NFL Week 16: Previews, Odds, Predictions, and Picks on a Week of Cautious Over/Under Lines

Look out below! The Christmas holiday’s NFL point total lines are headed down to 20,000 leagues under the sea. This weekend’s “submarine” Over/Under markets on NFL action include O/U (37.5) total points expected between the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars, a total of (32.5) points handicapped for New Orleans and Cleveland’s ailing offenses, and mid-30s Over/Under numbers offered on potential mismatches in Baltimore and Nashville, all before Sunday and Monday’s matchups can roll around on the Week 16 NFL schedule. No game in Week 16 comes with a number higher than (50.5) on the O/U, and many are offered below (40).

Foul skies at outdoor venues is the angle behind many of the lines, in addition to Week 16 games in which even the favored team isn’t expected to score more than 2 touchdowns. The surging San Francisco 49ers are (-7) favorites over visiting Washington, but the kickoff’s point-total odds are offered at just O/U (37.5). Frigid, unforgiving conditions are the angle behind Buffalo-Chicago’s on Christmas Eve drawing a line of O/U (40.5).

Thursday Night Football was an easy “Under” win for sober gamblers despite the improvement of Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville, as Zack Wilson’s performance made it clear once and for all that Mike White will keep getting chances to start for the New York Jets as soon as he’s healthy. With other NFL clubs down to their emergency quarterbacks – including 2 teams from the NFC West – where are Week 16’s other “no-brainer” totals picks?

Let’s look first at an indoor venue – and a rare warm, welcoming field on a frigid holiday week.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (Saturday, December 24)

The Vikings’ record-breaking comeback over the Colts didn’t feel quite like the Buffalo Bills’ legendary win over the Houston Oilers, even though Minnesota’s comeback out-paces the Bills’ record by exactly a point. Buffalo’s 5-touchdown rally came with a series of good breaks and fabulous individual plays that caused the AFC playoff bout to seem imbued with a magic spell of inevitability. Kirk Cousins led a Vikings effort full of sloppy plays after a week of undermanned practices, and the pratfalls continued right up into Quarter 4.

The stubborn reliability of Cousins in picking up from INTs and lost fumbles to fire away again reminds wholly of Peyton Manning’s comeback wins as QB for Indianapolis. The only “inevitable” aspect of Sunday’s win was that Cousins is a warrior who never quits.

NFL records can be broken because a great kicker experiments with an extra hop-step and the ball bounces off a Motor City crossbar and through for 3 points to win a classic. Other times, the record is a product of sheer talent and determination. Loyal Minnesota fans who stuck around at halftime didn’t get to see an immaculate football clinic but should be equally excited to have a team that can be lousy for most of a day and still triumphs.

Now that the smoke has cleared, the Vikings look healthy compared to Week 15, and also refreshed on the betting board with a (-3.5) point spread against the Giants. What’s harder to understand at FanDuel is why the O/U line is resting at (47.5) total points, given Minnesota’s obvious issues on defense, and the need for Cousins and WR Justin Jefferson to play wide-open ball to keep up. New York Giants contests have averaged well over 40 points scored since October, and other NFL teams will envy the game’s conditions.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (47.5)

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears (Saturday, December 24)

A classic interconference bout on Christmas Eve presents a match-up of teams who have mastered power football in different eras of the NFL. The Bills are a dominating (-8.5) pick against the spread, but only high-rolling sharks appear to be confident in Buffalo to cover a wide margin-of-victory forecast in extremely chilly conditions at Soldier Field.

The Bills produce a lot of “handle” cash at sportsbooks, but are not drawing so much as 60% of the actual point-spread bets. Could it be that casual speculators are looking at Chicago as a spoiler after last weekend’s brave effort, while other high-end handicappers think that the Bears’ close defeat to Philly was just a blip during a downtrodden season?

The injury prognosis for Von Miller has gotten worse, and with a full ACL rehab chore for the NFL’s best pass rusher to undertake, we can’t expect Buffalo to simply terrorize Justin Fields and the Bears or any other ailing offense soon. The game’s (39.5) point-total line is conservative only because of the outdoor, windy field, and Chicago’s modest scoring.

