NFL Sunday Tips and Betting Guide: SNF Prediction and Odds on the Rams-49ers Rematch

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, October 30th)

Some pundits (like myself, for instance) have wondered when the 5-2 Cowboys would begin to be highly rated in a year in which they’re winning, as opposed to the usual trope of the Silver Star being overrated in lean years. It has been a strange season narrative around Big D, as a club that did not lose when it was expected to has bookmakers and analysts wondering where to go with the numbers. The media and Las Vegas alike have a vested interest in seeing Dallas at the top of the betting board and the power rankings, and yet since Week 2 there’s been a sense of “it’s too good to be true” surrounding the team’s bid in a tough division.

The Dallas Cowboys’ match-up on Sunday against the visiting Chicago Bears may have changed the conversation at last. Dak Prescott’s team is a whopping (-9.5) favorite on the point spread, and close to 1-to-5 or (-500) on the moneyline. Casual fans glancing at FanDuel Sportsbook might think the Bears are a total patsy…but that’s not quite the case.

The Bears actually come into Week 8 having prevailed 33-14 in New England to reach 3-4. Justin Fields served as an excellent dual-threat as Chicago controlled the ball on Monday, and the visiting defense fared so well against The Hoodie that New England announced another QB change this week back to Mac Jones.

Why are the Bears such a marked underdog at Dallas? There are no catastrophic injury woes plaguing the improving Monsters of the Midway; in fact, the injuries in Arlington are still a bigger deal even though Dak is back and playing well. Above the plain plausibility that the Bears will cover ATS by its own merits, or even win outright, there’s a likelihood that the Cowboys are not even concerned with its margin of victory in Week 8 so long as Dallas gets the win. If Chicago does fail to rise to the challenge thanks to a short week of practice following last round’s MNF contest, and the Cowboys hold a 14-point lead with 3:00 to play expect the Cowboy defense to allow a mop-up drive while being conservative.

WagerBop’s Pick: Bears ATS (+9.5)

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints (Sunday, October 30th)

Las Vegas is a die-hard football club. The Raiders endured coaching scandals, off-field tragedies, and more to produce a noble run at the end of last season. Therefore, another poor season start wasn’t about to finish off the brave Silver & Black in 2022-23. Vegas QB Derek Carr’s team has threatened to roar out of the cellar by defeating Denver, Houston, and nearly the Kansas City Chiefs in the last 3 games.

There are still negative storylines in New Orleans this season, or else the Saints (-102) wouldn’t be slight underdogs against a Raiders team that’s 0-3 away from Sin City. The quarterback merry-go-round may not be over yet for Sunday’s 2-5 hosts, as veteran Andy Dalton is losing his grip on the NFL game, and the football itself, while Taysom Hill remains a more-efficient spot player than a full-time starting quarterback.

However, if FanDuel’s (-1.5) line on Las Vegas (not to be confused with a “Las Vegas line”) is illustrative of the Saints’ sloppy offense, then why is there such a healthy (49.5) line for point-total picks on the contest? Yes, it is always possible for Carr to have a nice passing day against a vulnerable team in an indoor setting. But then again Vegas hasn’t been scoring enough points to win on the road since Week 1. If Jameis Winston returns to play in the game, he will not be asked to run a sugar-huddle right away. Should New Orleans turn to their option series again, that’ll milk the clock … and it’s not likely that every wayward pass will be intercepted for a TD even if Dalton made it seem that way against the Arizona Cardinals.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (49.5)

New York Jets at New England Patriots (Sunday, October 30th)

The New York Jets’ (+2.5) point spread and (+118) moneyline picks in Week 8 represent the most obvious error of bookmakers headed into a fresh NFL weekend. It is correct that the Jets have been cursed for literal decades by having to travel the short distance to Foxboro to face HC Bill Belichick and the Patriots. The Jets’ futures betting odds of winning the AFC East (+2000) or of making the playoffs (+144) have shot upward in the wake of the team’s Week 7 victory over the Denver Broncos, yet unfortunately, that victory came at the cost of key offensive pieces in RB Breece Hall and OL Alijah Vera-Tucker. The Hoodie will game-plan to punish those newly-wrought gaps in the upstart New York depth chart.

