NFL Week 11 Gambling Odds: Chargers-Chiefs Line Movement Belies Wild Sunday Action

Are NFL gamblers paying too much attention to Saturday games rather than Sunday kickoffs?

There’s no question that college football is as unpredictable as it’s ever been. Sure, some pundits expected LSU to beat Alabama – but not to run-up a 20-point lead in a shoot-out while the Tigers did it. Oklahoma mounted a phenomenal comeback to beat Baylor this weekend, creating an in-play bonanza for halftime long-shot bettors. But that outcome occurred 2 games after OU dropped a surprise result to Kansas State…and a week after ISU took the Sooners to the brink.

Hate to break it to everyone, but despite some unorthodox gold-rush swells of action on various NFL markets, the National Football League is simply not that unpredictable in 2019-20.

Didn’t we know the Raiders would be OK eventually under Jon Gruden? Maybe not the folks who went overboard criticizing Derek Carr following last year’s struggles (as in, 90% of the media and 99% of Twitter users) but the sane and rational world was just waiting for a quality HC and an improved roster to turn things around.

Who expected the New England Patriots to suck now that Tom Brady can’t toss it around and take punishment like he used to? Perhaps those wishful thinkers who hate the Pats no matter what. But those who have paid attention know that The Hoodie always finds a way to win.

The cross-current of naivete and over-reaction vs cold showers from veteran high-rollers has led to some wild NFL betting…and some not-so-wild NFL betting in Week 11.

The Dallas Cowboys began as slight favorites against the host Detroit Lions, but word from Motor City that Matt Stafford’s injury is as bad as initially feared has helped the point spread shoot in the Silver Star’s direction. Arizona opened as a 2-TD + 2 XP underdog vs the San Francisco 49ers, but the spread has narrowed to (+10). Over/Under lines have been flying high or sinking low after opening at what felt like logical numbers.

But Las Vegas lines for neutral-site Monday Night Football between the L.A. Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs have been holding quite steady – at least the point spread and the moneyline.

Don’t believe “experts” who say not to act on a market once the line has moved significantly. Taking advantage of public betting pressure and subsequent line-shifts is how countless winners have earned their daily bread. But there’s no question that it’s important to know when the changing numbers are logical and when they are not.

Let’s look at 3 upcoming contests this Sunday (and the MNF clash on scroll) and try to determine whether the gambling public is getting it right or wrong – or is stuck with a hung jury.

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions

Matt Stafford’s extended injury-absence has put Detroit’s currently 3-5-1 campaign on life-support. Meanwhile, gamblers are flocking to take the Dallas Cowboys’ line-to-cover for this Sunday’s visit to Ford Field, pushing the Silver Star’s spread to (-7) from just -2.5, while the Over/Under has dipped all the way to (47.5).

The Cowboys’ frustrating trend of not being able to beat anyone outside of the NFC East continues. The Vikings were able to contain Ezekiel Elliott last week, holding him to 47 yards on 20 carries, but the biggest media story was Jason Garrett’s questionable play-calling down the stretch.

With the game on the line, Garrett opted to force-feed Zeke instead of passing the football with Dak Prescott…who was approaching 400 yards through the air. Minnesota had no answer for WR Amari Cooper, who finished the game with an 11-147-1 stat line. Cooper’s 7 TD’s matches a career-high, and he is well on his way to his best season in his 5-year NFL career if he stays healthy. But the Cowboys didn’t mix it up enough in the 2nd half (or give the hot hand enough touches) and paid a price.

Injury issues are plaguing both teams. While the Lions will be without Stafford at least 1more week, the Cowboys are dealing with a rash of new wounds. The right side of the Dallas offensive line took a blow last week as T La’el Collins and G Zack Martin each left the game early, and neither has participated in practice this week.

Is bettors’ confidence in the Cowboys misplaced? Detroit has been pretty bad vs the run at times in 2019, but Dallas will have 2 huge holes to fill in the blocking plan if Collins and Martin are unable to give it a go. Cooper is also day-to-day and has a tougher match-up to deal with in Week 11 than against a Minnesota secondary that was without CB Trae Waynes. The WR will be locked-up with Darius Slay Jr. all afternoon.

Jeff Driskel is in line for another start for Detroit. Meanwhile, joining Stafford on the injury report is backup RB Ty Johnson, who had replaced the injured Kerryon Johnson. Look for Bo Scarborough of Alabama Crimson Tide fame to get some touches.

Look for Detroit to have surprising success on offense early, and for Dallas to mount a comeback later-on.

Pick: Over 

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders

Speculators are about ready to give up on the 2019 Cincinnati Bengals showing any signs of life. The winless Bengals (+10.5) opened as a TD-sized underdog for a visit to the Oakland Raiders this Sunday afternoon – and the point spread has moved into double-digits.

Cincy’s schedule doesn’t get easier in Week 11. The 5-4 Raiders have been fantastic while winning back-to-back games against the Chargers and the Lions.