The Bills’ saving grace as a point-spread pick may be that when Chicago loses to a superior team, they often tend to lose “bigly.” The Bears, in fact, don’t fit the common stereotype of NFL teams on long losing streaks about whom pundits say, “if only they won close ones.” The Bears have lost by a combined 4 touchdowns to the Packers, lost to the Giants substantially, lost to the Cowboys 49-29, and gotten blown out by the Jets just a fortnight prior to the 5-point loss that has the Buffalo-Chicago line sitting in single-digits.

WagerBop’s Pick: Bills ATS (-8.5)

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (Saturday, December 24)

The Chicago-Philadelphia outcome shouldn’t be affecting spreads across the board in Week 16, and likewise, quarterback Jalen Hurts of Philly ought not to be impacting Over/Under lines while inactive on game day. Hurts’ hopeful presence on the roster seems to be immobilizing the Philly at Dallas point-total line at O.U (46) points even.

Some may think that’s a reasonable number, except Hurts is still ailing from a shoulder sprain and almost certainly won’t be available for a Saturday kickoff this week. That leaves Philadelphia’s workmanlike, developmental backup QB Gardner Minshew to take the reins, just as Dallas tries to improve their game control to help a tiring host defense survive.

Both clubs are leaning heavily on the ground game in a division rivalry bout, one which Philly can lose and still win the NFC East easily, we’re expecting a less-intense Christmas Eve battle than what appears to be widely anticipated out of Big D.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (46)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, December 25)

A phrase that is used by scouts for cellar NFL teams near the end of a season comes about when a club’s hapless roster is just “going through the motions.” The Cardinals’ absolutely lifeless loss to the Broncos shows that Arizona is now sleepwalking even more so than poor Denver is. It’s a mark of how the Buccaneers’ stock has fallen that the Bucs (-6.5) are less than a TD-plus-conversion point spread favorite in Glendale on Christmas Day.

Cursorily speaking, Tom Brady’s team is in a slump, and in danger of falling behind in the meek NFC South with a 6-8 overall record. But it’s fundamental in the NFL that the teams with actual playoff chances out-motivate and outperform dead-in-the-water opponents who aren’t blood rivals, and the 4-10 Cardinals fit that bill perfectly.

The Cardinals’ speedy defense isn’t bruising enough to stop the Buccaneers’ pedestrian ground attack, not with little reason to produce a body-sacrificing effort in the trenches. Tom Terrific will be especially comfortable within a warm neutral-field type of setting, given that Arizona’s season-ticket holders are reckless in giving-away seats to traveling fans, and those loyal enough to show up in Red and White are fed up with ineffective head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Kyler Murray is injured and out for the season. With the ever-determined Brady in favorable down and distance for a change, this week’s Bucs should become still another Arizona foe to take a substantial halftime lead and never look back.

WagerBop’s Pick: Buccaneers ATS (-6.5)

Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts (Monday Night Football)

Monday Night Football’s pairing introduces similar themes on the point spread, as the Chargers’ inconsistent fall campaign weighs heavily on a (-3.5) sportsbook pick that should otherwise be a no-brainer. The Colts are competing with the Broncos for 2022-23’s mantle of most embarrassing belly-flop, and last weekend’s catastrophe in Minnesota is more of an exclamation point than an anomaly, given Indy’s hapless performances to date. What is it about the Chargers that have the public hesitating?

L.A. remains somewhat banged-up among the team’s finesse corps, with Mike Williams’ injury woes serving as a reminder that the WR position may never be as healthy as QB Justin Herbert would like it to be. The Chargers are just now peeking into the top-10 NFL offense rankings in spite of taking 600+ snaps from scrimmage already. Cornerback J.C. Jackson’s mysterious arrest could become a distraction, but the former All-Pro has missed the last few games with an injury, making it less of a shocker for MNF.

WagerBop defines those angles as the subtle problems of an 8-6 contender, while Indianapolis is already taking heat for the club’s questionable plans going forward, to say nothing of the pain of a cellar season. Jonathan Taylor is injured and will not appear against the L.A. Chargers, giving Herbert’s superior cast even more of an edge in what could be a very friendly “road” game similar to Tom Brady’s quiet arena in the desert.

The Colts just had the worst 2nd-half performance of any team in the NFL’s long history. It would take a 7-day upgrade to hang within a TD of the Chargers, and “upgrade” is not the terminology to describe the Colts’ free-fall into the pits of the AFC. The Bolts would be a terrific pick at (-6) points. The field-goal-sized spread is a steal.

WagerBop’s Pick: Chargers ATS (-3.5)