give a full breakdown of the bracket and matchups at the end! Be sure to give that a look!

2

The number of teams who scored at least 34 points in Week 7 and still lost. Two teams have not lost such games in the same week since Week 16 of the 2019 season.

In Week 7, the Bengals lost a 37-34 shootout at home vs the Browns after falling behind early and mounting a furious comeback attempt.

The Seahawks then dropped an OT thriller in the desert to the Cardinals 37-34 on Sunday night.

 

💔💔💔 pic.twitter.com/Yv6hndEIX2

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) October 26, 2020

4

The number of consecutive games in which the Chargers have blown a 16-point lead. I thought the Falcons were the quintessential lead-blowing team of 2020 but the Chargers have out-Falconed them.

In Week 4, the Chargers held a 17-point lead over Tampa Bay shortly before halftime. LA allowed the lead to evaporate in the second half – losing the contest 38-31.

In Week 5, the Chargers looked to bounce back against New Orleans in the Superdome. LA took a 20-3 lead into the final minute of the first half – much like in their previous game against Tampa. The Bolts choked again, losing to Brees and the Saints 30-27 in OT.

After a Week 6 bye, LA returned to action in Week 7 against the Jags. The Chargers jumped out to a quick 16-0 lead in the second quarter – the 3rd-straight game in which they’ve led by 16+. Like the two games prior, LA blew the lead by the 3rd quarter. The Chargers looked up with 13:21 to go in the 3rd quarter and found themselves down 21-16 – their third-straight game with a huge blown lead.

The Chargers rallied back and won this game 39-29, but that doesn’t change the fact they had blown leads of 16+ in 3 straight contests.

Now comes the Chargers’ matchup with Denver in Week 8. Once again, LA find themselves up early. The Chargers lead the Broncos 24-3 midway through the 3rd quarter! This is way later in the game than usual for LA to be leading. Surely this 21-point cushion is safe, right?

31-30 … Chargers lose. Their fourth-straight game blowing a lead of 16+. This has never happened before in the history of the NFL.

9

The number of teams who scored at least 33 points in Week 7. This is the most high-scoring teams we’ve had in one week since Week 2 of this season when there were also 9 such teams. To find a week in more than 9 teams scored 33+ points, you’d have to go back all the way to Week 4 of 2018 in which 10 teams reached this mark.

Of the 9 teams to score 33+ in Week 7, 7 of them won. This gives these teams a SU record of 7-2 on the week. Since 2010, teams who score 33+ points are 860-96 SU (89.96%) and 812-131-15 ATS (86.1%).

39

The number of points scored by the Los Angeles Chargers in their 10-point win over Jacksonville in Week 7.

This is the high-scoring game of the year for LA, and data suggests the Chargers will not top this number in the 2020 season. For each of the past 4 seasons (2016-2019), the Chargers have had exactly one game in which they scored 39 points or more. All of these games have been wins for LA.

8

The number of consecutive losses by the 0-8 New York Jets. If you look up “stagnant franchise” in Webster’s you’ll find a tiny picture of Adam Gase losing control of the locker room.

New York finished 2019 on a strong note to pull their record up to 7-9 after starting 1-7. This made me think wow, the Jets are trending in the right direction. Watch out for the Jets in 2020!

I was wrong. The Jets can’t keep their good players around. They can’t keep games close. Their average point margin this season is -18. -18!!! New York loses by 3 touchdowns … on average!

Just let me throw this out there … there is still a mathematical possibility that the Jets take down the AFC East. Buffalo is currently atop the division at 6-2. The Jets could win out and finish 8-8. The current odds on Bovada for a Jets division win are (+100000) … that’s 1000 to 1! Am I endorsing this pick?? No! Could you brag relentlessly to your friends if you hit it? Absolutely!

 

Patrick Mahomes has more passing TDs today (5) than the #Jets have all season (4).

— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) November 1, 2020

7

The number of underdogs who won SU in Week 8. Dogs played to a 7-6 record SU in Week 8. This marks the first week in which underdogs had a winning record SU since Week 10 of 2019 in which dogs also went 7-6.

ATS records were also very lopsided this week. Dogs were 9-4 ATS – crushing their favored counterparts.

Records do not matter as much as overall profit. On the moneyline, this week’s dogs which won SU had an average line of (+173). Winning 7 games and losing 6 with these odds equates to $611 in profit.

On the spread, winning 9 and losing 4 with odds of (-110) equates to $460 in profit.

Week 8 was one for the dogs! Both SU and ATS dog backers are quite a bit richer today!

-1.9

The average point margin in Atlanta Falcons games this season. The Falcons are 2-6 despite playing in a bevy of close games and owning a better point differential than some winning teams.

Take a look at this chart which lists the worst 16 average margins in the league along with their records. Atlanta keeps their games closer than the Broncos, Lions, Browns, Eagles, and Raiders – all of whom have more wins than Atlanta.

So what does this mean? One, Atlanta is slightly on the unlucky side. Two, Atlanta can’t finish close games. They are good enough to hang around till the end but always come up short.

2

The number of Week 8 games in which less than 40 points total were scored. This is tied for the lowest number of low-scoring games of any week this season. There were only 2 such games back in Week 3 and again in Week 2. The high for sub-40 point games in one week this year is 4 – which we have reached thrice (Weeks 1, 6, and 7).

2020 NFL Playoffs Bracket

Using the NFL projections from FiveThirtyEight, we can piece together the playoff bracket for this upcoming postseason.

Remember, this year is different. 14 teams now make the field instead of the usual 12. Each conference is awarded just 1 bye and there are now 3 Wild Cards.

• Green Bay has usurped Seattle for the lone first-round bye in the NFC. The Packers, Bucs, and Seahawks are all projected to win their divisions at 11-5, but tiebreakers give the top spot to Green Bay. Seattle falls all the way to #3.
• The Pittsburgh Steelers are now favorites over Baltimore to win the AFC North. In last week’s projections, the Ravens were a 12-4 #2 seed with Pittsburgh a close second – the top Wild Card also at 12-4. Now the Steelers are projected to finish 13-3, putting them ahead of the Ravens, earning the #2 seed, and forcing Baltimore down into the #5 seed where they must travel for their Wild Card round game.
• The Eagles are now huge favorites in the NFC East due to the Cowboys injury problems. Philly projections have improved by one game. The Eagles are now set to be a 7-8-1 division winner – which has happened before and isn’t nearly as embarrassing as 6-9-1.

The biggest Week 9 matchups are

• 5-2 Ravens @ 5-2 Colts
• 5-3 Bears @ 5-2 Titans
• 6-1 Seahawks @ 6-2 Bills
• 5-2 Saints @ 5-2 Bucs on SNF