NFL Prime-Time Betting Guide and Picks: SNF and MNF Odds, Lines, and Week 5 Predictions

The timing of this morning’s post may not suitable for a pick on the London game (it would have to be a 2nd half live-betting prediction) but the happenstance of an NFL game occurring before more than half of the English Premier League has completed its round is a little different. How could it affect bettors on Sunday?

Each sport’s industry is tied into the hardcore fan’s fanaticism (“NBA All Day!”) but the majority of sports viewers (and speculators) watch multiple kinds of events all weekend. If all they’ve seen is a few sparing college football games or High School pigskin games instead of the typical wake-up-to-UK-football-songs experience, could it make gridirons seem slightly more predictable than they are?

Even the stress of gambling on an NFL or FBS game doesn’t always compare to making a Premier League pick and breathlessly watching the ball ping-pong around the box. The absence of a lot of soccer on TV as of yet could make sportsbook users feel like the NFL week will be tidy. But we know that some “stanky” performances and upsets are likely to occur as always. At the same time, not having to watch a bunch of volatile bets play-out in the morning (or on Saturday morning) means that pigskin gamblers could be bolder this time around.

To wit, speaking of prop bets, we’re sure a lot of people made overly enthusiastic picks on Alabama-to-cover the halftime spread against Texas A&M on Saturday. Which other football lines are susceptible to getting skewed by the hype prior to the entire sports-calendar kicking in and leaving us to become more cautious in a sea of odds/outcomes?

There’s no better place to begin than Buffalo to emphasize the theme of overwound gamblers making spontaneous picks. If we waited more patiently, there’s plenty of TV sports upcoming to help remind everyone how faulty very exaggerated spreads can be all around the globe.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (Sunday, October 9)

Buffalo-Pittsburgh is offered by FanDuel Sportsbook at an inflated spread of (-14) points taken from QB Josh Allen’s favorites. It may be hard for the sportsbook’s users to bring themselves to pick against Buffalo especially following the Bills’ remarkable comeback win in Week 4 over Baltimore, even with a 2-touchdown buffer. As we will debate later, though, the Ravens’ coaches are more to blame for how the Buffalo-Baltimore game turned out than the Buffalo offense is responsible for having dazzled their opponents. If few plays had gone differently and the Bills had lost their comeback bid, then the Week 5 odds and lines would look different than they do now, without anything really changing except for the slight uptick in confidence that a team can enjoy following a comeback triumph.

Following Week 1’s overtime win Just about everything has gone wrong for Pittsburgh. The Pittsburgh defense just is not what it once was in bygone eras, and the Steelers have tried Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett at QB in Week 4’s loss, with nominal results for the former veteran and a disastrous 3 INTs out of Pickett.

But still, “don’t go gently” is the Pittsburgh Steelers’ motto in a losing skid according to Mike Tomlin, and a conventional NFL play-calling team with stopgap QBs is often able to stay within 2 TDs on the scoreboard through force-of-will and tactics alone. The Buffalo offense needs to play well for 45+ minutes of the game to generate enough points to make covering the point spread any kind of likely prospect. Oftentimes the Bills do not do that early in the year.

WagerBop’s Pick: Steelers ATS (+14)

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, October 9)

WagerBop argued prior to Week 1 that even the Big Toaster’s well-managed conditions might not keep the Cardinals and Chiefs from playing a slovenly, sweating game in the early September “extended preseason”. This week, that same Glendale weather (and shield in case of a freak monsoon) is one of several angles that make Sin City’s O/U (48.5) too conservative in what ought to be a high-scoring contest.

Arizona’s defense has quietly improved after a feeble start to the season, limiting superstars like Christian McCaffery and Cooper Kupp. Nevertheless, the 2-2 Cardinals may not be ready for Jalen Hurts’ dual threat on 3rd down. After comfortably defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 4 to improve to 4-0, the team’s odds of winning Super Bowl 57 are the NFL’s 3rd-best. Losing DE Derek Barnett has detracted from the strength of the team’s pass rush, but heading into Week 5 Philly’s stock is hotter than ever.

While the Big Red goes unable to stop Hurts on at least a few TD drives, Arizona’s feast-or-famine offense will open up and generate either another exciting comeback bid or turnovers that help Philly, potentially with ease, win a game that goes well over the Over/Under line.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (48.5)

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday Night Football)

Baltimore had a golden opportunity to put Buffalo away, but could not add to a 20-point tally in the opening half. The play selection for Lamar Jackson in Week 5 bore too much likeness to the 2014 offense of the San Francisco 49ers when the “other” head coach Harbaugh tried to make Colin Kaepernick into a commonplace spread-offense field general. Baltimore’s option game cannot be a “package” while still having the desired effect on defense by the 4th quarter. Baltimore’s “cheap” points in the early going did not help a 5-wide playbook produce anything but costly mistakes as the Bills bounced back.

In the meantime, the Cincinnati Bengals are only a (+146) underdog for Sunday Night Football in Baltimore, and QB Joe Burrow’s team is playing like a squad that’s got more conquests in their back-pocket prior to autumn coming into full swing.

However, the host Ravens are a solid pick ATS for several game-control reasons. A special playbook, albeit ill-conceived, was cooked up by Harbaugh to try to fly around and out-pace the pass rush of the Bills. Against a more balanced defensive approach this weekend, we expect John Harbaugh to return to the triple-option game plan that has served Baltimore well for years. That gives the Ravens a possible advantage in the Red Zone in a world of finesse goal-line plays, and makes a “winning TD” a much more likely in a tied scenario than a winning field-goal.

WagerBop’s Pick: Ravens ATS (-3)

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Monday Night Football)

The signs are familiar when a team can hang close in every game, but cannot get over the hump in Q4, though the Silver & Black did reach into the win column last week with a win against glorified Denver.

The injury woes of Las Vegas have helped Kansas City draw a (-7.5) favorite’s point spread for the division rivals’ bout at Arrowhead. But prior to Week 4’s big win, the Chiefs had their own episodes.

Could the Over/Under make a tighter pick than KC-to-cover and win by 8 or more? Las Vegas has permitted an average of 25+ points to the Cardinals, Titans, and Broncos, making it improbable that Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs are not likely to score 30 or more points against the opposing Raiders.

Rivalry games tend to be extremely tight until and unless 1 unit shows up incapable to compete with another, and you cannot like the Raiders’ chances to counter-attack given how stern the Chiefs’ front-7 was in Week 4 against the run. QB Tom Brady disregarded the KC run defense and tossed 59 passes but handed off just a few times in Tampa’s loss to Mahomes’ club. Las Vegas QB Derek Carr does not have the moxie or the supporting cast to respond as Brady did with a KC lead at halftime.

The Raiders prepare year-round for scrapheap battles against Denver and KC, but last week’s AFC West tilt ended in a 9-point victory.

WagerBop’s Pick: Chiefs ATS (-7.5)