Overruling such individual match-up concerns is that the Patriots are making a “throw in the towel” style switch back to Mac Jones at QB, in spite of the injury woes and quarterback controversy causing problems for the Alabama product. QB Bailey Zappe caused a sensation before quickly flaming out Jeremy Lin-style, leaving Boston fans adrift without a savior behind center. Belichick would have a better chance of eliminating distractions and getting New England ready to play if the game wasn’t in Beantown.

WagerBop’s Pick: Jets (+118)

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (Sunday, October 30th)

Could the Rams and 49ers be headed for a “ghostly” battle for the NFC West crown in 2022-23? The first rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game led to a predictable finish, and a 24-9 victory for the 49ers earlier this year, but at least 1 of the 2 teams looked fairly impressive in the outing. Weeks later, there’s concern that the division’s finest teams are simply not legitimate Super Bowl 57 contenders at present, as the NFC East and other quartets emerge with excellent W/L records while the NFC West lags. Fittingly, moneyline and spread odds are cautious, with last season’s champs taking (+1.5) points.

San Fran can vaguely recall when Green Bay arrived for a consolation game of sorts in the 1990s, soon after each team had climbed the ladder in the NFC playoffs, but with both clubs having a bummer year in the aftermath. If a newbie had seen only the Packers-49ers game from that day—which turned into a thrilling shoot-out—they might have assumed that the teams were still in top form and forging a rivalry as February hopefuls. Team owners instead were half-hoping for losses and higher draft picks.

Thankfully, the NFC West of 2022-23 has not gotten quite that gloomy—yet. But as Vince Lombardi said, no matter what else happens, teams and their tendencies tend to stay the same. FanDuel’s relatively standard Over/Under line of (42.5) points for the Rams vs. the 49ers overlooks that Sunday’s battle could look a lot like 2021-22’s NFC Championship Game, with the exception that the teams are now fighting to survive rather than advance.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (42.5)

Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills (Sunday Night Football)

Will the Pack stem the tide of a sour season in the toughest venue imaginable? Bookmakers at FanDuel are giving the Packers (+10.5) points on the spread prior to a prime-time kickoff with a (47.5) Over/Under line. Given what Green Bay has done—or hasn’t done—over the past few weekends, those numbers may be a bit lavish.

Speculators have doubted the ’22 Packers since early in September, following a lopsided Week 1 loss to the Vikings. The Packers began the process of rebuilding trust with sportsbook sharks with a 17-point win over Chicago in Week 2, then scored a maiden statement win of the season by upsetting Tampa Bay and Tom Brady. A loss to the New York Giants in London cooled the momentum off, and Rodgers’ offense has turned into a series of poor performances in games to follow. The Packers were a 12-to-1 summer betting pick to win Super Bowl 57. After the team’s pale, flat showing in a defeat to the Washington Commanders in Week 7, that number is now below the league average at (+3300).

The Bills (-10.5) against the spread is a pick that runs into the same issue as the Cowboys (-9.5) this Sunday. How do we know that contending teams who’re settling in for the long haul are going to be concerned with style points if leading by 10 or 13 points in the 4th quarter? NFL competition is not the FBS, and there’s no “playoff committee” available to penalize powerful Buffalo for beating Green Bay 20-10 in a yawner.

Buffalo is subject to strange lapses of form on offense, just as Green Bay has been subject to an enduring slump with the ball in hand. It is strange that a handicapping community so obsessed with “percentage chances” is offering an O/U line of nearly 50 points for a pair of opponents who remain sturdier and more consistent on defense than on offense. It is easy imagining a sloppy game as the 5-1 Bills look ahead to a key AFC battle with New York, and the Packers fight desperately to hold on despite Rodgers’ newfound imprecision. Gamblers should find it harder to imagine Rodgers suddenly regaining his 2010s form, Bills linebacker Von Miller having a poor night, or Buffalo failing to run the rock, utilizing Josh Allen’s dual threat, with a 1-2 touchdown lead in the latter half.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (47.5)