Just as I suspected in late summer, critics of Derek Carr had a field day for a while – and now they’re nice and quiet as Carr is putting together his best season as a pro. The much-maligned QB is completing over 70% of his passes and has tossed 14 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions. His 228 3rd-down pass attempts without an INT is the longest such streak in the NFL in the last 25 years.

Raider skipper Jon Gruden has found a gem in rookie tailback Josh Jacobs. The 1st-round pick out of Alabama has been instrumental over the last couple of weeks, rushing 42 times for 191 yards and 3 TD’s. On the season, Jacobs has found pay dirt 7 times, and is averaging 90.1 rushing yards per game.

Oakland’s defense is also getting an unexpected boost from the play of a journeyman lineman who has bounced around 4 different teams over his 7 year career. Defensive end Benson Mayowa is now on his 2nd stint in Oakland, but leads the team with 7 sacks this season.

Gamblers going all-in on the hosts are missing a key point of psychology, and a “predictably unpredictable” thread in the NFL.

Players are fans too, and they can get overconfident when they observe dreadful weakness in an opponent. I’m expecting Cincy to make noise early before the Silver & Black realizes there’s a football game going on.

Pick: Oakland in-play (halftime) 

New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles

The 8-1 Patriots will be facing the Eagles for the first time since Philadelphia hoisted the hardware after its 41-33 upset victory in the Super Bowl nearly 4 years ago. Both teams have had an extra week to prepare for each other as each enjoyed a bye in Week 10, though the Pats limped-into the break with a 17-point loss to the Ravens.

It wasn’t a total loss for The Hoodie’s gang. Tom Brady has forged an instant connection with newly-acquired receiver Mohamed Sanu. Brady targeted Sanu 14 times against Baltimore, and the pair connected 10 times for 81 yards and a touchdown.

You can probably expect that trend to continue. In fact, it also seems as though Brady may be losing confidence in everyone else in the WR corps besides veteran 1st-option Julian Edelman.

On top of a formerly-stout New England defense getting somewhat exposed by Lamar Jackson, the Patriots are saddled with a special teams dilemma. Bill Belichick has been spoiled with Stephen Gostkowki as his kicker, but an injury has thrown a wrench in an otherwise-solid FG unit.

Mike Nugent had a brief stint handling the kicking duties, but after going 2-for-4 and missing 2 FG’s inside of 40 yards against the Browns 3 weeks ago his days in New England came to an end. Nugent has been replaced with former Jets kicker Nick Folk, who had been out of the NFL since 2017.

Philadelphia is coming around after a slow start, having won back-to-back tough games against Buffalo and Chicago. Running back Jordan Howard has been quietly effective, rushing for 178 yards on 42 carries and finding pay dirt multiple times in 8 quarters, but his status is up in the air for this weekend.

Pick: Pats to cover (-4.5) 

Kansas City Chiefs vs L.A. Chargers (MNF)

No group of bettors appear to be going all-in on Monday night’s contest in Mexico City, save for the Over/Under total (52.5) moving upwards by more than a field goal since opening – largely thanks to star signal-caller Patrick Mahomes returning to the field (and hopefully to full health) with the Chiefs.

Last year’s scheduled NFL game in Mexico City was moved back to the United States due to poor field conditions, but there has been no word of such a problem this year.

Los Angeles had won 2 straight heading into last week, but the Bolts were handed a tough divisional loss at the hands of the Raiders. Oakland picked-off Philip Rivers 3 times, returning 1 wayward throw for a touchdown, and posted a 26-24 victory. Rivers has now thrown 10 INT’s this season through 10 games.

It’s the 1st time in a while that a Charger loss appears to rest solely on Rivers’ talented shoulders – L.A. gained more yards on offense and dominated time-of-possession by almost 10 minutes, but the QB’s turnovers made it impossible to prevail.

The Chiefs are getting healthy. Even in a 35-32 losing effort last week against the Tennessee Titans, fans were overjoyed as Mahomes returned without skipping a beat. The 3rd-year QB threw for 446 yards and 3 TDs after missing 2 games with a dislocated kneecap. CB Kendall Fuller returned for the defense, and OG Andrew Wylie also returned to help shore-up the offensive line. Andy Reid expects to have OT Eric Fisher back for the contest below the border, solidifying an offensive line that the high-powered Chiefs heavily rely on.

Nobody is happier to have the 1st-string passer (and dual-threat) back in action than WR Tyreek Hill, who also missed some time this season with an arm injury. Hill put up 140 yards and a TD with Matt Moore as his QB 2 weeks ago against Minnesota, but Mahomes targeted him 19 times last week as Hill was able to post another terrific stat line and set a franchise record for production in back-to-back games.

The defense has struggled at times (as usual) and getting DT Chris Jones mended and back into the fold has been a key addition. Jones has posted 3 sacks and forced a fumble in 8 quarters since returning. DE Frank Clark also returned vs Tennessee and was able to notch his 4th sack of the season.

Rivers might be OK at home against a contender with less of a pass rush, but you don’t want to pick against a club and a defense that’s trending-up – especially on a tight spread and when playing against a quarterback who’s spraying the pigskin under pressure.

Pick: Chiefs (-4) or Under